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Editorials - 23-06-2022

The Finance Minister should do away with all the confusing tax slabs in one fell swoop

In December 2018, the late Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, announced that the 28% GST slab, which he called the “dying slab”, would be phased out, except for luxury items. India, he said, would eventually have just two slabs: 5% and a standard rate between 12% and 18% (apart from exempt items). Tragically, he passed away less than a year before fulfilling his assurances.

Simplicity is not easy to achieve. Great sages, artists and designers have preached simplicity. It was the mantra of Henry David Thoreau, who influenced Mahatma Gandhi.

The introduction of a uniform GST was a watershed moment in India since the country’s earlier regime of taxes and cesses, both at the Centre and the States, was a big barrier to free trade and economic growth and was a cesspool of corruption.

Complex and confusing

However, GST is still a complicated tax regime with different slabs. It is not easy to comprehend or comply with, and is open to interpretation, harassment and avoidable litigation. To simplify it, Finance Ministry officials must be reminded of KISS.

KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) is a well-known acronym and an accepted credo in business. Attributed to Lockheed aircraft engineer Kelly Johnson, it was meant to urge engineers to keep aircraft design so simple that even a stupid person would be able to repair the aircraft with ordinary tools on the combat field.

Bureaucracy, the world over, is usually oblivious to the KISS principle. An Amazon ad boasts that it sells more than a crore of different products, besides myriad services. More categories are added every day. In this context, asking bureaucrats to identify and categorise all products and services for differential tax slabs in the GST regime is the surest way to get into a muddle.

Empirical data from across the world on the benefits of a unified single tax is incontrovertible. So, an unambiguous directive to the bureaucracy is necessary from the ruling dispensation to come up with just two categories: goods eligible for zero tax and goods that will fall under a single rate, say 10% or 12%. That means everything except those specifically exempt, is taxed.

This needs bold and clear reformist thinking at the political level. Imposing a high GST in some areas does not make sense. ‘Sin’ taxes, for instance, are at cross purposes with the government’s policy of generating growth and creating jobs under ‘Make in India’. A typical 300-room five-star hotel generates direct employment for around 500 people of whom 90% are waiters, housekeeping staff, front desk staff, security and concierge staff, besides cooks, financial and clerical staff. There are a host of others employed in associated services such as the spa, gift shops and swimming pool. The hotel also generates indirect employment in ancillary areas: it buys bed linen, furnishings, rugs and carpets, air conditioners, cutlery, electrical fittings and furniture, and consumes enormous quantities of food produce. All these generate jobs and income for farmers, construction contractors, artisans and other manufacturers. Five-star hotels also generate foreign exchange by attracting rich tourists and visitors. So, it’s unwise to tax these hotels to death.

Similarly, high taxes on air-conditioners, air conditioned restaurants, chocolates and luxury cars create an economic ripple effect downstream, in a complex web of businesses that have symbiotic relationships. The effect finally reaches down to the bottom of the employment pyramid.

The plan must be to figure out how to rev up the economy by making the rich and upper middle class spend and move more people up the value chain in order that more chocolates and ACs and automobiles are bought by them, instead of designing a tax system that keeps these products out of the new consumer class’s reach.

Instead, the current regime is plain confusing. At an Iyengar Bakery, GST on bread is zero, but the vegetable sandwich is in the 5% tax slab, hitting the vegetable grower directly. The GST on buns is zero, but buns with a few raisins fall in the 5% slab. The GST on masala peanuts, murukku and namkeen is 12%. And the GST on cakes and chocolates is 18%. The same lack of logic applies to taxes on wine, rum and beer, which generate large-scale employment and are the backbone of grape and sugarcane farming and the cocoa industry. The ancient art of toddy tapping in villages, a large employment generator and income booster in rural areas, was killed by unthinking politicians and bureaucrats and replaced with Indian-made foreign liquor. Imagine killing the wine industry in France? It would be sacrilege.

In the automobile sector, the GST on electric cars, tractors, cycles, bikes, low-end and luxury cars ranges anywhere from 5% to 50%. The sale of automobiles is the barometer of an economy.

The confusion has given rise to several disputes. ID Fresh Food, for instance, which makes ready-to-eat foods like chapatis, rotis, parotas and sells various types of idli and dosa batter, appealed against a GST ruling of the Authority for Advance Rulings (Karnataka bench). The ruling had called for a distinction between rotis and parotas and had subjected parotas to a higher GST rate of 18% since the food item did not fall under the category of “khakhra, plain chapati, or roti” (which fall under the 5% slab) and needed to be processed or heated for further consumption. Can a country aspire to be a $5 trillion economy if its taxmen turn gourmet chefs and get bogged down by researching the differences between various kinds of food items prepared with dough?

Then there are items that are exempt from GST. Petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel are not under the purview of GST, but come under Central excise and State taxes. Central excise duties and varying State taxes contribute over 50% of the retail price of petrol and diesel, probably the highest in the world barring banana republics. There is distrust between the States and the Centre on revenue sharing. There is also anger at the Centre for riding roughshod over the States’ autonomy and disregarding the federal structure of the Constitution. Opposition-ruled States point fingers at Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who ironically accused the United Progressive Alliance regime of trampling on the rights of the States while he was Gujarat Chief Minister.

Use the KISS principle

The low-cost airline model is successful because of the KISS principle. All the frills such as food, freebies and assigned seats are dispensed with. Single class seating, point-to-point travel with no code sharing, direct Internet booking, no middlemen. etc. have sustained this model. It’s an Udupi self-service hotel in the sky.

The Finance Minister should take a cue from the Prime Minister, who hinted at major reforms in the aftermath of COVID-19, and do away with all the confusing tax slabs in one fell swoop. She can then usher in a truly single low tax regime along with a list of exempt items. That will ensure compliance, widen the tax net, improve ease of doing business, boost the economy, create jobs, increase tax collections and reduce corruption as witnessed in many countries – a move that will be both populist and well-regarded by economists.

G.R. Gopinath is the founder of Air Deccan



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The divergent outcomes in structural transformation in the global South, i.e., India, China and S.E. Asia, are illustrative

India has been in a phase of jobless growth for at least two decades now, coupled with rising poverty and discontent in rural areas. The ongoing protests against the Agnipath programme, agitations against farm laws a year before, and agitation for reservation by agriculture castes are all arguably an outcome simmering discontent due to this jobless economic growth. Why could India not generate a pattern of growth that produces jobs and inclusive development in the way most of the East Asian countries have done? Caste, which is mostly confined to politics, could be among the answers, a structural factor that impedes economic transformation in India.

Indeed, there is a link between economic transformation and caste in India, which is often missed by academics. In contemporary literature too, caste enters as a post-facto category in understanding inequalities in economic and social outcomes when the fact is that caste is central to economic transformation itself. Caste through its rigid social control and networks facilitates economic mobility for some and erects barriers for others by mounting disadvantages on them. Caste also shapes the ownership pattern of land and capital and simultaneously regulates access to political, social, and economic capital too.

Ways it impedes

There are three ways in which caste impedes the economic transformation in India: ownership and land inequality related to productivity failure within the farm sector; elite bias in higher education and historical neglect of mass education, and caste-based entry barriers and exclusive networks in the modern sector.

If Arthur Lewis, a Nobel Prize winner for development economics, emphasised accumulation of physical capital for economic transformation in the developing world, Theodore William Schultz, an American economist who shared the prize with him the same year in 1979, underscored the need for human capital for better transition to modern sectors. For him, an educated workforce enhances productivity while entrepreneurship ability is increased through education, training, experience and so on.

Hence, the divergent outcomes in structural transformation between countries in the global South, particularly India, China and South East Asia, is due to these three factors. All the nations which succeeded in achieving inclusive growth in the Global South had land reforms combined with human capital, invested in infrastructure by promoting capitalism from below and began industrialisation in the rural sector. Only India lost on all three counts.

Land ownership, productivity

India has one of the highest land inequalities in the world today. Unequal distribution of land was perpetuated by British colonial intervention that legalised a traditional disparity. Some castes were assigned land ownership at the expense of others by the British for its administrative practices. The British inscribed caste in land governance categories and procedures that still underpin post-colonial land ownership pattern in India. They made an artificial distinction between proper cultivators who belong to certain castes and those labourers — lower caste subjects who cultivated granted/gifted lands (Panchami, etc.) that have institutionalised caste within the land revenue bureaucracy. The prescribed categories and practices have entrenched caste inequality in land ownership. Even the subsequent land reform that took place after India’s independence largely excluded Dalits and lower castes. It emboldened and empowered mainly intermediate castes at the expense of others in rural India.

Even the Green Revolution that brought changes in the farm sector did not alter land inequality as it was mostly achieved through technological intervention. Though India has certainly seen surplus food production since then, the castes that were associated with this land pattern and benefited from the Green Revolution tightened their social control over others in rural India. Land still defines social status and pride in many parts of rural India.

While land has lost its productive capacity since the 1990s, thanks to the real estate and construction turn in the Indian economy, it still works as a source of inheritance, family lineage and speculative capital. In that sense, the economic reforms of the 1990s were a watershed moment. The farm lobby lost its power. Even those who made surplus in farm sectors could not transform their status from cultivators to capitalist entrepreneurs in the modern sectors, except a few castes in western and southern India. Those castes that had a stake in agriculture did not benefit from the economic reforms for two reasons — historical neglect of education and the entry barriers erected by the upper castes in modern sectors. The recent agitations by the Jats in Haryana and Punjab, the Marathas in Maharashtra and the Patels in Gujarat, demanding, among other things, reservation for their castes in higher education and formal jobs exemplify this new trend.

Neglect of education

If strong growth in productivity within the farm sector is crucial for sustained economic growth, an educated workforce is equally necessary to move to the modern sectors. India failed on both accounts. The Indian education system has been suffering from an elite bias since colonial times. British colonialists educated tiny groups of elites, largely from upper castes, for their own administrative purpose.

As political scientist Myron Weiner had argued, India suffered from caste bias in education. Although the Indian Constitution guaranteed free and compulsory education under its directive principles, it was hardly translated into practice. Instead, attention was given to higher education for the elites. Hence, inequality in access to education got translated into inequality in other economic domains including wage differentials in India. Indian elites in fact sustained their position at the top by denying education to a substantial proportion of the population till positive-discrimination policies were implemented in higher education. India’s turn toward service growth — particularly its claims of emerging as a leader in software development and a natural inheritor of soft power — is arguably an outcome of this historic elite bias in education.

In contrast, Chinese and other East Asian countries invested in basic education and gradually shifted towards higher education. Their success in manufacturing is a direct outcome of the investment in human capital. One can find such trends even in the contemporary global labour market mirroring this skill spectrum; as South East Asia and China captured low-end manufacturing jobs, India largely concentrated in high-end technology jobs. China taking over India in manufacturing is due to this neglect in human capital formation. Here, a comparison with China is illustrative. Yasheng Huang, a Chinese economist, argues that rural entrepreneurship was able to grow out of the traditional agricultural sector on a massive scale. Rural India, in contrast, hampered by a poor endowment of human capital, could not start entrepreneurial ventures even remotely on the scale of the Chinese.

Barrier to entrepreneurship

India did not witness such capitalism from below except in a few cases. Caste shaped policy outcomes, including India’s highly unequal land reform and lack of public provision of education and health, which in turn erected barriers to economic diversification. Caste also worked in building social networks. Castes that were already in control of trading and industrial spaces resisted the entry of others. Even those who had economic surplus in farm sectors could not invest in non-farm modern sectors. Social inequalities have mounted barriers for economic transition. Agrarian capital could not move into modern sectors due to these roadblocks. Even the relative success in South India is being attributed to the ‘Vaishya vacuum’ — an absence of traditional merchant castes. In contrast such a transition took place in South East Asia, where diversification into urban enterprises by agrarian capitalists was possible.

Truncated transformation is partly an outcome of this interface between caste and economy. For caste is not a residual variable, but is an active agent which stifles economic transformation.

Kalaiyarasan A. is an Assistant Professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies (MIDS), India and a non-resident fellow at the Center for Contemporary South Asia, Brown University



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Political or geopolitical expediency or cultural chauvinism should not be allowed to undercut India’s health interests

Bolstering health human resources has been a prime focus of many of the Union government’s recent initiatives and policy pronouncements. The Union health Budget 2022 made handsome appropriations for the same, much in line with the Fifteenth Finance Commission’s recommendations which laid a conspicuous emphasis on utilising existing capacities at the district and sub-district levels to train different cadres of health-care personnel. Much to the ecstasy of public health advocates, the Health Ministry recently released a set of implementation guidelines for a long over-due Indian public health cadre.

A more recent announcement, however, raises concerns over the coherence of India’s vision with respect to health human resources. The Centre under the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission and the “Heal by India” initiative is reportedly developing an exhaustive online repository of all categories of health-care professionals in the country. Though such an innovation is much needed because of the currently fragmented nature of such data, one of its proposed primary purposes is to aid external stakeholders, viz. foreign employers and patients in finding a right Indian match for their respective needs. It is an atavistic return to the widely shunned principles of liberalisation in health care, which is not only gratuitous today but also menacing.

WHO forecast for India

The concerns are legitimised by the current estimates and future projections of health manpower in the country, which paint a not-so-salutary picture. A World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 report projected a requirement of nearly two million more doctors and nursing professionals for India in order to attain the minimum threshold ratio of health-care professionals to the population.

As per a study by WHO and the Public Health Foundation of India, over and above a veritable shortage of health-care personnel and their skewed skill-mix across a number of States, their current pace of growth is unlikely to result in any significant improvement in the density or skill-mix of health-care professionals by 2030. Such inadequacies are further compounded by the legions of health-care professionals who remain inactive and outside the labour force. In the face of these colossal challenges, the current measure which aims to subtly reinforce medical tourism and worsen the out-migration of health-care professionals from the country is utterly counter-intuitive.

Soft power projection

In the mid-1990s, the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) aimed to create an unprecedented scope for cross-border trade in medical and health-care services. While the health equity implications of this neoliberal offshoot are well known and its central tenets have been widely criticised, health care particularly in the post-COVID-19 era has been a fertile ground for countries to project soft power — at times even at the expense of the nation’s own health interests. A crucial distinction must always be drawn between exporting products such as vaccines and that of health-care professionals.

While the first is characterised by a much simpler transactional math, training health-care manpower entails large subsidies (even a fraction of which is hardly recovered through remittances and skill transfers), thus entailing a net drain of resources from the native country.

A similar draw on scarce national health-care resources is laid through medical tourism which is almost always to the detriment of health equity, particularly in developing settings such as India. The magnitude of these could be somewhat attenuated by the use of telemedicine and virtual platforms, though the larger concerns shall persist. While neither medical tourism nor out-migration can or need to be dispensed with in their entirety, to pursue them actively when the country is reeling under acute shortages in an aspirational decade for health care is least warranted.

India needs a registry

It is also hard to justify an immediate need for this measure. While an online health-care professionals repository will certainly aid foreign stakeholders in finding their right choices, there is neither a strong demand-side desperation nor a significant supply-side scarcity preventing a market to function well in its absence. For instance, a recruiter from a developed country willing to hire Indian nurses and remunerate them handsomely will not be hard pressed to find suitable candidates regardless of the assistance rendered by an online repository, and the latter would only be marginally helpful.

Rather, it is at the national and sub-national levels that such an exhaustive and updated registry of health-care professionals is the need of the hour, for addressing the many challenges and disparities in health manpower availability, distribution, and skill mix. This would also come to strongly complement measures such as an integrated public health cadre and the initiatives to train, deploy and retain more local manpower.

In health care, which is characterised by perennially scarce resources and a surfeit of challenges, everything revolves around identifying the priorities right. And no amount of political or geopolitical expediency or cultural chauvinism should be allowed to undercut national health interests. It is time to go all out to address national health-care workforce challenges and heal the nation before embarking on a healing cruise of the world.

Dr. Soham D. Bhaduri is a physician, health policy expert, and chief editor of ‘The Indian Practitioner’



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As crypto assets are digital assets, the rate of return is sensitive to changes in the global liquidity conditions

The precipitous downturn of the crypto market has brought cryptocurrencies back in the news. People wonder if this is the end of the crypto boom. The answer is ‘no’. Cryptocurrency is not really a currency. It is an asset that allows people to keep their money outside the formal financial system and make it accessible so that it can be used anywhere in the world. In today’s world, such an asset would be in great demand until some other asset innovation allows owners to achieve this objective in a more efficient way.

Price increases and decreases

Crypto assets like Bitcoin have been subject to wide fluctuations in their prices since their inception. The current downturn is not the first of its kind. There have been similar fluctuations in the past. The phenomenal rise in the price of Bitcoin in recent years has dwarfed the fluctuations in its price in the past. The popularity of Bitcoin is obvious from the price differentials with Ethereum and Litecoin. Most of the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin are brought about by changes in the demand side as the asset’s supply moves very slowly given the enormous cost of mining an additional Bitcoin at this stage.

The rise in the price of crypto assets began at the onset of the pandemic as people with excess funds parked them in crypto assets. This made sense given the lack of investment opportunities on account of the uncertainty arising from lockdowns. As the COVID-19 spread slowed down, people may have wanted to move their funds out of crypto assets and into more lucrative real investment opportunities arising from a recovering economy. This led to the eventual decline in prices. The halt in withdrawal by Celsius especially led to panic among investors as this company is supposed to be one of the biggest crypto lenders.

Notwithstanding the effects of these specific events, we must acknowledge that a crypto asset is only one of the assets in an individual’s portfolio. Therefore, changes in the general availability of profitable business opportunities and movement in the prices of other assets will definitely affect the price of crypto assets. Recently, there have been changes in the price of an important class of assets: government bonds issued by the governments of developed countries. Many central banks across the developed world have been raising their policy interest rates to combat rising inflation. For example, the Federal Funds Rate was hovering around zero for most of the pandemic. The Federal Reserve raised it recently leading to a sustained rise in the Federal Funds Rate as well as the three- month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate.

Safe assets

Debt raised by developed country governments, especially the U.S. but also by U.K. and Germany, is an important class of assets because these are deemed as safe assets across the world. In an influential paper published in 2017, Ricardo Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi defined a safe asset as a simple debt instrument that is expected to preserve its value during adverse systemic events. As the central banks of these countries raise their policy interest rates, the rate of return is also expected to go up, motivating large institutional investors to buy more of these. Accordingly, these investors would get out of some current investments and use the newly realised liquidity to buy these safe assets.

U.S. government bonds form a large fraction of safe asset portfolios, such as the portfolios of many central banks including that of India. The world over, demand for safe assets has increased as many developing countries have grown fast and accumulated enormous foreign exchange reserves. These countries then demanded USD-denominated assets to preserve the value of their portfolios. Events like the pandemic only increased the demand further for safe assets. Unfortunately, the supply of safe assets has not kept up with this demand as the developed countries that produce these assets have grown at a much slower rate. Given that there is generally a shortage of safe assets, it is likely that the demand and prices of crypto assets will change frequently as institutions look for alternatives with slight movements in the rate of return on safe assets. For example, Celsius reportedly could not raise additional liquidity because of tightening of interest rates leading to suspension of its operations.

Overall, investors must understand the nature of crypto assets and their demand and not ignore the interconnectedness of financial markets at the global level. As crypto assets are digital assets that can be mined and transacted from anywhere in the world, the rate of return of crypto assets is more sensitive to changes in the global liquidity conditions than to local conditions.

Parag Waknis is Dean, International Affairs and Associate Professor of Economics, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar University Delhi



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The BJP has started making efforts to expand its influence in the State before the 2023 elections

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited BJP corporators of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) to New Delhi for an informal meeting this month, he sent out two messages. The first was to show that the BJP is a party which gives importance to grassroots leaders and that these leaders have access to the top leadership, in sharp contrast to the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) where Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao’s official residence-cum-office is out of bounds for even his own ministers. The second was that the top leadership is serious about the 2023 Assembly elections in Telangana where it expects to mount a serious challenge to the TRS. After Karnataka and Puducherry, the BJP sees Telangana as the next best bet for its expansion in the south.

The party created history two years ago when it won as many as 48 seats (from just four in 2016) in the 150-member GHMC civic body. In the Assembly elections of 2018, Raja Singh from Goshamahal was the only BJP candidate to win a seat, but in the 2019 general elections, the party performed well. In Nizamabad, the BJP’s D. Aravind defeated Mr. Rao’s daughter Kavitha. In, Secunderabad, which is a BJP stronghold, Union Minister for Tourism, Culture and Northeast Development G. Kishan Reddy won. Bandi Sanjay Kumar, who was then official spokesperson of the party and is now BJP State president, won in Karimnagar. The party also won Adilabad unexpectedly. Later, it won won two Assembly bypolls — Dubbaka and Huzurabad — decisively by fielding M. Raghunandan Rao and Eatala Rajender, who were earlier with the TRS.

Since these victories, Mr. Kumar has been going hammer and tongs against the Rao regime, egged on by the top leadership. Mr. Kumar launched a Praja Sangrama Yatra (walkathon) over two phases to fight what the party terms “corruption and misgovernance of the TRS government”. In the two phases of the yatra, BJP leaders have covered different districts. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, national BJP president J.P. Nadda and other senior leaders have participated in the yatra, using the opportunity to launch a no-holds-barred attack against the TRS government. Mr. Kumar has been playing the communal card, hitting out at the TRS-Majlis Party friendship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too accused the regime for its “dynastic and corrupt” rule when he addressed partypersons at the Begumpet airport during a recent visit. He claimed that the people of Telangana are ready for political change and that the situation was ideal for the BJP to assume power in the next elections. Besides this, the party has also sent a former State BJP president and former MLA K. Laxman to the Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh, indicating the importance it was giving to Telangana leaders.

The BJP will get another chance to project its strength in the State when the national executive meets in July in the first week in Hyderabad. Top leaders including Mr. Modi, Mr. Shah, the Chief Ministers of all the BJP-ruled States and senior leaders are expected to attend the meeting. This will be the first physical meeting of BJP’s key decision-making body outside the national capital after a gap of five years.

It is clear that the BJP, having had pockets of influence till now in Telangana, expects to do better in the next elections and is taking various initiatives to achieve this. But this is no easy task considering that the Congress has a sizeable support base and the TRS is no pushover even if its popularity may have taken a few knocks in recent times. The challenge for the BJP is to build a grassroots cadre across the State and identify winning candidates to face the stiff challenge from the TRS and the Congress.

geetanath.v@thehindu.co.in



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India must return toCOVID-appropriate behaviour

After the third wave driven by the Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 peaked in end-January this year with over 0.33 million cases a day, there has been a small bump in the number of daily cases reported in the first fortnight of June and a slightly bigger increase in the last one week to touch over 13,200 cases on June 17. But the rate of increase has been small and restricted to a few States and some major cities. The rate of growth of active cases has also been low. While the sub-lineage BA.2 is still the dominant strain in India, BA.4 and BA.5 seem to be causing the new cases. The small increase in testing in the past week could be a reason for the more cases reported. The seven-day average test positivity rate doubled from less than 1% in early June to over 2% by mid-June and has been increasing incrementally since then to 2.7% on June 20. Increasing the number of daily tests will result in more cases being detected. But with a large percentage of the adult population fully vaccinated and a sizable percentage also infected, the focus should be more on hospitalisations and deaths and not daily infections. There has been a slight increase in hospitalisation in a few States, but there is no cause for alarm. However, there has not been any increase in daily deaths. The small bump in daily cases seen in a few States for the last three weeks therefore does not appear to mark the beginning of a new wave.

That said, the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages are fast spreading to more countries in Europe with a concomitant increase in cases. The BA.5 sub-lineage has become dominant in Portugal leading to a surge in daily infections, hospitalisations and even deaths despite very high primary and booster dose vaccination coverage; the reasons for increased deaths are not known. With both BA.4 and BA.5 endowed with greater transmissibility and higher immune escape from vaccination and earlier infection, including of the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron sub-lineages, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control designated them as variants of concern in mid-May; WHO too has given the same designation. On June 13, the ECDC cautioned that these sub-lineages will become dominant throughout Europe leading to increased daily cases. However, it notes that based on limited data, the two sub-lineages do not appear to be associated with increased disease severity compared with the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron sub-variants. Given the greater transmissibility of BA.4 and BA.5 and immune escape, the sub-lineages may become dominant in India too, especially as COVID-appropriate behaviour is now poor. While the two sub-lineages may not lead to increased deaths, the risk of long-term complications even among the young and healthy when infected cannot be overlooked. Masks must be made mandatory, especially in public and closed spaces with poor ventilation.



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The Opposition did not use the presidential election to counter the BJP’s narrative

The BJP has stolen a march over the Opposition by naming Droupadi Murmu as its candidate for President. With the support of BJP allies and regional parties such as Odisha’s BJD and Andhra Pradesh’s YSRCP, she is poised to win and become the first from a tribal community to occupy the highest office of the Republic. The significance of her elevation is particularly pronounced in the 75th year of India’s independence. A tribal woman succeeding a Dalit in the highest office of the country is a remarkable testimony to the deepening of Indian democracy, notwithstanding the disturbing signs of the mobilisation of subaltern communities for majoritarian politics. Ms. Murmu will be the second woman to hold the highest office, after Pratibha Patil, and at 64, she will be the youngest President in the country’s history. From Mayurbhanj in Odisha, part of the region that houses a vast majority of India’s aboriginal population, Ms. Murmu was a teacher, and joined the BJP in 1997. She was a Minister in Odisha and the Governor of Jharkhand between 2015 and 2021. Her nomination by the BJP for the highest office of the country signifies the party’s sustained efforts to incorporate tribal communities politically and culturally. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal signature on the decision is unmistakable and is in line with his relentless efforts to expand the BJP’s social base wide and far.

With numbers tilted in the BJP’s favour, the Opposition could have only used the contest for the highest office as an opportunity for political messaging. The joint candidate of the Opposition parties, Yashwant Sinha — a former BJP leader and Union Minister in the Janata Dal and BJP governments — hardly serves that purpose. For all his track record, Mr. Sinha hardly represents anything political. That he turned into a strong critic of Mr. Modi after being ignored for positions, if anything, weakens any claim of his candidacy being an ideological counter to the BJP. The lack of imagination, initiative and capacity for any radical politics in the Opposition comes across starkly in the selection of the candidate. While Mr. Modi uses every election as an opportunity to respond to group aspirations of various communities, the Opposition remains adrift and ensconced in cocoons. That Mr. Sinha comes from a tribal State, Jharkhand, makes the optics of this contest even more damaging for the Opposition. The Opposition is right to point out that the BJP did not make any serious effort to field a consensus candidate. But excusing its own limitations by blaming the BJP is self-defeating. This turned out to be yet another missed opportunity for the Opposition to construct a counter narrative to the BJP, which is inclusive in its messaging in instances such as this, while not giving up its pursuit of an exclusivist politics.



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Paris, June 22: Despite protests from nations in many parts of the world, France intends to go ahead with its nuclear tests in the South Pacific. The explosions could come at any time. Notices have been distributed and radio broadcasts in the area give frequent reminders, that ships should steer clear of the Mururoa Atoll, the test area, starting from midnight on June 20. Presumably, officials now are awaiting only favourable weather conditions for the first experiment. Australia, New Zealand, Peru and Japan have protested against the tests at the Geneva Disarmament Conference. The Canadian and Ethiopian delegates said they were associating themselves with the protests. Meanwhile the French Government yesterday formally denied that any danger existed to the populations or environment of the southern hemisphere from its above-ground nuclear test programme in the Pacific. Government spokesman Jean-Philippe Lecat said the French Cabinet yesterday discussed the test series. Mr. Lecat told newsmen that the Foreign Minister Maurice Schumann reported to the Cabinet on the reaction to the programme. Mr. Lecat said, “Precuations have been taken which are superior to those which have been taken by nations which carried out, or are still carrying out, atmospheric experiments. They are superior also to the precautions taken by those who continue to carry out underground tests.”



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This development is a fitting twist to a tale that has engaged the attention of cranks for a century, showing, once again, the human propensity for seeing a pattern in random events.

It turns out that one of the world’s most infamous curses grew from a case of professional rivalry. Pharaoh Tutankhamun’s curse, which was believed to have killed some of those involved in the archaeological dig that unearthed his tomb in 1922, emerged from the petulance of Egyptologist-turned-reporter at the Daily Mail, Arthur Weigall who, a recent documentary reveals, was upset about the scoop on the expedition going to The Times and so created the myth that launched an entire genre of pulp fiction.

This development is a fitting twist to a tale that has engaged the attention of cranks for a century, showing, once again, the human propensity for seeing a pattern in random events. Having been denied access to direct information, Weigall is believed to have made up his own story, inspired by the writings that were usually found on the walls of Egyptian tombs and were meant to warn grave robbers of fatal consequences should they trespass. This was just the fuel that the engine of public imagination needed for the construction of a fearsome legend that linked together a handful of deaths, including that of the canary belonging to lead archaeologist Howard Carter.

Fake news, of course, existed long before it became weaponised politically in modern democracies, to be lobbed across the vast space of the world wide web at one’s ideological opponent, from 1835 news reports about the discovery of life on the moon to the “greatly exaggerated” report about Mark Twain dying of poverty in London. The story of Weigall and The Curse That Never Was is simply the latest revelation about one of the oldest, and least edifying, tricks of the trade: Do a journalist out of a story, and they might just make up a spicier version.



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The objective of the 21st Amendment, the draft bill for which was cleared by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s cabinet earlier this week for tabling in Parliament, is to shear the presidency of much of its executive powers.

A project for structural political reform may seem like the least urgent matter on the “to do” list of the Sri Lankan leadership at a time of food and fuel shortages and economic chaos which is fast turning into a humanitarian crisis. Yet there may be no better time for such a project, especially if it addresses the demand on the street that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa must go, and promises to clean up governance. The objective of the 21st Amendment, the draft bill for which was cleared by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s cabinet earlier this week for tabling in Parliament, is to shear the presidency of much of its executive powers. It would place more powers with the prime minister and make the government responsible to Parliament. With all power no longer concentrated in the hands of one individual in the system, it could make for more responsible decision-making on the economy. But it is far from clear if the bill, which has to be passed in Parliament by two-thirds of the members, enjoys that kind of support.

The 21st Amendment is said to hew closely to the provisions of the 19th Amendment, passed in 2015 in the months after Mahinda Rajapaksa’s bid for a third term as president ended in defeat. After a decade of authoritarian Rajapaksa rule, the 19th Amendment held out the promise of good and responsible governance by the team of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe. But with the government’s spectacular collapse under the weight of its own contradictions, it was only a matter of time before the Rajapaksas returned to power. One of their first acts was to rush in the 20th amendment, which reversed almost entirely the provisions of the 19th amendment, including those that ensured independent appointments to commissions for elections, public service, police, finance, human rights, procurement.

While the new Ranil Wickremesinghe government has called for political consensus on the 21st amendment, it is not only President Rajapaksa who is loath to give up the Executive Presidency. The Sri Lanka Podujana Party, which cushions Wickremesinghe in Parliament, may not back the amendment. The youngest of the senior Rajapaksas, former finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, nurses presidential ambition, but the 21st Amendment would eliminate him on grounds of his dual citizenship. Even the opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya, whose leader Sajith Premadasa wants the presidency abolished, may not back the amendment as he believes it does not go far enough. If the bill fails to go through, it can only create more political acrimony and distract from the task of economic repair.



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In Yashwant Sinha vs Droupadi Murmu, Murmu's candidature looks unassailable, and not just because the poll math tilts in favour of the BJP-led NDA.

The stage is set for the presidential contest with the announcement of candidates by the ruling party and the Opposition and there may already be a winner. In Yashwant Sinha vs Droupadi Murmu, Murmu’s candidature looks unassailable, and not just because the poll math tilts in favour of the BJP-led NDA. Hers is a powerful story in a democracy, “President Murmu” will have enormous symbolic significance. If elected, the school teacher from Odisha who worked her way up the political ladder against great odds, marking many firsts along the way, as councilor, MLA, minister and governor, will be the first president to belong to a Scheduled Tribe, and only the second woman to make it to the country’s top constitutional post. Of course, a section of the Opposition may now cry tokenism. They may point out that her candidature is driven by the BJP’s electoral calculation in Odisha and among the Scheduled Tribe electorates ahead of the next rounds of polls. Or that it is only part of the greater Hindutva project to create a majoritarian whole without ceding real power to marginalised communities. But in the aftermath of the announcement of her candidature on Tuesday, these arguments sound more like bad-humoured carping by those who can see the writing on the wall, and the contest’s also-rans. Clearly, the Opposition could not summon either the political imagination or the agility to put up a fight.

The Opposition, in fact, has much to be embarrassed about. In the run-up to the presidential election, at a time when it needed to put up a united show and rally behind a consensus candidate, to send a bracing political signal even if there was little likelihood of victory, it ended up floating names of possible contestants for the post, only for them to decline the offer. That, in quick succession, Gopal Gandhi, Farooq Abdullah and Sharad Pawar said thanks, but no thanks, only goes to show that essential political spadework was not done by these parties before making these names public. Finally, 17 parties declared Yashwant Sinha as the common Opposition candidate even as there are several non-BJP parties that will find it politically difficult to oppose and be seen to oppose Murmu’s candidature. These include, prominently, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in Orissa, Murmu’s home state, and the JMM in Jharkhand, where she served as governor and which has a substantial population of Scheduled Tribes.

Ahead of the presidential poll, then, comes more confirmation, if more was needed, that the BJP is not just winning elections, it is also setting the agenda and the Opposition is only playing catch-up, or almost. If the Rajya Sabha polls, and then the presidential election is indication, the Opposition has an uphill climb ahead. It needs political resolve, imagination and a strategy — merely invoking spectres of an endangered idea of India or pieties of a besieged constitutionalism will not do.



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Five of the passengers are yet to be traced. As many as 24 were sent to various hospitals, with at least two of them in serious condition.

Seventeen persons were killed after an Air India Boeing-707, flying from Singapore via Madras with 99 passengers and a crew of 12, crashed on landing in blinding rain at Bombay Airport. Five of the passengers are yet to be traced. As many as 24 were sent to various hospitals, with at least two of them in serious condition.

Presidential Polls

A desperate opposition replaced its candidate for the July 12 presidential election deciding to field a retired Supreme Court judge. H R Khanna, in place of Hiren Mukherjee who had to bow out of the contest following rejection of his personal petition to the Chief Election Commissioner, for restoration of his missing name in the electoral list from New Delhi. Khanna is expected to file his nomination papers shortly before the end of the nominations for the presidential poll.

The Israeli Invasion

Israeli fighter bombers pounded Palestinian camps in West Beirut for the first time in nine days, while Lebanese and Palestinian announcements said, “one of the major battles of the war” raged in the mountains east of the city. The Israeli government announced its acceptance of a 6 pm local time cease-fire with the Syrian Army, but at the same time its warplanes launched heavy bombing raids on Palestinian camps near Beirut’s international airport, and at Hai Selloum and Rami al Ali on the Mediterranean beach, causing heavy casualities.

Indus Treaty

India and Pakistan have amicably sorted out an outstanding issue concerning the total irrigated agricultural area in J&K that should be provided water from the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenabunder the Indus treaty of 1960.



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Mrinal Pande writes: Did no one pause to think of how the images of the homeless rushing to safe spaces with their minimal possessions would play against the backdrop of MLAs thumping each other on the back and smiling for the cameras in plush hotels?

The battle for the heart of Maharashtra unfolds before us like a scene out of the Greco Roman wars. On one side, we have the somewhat battle-weary combined forces of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi; on the other, Eknath Shinde, the mighty dissident from the Shiv Sena with his swelling band of brothers, claiming that the coalition that the Sena had made with Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Sonia Gandhi’s Congress was unholy. Though it is being publicly denied, strong support is coming from the BJP headed by Devendra Fadnavis, still smarting from being dethroned by the MVA, and consumed by the desire for regaining his lost throne. The great strength of the camp supporting Shinde, as we all know, is the north’s demographic strength — numbers, the immeasurable human mass that BJP-ruled states hold, ready to pulverise the enemy who snatched away India’s financial capital successfully.

Operation Grab Back began a few days ago when a few air-conditioned buses were said to have carried dissidents from the MVA into Gujarat’s Surat and kept them in a five-star hotel awaiting orders. This is, by now, a familiar scenario, repeated in many states before toppling an elected government and replacing it with one that is more Centre-friendly.

As things began stirring in Mumbai and Surat this time, suddenly and inexplicably, three chartered planes flew dissidents, whose ranks had swelled, from the arid climes of Surat to the flood-ravaged north-eastern state of Assam. In Guwahati, as in Surat, they are reportedly staying in a five-star luxury hotel. As we all know, Assam is facing floods and landslides that have killed almost 100, rendered almost 3 lakh homeless and nearly submerged 30 of the state’s 35 districts.

Questions arise, like who has been funding these expensive disaster tourism ventures for dissidents opposing the MVA, of which they are still a part? Who funded the trips in air conditioned buses to Surat and picked up the tab for stays in five-star hotels in both Surat and Guwahati? The Maharashtra BJP state chief Chandrakant Patil says his party has nothing to do with what has been happening in the Sena’s ranks and will not stake a claim for government formation. However, Shinde and his friends were received by a BJP MP and a BJP MLA at Guwahati airport.

While the political drama is still unfolding in Mumbai and Delhi, with Uddhav Thackeray moving out of his official residence and the swelling numbers of rebel Shiv Sena MLAs being feted at Radisson Blu in Guwahati, it seems more likely than not that the MVA government may fall. It may be cause for glee in the ranks of those who engineered this coup, but it still leaves another question unanswered: What possessed the powers that be to undertake this unseemly horse trading in a state reeling under unprecedented floods? Media savvy as they are, did they not pause to think of how the images of the homeless rushing to safe spaces with their minimal possessions would play against the backdrop of MLAs thumping each other on the back and smiling for the cameras in plush hotels?

It is unlikely that the Assam Chief Minister, during his much publicised train journey through the affected areas, had failed to notice how inadequate the air dropping of food and relief materials was proving to be in the face of the deluge. Didn’t he point out to the organisers of this teddy bears’ picnic at the Radisson Blu how hunger and disease are stalking the beleaguered land, and that his first duty was to the citizens of Assam? Such indifference to public opinion brings to mind Herodotus, witness to the endless bloodied procession of armies during the multicultural wars and the end of Xerxes, the powerful Persian King of Kings: “The end is not apparent from the very outset.”

Herodotus, a passionate advocate of freedom and democracy and a foe of despotic behaviour, would make good reading in these times for our elected representatives. Herodotus never blames human beings, he blames the system. It is the system that creates the soldiers and the kings and the learned men eventually. And their quality determines the end result. At the end of the Greco Persian wars, a handful of free speaking, ever squabbling Greeks won because they were defending what is most defensible: The right of all citizens to be treated well, to be heard, to live with dignity befitting a human being. The Persians, with their great disciplined ranks, lost, because they worshipped at the feet of one supreme leader unquestioningly, with no arguments.

The Maharashtra dissidents enjoying themselves at someone else’s expense, in five-star luxury surrounded by misery, devastation, land erosion and death, are a metaphor, a symbol and sign of our times. They point to the borders that have been drawn between the common citizens and the political class they vote for. The millions that are being squandered on people’s representatives who are defying their given mandate, could have been at the service of the state’s disaster management department to help the people of Assam who have lost their homes, their crops and their self respect.

This is not the first instance, nor will it be the last. Year after year, crisis brews in a state and crores are wasted in supporting completely irrational dissidence through undemocratic means. To think that, decades ago, Mumbai was India’s first multi language metropolitan city where VK Krishna Menon, a rank “outsider”, could win an election and rise to be a Union minister.

What went wrong? Things changed with the rise of linguistic chauvinism. Once it began to tug at the political imagination, Maharashtra hit out at Gujaratis, and then, at South Indians and other “Others”. Sadly, politicians from various ideological camps discarded their core ideology of liberal multiculturalism and joined the xenophobic supporters of “Maharashtra for Maharashtrians” and Marathi chauvinists. In 1966, a cartoonist, Bal Thackeray created the Shiv Sena, and soon established a mindset that was anything but amusing. The wall built around the state is today simultaneously its shield and a trap. Such walls do not make good neighbours. They will always make state politics a target for the entry of Trojan horses from UP to Guwahati.



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Rajesh Rajamani writes: Until web series invest in better storytelling methods, watching one will resemble a heavy drinking session that can be fun while it lasts but is sure to give a bad hangover the next morning

Filmmaker duo Pushkar-Gayathri’s Tamil web series Suzhal: The Vortex was released recently on Prime Video. The problem with this small-town crime thriller is that all its ideas, characterisation, plot points and drama seem like the bullet points on a series pitch PPT. They are not fleshed out enough to make for an engaging series. Yet, I found myself binge-watching the show to witness how it unravels. This made me wonder about the very nature of how web series are constructed and designed for consumption.

Suzhal: The Vortex has good actors, but it never really extracts great performances from them. It is set in an interesting mountain terrain, but it hardly exploits the location to add drama to its narrative. The nine-day-long Mayana Kollai, the local temple festival, offers interesting visual imagery, but its use as a metaphor gets numbingly repetitive and tiring after a point. Several dramatic points get continuously thrown at us but the characters behave the same way as before and after, as if they have absolutely no stake in the story.

Despite all this mediocrity, the series kept me curious and hooked for its entire running time. Even when I was sure that it was lacking heavily in several departments, I couldn’t stop myself from wanting to know what happened next. After a few episodes, to escape the tediousness of the narrative, I decided to run the series at 2X or 3X speed just to find out who has done it in this whodunit.

While the western audience might already be very familiar with the web series format, it is new for the average Indian audience. Unlike feature films that attempt to tell a story within 90-150 minutes, each season of a web series is forced to keep you engaged for 8-10 episodes that cumulatively last for 6-8 hours or even more. And OTT platforms are clear that they want their audience to binge-watch, for they fear that the viewer who logs out after an episode or two might not return to the series again. So the only way to make sure the viewer watches an entire season is to make it binge-worthy.

This is unlike how series were consumed a decade or so earlier on television. Most series then released one episode per week. The episodes would leave you at a cliffhanger moment but only to make sure you return to watch the next week as well. This weekly viewing format didn’t allow for binge-watching unless the whole of an already finished series was made available online. Binge-watching was usually the resort of those who were in some form of pain. When they were grieving the loss of a loved one or nursing a broken heart or when they had to insulate themselves from any other devastating event, binge-watching served as a potent distraction. But today, binge-watching has become the norm.

However, an average viewer can’t watch anything for eight hours without feeling very fatigued. The job of a web series then becomes about fighting this mental and physical fatigue of the audience and keeping them hooked rather than fully engaged. So it is not surprising that in 2017, Netflix chairman and CEO Reed Hastings declared that the streamer’s biggest competitor was, in fact, sleep. “You get a show or a movie you’re really dying to watch, and you end up staying up late at night, so we actually compete with sleep,” Hastings said. “And we’re winning.”

This is what Suzhal: The Vortex succeeds in. Even though you are never truly engaged with its narrative, it compensates for that by adding several twists and turns to keep you curious. By deliberately misleading you and changing the narrative goal post, it keeps you hooked, even if some of these come across as contrived.

This seems to be the very nature of how web series are formulated today. A disproportionate amount of effort is put into keeping the viewer hooked, rather than being invested in good storytelling. As a result, even when viewers feel cheated and exhausted, they keep craving for more. It’s almost as if watching a series is an unhealthy addiction that can only offer a momentary high and not a fulfilling experience.

This is in contrast to how the feature film format is able to make the audience feel, think or even reflect on various issues, apart from entertaining them. Feature films have, of course, had a much longer history and have taken plenty of time to evolve to their current form. And it is quite possible that web series, too, might break away from their current addictive techniques and move on to better storytelling methods. Until then, however, watching a series will resemble a heavy drinking session that can be fun while it lasts but is sure to give a bad hangover the next morning.

The writer is a Chennai-based filmmaker



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By proposing a tribal woman for President, BJP gains symbolic political capital in several states where it is looking to expand its presence

Written by Siddharth Raina and Priyadarshi Shrivastava

The anticipation over the declaration of the NDA’s presidential candidate has come to an end with the BJP naming, surprisingly, Droupadi Murmu. A name, which, before being announced as the presidential candidate for the ruling alliance, was on no one’s list.

Who is Droupadi Murmu? A tribal woman born in Mayurbhanj, a remote district in Odisha, she has risen through the ranks. She is seen as an experienced and able administrator having served the community, party and government in various positions. She was recognised as best MLA in 2013 by the Odisha Legislative Assembly.

Before becoming the first tribal woman governor (of Jharkhand), she served as a member of the BJP’s national executive and head of the party’s ST wing++. She began her career as a teacher at Sri Aurobindo Integral Education Center in Rairangpur and served as a junior assistant in the Irrigation & Power Department, Government of Odisha, in the late 1970s. Having served the community, she started her political career in 1997 as a councillor.

Murmu’s nomination sends a strong political signal in several states where the BJP has been trying to grow. The tribal community has shown overwhelming support for the BJP in the last two general elections. In 2019, of the total 47 ST reserved seats, BJP won 35. In an earlier press conference, BJP President J P Nadda made it clear that India’s President would be from the eastern part of the country.

The non-BJP states with significant ST populations are Maharashtra (10.05 per cent), Odisha (23 per cent), Rajasthan (13.4 per cent), Jharkhand (27 per cent), Chattisgarh (31 per cent). In terms of optics, it would be difficult for leaders from these states not to vote for an ST candidate.

The BJP has been trying to make inroads in Odisha for quite some time. It has been successful in getting a foothold in the Lok Sabha elections. With Murmu’s nomination, the party may move closer to gaining influence in the state assembly as well. This is the first time that someone from the state will occupy Rashtrapati Bhavan. Given the significance of the move, even the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD might end up supporting the BJP candidate. Murmu as President will create political ripples in the adjoining tribal-dominant states of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh as well as they go to the polls.

In the upcoming Gujarat elections, the move will help BJP strengthen its hold in the tribal-dominant areas. So far, the Congress, which won 15 of 27 ST reserved seats, has been ahead in wooing the community in the state.

Given the NDA’s dominance in legislatures, it is likely that its candidate will be President. This will be the third time the BJP will choose a President who is from a humble background. In addition, in the last general elections and some recent assembly polls, the BJP has seen a greater response from women voters.

Now, with a woman from a tribal community as its nominee for President, the party is trying to give out the message that it is creating space in the highest office to a politically marginalised community. This is something the BJP has been targeted by the Opposition for not doing.

Raina and Shrivastava are Delhi-based independent researchers. Views are personal



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Prabhash Ranjan, Sunayana Sasmal write: Negotiations over the global commons are not easy. But the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies is an important milestone in trade governance.

One of the most promising outcomes of the recently concluded twelfth ministerial conference of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is the adoption of a new, first-of-its-kind, sustainability-driven trade agreement called the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS). The significance of the adoption of AFS can be gauged from the fact that this is only the third instance of amending the WTO agreement in its 27-year history. The aim of AFS as echoed by Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.6 is to address harmful fisheries subsidies provided by countries towards marine fishing and to save the world’s fish stocks from further depletion.

Fundamentally, AFS prohibits three kinds of subsidies: First, illegal, unreported, or unregulated (IUU) fishing; second, fishing of already over-exploited stocks; and third, fishing on unregulated high seas. As part of special and differential treatment (S&DT), developing countries like India have been given a two-year transition period for phasing out the first two kinds of subsidies within their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

However, the final negotiated outcome, most crucially, lacks the much-needed discipline on subsidies for fishing in other members’ waters and those that contribute to overcapacity and over-fishing (OCOF). India has been steadfastly demanding that developing countries be given a longer transition period of 25 years to put an end to OCOF subsidies within their EEZ. India’s stand on this issue is rooted in its national interest. Given its long coastline of nearly 7,500 kilometres, the blue economy — sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth — occupies a cardinal place in India’s development trajectory. India has set a target of exporting marine products worth $14 billion by 2025. Thus, India needs the policy space to invest in developing the marine infrastructure to harness the full potential of the blue economy. Moreover, India needs to protect the livelihood concerns of close to four million marine farmers, the majority of whom are engaged in small-scale, artisanal fishing, which does not pose a great threat to sustainability.

India rightly contends that WTO disciplines should not be developed in a manner that throttles its emerging sector while richer nations continue to negotiate exemptions for indefinite subsidisation and exclusion of horizontal, non-specific fuel subsidies (that is, fuel subsidies not limited to marine fishing purposes) in the text. Rich countries have historically provided massive subsidies to build capacity for large-scale fishing and fishing in distant waters, thereby contributing the most to depletion. The sheer numbers — India provided subsidies worth a mere $277 million in 2018, in sharp contrast to the top five subsidisers (China, EU, US, South Korea, and Japan, whose subsidies range from $7,261-$2,860 million respectively), prove the discrepancies.

However, India’s demand for a longer transition period was not acceptable to many countries who insisted on this period being seven years. Consequently, WTO member countries agreed to a limited AFS sans regulations disciplining OCOF subsidies, which have been pushed to the future and are expected to be completed within four years. If negotiations fail, the AFS will stand terminated, as provided in Article 12. Meanwhile, all countries can continue providing most OCOF subsidies, that is, except for fishing on unregulated high seas.

For the sake of sustainability, countries need to overcome their differences soon and forge a comprehensive agreement with the inclusion of meaningful S&DT, else they risk the indefinite continuation of harmful subsidies by all players and/or weaponisation of this agreement as a bargaining chip in other negotiations. One balancing act could be to consider different ways to effectuate such flexibilities while accommodating the demands in a more targeted manner. Other strategies for India could involve strengthening infrastructure and mechanisms now to be able to utilise any future exemptions.

For India, the AFS is less-than-perfect, with a potential of no real outcome at the end of four years if the negotiations fail. But negotiations over the global commons are not easy. Countries, true to the SDGs, should fulfil their mandates of sustainability and development in good faith. Although the road ahead is arduous, the AFS is an important milestone in global trade governance.

This column first appeared in the print edition on June 23, 2022 under the title ‘Regulating global commons’. Ranjan is a professor at the Jindal Global Law School and Sasmal is an international trade and investment law researcher based at Columbia University



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Mohammed Saqib writes: The Ukraine crisis could be an occasion for the member nations to commit themselves to the original goal of the bloc

Russia’s conflict with Ukraine has complicated the agenda of the two-day BRICS summit that begins on Thursday. The focus of the Beijing-hosted virtual summit will be centred on the conflict and the association’s future. The leaders of BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will navigate the crucial dilemma of evolving a common stance on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

How should the BRICS find a way out of its current dilemmas? Will they become a major distraction from its primary agenda of rebalancing an international system dominated by the West? Will it advance the role of BRICS as a leading force for global economic governance reform? Or will the geopolitical considerations of its members come in the way of attaining the grouping’s original goal? The answer to these questions lies in the way BRICS adapts to the new realities. The current predicament could be an opportunity to challenge the existing system dominated by unilateralism and exclusion.

Economically, militarily, technologically, socially and culturally, BRICS nations represent a powerful bloc. They have an estimated combined population of 3.23 billion people, which is over 40 per cent of the world’s population. They account for over more than a quarter of the world’s land area over three continents, and for more than 25 per cent of the global GDP. The grouping comprises two of the fastest-growing nations, India and China.

The new geopolitical reality, where so much is in flux and unclear, creates a space for powerful new narratives. Some of the BRICS members could be potential targets of the kind of economic warfare deployed by the West against Russia. It is time that BRICS and other like-minded countries seriously work toward the creation of a parallel economic bloc that doesn’t rely on US-led institutions. The West has so far not expected the BRICS countries to stringently adhere to its sanctions against Russia. But it will be naïve to expect that they will persist with this attitude.

Can BRICS withstand the economic and institutional might of the West? It has proved its mettle to an extent by establishing the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA). However, despite the group comprising China, India and Russia, intra-BRICS trade accounts for less than 20 per cent of global trade and BRICS is far from having its own payment mechanisms, international messaging systems or cards. Initiatives such as the NDB should have, by now, given some competition to the Western lenders. Challenging the economic might of the West in the near future might be close to impossible. However, the Ukraine crisis should drive home the need to create institutional arrangements that can cushion against similar financial turbulence in the future.

BRICS requires a recalibration of its structure and agenda. Creating financial mechanisms and technological institutions could turn BRICS into a G20 for developing nations. It’s time to revisit the idea of expanding the grouping by inviting new members. This could also impart new vigour to the BRICS’s developmental goals.

Economic cooperation between India and China is vital for the success of any future BRICS endeavour. The border conflict has created a mistrust of China in India. In the current situation, New Delhi is unlikely to take an anti-West stance. India, unlike China, is neither a UN Security Council member nor does it have major sticking points with the West. At the same time, India is not a part of the Western camp. That does open up the possibility of New Delhi taking a more proactive position in BRICS. So far, it has taken a subdued position on several matters in the grouping. The two powers need to come together for the sake of global governance reform.

The emergence of an alliance of nations in the global south, that breaks the West’s hegemony, could be a game-changer in geopolitics. The Ukraine crisis could be an occasion for the leaders of BRICS nations to commit themselves to the original goal of the bloc. It’s an opportunity they shouldn’t let go of.

This column first appeared in the print edition on June 23, 2022 under the title ‘BRICS after Ukraine’. The writer is Secretary General, India China Economic and Cultural Council



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Sudheendra Kulkarni writes: A rubber stamp Rashtrapati may suit the needs of an all-powerful prime minister. But the majesty of Rashtrapati Bhavan lies less in its grand architecture and more in the extent to which its occupant ensures, without fear or favour, the supremacy of constitutional governance

Yashwant Sinha concludes his autobiography, appropriately titled Relentless, with a line that has proved to be very pertinent after he was chosen on Tuesday as the common candidate of Opposition parties to contest the presidential election next month. He writes: “For me, my journey’s end has no end till I finally go to sleep.”

Though fighting fit at 84, his long and distinguished public life appeared to have entered the last lap. He was a prominent member of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s cabinet in which he served as the finance and external affairs minister. After he quit the BJP, he became vice president of the Trinamool Congress. With a boldness rare among political leaders, he frequently visited Kashmir as the head of the Concerned Citizens’ Group and criticised the attacks on the identity, dignity and democratic rights of the Kashmiri people under the Narendra Modi government. In 2020, he undertook a gruelling 3,000-km Gandhi Shanti Yatra from Mumbai to Delhi to create mass awareness about divisive politics and “state-sponsored violence”, as was evident in the attacks on anti-CAA protesters. His prolific and powerful pen continues to produce widely admired newspaper articles.

Yet, it seemed that the most active phase of his public life had ended. But it hasn’t. He is now all set to fight the most challenging election of his life. He may not win. But not all battles are to be fought only for victory in the conventional sense of the term. There is also triumph of a different kind in fighting for one’s principles and convictions that are in alignment with the nation’s pressing needs. This is why Sinha’s candidature as the representative of the united Opposition is significant for two reasons. First, by coming together for the presidential election, the anti-BJP parties have answered a question millions of Indians have been asking, with disappointment and frustration, since Narendra Modi’s ascension to power in 2014: “Where is Opposition unity?” The process of forging unity of all Opposition parties has begun.

Second, this process is bound to gain momentum in the run-up to the bigger battle for 2024. The joint statement issued after the meeting of the Opposition parties articulates this resolve clearly: “The BJP government at the Centre has failed totally in fulfilling its promises… It is misusing ED, CBI, Election Commission, Governor’s office and other institutions as weapons against Opposition Parties and state governments run by them… We assure the people of India that the unity of the Opposition parties, which has been forged for the presidential election… will be further consolidated in the months ahead.”

Three leaders deserve special credit for this effort — Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee and Sonia Gandhi. Banerjee and Pawar initiated the two crucial meetings of the Opposition in New Delhi last week, which culminated in Sinha’s candidature. Pawar has already shown his extraordinary political acumen in Maharashtra by achieving what had seemed impossible a few years ago — a coalition government comprising the Shiv Sena, NCP and the Congress. When these three leaders — along with Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD and others, including, possibly, Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) — begin to work together, there will be a big change in the country’s political atmosphere.

Sinha’s words, “my journey’s end has no end,” also ring true in the case of Droupadi Murmu, the BJP’s candidate for the presidential election. Hers has been a life of unending struggle and multiple tragedies, from which she sought solace by associating herself with Brahma Kumaris, a women-led spiritual movement. Depression due to the deaths of her husband and two sons prompted her to think of quitting public life. Yet, destiny opened up new beginnings, first as the Governor of Jharkhand and now, in all likelihood, as India’s next President. The prospect of a woman from the Adivasi community becoming the head of the Republic should certainly be welcomed and rejoiced. Our Republic belongs to all equally, and all, especially those belonging to marginalised communities, must have opportunities to serve the nation.

However, considerations of identity politics, which have influenced the BJP’s decision, cannot be sufficient to determine the suitability of becoming Rashtrapati. Regardless of gender, caste, creed or tribe, the incumbent of that august office must be committed to, and capable of, serving as the custodian of the Constitution. In this context, sadly, we cannot overlook the prime minister’s self-serving calculations. The BJP’s choice of making “a Dalit President” five years ago turned out to be deeply disappointing. Ram Nath Kovind did not even once show the courage to express displeasure over the government’s repeated assaults on democracy, secularism, and independence of the institutions of governance. In 2019, he even acquiesced in Maharashtra governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari’s egregious midnight “coup” of revoking the President’s rule and swearing in BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister. Contrast this with the many instances when Kovind’s predecessor, Pranab Mukherjee, publicly voiced his concern over the infringement of the Constitution’s basic values.

A rubber stamp Rashtrapati may suit the needs of an all-powerful prime minister. Getting an Adivasi, who is moreover a woman, elected as the President may well bring electoral benefits to the ruling party. But these are not the purposes for which the makers of the Constitution created the office of the head of state. The majesty of Rashtrapati Bhavan lies less in its grand architecture and more in the extent to which its occupant conscientiously ensures, without fear or favour, the supremacy of constitutional governance in India. Sinha or Murmu, this is what the nation expects from them.

(The writer, formerly an aide to late Prime Minister Vajpayee, was actively involved in the meetings of opposition parties that chose Sinha as their common candidate)



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Girish Kuber writes: Shiv Sena has failed to grow into a mature political party. In the past too, this led to the alienation of leaders, from Chhagan Bhujbal to Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray.

Of all the revolts that the Shiv Sena has faced in over 50 years of its existence, the current one undoubtedly looks the most threatening. Still, one can find a common thread that is responsible for every fissure: The Shiv Sena’s consistent failure to convert itself from a rag-tag sanghatana (organisation or union) into a mature political party. The Sena was formed in 1966 to espouse the cause of the “sons of the soil” and help the Marathi manoos get enough jobs in PSUs and banks. With this limited goal, it was easy to run the organisation — which its founder, the late Balasaheb Thackeray, did. The Sena smelled political success only after the rise of Hindutva. It was easier for it to add a dash of religion to its regional appeal. This expanded the Sena’s clout and political footprint.

However, as it enjoyed the concoction of regional plus religious politics, it continued to ignore the most crucial element on its journey to becoming a political force: Its decision-making process. Modern political parties demand a proper decision-making mechanism, even if power remains in the hands of a chosen few. Such a mechanism addresses the aspirations of its second- or next-rank leaders, besides keeping the outfit engaged. It also helps everyone in the system feel proud of “being consulted” on important issues, even if some of their opinions are not considered.

This is exactly what the Sena has consistently failed to do. The history of its rebellions underlines this. The Sena received its first jolt in 1991 when Chhagan Bhujbal joined hands with Sharad Pawar to join the Congress. This happened against the backdrop of the Sena supremo Bal Thackeray’s reluctance to take note of the post-Mandal reality and make the necessary changes in the party organisation. Thackeray senior, to his credit, never believed in caste politics, and dismissed the issues raised by Bhujbal, an OBC leader. Such was the former’s clout that Bhujbal lost his assembly seat in the following election.

The next big split that the Sena experienced was in July 2005, when former chief minister Narayan Rane decided to quit the party. Like Bhujbal, Rane too didn’t leave for want of a post or portfolio. His grouse, too, was that he was being ignored in decision-making. A few months later, the Sena had another high-profile exit: that of the younger firebrand leader Raj Thackeray. He had felt sidelined in the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena and decided to float his outfit, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). After the MNS’s spectacular success in its maiden election in 2009, in which it sent 13 members to the 288-member state legislature, Raj Thackeray faced a similar exodus.

Ironically, the same reason lies behind the situation that both Thackerays face, time and again: Their inability to convert their outfits into political parties. In the Shiv Sena’s case, the failure is bigger because of its history and the heights it has scaled. It was all the more important for it to fortify its organisation and be more vigilant after it antagonised the BJP, its powerful and ruthless partner, to form the government with the Congress and NCP. Hurt and humiliated by its estranged partner, the BJP was never going to allow the SS-NCP-Congress government to complete its term.

Armed with central agencies, the BJP adopted a two-pronged strategy to weaken Shiv Sena. It kept accusing, if not threatening, minister after minister in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government with serious corruption allegations which were promptly taken note of by the “efficient” central agencies. At the same time, it spared certain leaders and started “investing” in them, one of whom was Eknath Shinde. The typical Sena-style strongman, Shinde had the responsibility of the most resource-rich ministries in the state cabinet. Along with the extremely lucrative urban development portfolio, he also handled the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) which has awarded contracts worth hundreds of crores of rupees. Interestingly, the ever-alert BJP could never spot any misdeed in Shinde’s ministry.

The first sign of success for the BJP’s strategy came when another Shiv Sena strongman Pratap Sarnaik came out in the open to demand an alliance with the BJP. Thanks to a couple of raids by the Enforcement Directorate in the Topsgrup security scam and the attachment of his firm and plots in the alleged NSEL (National Spot Exchange Ltd) scam, Sarnaik was candid when he asked Uddhav Thackeray to sever ties with the NCP and Congress and return to the saffron fold. It’s no coincidence that Eknath Shinde too wants the same. “I won’t mind even if I am denied a ministry, but for Hindutva’s sake please return to the BJP,” Shinde said. Sarnaik is accompanying Shinde in the ongoing revolt. The difference between the earlier revolts and the current one is the absence of Sena patriarch Bal Thackeray. His presence was the reason the earlier splits were solitary and not many had accompanying defectors, unlike this time where it looks like a vertical split. With the Sena missing a larger-than-life leader, along with the absence of a “party” structure, it has been dealt a fatal blow by Shinde.

It would be naive, however, to believe that behind Shinde’s effort to split the Shiv Sena is his pursuit of Hindutva alone. It will be equally imprudent to swallow the Sena’s allegation that Shinde and company are being lured by the BJP. Along with the BJP’s strategy, it is the Sena’s style of decision-making that compels its leaders to look outside the party for that crucial element that all leaders worth their salt crave: Importance. Even if it survives the latest threat, the Sena’s future depends on how quickly it understands this and converts itself into a full-fledged political party. This means that it has to give up its sanghatana-style behaviour.

The writer is editor, Loksatta



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Suhas Palshikar writes: The idea seems to be that by not mentioning inconvenient facts, the regime can not only run away from reality, but more importantly, ensure that students do not develop the critical faculty to look at society and politics.

Chopping off sections from a textbook is much easier than writing one. Yet, the deletions made to social science textbooks by the NCERT — revealed by an Indian Express investigation — need to be taken seriously as an act of rewriting. This revision touches on vital points about the state-citizen relationship, the government’s vision of democracy, and how it imagines an ideal Indian society.

After eight years in power, the BJP has not been able to evolve a concrete statement that would form the basis for new school textbooks as per its ideological inclinations. But it entertains disdain for academic efforts and manifests cynical courage in “editing” school textbooks. As reported by this newspaper, social science textbooks have undergone three rounds of editing since 2017. Whatever the official reasons proffered for this, the fact remains that these deletions speak of a certain kind of approach to textbooks, pedagogy, and politics.

Of course, some deletions are purely ad hoc on the face of it and pertain to political facts unpalatable to the present regime. The violence against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002 falls into this category. But then, curiously, the discussion on Emergency has also been taken out of the books. In purely tactical terms, this could be a calculated deletion to keep the Congress quiet by an unstated quid pro quo: We delete what we don’t want but we also delete what you may not want. It will be interesting to see how the Congress responds to this and whether, after more than four decades, it has the courage to make course corrections on this issue and admit its mistake. In any case, the deletions are not merely about what the government and ruling party don’t like to be mentioned. They are more about formulating social science textbooks and, in fact, the idea of social sciences itself.

In this sense, the deletions also indicate the deep suspicion of social sciences among the powerholders and their attempt to re-formulate these disciplines, not just to change their textbooks. How to imagine the social sciences and introduce contemporary social and political processes to students of social sciences is a challenging question. Social scientists are facilitators of critical thinking among students and readers. Rulers uncomfortable with critical thinking seek to restructure the social sciences. The current bout of deletions needs to be understood from this perspective. The idea seems to be that by not mentioning some inconvenient facts, the regime can not only run away from reality but more importantly, also ensure that students do not develop the critical faculty to look at society and politics. This could be the larger purpose behind deleting the sections on the Gujarat violence and Emergency. The same logic applies to two other major deletions: The mention of caste injustice as part of India’s social reality and the discussion of protest movements as a vital part of India’s democracy.

Together, these deletions suggest that by undoing what is already there in the textbooks, the government is trying to rewrite the ideas of society and politics and re-envisage the purpose of social sciences. Often neglected in schools, social science subjects often become an arena of deep ideological battles for two reasons. One, their subject matter. The other, as mentioned above, pertains to their potential to develop a questioning attitude. Both these have a robust subversive possibility that only a healthy democracy can tolerate. Governments that harbour non-democratic tendencies are ill at ease with social science textbooks. To overcome this complication and to reconcile with the formal need to include social sciences in school curricula, three strategies are adopted.

The first strategy is heavy governmental control over curricula and textbooks and emphasis on avoidance. The bouts of deletions represent this strategy. In India, all governments have resorted to it. By deleting sentences and chapters, the government seeks to avoid students from being introduced to certain processes. If in political science this pertains to Gujarat violence, in history textbooks, it pertains to Mughal rulers. The avoidance is on display in deleting the discussion on Gujarat violence. Both the Emergency and Gujarat violence mark the failure of multiple institutions. Are these not important moments that students studying Indian politics should be introduced to? The answer for the present regime seems to be in the negative.

Parenthetically, the deletion of the sections on Gujarat violence marks an admission that there is something about that episode in 2002 that needs to be hidden from the public domain.

The other strategy is to present an idealised picture of society and politics by sanitising textbooks. This is being done on the caste question.

Instead of allowing students to comprehend caste as a system of injustice, the deletions seek to present an ideal and imagined Indian/Hindu society in which caste is only a marginal or slight distortion. To achieve this, textbooks are made to adopt a formalist approach wherein a mechanical mention is made of institutional designs. While this would make the subject matter uninteresting, it would also mean that students will not be introduced to the actual functioning of institutions.

The third strategy is probably the most crucial one: It involves a restatement of the moral bases of socio-political processes. The deletion of the chapters on the Emergency and protest movements needs to be seen in this context. The short-term politics of the BJP requires shaming the Congress for imposing the Emergency. But its long-term politics upholds two ideas. One is the idea of a strong state that seeks to tame the citizen’s energy and the other is the idea of formal and minimum democracy as substantive democracy. Emergency represents the rulers’ determination to tame the citizens and that is precisely what the present regime has been doing for the past eight years. Therefore, dropping the chapter on the Emergency is not merely a short-term political move, but a decision informed by the broader perspective that citizens need to be regulated heavily because the nation-state represents all wisdom. The deletion of the section fits well with the goal of reframing the relations between authority and citizens.

Similarly, in the case of the chapter on protest movements, the purpose is to reformulate the idea of democracy. The textbook is predicated on the idea that theoretically, protests represent citizen initiative and in practice, they curtail governmental authority. In place of this understanding, the government seeks to propagate the idea of minimalist and formal democracy that’s based largely on the regular conducting of elections. Protests are seen as a challenge to democracy rather than as a phenomenon enriching it.

Democracy involves not merely competition, but also struggles and popular protests. In this sense, democracy is a messy affair. But underneath that mess, there is also an innate capacity to challenge all powers. This is exactly what the “rationalised” textbooks seek to avoid desperately.

The writer, based in Pune, taught political science and was one of the two chief advisors for NCERT political science textbooks



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While political drama still unfolds in Maharashtra, two things did become clear after CM Uddhav Thackeray’s address yesterday evening. First, that the Maha Vikas Aghadi government is most likely headed towards a fall and, second, that Shiv Sena is experiencing a savage split. On the first count, not only did Uddhav say in so many words that he was ready to resign, for the most part Shiv Sena’s alliance partners have made it clear that they think of the current crisis as solely of its own making. Neither NCP nor Congress has been seen losing breath trying to save the MVA government.

As for Sena’s future, Eknath Shinde and his rebel band are closing in on the mark where they will be able to dodge the anti-defection bullet, leaving Uddhav with the rump of the party. Sena’s internal structure will be further weakened by a prolonged fight over who is truly carrying on Balasaheb’s legacy, a fight that started because of politics but has substantive ideological dimensions.

BJP had Sena on the backfoot even before all this. When the two struck an assembly pre-poll alliance for the first time in 1990, BJP won 42 seats with 10.7% vote share while Sena won 52 seats with 15.9% vote share. By 2019 while Sena was still in the same zone – 56 seats and 16.4% vote share (behind NCP’s 16.7%) – BJP had 105 seats with 25.7% vote share. The “Hindu Hriday Samrat” title had also left the Sena leader. Congress is finding its vote share gobbled by Congress-looking parties, but a BJP-looking party is finding it difficult to survive the BJP juggernaut.

Today’s Thackeray still says “Garv se kaho hum Hindu hain” but simultaneously tries to strike moderate notes. What if too few of his party leaders and cadres have been onboarded in this transition? If Bal Thackeray’s strong bond with Sainiks has been left behind along with his “tod-fod” politics, this gentrification may end up costing Uddhav’s Sena very dear. The very alliance that got him the coveted CMship may be his undoing, with accommodations made for NCP-Congress alienating many Sainiks. At least this is the narrative Shinde has galvanised, by claiming that his band would never betray Balasaheb’s Hindutva for the sake of power. However the Maharashtra drama plays out, Uddhav’s version of Sena is in deep trouble.



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Over two lectures in the UK this week, Supreme Court judge DY Chandrachud foregrounded key points about the overarching goal of the Indian Constitution and its relevance when the state is no longer the primary employer. In one lecture he said the Constitution’s transformative dimension comes from its attempt to remedy discrimination. Flowing from it, working towards equality needs to consider pre-existing social and economic imbalances. Hence, the need for affirmative action.

In another lecture, he located this goal in the backdrop of India’s economic transformation. The state, earlier the primary employer, is now a facilitator of private participation in economic activity. The Constitution’s provisions against discrimination in public employment exists only against the state. This, therefore, leads to the question if there’s a need for a comprehensive anti-discrimination law. The case against any form of discrimination is unexceptionable. But a discourse on constitutional protections in private employment is of relevance to only a sliver of the workforce as the structure of employment puts most of them beyond the ambit of legal safeguards.

A mere 21% of the workforce earns a regular salary and not all of them in workplaces covered by legislation. In 2019-20, just 16.6 million people out of more than 400 million-strong workforce were employed in factories covered by legislation. Therefore, most Indians work without any legal protection against discrimination. If the constitutional promise is to be realised, India first needs an enabling economic condition that lifts most people to a level where legal protections kick in. It’s possible only through an environment that allows the economy to formalise. That’s the pre-condition to actually access constitutional rights. A sweeping anti-discrimination law now would just be a paper tiger. A charade of our constitutional fidelity.



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Governments must step up efforts to reduce and regulate emissions from human activities, increase programmes to help people adapt to climate impacts, improve resilience, and implement robust disaster management and recovery plans. Improving governance structures is critical to minimising and mitigating climate impacts. Rainfall in the pre-monsoon March-May period this year was 62% above normal and 109% excess in the first 12 days of June.

The floods in Assam have, on last count, affected 5.5 million people across 32 districts. The extreme rainfall can be attributed to warming temperatures. Adverse impacts of climate change-induced extreme weather have been exacerbated by deforestation, unregulated or poorly regulated construction, hill-cutting and riverbed mining, all prevalent in the eastern state. It is imperative that both central and state governments mainstream climate-change impacts in their development and economic choices.

Governments must step up efforts to reduce and regulate emissions from human activities, increase programmes to help people adapt to climate impacts, improve resilience, and implement robust disaster management and recovery plans. Improving governance structures is critical to minimising and mitigating climate impacts. Rainfall in the pre-monsoon March-May period this year was 62% above normal and 109% excess in the first 12 days of June.

The sustained pre-monsoon extreme rainfall tested the capacity of the Assam administration, which was unable to provide adequate support as only 7% of districts had updated disaster management plans. Flows of disaster-related relief and recovery have to improve. The Assam government, with central support, must implement policy geared to reduce and mitigate human activities that increase vulnerability without adversely impacting livelihoods. It must implement plans to help populations adapt to the climate impacts, such as better river and overflow management. Nearly 300 embankments across 20 districts were breached resulting in the flooding of some 6,000 villages in Assam. Without proper planning, sustained economic and non-economic losses will mount, undermining development gains and human well-being.
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RBI's concern over new-age companies assuming a lender's role without building sufficient safeguards is not entirely misplaced. An unsecured business can boomerang if not managed properly. Its April master direction on credit and debit cards, that includes NBFCs as card issuers, has set a ₹100 crore net worth requirement for finance companies to issue cards with a prior nod from RBI to enter the card business.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Payments Vision 2025 document (bit.ly/3xQkKjE) released last week vows to develop a conducive framework for long-term growth of prepaid instruments (PPI) with security of transactions. This signals the regulator's intent to encourage innovation in this segment of the payments industry. Nevertheless, its recent communication to fintechs disallowing non-bank prepaid payment issuers from loading their credit lines on to their products has reportedly sent the wallet and 'buy now, pay later' industry into a tizzy. RBI's concern over new-age companies assuming a lender's role without building sufficient safeguards is not entirely misplaced. An unsecured business can boomerang if not managed properly. Its April master direction on credit and debit cards, that includes NBFCs as card issuers, has set a ₹100 crore net worth requirement for finance companies to issue cards with a prior nod from RBI to enter the card business. RBI wants fintechs to play by the rules, not by arbitrage. One bad apple can set the clock back for the entire industry.

PPI is an evolving area with multiple players and varied business models. Swiftly fine-tuning regulation and supervision for fintechs factoring in the dynamics of the financial sector makes sense. Fintechs must complement, rather than compete with, mainline banking. They can more effectively provide payment and credit services to geographically dispersed populations with small-ticket needs. The union of data, technology and money can transform finance, especially at the small end of the spectrum of individual borrowers, investors and businesses.

RBI wants to bring regulatory order in this space due to the rising impact of this segment at both macro (financial stability and cybersecurity) and micro (consumer protection) levels. Regulation must be light touch, enough to protect consumers with checks and cross-checks sensitive to the size of their business and the clientele they serve (e.g., MSMEs) and to the innovation and technology they bring to the table.
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In the last eight years, the Narendra Modi government has undertaken comprehensive defence sector reforms. During this period, India got its first Chief of Defence Staff, and the long-pending One Rank One Pension (OROP) issue was resolved. In addition, there is now a strong resolve to build a robust domestic military-industrial complex and the ordnance factory board has been corporatised to ensure efficiency and enhance innovation.

There is also a drive towards indigenisation of a large number of products, boosting defence exports, and a mission to modernise the armed forces. Moreover, the government has taken yet another shot at unknotting a complicated problem facing our armed forces by rolling out a revolutionary recruitment programme, Agnipath.

Agnipath is probably the most significant reform measure for the armed forces since 1962. It aims to make our forces youthful, fitter, and adaptable to new-age technologies, leading to improved operational effectiveness. The average age profile in the Indian Army is 32 years. This is puzzling because almost half the population is under 25. With this programme, the average age of soldiers will reduce by around five years.

The details of the programme are well-known and the government has responded with alacrity to address some of the issues that protesting youth have flagged. As a result, 75% of Agniveers, who would need employment after their Army tenure is over, can benefit from the 10% reservation, apart from preference for recruitment, in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and Assam Rifles. Additionally, 2/3/5 years of age relaxation beyond the prescribed upper age limit has been allowed.

While the government works to operationalise the plan, it is essential for us to appreciate the far-reaching impact of this policy change.

In many countries, there are short-term contracts for enlistment into the armed forces. For example, the United States allows two-year contracts. In India, the Short Service Commission for officers has been around for a long time. Till 1976, there was system of allowing seven-10 years of active service and five-eight years of reserve service.

As per Agnipath, Agniveers will be demobilised by the time they are 25, and starting afresh 25 may not be a struggle because they would have acquired skills and experiences while in the defence forces. The central government’s elite civil services allow entry up to 35 years and some state governments allow it up to 40 years.

When Agniveers exit the service, they will start with more than 11.5 lakh tax-free money. It can be used a seed capital for small entrepreneurial ventures. They will also have an option of accessing a bank loan of 18.2 lakh over three years or more, (Seva Nidhi package)

The provision of providing academic credit for their experience is also being worked out. The University Grants Commission and Indira Gandhi National Open University are also working to operationalise a programme that will allow Agniveers to earn an undergraduate degree or diploma with 50% credit earned through their training in the armed forces.

Agniveers who return to civilian life can seek opportunities in state police forces besides CAPFs. Many state governments like Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh have announced that preference will be given to Agniveers in their recruitment policy.

In addition, they can work in the private sector. They will be a disciplined, dynamic, motivated, and skilled workforce. The private sector will get more employable youth. Industry’s training cost for such employees will be significantly lower besides obtaining better productivity from them.

The central government recruited for almost seven lakh new jobs in the last seven years and plans to add another 10 lakh in the next 18 months. Thanks to the unprecedented capital expenditure of 7.5 lakh crore announced in the Union Budget, the job creation will be humungous. Recruitment by public sector enterprises and state governments will be additional.

Soon after Independence, the National Cadet Corps was formed to develop character, comradeship, discipline, secular outlook, and ideals of selfless service amongst young citizens. Agniveers will bring the same values to society, thanks to their military training. They will instill the same sense of pride and nationalism in the next generation and aid the nation’s overall development.

As we proceed with Agnipath, I am sure that the government will keep an open mind on refining it to respond to the concerns that have been raised.

Sushil Kumar Modi is Rajya Sabha MP and former deputy chief minister of Bihar.

The views expressed are personal



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Between July 15 and August 10, the National Testing Agency (NTA) will conduct the first common university entrance test (CUET) for admission in central universities at the under-graduate level, marking the beginning of an annual exercise with a scale, diversity and difficulty that is unprecedented for standardised testing in India.

CUET was envisioned to solve the problem of sky-high cut-offs clogging university admissions – an alternative for the more politically difficult process of standardising various boards of education. But as this newspaper has noted, establishing a common examination system will involve paper setters having to create a level-playing field for millions of students across region, class, caste, ethnicity and faith – coming from rural, urban and peri-urban areas with unequal and uneven access to schooling and coaching services. The government has taken the first step by announcing that the test will be conducted in 13 languages, but it will have to be alert that the new system doesn’t create new hierarchies of merit, or lock in new forms of inequalities. Moreover, people creating the question papers will have to set nearly 330 sets for the almost one million aspirants. With 86 universities and around 50,000 unique combination of subjects, only careful planning and monitoring will smoothen the process.

CUET is aimed at ending a system where students have to write multiple tests, and where despite securing upwards of 90% marks, struggle to enter reputed universities. But a single entrance exam can become an unreasonable assessment of a person’s merit, if not designed with empathy and awareness of ground realities. For this landmark reform, cautious and vigilant implementation will be key.



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Whichever way the ongoing saga in Maharashtra turns out – as of this writing, it is disadvantage Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Uddhav Thackeray, but there’s no telling how things turn out – there are key learnings in it for all political parties. The most important of these is the nature of unnatural alliances such as the MVA, the partnership of the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Congress that has governed Maharashtra since November 2019. These will remain unnatural and, as a result, fragile, with the widely differing ideologies of the parties creating strife and dissension within each (as it has in the case of the Shiv Sena). For months now, the perception has been that with chief minister Thackeray’s ill health, the NCP has been running the government, much to the discomfiture of many senior leaders of the Shiv Sena, who were already chafing at being asked to curb their natural tendencies (a letter doing the rounds speaks of an aborted visit to Ayodhya where a Ram temple is coming up) for fear that these could offend the two other partners of the alliance.

At a time when there is talk of a united Opposition taking on the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2024, the events in Maharashtra underline the challenges involved. The fragility of the MVA was evident during the Rajya Sabha and legislative council elections (when it won fewer seats than its numbers indicated) – and now it looks like only a miracle can keep the alliance in power. But Mr Thackeray faces a bigger challenge (than keeping the government afloat), which, depending on how events play out over the next few days, can take one of several forms. He will have to try and keep the Sena intact. Failing that, he will have to try and establish that his faction is the actual Shiv Sena. As things stand, a protracted battle before the Election Commission and in the courts, isn’t out of the question (there is already talk of many of the Sena’s Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs supporting the faction led by Eknath Shinde). Again, as things stand, Mr Thackeray appears willing to sacrifice the MVA should that save the Sena.

While that may just be a negotiating stance in this case, it is also the real problem of unnatural combinations, especially one where one or some or all of the constituent parties are strongly ideology-driven – at some point, a choice may have to be made between the survival of one (or more) of the parties and that of the alliance. And that’s a no-brainer.



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Southern India today is a land where language is imbued with profound meaning. From as early as the 1930s, the question of what language would be taught in schools, which language would be used by ruling classes, and more importantly, what identity a language signifies has been one of the great driving forces of modern South Indian politics. From a North Indian perspective, the most obvious example of this is the stiff resistance to claims that Hindi alone is a “national” language. From within South India, however, the picture is much more complex. For centuries, the languages of the South have had a turbulent relationship with each other and with those of the North, rooted in issues of caste, class, aesthetics, migration and political change.

Between Sanskrit and Vernacular

The great polities of medieval Southern India — a term referring broadly to the lands south of the Narmada river between c. 600–1500 CE — were among the most consistently innovative of their time. Over nearly a millennium of its history, we’ll see some recurring themes: A great openness to new ideas, a keen eye towards aesthetics and political utility, and to our modern eyes, an almost bewildering refusal to adhere to binaries in the use of language.

In the 4th century CE, with the emergence of the Gupta empire in Northern India, Southern Indian elites had begun to adopt new modes of organising and presenting themselves. Crucial to this was Sanskrit. Once a language used primarily for religious ritual, by the 4th century Sanskrit was also the language of an impressive body of metaphysical, aesthetic, dramatic, poetic, and worldly thought. The Gupta emperors made the use and mastery of Sanskrit integral to their self-presentation as culturally-accomplished men of war, ruling as kings of kings. Connected to this was the patronage of Puranic, temple-based Hinduism and the support of Brahmins, both as members of the ruling class and as ritual experts.

Within decades of this new politico-cultural complex gathering momentum in the Gangetic plains, we begin to see it in Southern India. New dynasties in the region corresponding to modern-day Karnataka used the Sanskrit language to elevate themselves from more commonplace chiefs, as well as to connect themselves to pan-Indian elites. Rather than Old Kannada — dialects of which most of their subjects spoke — dynasties such as the Chalukyas and Kadambas deployed Sanskrit in grants to temples and Brahmin institutions. Empire-builders such as Chalukya Pulakeshin II presented themselves as Sanskritic upper-caste kings descended from Puranic heroes, supporting concepts that had first taken root in the North, such as the patronage of Brahmins. By the 8th century, according to Sanskritist Sheldon Pollock, nearly 80% of Chalukya land grants were in Sanskrit. The extent of the Deccan adoption of Sanskritic culture was such that we can only form the blurriest outlines of what Old Kannada have been like before the emergence of these polities.

The extent of the Deccan adoption of Sanskritic culture was such that we can only form the blurriest outlines of what Old Kannada have been like before the emergence of these polities.&nbsp;(Shutterstock)
The extent of the Deccan adoption of Sanskritic culture was such that we can only form the blurriest outlines of what Old Kannada have been like before the emergence of these polities. (Shutterstock)

In the Tamil-speaking regions of the deep south, the Pallava dynasty of Kanchipuram was also notable for its patronage and use of Sanskrit. However, they were building a state in a very different language environment from that of the Deccan. The Tamil language already had a vast, prestigious corpus of literature, known as the Sangam literature, patronised by local chiefs and kings from as early as the 2nd century BCE. On the one hand, the utility of Sanskritic cultural ideas was irrefutable, and the Pallavas actively encouraged the settlement of Brahmins in villages through their territory while also establishing an important centre for Sanskrit literary production in the deep South. Pallava court poets such as Dandin were ranked by medieval writers in the same league as North Indian greats such as Kalidasa. On the other hand, Pallava scholar Emmanuel Francis has shown that they also adopted Tamil verse forms and royal titles in their inscriptions.

Interestingly, while modern South Indian politics sees a sharp distinction between “native” Tamil and “foreign” Sanskrit, it seems that the distinction was not as clear in medieval Tamil Nadu — especially when we think about the evolution of religion alongside politics and language. Prof Indira Vishwanathan examines the vibrant Tamil verses of the Shaivite bhakti saints Appar and Sambandar, composed around the 7th-8th centuries when the Pallava experiments with Sanskrit were taking hold. Competing with Jains for royal patronage, these saints travelled through Brahmin and Vellala (an upper-caste landowning group) villages, singing praises to the god Shiva in various temples.

To Sambandar, himself a Brahmin whose ancestors had been settled in the region by royals, the only way to be truly Tamil was personal devotion to Shiva, expressed in Tamil verse — but also, paradoxically, to know the Sanskrit Shaivite texts, the Agamas. These, he held, held the true essence of the Sanskrit Vedas, which (to him) had by this point become intertwined with elite Tamil culture. In the Tevaram, Book 6, verse 301.1, he sings:

“See the god [Shiva]! See him who is higher than the gods! See him who is Sanskrit of the North and southern Tamil and the four Vedas!”

Creating regional worlds

Ironically, it would be in the Deccan — where Sanskrit court culture had been adopted with such enthusiasm — that India’s first decisive turn away from cosmopolitan Sanskrit would take place.

In the mid-9th century CE, the Deccan emperor Rashtrakuta Amoghavarsha I commissioned a work known as the Kavirajamargam. This was the first text in human history to develop a theory of the relationship between a vernacular language and a cosmopolitan one such as Sanskrit, the domain of elites. With it, Amoghavarsha aimed to create a register of Kannada with aesthetic and poetic qualities comparable to the literature of the Sanskrit world. (In a sign of how pan-regional this world was, the Kavirajamargam was based on a Sanskrit poetic manual by the Pallava court poet Dandin from roughly a century earlier).

Amoghavarsha’s text set out rules for the composition and mixing of Sanskrit, Prakrit and Kannada sounds and grammatical rules, standardising the many dialects of Old Kannada into an elite register. Literature, at least according to Amoghavarsha and other Deccan elites, could only be produced in a vernacular language after rigorous philological analysis and the application of courtly aesthetic ideals. Folk ballads and epics must certainly have existed, but they were (rather condescendingly) not considered literature. Nevertheless, the effect of Amoghavarsha’s Kavirajamargam was immediate and dramatic: writes Pollock, “the proportion of records in Sanskrit shrank from about 80 percent in the period 741–819… to 15 percent in the period 819–974, and to a negligible 5 per cent by 996.”

It seems that courtly vernaculars such as this appealed to local elites, and helped bring them into imperial political structures in a way that Sanskrit simply could not. The Kavirajamargam is among the first signs that the South Indian worldview no longer required validation from Northern ideas; elites were instead seeking to create their own regional literary and cultural worlds. This can be seen in new local Mahabharatas such as Pampa’s 10th century Kannada Vikramarjunavijayam, where hitherto pan-Indian heroes such as the Pandavas perform rituals in the Krishna and Godavari rivers and go into exile in Deccan forests. By the 11th century, Telugu also saw its first Mahabharata; while this was not based on a formal manual like the Kavirajamargam, it also had considerable Sanskrit influence, especially in poetic metres and vocabulary.

A similar trend away from Sanskrit can be observed in the Tamil regions with the meteoric rise of the Chola empire in the 11th century. Like their Deccan contemporaries, the Cholas also moved towards producing literature in their own language. In a neat reversal of the Pallava’s use of Tamil-inspired Sanskrit, the Cholas used Sanskrit-inspired Tamil in their royal panegyrics or meykkirtis. Chola military expansion also led to Tamil becoming a truly trans-regional language, with Tamil enclaves in Sri Lanka and even China speaking it. Indeed, according to Tamil scholar David Shulman, Sri Lankan Tamil continues to preserve unique medieval linguistic features.

Indeed, medieval South Indians’ interest in producing elite literature in their own language, based on advanced linguistic and aesthetic ideas, was unparalleled in the subcontinent’s history.&nbsp;(Shutterstock)
Indeed, medieval South Indians’ interest in producing elite literature in their own language, based on advanced linguistic and aesthetic ideas, was unparalleled in the subcontinent’s history. (Shutterstock)

There was nothing comparable to this outpouring of vernacular literature in North Indian courts, which continued to produce Sanskrit literature. Indeed, medieval South Indians’ interest in producing elite literature in their own language, based on advanced linguistic and aesthetic ideas, was unparalleled in the subcontinent’s history. North Indians would only follow suit centuries later. South Indian elites even mention North Indian vernaculars more than their North Indian contemporaries: Someshvara III, Chalukya emperor of the Deccan, mentions forms of Awadhi, Bangla, Oriya, Gujarati, Magadhi, and Marathi in his encyclopedic Manasollasa of the late 12th century. Quite tellingly, he considers them suitable only for song rather than elite literature, since none of them had received the rigorous philological study that South Indian vernaculars had by this point.

Universes of the vernacular

By the 13th century, two transregional superstates that had dominated Southern India — the Chalukya empire of the Deccan and the Chola empire of the Coromandel coast —were in terminal decline. Kalyana, the Chalukya capital, had been located at the crossroads of the Deccan at the intersection of the Telugu, Kannada, and Marathi-speaking zones. The empire’s political structure relied on the patronage of religious institutions by landowning elite castes; due to its transregional ambitions, it had also continued to patronise Sanskrit (as noted earlier, there is no neat binary in South Indian linguistic history). In the late 13th century, an unprecedented Shaivite movement by lower castes and craftsmen shook the Chalukyaempire to its foundations. A major factor in the success of these “Heroic Shaivas” or Virashaivas was their willingness to use commonly-spoken dialects of Old Kannada, set to folk metres, rather than elite courtly languages. Indeed, Kannada scholar HS Shivaprakash argues that the need to appeal to large numbers of people made the poems of the Virashaivasone of the most important impulses in Kannada literary history.

The destruction of Kalyana — which some historians link to the Virashaivas — led to smaller regional empires emerging in each linguistic zone formerly dominated by the Chalukyas. A spectrum of patronage from newly-emerging Marathi in the north to well-established courtly Kannada in the south, corresponding roughly to where they were spoken, could be observed. To the east, the regions corresponding to modern-day Telangana, which had hitherto seen the use of both Telugu and Kannada, began to emphasise Telugu as a way of setting themselves apart from their former Chalukya overlords. The Kakatiya dynasty of Warangal expanded to the Andhra coast, where we have already seen Telugu literature being produced; henceforth Telangana would increasingly be identified as Telugu-speaking, as Telugu peasant-warriors and poets from the coast moved into the Deccan. As a Shudra dynasty, the Kakatiyas shunned the high-caste structures that the Chalukyas had used, instead developing a system that used local military men known as nayakas (“leaders”).

This complex linguistic tapestry was disrupted by the armies of Delhi in the 14th century. As disastrous as this was for older kingdoms, it led to two fascinating linguistic developments. The first was the fusion of Hindavi, the language of Delhi, with regional Marathi, Telugu and Kannada to create Dakhni — Urdu’s older South Indian sibling, that would go on to sparkle in Deccan Sultanate courts till the 17th century. The second was the meteoric rise of Telugu. The new Vijayanagara polity, which grew to dominate South India, relied extensively on Telugu nayakas from erstwhile Kakatiya territories to maintain its control — many of them of mercantile or “lower” caste backgrounds. Nayakas would establish polities in Tamil Nadu in the 15th century, while the Vijayanagara imperial centre invested enormously in highly ornate, musical Telugu compositions. After the decline of Vijayanagara in the 16thcentury, its nayakas would make Telugu the most important cosmopolitan language of the South, a dynamic that would last until well into the 19th century. Of course, the picture continued to be quite complex at the local level — in Tirupati and Srisailam, great centres for Telugu devotional poetry, texts were also composed in Tamil and even Marathi.

From engaging with the North to creating their own regional worlds, the languages of South India have a history as rich and complex as any in the subcontinent — policymakers ignore this at their peril. However, though modern linguistic states and politics reduce much of these interactions to binaries, history shows us that languages, like people, are complicated and ever-shifting. The very syllables that South Indians speak today have stories that transcend simplistic regional boundaries, full of turbulent political and religious history.

Anirudh Kanisetti is a public historian and author of Lords of the Deccan

The views expressed are personal



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In his final remarks before the Constituent Assembly on November 25, 1949, BR Ambedkar said, “The Constitution can provide only the organs of State such as the legislature, the executive and the judiciary. The factors on which the working of those organs of the State depends are the people and the political parties they will set up as their instruments to carry out their wishes and their politics.”

The Republic’s legislative history can be split almost equally, with legislatures before 1985 on one side and those after it on the other. Before 1985, our legislators had the constitutional protection to speak their minds. They had the option to disagree with the stand taken by their political parties and vote according to their conscience in Parliament and state assemblies. That year, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s government passed the anti-defection law, muting legislators’ voices across the country. Ostensibly its purpose was to prevent legislators from defecting and destabilising governments. But the statute’s text indicates its purpose was also to allow political parties absolute control over legislatures.

First, the law prevented legislators from voting against the party line on any issue in the legislature. If its purpose was to curb defections and ensure stable governments, it could have limited political parties to force lawmakers to vote as per its wishes only when the future of a government was at stake. Second, the law did not limit itself to voting. It had a wider ambit, and restricted a legislator from speaking on an issue contrary to the stand of their political party. And finally, it was also made applicable to members of the Upper House, even though they have no say in deciding the continuity of a government. This law has fundamentally changed the nature of Parliament and state legislatures. It has a chilling effect on the speech of Members of Parliament (MPs) in the Lok Sabha and Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in state assemblies. They depend on their party’s ticket to fight the next election, and the anti-defection law chains them to their political parties. Popularly elected MPs are now hesitant to take a stand even on technical issues to avoid inviting the ire of their party leadership. And since MPs are not free to vote, political parties do not need to build consensus on issues.

The anti-defection law has had a similar adverse impact on state legislatures. These institutions have become less deliberative and simply a rubber stamp for the state government’s ideas, passing most laws without any deliberation or discussion.

In the ongoing crisis engulfing the government in Maharashtra – and similar turmoil previously in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and other states – the anti-defection law has been in the spotlight, not only for its importance in deciding whether the government falls, but also for the ways in which political parties have found ways around the law. Visuals of lawmakers being herded from state to state have underlined their lack of independence and the fraying relationship between a party and a lawmaker. Last year, state legislative assemblies only met for an average of 21 days. And in 2020, nearly half the bills passed in state legislatures were cleared on the same day that they were introduced.

But the effect on the Rajya Sabha has been the most dramatic. The Constitution framers visualised two broad roles for the second chamber. First, as a revising chamber, it checks hasty legislation passed by the popularly elected Lok Sabha. And second, it was supposed to be a forum where MPs could voice the concerns of the states they represented at the national level.

Shortly after the passage of the anti-defection law, a vote came up in Rajya Sabha concerning Article 249 of the Constitution. This provision empowers the Upper House to pass a resolution, allowing Parliament to make a law on a state subject. The Justice Sarkaria Commission on Centre-state relations analysed the voting pattern on this particular vote and found that voting along party lines and one party dominating the process in Rajya Sabha weakened its ability to represent the states. The Rajya Sabha’s functioning as a Council of States has been a mixed bag. In a few cases, it has been able to check hasty legislation. For example, in the last 70 years, it has rejected five bills passed by the Lok Sabha. On three occasions, the Upper House’s disagreement has resulted in a joint sitting. But in many cases, the Upper House has passed laws without adequate scrutiny and deliberation.

For decades, political parties wanted to have a greater say in who got elected to the Upper House. A 2003 law piloted by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government achieved this. It first required MLAs to show their votes to their political parties before casting them. And it allowed political parties to field outsider candidates to represent a state in Rajya Sabha. Both these steps contributed to fundamentally changing the nature of the Rajya Sabha.

Rajya Sabha MPs are now more aligned with their political parties than with the state they represent. Consequently, House proceedings have become more political, and witness more disturbances. As articulated by sitting Rajya Sabha chairman Venkaiah Naidu, productivity of the Upper House (the amount of time it functioned compared to the total time available) fell over the years – 87% during 1998-2004, 76% during 2005-14 and 61% during 2015-19.

These legislative measures have strengthened political parties at the cost of legislatures. It has left many assemblies with eroded powers of deliberative lawmaking. At a time when the nation’s attention is stuck on a political crisis in Maharashtra and in a year we mark 75 years of Independence, the country should seriously think about securing the freedom of our legislatures and legislators.

Chakshu Roy is the head of legislative and civic engagement, PRS Legislative Research

The views expressed are personal



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The appointment of General Manoj Pande as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) in April sparked a flurry of news articles about how he, as the first person to head the Army from the corps of engineers, broke a glass ceiling. But such commentary, including in hindustantimes.com, was flawed because the government followed the established principle of appointing the senior most Army commander as the COAS – a time-tested tradition to keep the force apolitical.

For decades, the corps of engineers (popularly called sappers) has been the most-sought after arm in the Army. Only cadets who placed in the first 20 in the Indian Military Academy stood a chance. Even late Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw had picked the sappers as his first choice as a cadet, but didn’t make it. There were seven Army commanders from the sappers who would have been considered for COAS, but none of them were the senior-most officer when the vacancy rose. It was only a matter of chance, and time.

The number of officers in the corps of engineers is small, compared to other arms. The number becomes even lower due to a particular feature of the force’s management.

The Army categorises the five main arms into two categories – the combat arms, which comprises infantry, armoured corps and mechanised infantry and the combat support arms, which includes artillery engineers and signal corps. Officers of the first group are in the general cadre and promoted to the highest ranks accordingly. But officers from the second group are kept outside the general cadre and transferred only by special selection at the brigadier level. Many opt out of moving to general cadre because they lose their position and standing in their original corps.

They are further disadvantaged by a policy of promotions beyond brigadier – which divides aspirants into two streams, the command stream, and staff stream. Records show that officers from combat support arms are generally slotted for promotions in the staff stream. Thereby, the number of officers from the sappers available for promotion in the general cadre command stream is low.

By virtue of the needs of their battlefield role, the training of engineer troops takes more than twice as long as that of an infantry or armour soldier, because a sapper needs to be triple skilled – have the same basic fighting skills as an infantry man, be a skilled combat engineer, and a skilled technical tradesman.

After commission, officers are subjected to a 3.5 years training in engineering. The first six months are devoted to combat engineering such as assault bridges, mine clearing and demolition. The remaining time is dedicated to a high-quality degree course in civil engineering. In service, they are exposed to the same pattern of service as other arms. Sappers are front-line troops and are required to undertake tasks for which they are being specially trained i.e. in building defences, clearing mines and crossing rivers.

The record of the sappers in battlefield bravery, proficiency and presence is second to none. There is no gallantry medal that has not been awarded to sappers. In 1942, 2nd Lieutenant PS Bhagat (Bombay Sappers) was awarded the Victoria Cross for exceptional gallantry and bravery in the battle of Keren Crescent, becoming one of only two Indian Army officers to get the honour. In 1947, Lieutenant RR Rane (Bombay Sappers) was awarded the Param Veer Chakra for gallantry in clearing mines and road blocks in the capture of Rajouri from Pakistan. In 1971, Major VR Choudhary was awarded the Maha Veer Chakra posthumously for exceptional gallantry in the mine breaching operation in the battle of Basantar.

This is true of forces worldwide. Some of the greatest commanders of the Allied Powers in World War I and II were engineers. Field Marshal Herbert Kitchener was an officer from the corps of engineers of the erstwhile British Army who rose to become commander in chief of the Indian Army. In World War I, he was appointed Secretary of State for War and oversaw the British forces. Douglas MacArthur rose to become the supreme allied commander of the US Forces in the Pacific in World War II. He was commissioned into the US Army Engineers and, for the first 10 to 14 years of service, served in US Army engineer units.

A sapper is promoted as Army commander after having successfully commanded a corps. He reaches that position by dint of ability. Taking a page from military history, one can say that with an engineer at the helm, the Army is in safe and capable hands.

Brig (retired) HK Dhawan is a veteran of the corps of engineers and fought in the 1965 and 1971 wars

The views expressed are personal



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A new approach to financing climate crisis actions is shaping up globally, and is confirmed in the most recent statement made by the G7 development ministers.

In Berlin last month, the ministers expressed their intention to set up public-private financing partnerships to support energy transition in specific countries in Africa and the Indo-Pacific region. The initiative is ostensibly aimed at helping large developing economies to move away from coal in their electricity systems and achieve the Paris climate goals. The G7 leaders are likely to bless the initiative at their forthcoming summit later this month.

Interestingly, the countries whose names are doing the rounds as the first possible candidates are Indonesia and India. Both are large users of coal in their energy system and are going to be the consecutive chairs of G20 in 2022 and 2023.

Should India get on board if finance is offered through a partnership of this nature?

The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) initiative is apparently modelled after the South Africa JETP launched at the last climate conference in Glasgow with the support of the United Kingdom (UK), the United States (US), France, Germany, and the European Union (EU).

South Africa has been promised financing worth $8.5 billion in the first phase through mechanisms such as grants, loans and investments to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals. JETP is yet to roll out and its modalities are still in the works. Its hurried adoption as the template for future NDC financing, therefore, raises a number of questions.

First, it is not clear why climate finance is being offered through JETP when an agreed international mechanism under the Paris Agreement exists? The primary vehicle of the Agreement is the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has remained starved of funds ever since its inception in 2010. Although the Agreement does not bar bilateral, multilateral, and plurilateral channels for funding, the main problem is that such channels have generally pushed existing official aid and private investments into developing countries in the name of the climate crisis, with no additionality or concessionality. The additional benefits from JETP are not known.

Second, there is no guarantee whether JETP will make equity and debt finance available to the target countries at the scale and in the manner required for meeting clean energy needs. The crucial issue in international climate finance is the cost at which the private international capital will flow into developing countries to support their NDCs.

Almost 80% of the renewable energy finance in India is currently mobilised as debt finance from its own domestic financial system. JETP may, therefore, do nothing to alter this landscape and reduce exposure of investors to volatile international financial markets. Instead, it may focus on persuading the destination countries to tweak their regulations and policies to increase the attractiveness of global private investors by spreading the risk throughout the domestic system.

Third, JETP may revive the ghost of coal phase-out that haunted the Glasgow conference. The hosts have openly stated that moving away from coal and transition to renewable energy is their goal. The track record of many of the developed countries like Australia, Canada, and even the US can be called into question in this regard.

India has already invested and installed more renewable energy capacity in the last 10 years than many of them. The real constraint is not creating more solar or wind capacity but integrating it with the grid and decarbonsing the coal-dependent industry where alternative fuels are not available. JETP donors that are targeting the phase-out of coal in the power sector are silent about access to alternative fuels and technologies needed for industrial decarbonisation.

Lastly, India has standing relationship with several of its investment and technology partners like the US, France and UK. India and the US launched bilateral clean energy financing platform last year when John Kerry, the US Special Envoy on Climate, visited India.

The UK and India have a bilateral Sustainable Finance Forum to help prepare projects that can seek support from the Green Growth Equity Fund in India set up by the UK. Similar fora exist with France, Germany and Japan. The government may consider whether it is worthwhile to negotiate access to capital and technology through these for a, rather scout for new.

Ultimately, the transition of Indian energy system towards clean energy may depend on several factors, not just renewable energy from solar and wind. Even while investments in future coal plants are static, energy transition will need to be worked out through a strategy for low-emission growth of various sectors of economy both in the short term and long term. Paris Agreement calls all economies to do so at the earliest and submit it for international support through multilateral and international channels. India may well do so and come to grips with the sectoral issues in decarbonisation where critical financing support is needed.

RR Rashmi is a former Special Secretary to the Government of India and currently Distinguished Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)

The views expressed are personal



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In the last eight years, the Narendra Modi government has undertaken comprehensive defence sector reforms. During this period, India got its first Chief of Defence Staff, and the long-pending One Rank One Pension (OROP) issue was resolved. In addition, there is now a strong resolve to build a robust domestic military-industrial complex and the ordnance factory board has been corporatised to ensure efficiency and enhance innovation.

There is also a drive towards indigenisation of a large number of products, boosting defence exports, and a mission to modernise the armed forces. Moreover, the government has taken yet another shot at unknotting a complicated problem facing our armed forces by rolling out a revolutionary recruitment programme, Agnipath.

Agnipath is probably the most significant reform measure for the armed forces since 1962. It aims to make our forces youthful, fitter, and adaptable to new-age technologies, leading to improved operational effectiveness. The average age profile in the Indian Army is 32 years. This is puzzling because almost half the population is under 25. With this programme, the average age of soldiers will reduce by around five years.

The details of the programme are well-known and the government has responded with alacrity to address some of the issues that protesting youth have flagged. As a result, 75% of Agniveers, who would need employment after their Army tenure is over, can benefit from the 10% reservation, apart from preference for recruitment, in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and Assam Rifles. Additionally, 2/3/5 years of age relaxation beyond the prescribed upper age limit has been allowed.

While the government works to operationalise the plan, it is essential for us to appreciate the far-reaching impact of this policy change.

In many countries, there are short-term contracts for enlistment into the armed forces. For example, the United States allows two-year contracts. In India, the Short Service Commission for officers has been around for a long time. Till 1976, there was system of allowing seven-10 years of active service and five-eight years of reserve service.

As per Agnipath, Agniveers will be demobilised by the time they are 25, and starting afresh 25 may not be a struggle because they would have acquired skills and experiences while in the defence forces. The central government’s elite civil services allow entry up to 35 years and some state governments allow it up to 40 years.

When Agniveers exit the service, they will start with more than 11.5 lakh tax-free money. It can be used a seed capital for small entrepreneurial ventures. They will also have an option of accessing a bank loan of 18.2 lakh over three years or more, (Seva Nidhi package)

The provision of providing academic credit for their experience is also being worked out. The University Grants Commission and Indira Gandhi National Open University are also working to operationalise a programme that will allow Agniveers to earn an undergraduate degree or diploma with 50% credit earned through their training in the armed forces.

Agniveers who return to civilian life can seek opportunities in state police forces besides CAPFs. Many state governments like Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh have announced that preference will be given to Agniveers in their recruitment policy.

In addition, they can work in the private sector. They will be a disciplined, dynamic, motivated, and skilled workforce. The private sector will get more employable youth. Industry’s training cost for such employees will be significantly lower besides obtaining better productivity from them.

The central government recruited for almost seven lakh new jobs in the last seven years and plans to add another 10 lakh in the next 18 months. Thanks to the unprecedented capital expenditure of 7.5 lakh crore announced in the Union Budget, the job creation will be humungous. Recruitment by public sector enterprises and state governments will be additional.

Soon after Independence, the National Cadet Corps was formed to develop character, comradeship, discipline, secular outlook, and ideals of selfless service amongst young citizens. Agniveers will bring the same values to society, thanks to their military training. They will instill the same sense of pride and nationalism in the next generation and aid the nation’s overall development.

As we proceed with Agnipath, I am sure that the government will keep an open mind on refining it to respond to the concerns that have been raised.

Sushil Kumar Modi is Rajya Sabha MP and former deputy chief minister of Bihar.

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It has taken the Indian republic over seven decades to decide to give an adivasi woman from an extremely modest background, Draupadi Murmu, an opportunity to be the country’s President.

Leaving aside the symbolic importance of a leader making it to Rashtrapati Bhavan from the most underprivileged of social strata, or succumbing to a temptation to overstate its inspirational value to a larger demographic group sharing the identity, one must simply appreciate that for once a tribal leader, representing a large number of people, no longer needs see even the position of the First Citizen of the country as a glass ceiling.

Coming back to back to the successful nomination of incumbent President Ram Nath Kovind, a dalit leader, it must give the two most vulnerable social groups of India — the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes — an immense emotional satisfaction and an augmented sense of ownership of the country where a son and daughter of their own would head the Republic.

With numbers firmly in favour of the NDA, it stands to elementary reasoning that once the Bharatiya Janata Party headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to name Draupadi Murmu, her victory was almost a foregone conclusion.

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Born in Odisha, Ms Murmu would not only be the first tribal to make it to the highest position, but would also be the first from her state. This has compelled Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik to overenthusiastically jump on the NDA bandwagon on this issue. Given her credentials, the ruling party in alliance with the Congress in Jharkhand, the JMM, too, may find it hard to vote against her.

A teacher by profession, she has risen by her own diligent effort to becoming a minister in the alliance government between her party, the BJP, and Mr Patnaik’s party many years ago, before also becoming the first to complete a full five-year gubernatorial term in Jharkhand.

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Setting another first would be her age — the 64-year-old would be India’s first President to be born in an Independent India; just as Narendra Modi was India’s first PM to have been born in a free country. If she goes to win, as is most likely, India can be delighted that it has created a democratic setup that has finally allowed this significant moment. It is a welcome collective achievement for which all Indians can take pride.

A woman strengthened by life’s tragedies, she would share a lot about her personal journey with the President of the United States, Joe Biden; having lost her two sons, and husband, and yet never having given up her commitment to public life and service.

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But India is also rich in the contest. The Opposition candidate, Yashwant Sinha, is an equally gifted leader. A former bureaucrat from Bihar, a BJP man, a Union minister who presented more than one budget under former PM A.B. Vajpayee, he is a loyalist to L.K. Advani turned rebel against his own party who finally landed in TMC (Trinamul Congress) and has now become Ms Murmu’s electoral rival.

Either of them would represent the finest values of the Republic and are equally eminently bound to upholding the Indian Constitution and the high ideals of the presidential office.



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Francis Fukuyama’s recent book Liberalism and its Discontents revives the debate over the relevance of the subject. Tracing its rise to the nineteenth century, he examines how it relapsed into neo-liberalism and caused polarisation in many liberal democracies. In India, a victorious BJP in 2014 revelled in deriding liberalism as the vain preoccupation of the Khan Market Gang or the Lutyens’ Delhi set. The latter phrase is derived from the elite central part of the nation’s capital run by the New Delhi Municipal Committee, and popularly known as Lutyens’ Delhi.

The custodian of liberal democracy after the Second World War has been the United States of America. Fukuyama writes that alongside the US, “Germany, France, Japan and India were all established democracies by the second half of the twentieth century, although some, like the United States and India, have been backsliding in the last few years”. It is important to understand why this regression is underway at a time when autocratic states, now led by China, are working to gain allies and followers around the globe.

The Ukraine War has exacerbated this standoff as China and Russia had already declared a “no limits” friendship days before Russia started its “special military operation” against Ukraine. Though China has not apparently transferred weapons to Russia, it has, besides India, kept Russian revenues buoyant by the purchase of oil and gas. In 100 days of war, Russia’s oil exports earned Moscow $98 billion. Also, after its initial setbacks, the Russian Army, having scaled back its war objectives to capture crucial territories in the south and east, has been grinding forward more successfully. Meanwhile, the United States and other Nato members are somewhat belatedly transferring state of the art artillery to match Russian superiority in that area. The French system Caesar takes 40 seconds to automatically load the first shot and then fire 10 in under a minute. The US High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) is also quick, very precise and with extended range. BAE’s Archer can lob four shells a minute and move before the first shot hits the target. Speed is of the essence to not allow the enemy to locate the gun and fire back.

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But will that end the Ukraine war? The consensus is that it will not. If the aim is to deny Russia control over the entire Donbas region, then the war will persist. Perhaps no ceasefire will come till both sides are exhausted enough to seek it. But its global impact on the cost of food and energy is already evident. That is likely to impact politics in all democracies as the young people without jobs and the middle class which is facing a bleak future seek alternatives.

The democratic recession globally and retreat from liberalism cannot be ignored. Take Latin America, generally seen since the US expounded the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 as its exclusive zone of influence. Five Latin American nations boycotted the Summit of Americas in Los Angeles earlier this month, presided over by President Joe Biden.

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China, on the other hand, is the dominant trading partner and investor in most of these nations, boosting their infrastructure development. The Economist magazine warns that this may lead to not only democracies degrading to dictatorships but Latin America delinking from the West. At the virtual Brics summit on June 23-24, China is trying to enlarge the group to include more middle powers like Argentina and Mexico.

Sounds like déja vu and the mid-20th century when a bipolar world saw the rise of the nonaligned movement. The difference is that the second pole now has China in the lead, with Russia playing the deputy’s role, and India has unsettled border issues with the former.

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India’s concern is that while the external environment mutates as big powers wrestle for space and influence, there is also internal churn engendered by the BJP to alter the post-1947 constitutional compact. Fukuyama notes that while the big European powers were already nations before they became liberal democracies, the United States, and I would add India, were colonies and thus states before becoming nations. The US left the race issue unsettled when creating their union though the Constitution promised equality to all. In 1861, the American Civil War began to settle the issue. The victory of the anti-slavery North settled the principle though it was only in the 1960s that actual racial integration took place. But the consensus again fractured over immigration and globalisation, resulting in the victory of Donald Trump as President in 2016. The bulk of the Republican Party is still backing Trumpian lies, creating a fear that a recession-hit US may re-elect Mr Trump or a clone.

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In Europe, France has seen President Emmanuel Macron losing support in the just-concluded parliamentary election. A left-of-centre coalition came second. But the right-wing nationalists gained seats by a factor of ten. England is still teetering after the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Boris Johnson. President Biden has had to relent and reach out to Saudi Arabia to seek cooperation to bring oil prices down. In this unsettled world, the BJP’s priority is to consolidate its hold over domestic politics and implement its retooling of the Indian nation.

Fukuyama quotes an example of Conservative British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli who, against the wishes of his supporters, brought the Second Reform Bill in 1867 to widen the franchise. Fellow Conservatives called him a traitor but he laid the groundwork for the Conservative domination of British politics during the remainder of the 19th century. However, it is well recognised that “classic liberalism” is the most successful means to governing a diverse society.

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Will Prime Minister Modi realise this and become the Disraeli of India? But striking sections out of children’s history books, renaming places and cities, bringing down Opposition governments. unleashing the investigative agencies on Opposition leaders, etc., are not signs of dealing sensibly with India’s diversity. It’s true that the Congress too ignored that recognition of diversity also meant factoring in the majority community’s devotion to religion and pride in their cultural traditions, including confronting the past. The 1947 Partition did not bring closure to a lingering hurt. A new balance has to be found within the confines of the Constitution to discuss and consign the past. Fukuyama recommends the Greek advice of “nothing in excess”, or moderation. Can the BJP do some “course correction” or will an Opposition voice emerge to lead India back to the original path? The next two years are critical for India, both at home and abroad.



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The Uttarakhand government has been struggling to work with only 76 IAS officers in the state, even though it has an allocated cadre strength of 120 IAS officers. Of them, seven are on Central deputation. They include Ashish Joshi, Sridhar Babu Addanki, Jyoti Yadav, Raghav Langar, Mangesh Ghildiyal, and Amit Singh Negi.

Last week, state chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami got a partial wish-fulfilment when the Centre agreed to increase the state’s IAS cadre strength from 120 to 126 officers. Partial, because the state government had been demanding the IAS cadre be increased to 139, which the Centre has firmly rejected. It has its own mounting problem of a shortage of officers.

Uttarakhand’s plight is shared by several other states. But sources have told DKB that the current babu deficit is of the state’s own making. The All India Services cadre structure is reviewed every 10 years. The last time it was done was in 2010, when the state had the opportunity to ask for an increase in the cadre posts from 120, but it chose not to. Now it is feeling the pinch. And even the six new cadre posts will not make much difference on the ground.

Haryana IAS officers feel left out in UT Admin
The Haryana government has long claimed that it is getting a raw deal from the Chandigarh administration with UT cadre IAS officers cornering the key posts at the expense of Haryana cadre officers. The issue has reportedly been raised on several occasions, including by the state’s Additional chief secretary Rajeev Arora, with the UT administrator and Punjab governor Banwari Lal Purohit.

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Now Haryana chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar has escalated the issue by writing a letter to Mr Purohit expressing “unhappiness” at the “uneven distribution of departments to Haryana cadre IAS and IPS officers” in the UT.

Those in the know have informed DKB that Mr Khattar has claimed undue dominance of UT cadre officers, whether from the IAS or DANICS cadres, in the administration at the cost of officers from Haryana and Punjab. Apparently, most of the important posts have been grabbed by officers from the UT cadre. Further, Mr Khattar has claimed that the repatriation of two HCS officers earlier in February has made matters worse. He has also pointed out that the posts of UT home secretary and deputy commissioner, held by IAS officers deputed by Haryana, have had their powers and responsibilities reduced drastically.
Mr Khattar has also pointed out that in the recent reshuffle of IPS officers, the SSP (traffic) Manisha Choudhary, a Haryana cadre IPS officer, was divested of the charge of security, which was given to an AGMUT cadre officer.  

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The list of Haryana’s grievances is long, and Mr Khattar is now hoping that the UT Administrator is open to discussing the issue at the earliest.

Babu gets a dressing down for ‘wrong’ attire in court
Unlike IPS or defence personnel who are expected to appear in uniform while on duty, there is no “official” dress code for IAS officers, though during training they are urged to dress “appropriately”.

Leaving the issue open-ended and vague has sometimes landed babus in trouble. Most recently, the Patna high court pulled up Bihar IAS officer Anand Kishor, who is chairman of the state School Examination Board and principal secretary for housing and urban development.

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Kishor appeared for a court hearing wearing a crisp formal white shirt with trousers. So, what was wrong with the attire? The babu had not buttoned his collar and was not wearing a coat.

However, not everyone agrees with the judge, including some from the legal fraternity as well. While some said that the judge’s remarks were unwarranted and caused “unnecessary humiliation and anger”, others insist that any government official must be correctly dressed in court for dignity and decorum. If so, perhaps it is time to codify how government officials are to appear in public.

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Is it a feudal vestige or a progressive mindset? Reader, you decide.



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The exit of Naftali Bennett from prime ministership in Israel might only mean that Netanhayu Benjamin, former PM and now Opposition leader, will fancy his chances once again of staging a comeback. In fact, he had already moved into election mode within hours of the news of the collapse of the coalition and long before poll dates were to be fixed after an unprecedented diverse coalition cracked up in Israel.

Foreign minister Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party is to be caretaker PM when Israel goes to the polls for the fifth time in four years. He will also be PM when US President Joe Biden visits next month. His position may seem weak when he represents Israel but there is a commonality of security interests and the anxieties of a permanent existential crisis binding that country together which would mean his power and influence is not to be discounted.

An ideological clash in an ethnically and religiously diverse government — with eight radically different partners including a left leaning Arab party — regarding a law to renew a two-tier legal system in the West Bank that differentiates between Jewish settlers from Israel and Palestinians led to Mr Bennett’s rule becoming the shortest of any Israeli PM.

Mr Bennett was, however, convinced the experiment with such a coalition built to deny the political right was a success because ideological disagreements were temporarily set aside for the government to focus on “better education, better jobs, better infrastructure.” The government even passed a Budget that could not muster support in the legislature for three years.

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It is interesting that while half of Israel may be likely to plump for Mr Netanhayu, whose coalition governments led by his Likud party invariably proved more durable despite his not delivering on commitments made while cobbling them together, the other half chastises him for corrupting the office of PM even as an ongoing trial and a prospective conviction hang on him like a Damocles sword.

Whoever might lead the next government, it is unlikely that Israel’s firm “no” to a Palestine state and the definition of Iran as enemy state no. 1 will change.



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The guns of resistance to Western interference in Afghanistan may have stopped firing even as the odd bombing by IS terrorists spelt trouble for a country from which the US and Nato withdrew their soldiers barely a year ago. Afghanistan, however, continues to be disfigured by natural calamities like earthquakes as it sits in tectonically active terrain over a vast number of fault lines.

An average annual toll of 560 deaths a year from tremors does, however, pale when compared to the devastation in the early hours of Wednesday that a shallow 5.9 quake at six-mile depth wreaked in the Gayan and Barmal districts of Paktika in eastern Afghanistan close to the Pakistan border.

The Taliban may have celebrated their comeback in August 2021, after two decades, to govern the country but they have had little administrative experience. Over 75 per cent of the money in Afghan budgets used to come from western aid and that has stopped.

The humanitarian tragedy is of humongous proportions of an earthquake in a mountainous, landslide-prone region that may well have claimed thousands more lives than the 1,000 that was an early estimate of the toll as people were fast asleep in shanty mud-and-brick houses.

The world, including the West, must reach out with much more of the aid that has been set in motion despite the Taliban not even having thought of formally requesting the UN for assistance in the face of such a tragedy.

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The poignancy of the catastrophe of the most severe quake in a couple of decades may have struck home as survivors were said to be using their bare hands to dig into the rubble to search for people who may have been as fortunate to survive.

The scale of natural calamities adding to manmade disasters as in wars and conflicts inflicted on the country can be gauged from the statistical magnitude of the humanitarian and economic crisis that has overtaken the Afghan people — widespread hunger among about 20 million people representing half the population while at least 30 million are living in abject poverty, according to the UN.

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Add the toll from such disasters that are made worse by climate change and the picture of human misery would be complete. Not only our hearts but also the generosity of our purses should go out to the Afghans.



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A marriage with three partners seldom leaves any of them happy for long. An unsustainable affair, one without a common ideology, only a common enemy, was bound to fail sooner than later, brought down by the unbearable weight of its own contradictions.

The post-election alliance of convenience, without any ideological glue, tangentially against the mandate of the people of Maharashtra, stitched on the slick justification of interpreting politics as the art of the possible, lasted half its term purely as a pursuit of power.

The Shiv Sena got a mandate to form a government in the state as an alliance partner of the BJP, the senior party, but refused to stick to it over a disagreement over the chief ministerial post. The BJP, sensing a mandate being robbed, did its own slick manoeuvring, and came out embarrassed and exposed in the Ajit Pawar-backed oath-taking of Devendra Fadnavis.

Uddhav Thackeray became chief minister, his long-cherished dream after the MVA was created. The Aghadi was a brainchild of Maratha veteran Sharad Pawar who ensured that the NCP and the Congress accepted their ideological opposite, the Shiv Sena, a hardcore Hindutva party, into its fold. Their sole goal — keeping the BJP out of power.

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The NCP was eventually the only real beneficiary and controlled the government, and power, while the figurehead Mr Thackeray lost touch with his own party. The retaliation was only a matter of time, of when and by whom, not if. It came but not as a surprise, except for those who missed the signs.

The Rajya Sabha polls, followed by the elections for the members of the Legislative Council left little doubt for real watchers that rebellion was brewing in the Sena ranks. But the party heads were in denial.

Then Eknath Shinde made his surgical strike, claiming Hindtuva was the cause of his action, and evoked the commitment to the late Balasaheb Thackeray to assuage sentiments in the Sena rank and file, preventing any major popular uprising against the MLAs operating from a faraway destination in a “safe state”.

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As the drama unfolded on live TV, Mr Uddhav Thackeray woke up to the realities, too late, and offered too little by way of explanation, or a counter-offer. Clueless throughout, he quickly vacated the official CM’s bungalow, but dragged his feet when it came to putting in his resignation.

Amidst it all, the Congress had little role but tried to send its senior leaders, including former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath, who must know the pain of this BJP act too well to try to make a difference. They obviously did not succeed. The BJP has kept a happy silence, enjoying the best seats to the show.

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As the endgame nears, there are many questions that arise. Should pre-poll alliances which win an election change its partners? Should Central misuse of agencies like the CBI or ED for political ends be taken as a given, or a template created to ensure such risks are minimised? Are horses for courses a pragmatic reality, against which no didactic polemics have a chance?

In the end, there is only one satisfying lesson — the people must get a government they want, reflect, aspire and vote for. The rest is to ensure legal and Constitutional compliance with that will.



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Like Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being coaxed and cajoled to join a security pact under the leadership of the United States ostensibly to save democracy and strengthen global stability. Jawaharlal Nehru was adamant that India’s Asian destiny, of which he spoke ecstatically, could never mean playing second fiddle to a globally hegemonic America. Now, the world is waiting to see how Mr Modi responds to President Joe Biden’s flattering overtures and the courtship of high American officials.

Like his predecessors, President Biden wants an India that is not beholden to Russia on the American side. Kurt Campbell, his White House coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, calls the relationship with India the “most important for the United States in the 21st century”. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, stresses that India-US “convergence” on the Chinese challenge matters far more than the two countries’ differences over Russia. “We are investing in a relationship that we are not going to judge by one issue — even if that issue is quite consequential — but rather that we are going to judge over the fullness of time”, he explains.

Mr Modi’s tightrope walking on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — which Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, insists is not an invasion at all but a “special military operation” — is the immediate compulsion for the US and the West in general wooing him. The long-term rationale is the expectation that given New Delhi’s own historic problems with Beijing, the enemy’s-enemy logic will oblige India to support Washington’s strategy of containing an assertive and expansionist China.

Next month’s planned virtual summit of the clumsily-named “I2U2” (India, Israel, United Arab Emirates and the United States) grouping is one invitation to form a core group with the US. Another is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which was launched with much fanfare by 13 regional states — India again prominent among them — last month in Tokyo. Tokyo also saw the May 24 revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, which Mr Biden hints might now be revamped. A larger role for India? It’s also suggested that AUKUS, the nuclear submarine pact the United States signed last year with Australia and Britain, might be further developed. Again, for India’s benefit?

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Mr Campbell has already announced that the US and its allies are ready to offer Mr Modi more security guarantees which the Centre for a New American Security, the Washington-based think-tank that he co-founded in 2007, had recently discussed. “We need to help provide India with alternatives on the security side — that means not only the United States providing capabilities but partners like Britain, France and Israel”. The United States clearly wants much stronger intelligence, trade and economic links with New Delhi.

These overtures are to be contrasted with Washington’s cavalier attitude immediately after Independence in 1947, when it denied India weapons and information, snubbed New Delhi’s “attempt to establish a formal blueprint of relations”, and practised a clever sleight of hand to deny cooperation. India was classified “upwards to the category of countries receiving ‘restricted’ US military information” and “a deliberate effort [made] to furnish the Indian military attache with relatively harmless but somewhat impressive military information…”
India was then of “negligible positive strategic importance”, while Pakistan occupied “one of the most strategic areas in the world”. That the American perception had changed was evident when the joint statement issued by Mr Modi and President Donald Trump after the former’s 2017 state visit to the White House referred to the two leaders as “responsible stewards in the Indo-Pacific region…”, resuscitating a term that Karl Haushofer, the German geopolitician, probably first used in the 1920s.

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Not that India alone dominates Washington’s agenda. Alarmed by the Chinese advances in the Pacific region, an area of “enormous strategic importance”, according to Mr Campbell, the US has drawn up plans for its own counter-initiatives. President Biden’s July 13-16 tour of Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia is more a matter of domestic American politics, with the President anxious to secure oil supplies and arms sales. No doubt he also hopes that people won’t remember that he had labelled Saudi Arabia a “pariah”, the US intelligence report that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the 2018 murder of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi, or Washington’s oft-stated commitment to a two-state solution in Palestine.

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But the primary focus is on Russia and China. President Biden knows that India was trying to reduce its dependence on Russian arms even before Mr Modi took over. He also knows that Russia’s share of India’s oil imports has actually gone up to more than 18 per cent from only one per cent in April, making Moscow India’s largest supplier of crude after Iraq.

If this suggests ambivalence, so does Indian policy on China. The Chinese defence minister’s angry references to the Quad and AUKUS at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue may have been explained by Mr Campbell’s boast: “We’ve made behind-the-scenes, quietly remarkable progress in the areas associated with technology where not only the three countries (US, UK and Australia) are deeply engaged, but other partners are also supporting working groups.”

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But will this cooperation under the American aegis help India to regain the Himalayan territory that China occupies, persuade Beijing to drop its reservations about India’s nuclear status, vacate its naval bases and outposts surrounding India’s coastal waters, or cease to flood India with inexpensive consumer products and even Chinese-made figures of Hindu gods and goddesses?

Perhaps Mr Modi sees no incongruity in the last-mentioned trade since he reportedly sub-leased the steel frame and bronze cladding for the Rs 3,000-crore statue of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, the so-called “Statue of Unity”, to a Chinese company in Nanchang. President Xi Jinping must be tickled pink to contribute so substantially to a monument that is of immense iconic value to Mr Modi, his ruling BJP and their vision of India.

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Leaving aside the ethics of relying on Chinese technology for an emblem of Indian pride, India’s rulers are obviously not driven by the same degree of animus that inspires the West’s anti-China strategy. All the more reason, therefore, why, emulating Nehru’s refusal during the Cold War to be drawn into taking sides, Mr Modi too will probably continue to do business with Russia and China while verbally supporting the West.



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