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Editorials - 20-03-2022

In the five state elections, the vast majority of voters desired ‘development’ but voted for the status quo. Welfarism is useful, but is no substitute for real and durable development.

On March 2, 2020, Dr Harsh Vardhan, the then Health Minister, told Parliament that India was fully prepared to deal with the threat of coronavirus. The Minister said, “I don’t think that the people need to panic and wear a mask all the time at every nook and corner, out of fear. It is completely up to them if they want to wear (one) or not.”

As if on cue, one Dr Nitin tweeted: “I take pride in having a doctor himself own up the situation and look at it”, and added, “As a physician myself, I trust yourself and the medical system I belong to, that together we will easily beat #coronavirusinindia.”

Late in the evening of March 24, 2020, a nationwide lockdown was imposed. On July 7, 2021, as the second wave raged, Dr Vardhan was asked to resign!

Echo Chamber

I was reminded of Dr Vardhan and Dr Nitin when I read the reports for the month of February 2022 put out by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The ministry is the executive authority responsible for the management of the economy and the finances of the country: one can therefore understand the self-praise in the report. The RBI, however, is the monetary authority and is expected to speak frankly, even critically, about the management of the economy. Reading the two reports, and conceding that much of the facts and the data will be common, I was left wondering if they had been written by the same hand!

The RBI’s report on the State of the Economy starts on a sombre note: “The outlook for the global economy is beset with downside risks. Omicron continues to weigh on overall activity… As an increasing number of central banks watch with alarm, ever higher levels of inflation and rush to tighten monetary policy across advanced and emerging market economies, the pace of global recovery is at risk.” The report also concludes on a sombre note:

“Inflation has become entrenched across economies owing to a spike in commodity prices and persistence of supply chain bottlenecks. The global macroeconomic situation remains embroiled in a heightened state of uncertainty, with risks tilted to the downside… Investor sentiment has been dampened by risk aversion, which could unsettle capital flows and impede the embryonic recovery going forward.” Between the opening and the conclusion, the RBI’s report is no different from the government’s report.

The report of the MoF is understandably upbeat and self-laudatory but for a solitary warning: “Recent geopolitical developments have introduced an element of uncertainty into the economic growth and inflation outlooks in the new financial year.”

Flagging the Concerns

While I too wish the best for the Indian economy, it is appropriate to flag the concerns:

1. In respect of every region and every major economy, the IMF has lowered the GDP growth projection by an average of 1.5 per cent. The US’s growth has been lowered by 2 per cent and China’s by 3.2 per cent. It is difficult to believe that India’s growth will be lower by only 0.5 per cent and will remain at a whopping 9 per cent (in 2022-23).

2. Inflation has soared in most advanced economies and many emerging market economies. Gold, food and commodity prices are rising. India’s WPI inflation in February stood at 13.1 per cent and CPI inflation at 6.1 per cent. Food inflation has risen to 5.9 per cent, manufacturing inflation to 9.8 per cent and fuel & light inflation is still high at 8.7 per cent.

3. Investor sentiments have been shaken. Stock markets are down, bond prices have hardened and central banks have hiked or warned of hiking interest rates.

4. On the employment front, the labour participation rate in India has declined and the number of workers employed has also declined.

5. On the expenditure front, the government is banking on government capital expenditure (that will, government argued, ‘crowd in’ private investment, which is debatable). The estimate of government capital expenditure is suspect and there may be double-counting. The financing of capital expenditure is largely through market borrowing.

Is Welfarism Development?

The situation calls for deft management. The High Frequency Indicators reflect, largely, the economic situation of the middle class and the rich. The poor are more concerned with, and are hurt by, inflation and unemployment. The questionable jobs data that the government is trumpeting are jobs that the very poor, uneducated and unskilled cannot aspire for. They need jobs on farms, in low-end services and in micro & small enterprises, that are hard to come by. For the present, they seem satisfied with welfarism that will mitigate their hardships but bring little or no ‘development’.

Survey after survey shows that, in the just-concluded five state elections, the vast majority of voters desired ‘development’ but voted for the status quo. Welfarism is useful, but is no substitute for real and durable development.

Real and durable development will come only through disruption, radical reforms, less government control, increased competition, freedom, an atmosphere free from intimidation or fear, tolerance of differences and true federalism. In at least four of the five states, people seem to have voted for the status quo than change. In the bargain, whether they have voted against real and durable development, only time will tell.



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Jagmohan was a trusted hatchet man who had proved his loyalty to the Gandhi family during the Emergency by obeying Sanjay Gandhi’s orders to bulldoze slums in Delhi in the name of ‘beautification’.

There has been only one instance of ethnic cleansing in India. It was of the Pandits from the Kashmir Valley. It shames India that this happened. It should shame our political leaders that two decades on they have been unable to reverse this heartbreaking exodus. I was in Srinagar when the exodus took place and have never forgotten the mobs of menacing jihadists who roamed the streets shouting slogans against India.

Jagmohan had just been made Governor of the state so they also believed the rumours about how Hindus were being evacuated en masse so that the Indian Air Force could be used to silence the Kashmir Valley.

The Valley’s Muslim population hated Jagmohan because, in an earlier tenure that he served at Indira Gandhi’s behest, he had proved that he was her hatchet man. He replaced her cousin, B K Nehru, who refused to topple the government of Farooq Abdullah on the grounds that this would cause dangerous disaffection and make the Kashmiris lose faith once more in democracy. It is important at this point to remember that elections were always rigged in the Valley after Sheikh Abdullah was jailed. In 1983, when Farooq Abdullah won, it was essentially the first free election. He won easily because it was just months after the old Sheikh died and the Kashmiri people felt that they owed him this victory. But Mrs Gandhi was misled into believing that she should have won, so she appointed a Governor who she knew would collude with her to bring down Farooq’s government.

Jagmohan was a trusted hatchet man who had proved his loyalty to the Gandhi family during the Emergency by obeying Sanjay Gandhi’s orders to bulldoze slums in Delhi in the name of ‘beautification’. So, in that cold January of 1990 when he returned and the Valley was boiling over, rumours of his perfidious ways were credible. The fact that more than 300,000 Kashmiri Pandits left within days of his appointment served to intensify these fears. Perhaps it was impossible for Jagmohan to prevent the exodus. Perhaps he tried and failed.

On my next visit to the state, I made it a point to go to Jammu. To this day images of the refugee camps remain vivid. Kashmiri Hindus who abandoned fine homes in the Valley were forced to live in flimsy shacks in filthy conditions for months and years because the political leaders in Delhi and Srinagar did no more than make bleating sympathetic noises. Shame on them because it was their weakness that resulted in the Kashmir Valley being taken over by violent Islamists.

The questions I have asked myself ever since is why our political leaders did so little? Why were Kashmiri Pandits not given the full protection of the Indian State to return to their homes, their orchards, and their businesses? Are these questions that are answered in The Kashmir Files? I happen to be abroad and so have not yet been able to see the film, but if these questions are answered, it would indeed become a valuable historical record of a terrible crime.

If all that this film has achieved is to incite Hindu-Muslim hatred by blaming the exodus on all Kashmiri Muslims, then in my view it has failed to achieve a higher purpose. Kashmiri Muslims may not have been forced to flee the Valley, but they have also suffered decades of violence, death and deprivation. According to conservative estimates, more than 40,000 have been killed in what is called crossfire.

Not everyone supported the insurgency but those who opposed it ended up dead. This must be remembered in any truthful telling of the Kashmir story, or The Kashmir Files risks being no more than a BJP propaganda film that will have a few moments in the sun before fading into the shadows. Far too many BJP leaders and spokesmen have taken to social media to endorse the film, and this is an indication that it will manage to create more divisions among Hindus and Muslims at a time when divisions are dangerously deep.

The ethnic cleansing of the Pandits from the Kashmir Valley was an atrocity that should have been rectified much, much earlier. In those camps in Jammu this is what everyone said and believed would happen, so they waited and they waited. It was only when no Indian Prime Minister, not even Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was able to give them the security they needed to be able to go home, that they began to build new lives elsewhere. In my opinion this is almost as much of a crime as the ethnic cleansing.

Whenever I have asked political leaders in Srinagar and Delhi about why they were so reluctant to make it their mission to bring the Pandits back to the Valley, they have always blamed Pakistan and the spread of Islamism. It is true that these are factors, but was it not possible for the mighty Indian Army to take on the insurgent groups? Surely, they were not more powerful than our soldiers. Anyone who knows why our Kashmir problem has been allowed to fester for so many decades knows that it is because corrupt political leaders and corrupt jihadist groups profited hugely from the violence.

This story is so murky that it is too dangerous to make films about. Meanwhile, I end with the hope that The Kashmir Files brings healing with it and not hatred.



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After Warne’s untimely death, his manager revealed he had been on a 14-day liquid diet. While it’s impossible to know if it contributed to his heart attack, there is enough evidence linking crash dieting with cardiovascular disease and strokes.

‘Operation Shred’, announced Shane Warne determinedly in his last post on Instagram alongside a shirtless image where he is looking slim and muscular. The rest of the caption read, “The goal by July is to go back to this shape”. After Warne’s untimely death, his manager revealed he had been on a 14-day liquid diet. While it’s impossible to know if it contributed to his heart attack, there is enough evidence linking crash dieting with cardiovascular disease and strokes. An elite athlete like Warne really should have known better, but as anyone who has struggled with their weight knows, it’s easy to shrug off health consequences when the prize is immediate svelteness.

In the widely popular juice cleanse Warne was on — it has been endorsed by celebrities, who want to look lissome before red carpet events — there are no solid foods, only vegetable smoothies, teas and soups, usually for not more than three days at a time. According to movie folklore, Katrina Kaif drank just buttermilk for a week before shooting for the song Kala Chashma, to create the illusion of washboard abs. Naturally, a person’s weight reduces, in the short term. Invariably, when you restart normal food, the body makes up for the calorie deprivation and the weight comes right back. Nevertheless, the juicing diet will always have takers because the results are instantaneous. Human beings are drawn to guarantees. Since weight is an overriding preoccupation in people’s heads, it blinds them to established data, that diets like these are utterly futile.

Despite everything Warne achieved in his illustrious career, he continued to believe in the binary, thin is good and fat is bad. Like millions of others, he underwent desperate measures to fix a size perceived as not “ideal”. There is an unacknowledged moral construct to weight that quietly pressures all of us; in popular imagination, the fat body represents dissipation and a weakness of will, while those existing in a state of focused deprivation are revered and envied. That is why every single dietician worth her salt proudly displays ‘before’ and ‘after’ shots of her clients — when it comes to weight, the proof of the pudding is in the not eating. Note, the phenomenal rise in wellness tourism (‘wellness’ being the socially prudent code word for weight loss). Customers pay upwards of Rs 30,000 a night at resorts that have bridged health and leisure with programmes for gut resets, sleep recovery and weight busting meal plans.

The Body Positivity influencers flooding Instagram and TikTok can scream themselves hoarse, that you can be healthy and beautiful at any size; secretly, no one believes them. They will get the clap emojis and likes on their posts because people, for good reason, are inclined to keep their prejudices to themselves. On social media, everyone is saying what they think should be said. The fact remains, few care to lose weight for fear of contracting Type 2 diabetes but plenty are motivated by the thought of looking good. But in this era of politically correct messaging, owning up to vanity is no longer legitimate. It should strike everyone as absurd that admitting, publicly, a desire to shed flab may constitute fat shaming. But shutting down the allegedly vain doesn’t change the truth, that excess weight makes people wretchedly unhappy. To improve lives, reconciling all these confusing extremes requires honesty, not lies and posturing.

What the Body Positivity Movement gets right is the claim that there is more to life than agonising about a size. This message gets lost in between nonsensical hashtags like #healthyatanysize and #fatandproud. It’s true, it’s a colossal waste of mind space to spend this one precious life obsessing over what not to eat. People dreamily believe if only they had shed some kilos, their lives would transform and their problems would vanish. They might, temporarily, till the restless mind finds something else to stress over. Nothing is ever perfect for long. It might be wise to remember, the fit and the unfit meet the same end.

(The writer is director, Hutkay Films)



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It is in this world that Gangubai Kathiawadi belonged, and beat it enough times to earn a bust with a plaque in her room in Kamathipura, a chapter in a book on the Mafia Queens of Mumbai, and a film on her.

You don’t forget the grime, lining the walls, covering the steps. You don’t forget the patches in between, rubbed shiny clean from the hands and feet of the many, many who have passed over these stairs. You don’t forget the faces of those who never left, who have surrounded themselves with portraits of gods and posters of film stars — sharing an equal pedestal in warren-like rooms, in this final defiance by the women whom the world forgot. And you don’t forget, what they can’t forget: all the little things about that world.

These are the women of Delhi’s G B Road, from an afternoon decades ago. Even to the naive eyes of a group of us college students, they were women who made us uncomfortable, for not falling easily into any neat, familiar brackets.

They were lonely but remarkably close knit; they were sad but not as unhappy as we wanted them to be; they were as uncertain of the law as sure of the ways around it; they lived in conflict with society but had society already figured out; and they wore their sexuality on their sleeve, not behind some wardrobe malfunction.

It is in this world that Gangubai Kathiawadi belonged, and beat it enough times to earn a bust with a plaque in her room in Kamathipura, a chapter in a book on the Mafia Queens of Mumbai, and a film on her.

But who is this person clad in virginal muslin and linen whites, uncreased by the passing years and a halted life, in shiny hair, glowing skin, un-widening waist and un-sagging body, tinkling tunefully along at all times in her ample bangles and anklets?

This is Gangubai sanitised and whitewashed for our viewing pleasure, forever young, forever pretty, forever shorn of not just the greys but the audacious hues of the rainbow that must have seen her past many a cloud, forever seeking approval, forever the girl one could bring home — but for the fact that one, of course, wouldn’t.

She may have made deals with the underworld, sold liquor during prohibition, overthrown her brothel madam, duped policemen, overturned local politics and survived assaults, but in this woman-as-goddess or woman-as-witch worldview, all that logically follows from power play such as this must happen off-camera.

On Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s camera, Gangubai must fit uncomplicated conventions — the heroine who is not just better dressed, combed and read than the rest, but is also, most strikingly, the fairest of them all.

And if the unsmirched Gangubai is not enough convention for this fairytale, there are the “evil” others — far removed from the pristine perfection of Gangubai. Seema Pahwa’s every ounce of weight, bead of sweat, strand of unkempt hair, sequin on sari is an exaggeration; Vijay Raaz as the transgender who also takes Gangubai on, as much of a caricature. Another brothel resident who confronts Gangubai, leaning on the wrong side of the weighing scale, is already getting there. The men are generally heartless louts who, by Gangubai’s logic, would go around on a raping rampage but for brothels like hers providing them a sexual outlet.

Gangubai is allowed love, but no desire. She has a touching romance with a boy on the streets, and the back of a car, but no quickie on the bed. She kisses another, who is clearly besotted with her, but on the forehead. There is a suggestion that mixing love and work is difficult for her — but the boy doesn’t protest, and who are we?

So what are we to take away from this supposedly feminist take, apart from the fact that Gangubai had an astonishingly good taste, good tailor, and good foresight to see exactly what would work well as muted, urbane 21st century fashion? That women be girls, listen to daddy or, alternatively, find a sugar daddy, think twice before you elope, love children or better still get them to love you, and never, ever grow old or fat.

The choice of Alia Bhatt, good as she is, particularly in conveying the dilemmas that she is not allowed to play out, is not incidental. In her, Bhansali has an ideal child-woman, the vulnerable damsel whom everyone wants to protect, the fair maiden ready to be moulded into whatever shape the world has for her.

There is just one disturbing scene where Bhansali turns the mirror around, at us. When a row of girls are getting ready to turn into women of the night, hiding their scars and shadows behind powder, rouge and lipstick, before lining at the brothel door to beckon customers. A girl shows Gangubai just how to stand there — an arm resting above, breasts thrust out, skirt hitched up, a leg bent at the knee, her hand beckoning, her lips moving.

There stands a girl calling out men going about their business, with fingers that twitch and a sound seeking attention that one won’t forget in a hurry. It’s easy to love Gangubai, the saviour in a sari. Can we hold this girl’s gaze?



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To understand the changes in Indian electoral politics, many have turned to exit poll and post poll data. But uncritical or biased analysis of survey data can do more harm than good, by producing purported “facts” about caste and communities.

To understand the changes in Indian electoral politics, many have turned to exit poll and post poll data. But uncritical or biased analysis of survey data can do more harm than good, by producing purported “facts” about caste and communities.

The science of deducing vote by caste

In a randomly sampled survey, women and lower castes may refuse to respond more often than men and upper castes. And those who choose to answer may display biases (e.g., more likely to report voting for the BJP, than the general population). We also know from research that the identity of the surveyor matters — women may answer differently to male surveyors, lower castes may answer differently to upper caste surveyors and so on. Pollsters have a number of techniques to address these biases, but importantly, most of these methods are applied to the entire sample and cannot be used to correct data from individual caste groups.

In addition to hard-to-correct biases, data on caste groups are necessarily a fraction of the entire sample. The post polls conducted by Axis and Lokniti are among the highest quality surveys, and both nearly predicted the true vote shares of the main parties in UP. Yet, at the level of caste, Lokniti reported that 33% of Jats voted for the SP (54% for the BJP), while Axis reported that 44% of Jats voted for the SP (47% for the BJP).

Some math will help adjudicate here. Lokniti had a sample of approximately 7,000 observations and a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Jats make up approximately 2% of the sample. There simply isn’t enough data to draw clear claims about the Jat community in any survey.

Attribution of intention to outcomes

Across surveys one finds that approximately 80% of Muslims supported the SP. But is this evidence of a community-wide decision? Not necessarily.

Political scientists distinguish between two types of voters, sincere and strategic. A sincere voter will always support her most preferred political party, irrespective of its chances of winning. A strategic voter does not “waste a vote” on an uncompetitive party.

The BSP was perceived to be less competitive, even at the constituency level. Indeed, the BSP’s average constituency-wise vote share dropped to less than 13% — its worst performance since 1991. In our travels, Mayawati’s government was viewed as the most well-functioning across caste and party lines, but votes are not always about governance.

The principle of strategic voting suggests that many Muslims (and those from other communities) may have voted for the SP, even if they preferred the BSP, due to individual strategic incentives and not a community-wide decision. Indeed, as Gilles Verniers has shown, the vast majority of Muslims voted for the SP despite the BSP nominating a higher percentage (16%) of Muslim candidates than the SP (13%).

Did the BSP’s SC vote help the BJP win? Survey data is murky, but election results provide some clues. In 2017, the BSP won 11 of its 19 seats in phases 6 and 7. In 2022, the BSP won its sole seat in phase 6, and the SP alliance improved its strike rate from 13% to 39% over these two phases. Statistical analyses confirm that previous BSP vote share is associated with better SP performance in 2022 — if anything votes transferred from the BSP to the SP.

Consider, for instance, Katehari constituency which the BSP carried with 36% vote share in 2017, besting the BJP (33%) and SP (19%) alliances. This time, the BSP’s vote share was 24% and the SP’s 38% — higher than the BJP alliance which stayed nearly the same (34%). In fact, the SP won all five constituencies in Katehari’s Ambedkar Nagar district (in 2017, the BSP had won two and BJP had won three). Like much of the final 2 phases, the district has a higher than average SC population (25%) and lower than average Muslim population (17%). So the larger SC population does not seem to have helped the BJP.

An uncritical view of quantitative data can lead to specious claims about caste and religious communities. It is incumbent upon us to use it responsibly.

(Neelanjan Sircar is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research. Suraj Yengde, the author of Caste Matters, curates the fortnightly ‘Dalitality’ column)



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India-Japan ties are historical, going beyond economy to include intangible bonds. Yet, the high gear partnership is relatively new.

India continues its balancing act on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Discussions between visiting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Narendra Modi addressed the situation in Ukraine. The joint statement does not call out Russia for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine or the unfolding humanitarian crisis. The agreements between India and Japan, including investments worth $42 billion over five years, and the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific are factors New Delhi must consider as it fashions its global engagement.

India-Japan ties are historical, going beyond economy to include intangible bonds. Yet, the high gear partnership is relatively new. Kishida's India visit, his first foreign visit as prime minister, has deepened these ties with clean energy partnerships and investments, agreements ranging across sectors - wastewater management, electric vehicle development, horticulture, etc. These partnerships are critical to India's ambitions of growing its economy and creating jobs. As is India's critical role in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. As a major developing country economy, India must recognise that it cannot do it alone. It will require engaging with the world - which means taking positions and considering trade-offs.

Kishida is spot on - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed international relations. Historically, India's approach has been part reactive and part avoidance. It worked for a long time, even after the Cold War. The war in Ukraine has changed that. India's engagement with the world must be more strategic, recognising trade-offs, and long-term interests. As a developing country with a global presence, India must become the voice of those who are not at the table, including the left behind.
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For a country that attained its freedom through, among other things, a vigorous swadeshi movement, the idea of nationalism in savings choices should not be alien. Most household financial savings help in nation-building through the government's borrowing programme.

Indian companies have been the country's biggest wealth creators over the last 40 years, handsomely protecting shareholders' standard of living. Yet, this wealth is distributed among just about 5% of the country's population that pays income-tax, buys life insurance, has pensionary benefits, or is exposed to, directly or through intermediaries, to the stock market. Less than a third of Indian households benefit from shareholder capitalism. The rest are consigned to the periphery of the wealth creation process by saving in relatively unproductive assets like gold and houses. Part of the reason is a cultural aversion to risk. But financial access is also denied to those operating in the country's sizeable informal economy.

Why do so many Indians end up exporting their savings through gold when there is a far better swadeshi alternative available? Indian savers have anyway lent western borrowers a chunk of the wealth created at home and abroad. The country's market capitalisation is five times the size of its foreign exchange reserves. In return, foreigners own a fifth of India's most productive national assets. Warren Buffett made fortunes for his followers by asking them to bet on American enterprise. Surely, that can be replicated here as well.

For a country that attained its freedom through, among other things, a vigorous swadeshi movement, the idea of nationalism in savings choices should not be alien. Most household financial savings help in nation-building through the government's borrowing programme. If Indians can be weaned off their affinity for physical savings, and channels to the stock market are widened, more of them would be aiding the national effort and would, in the bargain, become wealthier sooner. Headline stock market indices serve as markers for the health of emerging economies, and broader local participation dampens volatility caused by international capital flows. The government should encourage the markets to play Robin Hood in redistributing wealth. It is time for a swadeshi investment movement.
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The Ukraine crisis figured prominently at the annual India-Japan Summit, as was widely expected, though Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida sent out clear signals that the two key players of the Indo-Pacific region will continue to focus on challenges closer home. The summit, held after a hiatus of three years, was underpinned by several measures aimed at deepening bilateral economic cooperation, including Japan’s announcement on investing five trillion yen or $42 billion in India over five years and the unveiling of a new clean energy partnership to focus on electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in India. There were seven loans worth about 320 billion yen for connectivity, water, health care and biodiversity projects in several Indian states and an industrial partnership roadmap meant to encourage Japanese firms to invest in India by resolving the problems that they currently face. It is significant that there was also a sustainable development initiative specifically for India’s northeastern states – Japan is the only country that has focused on progress in this strategic region, pumping in millions of dollars in aid in recent years.

The two countries addressed each other’s strategic concerns in the joint statement issued after the summit. There was a strong call for irreversible action by Pakistan against terror networks operating from its soil and a demand to root out terrorist safe havens and disrupt terror financing channels. In a nod to Japan’s concerns, the joint statement sought the early conclusion of a code of conduct in South China Sea in line with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and referred to collaboration in maritime security to meet challenges against the rules-based maritime order in the East and South China Seas. The two sides further signalled their intent to cooperate on regional issues such as Myanmar and Afghanistan while condemning North Korea’s “destabilising” missile launches.

While Mr Modi refrained from directly mentioning the Ukraine conflict, Mr Kishida bluntly said Russia’s aggression had shaken the roots of the international order, and that unilateral attempts to alter the status quo were unacceptable in any part of the world. Mr Kishida reportedly pushed the Indian side to do more to convince the Russian side to end the aggression, which is one of the few issues on which the members of Quad have not been able to present a united front. While the immediate focus will remain on the Ukraine crisis, the India-Japan Summit has set the stage for finding solutions to more pressing challenges in the region.



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Nagaland appears set for a date with history on March 31, when the victor of its lone Rajya Sabha seat will be announced. S Phangnon Konyak, a leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is the frontrunner after the state’s ruling coalition named her as its nominee. If elected, she will become the first woman from the state to walk into the Upper House, and the first Naga woman to step inside Parliament since 1977.

The northeastern state has never elected a woman to the state assembly, a curious phenomenon given women’s ubiquitous role in the state’s economy and social life – they run restaurants and markets, form the bulk of the agricultural labour and a significant chunk of the urban economy. Yet, their role in decision making remains stymied by customary laws that hinder their land, inheritance and political rights.

The negligible share of women in positions of power is a pan-India problem, and one that affects women from marginalised communities and castes the most. More women in political positions is not only good for the health and longevity of India’s democracy, research suggests it can lead to improved policy outcomes and boost the participation of women in grassroots processes. Already, change is visible in panchayati raj institutions, where a law now mandates a third of seats in local bodies be set aside for women.

Yet, hurdles remain. Political parties, with some exceptions, are largely male run, don’t see the average woman candidate as “winnable” and neglect to nominate women from marginalised groups. Customary and traditional laws hold them back, as do patriarchal attitudes that see power as a male preserve. But if elected, Konyak’s victory can be a start. After all, how many women does it take to shatter a glass ceiling?



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The crisis in Ukraine has undermined the credibility of the United Nations (UN) Security Council. Geopolitical realities have, demonstrably, exposed the Council as not being “fit for purpose” to address the security challenges of the 21st century. The collateral damage suffered by the office of the UN secretary-general is another unintended consequence. Antonio Guterres, an otherwise sophisticated diplomat, finds himself in the crosshairs of a permanent member. History shows that such situations don’t always end well.

The UN’s role in peace and security has, perhaps, never been as weak as it now is. The fallout of the wounds inflicted on the Council means its role will diminish further. The quest to find diplomatic solutions outside the UN framework on crucial matters will accelerate. If the past is prologue, the Council’s fate may increasingly resemble that of such bodies in previous situations of great power rivalry.

However, trust the venerable 75-year-old organisation to be resilient. The Council will, when called upon, continue ratifying solutions worked out elsewhere. It is not in the interest of the five permanent members to neuter the Council completely. They can work out other uses for it. They could prefer it to be an option to address issues where their primary interests are not at stake. This will extend their entrenched legal hegemony. In matters of international peace and security, it will not be a high court, but a petty crimes tribunal. And yes, it shall remain a platform for public diplomacy, to be used by its members, as and when needed.

Changes in roles are not easily discernible. The objective of the Council was to stop a conflict by addressing its cause. Hence, the Council was required to focus on rooting out the cause rather than primarily attend to problems which arose as a result of the conflict. However, for years now, a trend has been noticeable. Where the Council was not able to fulfil its primary mandate and do away with the causes of conflicts, it turned to ameliorating the consequences of conflicts. From the 1990s onwards, the Council expanded its focus on facilitating humanitarian assistance in situations of armed conflict.

Conceptually, such efforts are a “band-aid”. They stem the overflow while the injury is addressed. In real terms, all the Council has done for years in major crises is to stick a band-aid and do nothing more. The situation in Syria is the most recent example. There is little to show in terms of a diplomatic solution, but much to highlight in terms of humanitarian efforts.

This approach, though limited, suits the UN Secretariat too. It provides greater space for international civil servants to play active roles. Once frameworks are established, they can work with non-governmental actors in the humanitarian space. They can be “truth tellers” and “conscience keepers”. Also, it provides them an opportunity to distance themselves from the failures of the Council — a member state body — distinct from a global meritocracy of talent.

Looking ahead, in all probability, the failed Council will try out the avatar of a humanitarian council. It will seek to facilitate humanitarian assistance — in Ukraine and elsewhere. Those who support this stance argue that the competence of the Council’s humanitarian incarnation is intrinsic to the role provided in Article 39 of the UN charter relating to addressing “threat to the peace”. Such a role takes into account judgments of the International Court of Justice and ensures the customary duty to respect international humanitarian law.

This expansionary role was not what the Council was designed for. Addressing a subsidiary pursuit is different from taking over the mantle of a humanitarian council, especially after failing to meet the principal goal of maintaining international peace and security. With the main purpose not being satisfactorily fulfilled, can the pursuit of subsidiary objectives be an adequate substitute for the Council’s importance? Is such a metamorphosis into a new role a form of reform or an effort to evade change?

The Council’s DNA is that of a political body. Humanitarian concerns are never the sole factor for decision-making. Geopolitical and economic interests are always in the mix. Experience indicates that whatever issues the Council members address are through their national prisms. Opting for the Council’s oversight as a norm rather than an exception will further subject the principles of humanitarian assistance — humanity, impartiality, neutrality, and independence — to political choices, rendering them meaningless.

Russia, jostling with France and Mexico over their respective draft resolutions of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, during the last few days, is testimony to the politicisation of humanitarian relief. That neither effort has the requisite support to be passed by the Council is a blessing in disguise. Humanitarian support provided through diktats backed by punitive threats can complicate a complex situation.

India is on the Council for the next nine months. This should not cloud our understanding of the implications for the longer-term. It is not as if humanitarian assistance has not been provided previously through the UN without the Council’s oversight. India needs to consider if yesterday’s failed Security Council transforming into tomorrow’s humanitarian council is the change we want.

Syed Akbaruddin served as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, and is currently dean, Kautilya School of Public Policy

The views expressed are personal



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India recently unveiled its Arctic policy. The document lays down six pillars of engagement: Science and research; climate and environmental protection; economic and human development; transportation and connectivity; governance and international cooperation; and national capacity building. In sum, it expresses India’s intent and readiness to “play its part and contribute to the global good” by involving “all stakeholders including academia; the research community; and business and industry.”

The 27-page policy, a product of inter-ministerial and inter-disciplinary thinking, reflects, at one level, that developments in the Arctic need to be seen through diverse perspectives. At another, it marks a culmination of India’s polar legacy — the long years of participation and expertise in the Antarctic Treaty System, to which India acceded in 1983; the first scientific expedition to the Arctic Ocean in 2007, followed a year later by the setting up of the Arctic research station (Himadri) in the Svalbard archipelago; and subsequently its election to the Council of the International Arctic Science Committee in 2012 before being granted Permanent Observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013 along with other Asian states, China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

Without de-emphasising the exceptionalism of polar research, the document factors the reality of economic and strategic issues. The Arctic is a region of high-risk climate vulnerability and high-reward economic development. The Arctic sea-ice has thinned 1.5 metres between 2018 and 2021, opening potential commercial ventures, from harnessing onshore and offshore oil and gas finds to the opening of the northern sea route for shipping and trade.

The document comes at a time when seven of the eight permanent members of the Arctic Council (Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, the United States, Canada and Denmark) have boycotted future talks with Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Russia holds the rotating chairmanship of the Council until 2023. The fragmenting world order raises uncertainty about development plans, and can push back India’s efforts to scale up its engagement.

As a product of post-Cold War institution building and peace dividend, the Arctic Council, since its inception in 1996, has maintained relative peace and order in the region. Even at the height of the Cold War, calm prevailed on the border between Norway and the former Soviet Union. The spirit of circumpolar cooperation continued to prevail despite Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. But with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine, the Arctic has come under jeopardy of becoming a zone of great power rivalry.

How, then, should India navigate its Arctic policy? A principal objective outlined in the document is “pursuing cooperation and partnership.” First, India needs to advocate for sustainable resource development and management. Collaboration in terms of capacity, technology, monetary contribution and incentive-based management to protect the ecosystem in the region should hereon be structured. The outcomes of these engagements can also enhance India’s role in the Hindu Kush and Himalayas, which are undergoing warming.

Second, both in the foreseeable and unforeseeable future, Russia will remain India’s strongest partner in the Arctic. Russia accounts for almost half of the Arctic in terms of area, coastline and hydrocarbons, with the region contributing 12-15% to Russia’s Gross Domestic Product and almost 20% of its exports. Russia has been explicit about its intention in the Arctic, strongly considering it as a sphere of influence with economic, defensive and transport advantages. For example, the vast eastern Arctic area, as it thaws owing to global warming, is giving Russia access to tens of millions of acres of agricultural land.

It is to India’s advantage that it has, over the years, built its strategic partnership with Russia. Resultantly, a strong thrust on the Arctic has emerged with India increasing its investments in promising projects. For Russia, India’s participation in the development of natural resources of the Russian Arctic would be beneficial amid increasing western sanctions. As Russia gains in terms of resource development in the Arctic, so will India. The complex science and the unfolding politico-strategic-economic dynamics make the Arctic not far and away. The document comprehensively expresses it.

Uttam Kumar Sinha works at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses The views expressed are personal



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Had you ever heard the name Labh Singh until last week? He hit the headlines after defeating former Punjab chief minister (CM) Charanjit Singh Channi in the assembly elections. Similarly, another relatively unknown person, Bhuvan Chandra Kapri, defeated former Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami in the polls. What do these victories signify?

Many unknown people blaze a trail and then vanish without a trace in politics. Tribhuvan Narayan Singh, a former CM of Uttar Pradesh (UP), was defeated by Ramkrishna Dwivedi in the 1970s. This is one of several examples in which the victor faded into obscurity after a spectacular feat. Labh Singh and Bhuvan Chandra Kapri now have to make sure they stay relevant going forward.

The good news is that several people of humble origins have proved successful in recent times through sheer dint of hard work and perseverance. UP CM Yogi Adityanath is an example. He was elected to Parliament from Gorakhpur five times. But when Yogi Adityanath was chosen CM of UP in 2017, numerous issues were raised. One was that he lacked administrative experience, another was that his attire was inappropriate. The first thing he did after he took office was to restore law and order. The police cracked down ruthlessly on criminals. Human rights activists may disapprove of this, but the people of UP have welcomed this approach. The CM made effective policing his poll plank and it paid off handsomely.

Unlawful structures protected or owned by criminals since the 1970s were taken down. I noticed that a well-known shop near Johnson Ganj crossroads in Allahabad, which had allegedly been taken over by a jailed gangster, had disappeared. When I asked what had happened, I was informed that “Yogi Baba” had it taken down. While driving to the airport, it was clear that the crackdown on the mafia has improved access to and navigability on the roads as well. One major impediment to ease of doing business in UP was crime syndicates. Yogi has destroyed this in one fell swoop.

When the pandemic began, there were no laboratories in UP to test for the coronavirus. Now, BSL-2 laboratories with a daily testing capacity of 400,000 are available in the state’s divisional and district hospitals. Yogi Adityanath himself contracted Covid-19, but as soon as he recovered, he began visiting hospitals at different times in the day and night to check on conditions in them.

During the election, it was clear that the majority of people felt the pandemic’s potential harm was far greater than what had already transpired. In order to reduce further suffering, Yogi implemented the Narendra Modi government’s food distribution and other welfare schemes in order to allay fears of widespread hunger. Yogi is known to make swift decisions. When a rape was reported from a protection home, he acted quickly and also developed programmes such as Mission Shakti to raise women’s awareness and ensure their safety. Research conducted after the polls revealed that this time, even rural women voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) without any consideration for caste or religion.

As he begins his new innings, Yogi will be up against a formidable opponent in the Samajwadi Party leader, Akhilesh Yadav. The people have high expectations of Yogi’s government. Living up to these will pose a significant challenge. His party is riven by few dissensions. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles all this.

If the BJP has Yogi Adityanath in UP, Delhi has a very different personality in Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and CM Arvind Kejriwal. As soon as he took over in Delhi, he focused on improving schools and hospitals. He brought exorbitant electricity and water prices under control. Unfinished projects were completed ahead of schedule, resulting in significant cost reductions. He has been running Delhi using the slogan “Janata ka paisa, janata ke liye (the people’s money is for the people)” for the past eight years. Despite losing the previous election in Punjab, he persevered and went on to notch up a historic triumph this time. He is now looking at Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. If he wins a sizable number of seats in these states, his national position will be strengthened considerably.

Politicians such as the Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik, Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s MK Stalin, YSR Congress’s Jagan Mohan Reddy, Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s K Chandrashekhar Rao, Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, and Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray, have significant influence in their states. All eyes are now on Kejriwal and how he handles a tough state like Punjab. Sixty-three of the AAP’s 92 new members in the assembly are crorepatis, and 52 have criminal cases pending against them.

Yogi and Kejriwal have forged their political careers in the crucible of adversity. If they can stay the course, bigger political roles await them.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan

The views expressed are personal



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The five Assembly elections concluded recently have two clear-cut lessons. The first is that the BJP has emerged as the clear winner. Its victories in UP and in Uttarakhand are particularly noteworthy.

However, a win in UP should not be seen as a semi-final before the parliamentary elections of 2024; nor should one assume that 2024 is a done deal. In 2012, Mulayam Singh Yadav swept UP, with the BJP getting only some ten per cent of the votes; in 2014, the BJP swept UP, trouncing the SP. Politics is a dynamic process. Nothing can be assumed until the fact. In 1971, just after the defeat of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh, Indira Gandhi appeared invincible. By 1974 she was in serious trouble, and in 1975 she had to declare the Emergency. Similarly, Rajiv Gandhi with over 400 MPs in 1984 seemed undefeatable. Yet, by 1987, in just three years, his government was in trouble, and he lost the next parliamentary elections in 1989.

The second lesson is that the Congress, as currently constituted, is in deep trouble, if not beyond redemption. It lost badly in every election it fought, reinforcing a verifiable trend since 2014 of a near irreversible decline. For it to get only around two per cent of the vote in UP and only two seats, is an unmitigated disaster. What is worse is that it appears to be adamant not to change. Its custodians seem to believe that a couple of band-aids will do, when the party needs major transformative surgery.

The BJP’s victory run needs analysis. To my mind, it has three strong elements in its narrative which it uses to the full. The first is political Hindutva, which is, simply put, the use of religion to divide votes for political gain. The second is hyper-nationalism, whereby it claims a monopoly on matters of national security, and berates anyone who questions it as anti-national. The third is welfarism, whereby it has achieved success in partially assisting the poor, through direct benefit transfers, the distribution of free rations, and through the use of other schemes such as the PM Awas Yojana and Ujjwala. A fourth element, especially in UP, was the projection that Yogi Adityanath was the guarantor of better law and order. Finally, the party must be credited with efficient social engineering. It successfully co-opted the upper castes, and it mustered the support of the non-Yadav OBCs, which account for some 32 per cent of UP’s population. To all of this, it had an effective organisation, with the RSS cadres on the ground.

Akhilesh Yadav put up a spirited fight, but the chinks in his armour were obvious. Firstly, he started his journey to power too late. To take on the organisational might of the BJP, he should have started in the very next week after his defeat in the parliamentary elections of 2019. Secondly, his vote base was narrow. Eight per cent Yadavs, and some 16 per cent Muslims, at the core of his effort, do not constitute a large enough social base to win UP. Thirdly, he lacked a convincing counter-narrative. It is not enough to critique the BJP; people also want to know what is it that you are offering. And, finally, his organisational apparatus on the ground was no match to the micro outreach of the BJP.

These facts show not that the BJP — as we have argued earlier — is invincible, but that the Opposition has to be far better prepared to take it on.

The BJP has been defeated innumerable times in state elections. Charismatic state leaders have held on to their bastions in spite of the determined predatoriness of the BJP. But the BJP’s strength lies in the national elections, where an organised, planned, grass-rooted, coordinated and credible challenge, with a face, a narrative, and organizational vigour, does not yet exist to harness the legitimate and widespread discontents of the people. This is the real challenge for 2024, and the gauntlet lies at the threshold of the Opposition.

A very significant part of this challenge is to find a substitute for the Congress. This is not to devalue the importance of the Congress. The idea of the Congress, and its original vision for India are, if anything, even more relevant today. The problem is that the Congress as it exists today is unable to fight to preserve that idea of India, and is unwilling to do anything to change this state of affairs. This has emerged as a very serious weakness in the combined aspirations of the Opposition, since the Congress is the principal opponent to the BJP in some 250 seats. In such direct fights, the BJP’s strike rate against the Congress is around 96 per cent. The Congress’s weakness is thus the strength of the BJP.

What then becomes abundantly clear is that some new entity must emerge, especially in the north and the west including the Hindi heartland, which can more effectively challenge the BJP. This may well happen in the coming days, since politics, like nature, cannot sustain a void. The relentless erosion of the Congress has created precisely such a void. If such an entity, working on its own, or in the right strategic alliances, does emerge, it cannot be seen mechanically as cutting the vote of the Congress, since the Congress has in any case where little left to be cut. The second step in the reinvigoration of the Opposition must be more cohesive national coordination between all parties opposed to the BJP. This cannot be an arithmetical unity, merely a conglomeration of Opposition leaders on a stage, nor can it be held hostage to vanity or one-upmanship. This unity, guided by a pan-India vision, will have to be strategic.

Politics is about the art of the possible. As this column has stated before, a vibrant democracy needs a robust Opposition. To pursue this goal requires perseverance and strategic clarity.



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What do I dream of these days? Cakes, roses, moonlight? I dream of devastating floods and fires, lost children (including my own), wars and death. I dream of loss, defeat, and global catastrophes. They assail me every single night!

Dreams? ‘Nightmares’ I submit!

It must be obvious, even to those who still dream pleasantly, that these night terrors are born of deep anxiety, born of current events.

Anxiety is defined as feelings of unease, like worry or fear, that can become constant and severe, permeating our daily lives with restlessness and worry. By day and by night.

Before the pandemic, and this new Russo-Ukrainian, potentially global, possibly nuclear, conflict, there were already an estimated 275 million people worldwide suffering from anxiety. Recent studies suggest there has been a massive spike in levels of anxiety, and the global numbers reeling from it, in these last two traumatic years.

Nor is it only those who were directly affected by Covid (which most of us were), or found themselves in the path of the murderous Taliban, or Putin’s homicidal aggression, who’ve experienced this overpowering new unease, but anyone registering and responding to the calamitous state of our world. Pandemic Brain and Headline Anxiety are unhappy offshoots of this.

“I think everyone's experiencing some degree of anxiety about what's happening in the world,” Professor of psychiatry Michael Ziffra confirmed my suspicions about my sustained nocturnal unrest, “What we’re experiencing right now is unprecedented — all this happening at once — prolonged pandemic, political turmoil, war, climate change. Long-term exposure to stressors generally worsens anxiety.”

But because there’s far too much bad news on every other front, our worsening mental health doesn’t get discussed by governments, media, or medical and scientific communities. There was an avalanche of social media posts about isolation and depression in lockdown, but they’ve petered out. We’re now all valiantly trying to project normality, good cheer, and optimism. Oh me too, but like many others I know, it’s often a façade, with the bitter truth surfacing in my dreams.

Some of us, you see, have been left with Long Covid, and almost all of us with Long Anxiety, which is not just another fallout of the pandemic, but a pandemic in its own right. With the war in Ukraine, and the threat of nuclear annihilation hanging over us, as if a deadly worldwide virus wasn’t enough, not to forget the catastrophic climate disaster on the horizon, anxiety has reached a new zenith. With so much to be anxious about, yet little outlet for it, how do we cope with life?

I know of folks glued to the screens of their smartphones and TVs, incessantly watching the bad news roll in, hating every minute of it but unable to stop. There’s also panic buying which we saw so much of at the start of the pandemic, when people, especially in the west, stashed more canned food, loo roll, and sanitising gel, than they could possibly need. Now this endemic shopping is a desperate attempt at retail therapy, and the reassurance of being equipped to survive Armageddon. People have also turned to cults, religion, and groups with extreme and narrow beliefs, to help save them from the uncertainty of the wider world. Driving around my city this weekend, I noticed big, new churches promulgating obscure faiths that have sprung up in the past two years.

In me, this anxiety has undoubtedly worked its way into my dreams. And because the future looks bleak, whatever I might tell myself in waking, my nightmares converge on our younger generations. My daughter has a habit of reporting her dreams to me, and I used to tell her mine but can’t anymore. Exactly how many times can I tell my children that I dreamt we were all swept away by a towering tsunami?

In my subconscious, the climate crisis has clearly melded with parental anxiety, though in the day I’m a happy and focused mother. Parental anxieties are as old as time however. Isn’t there a meme on how having children is like letting your heart walk around outside of you, tugging at your heartstrings constantly? Perpetually hearing those emotional alarm bells blaring? Parenthood: Just another name for anxiety!

But in a week it is Mother's Day in Britain, and anxiety must be banished as we ooh over the delicious chocolate cake the children have baked, and aah over the beautiful cards they’ve drawn lovingly, wreathed in smiles these deservedly elicit. Because dreams are dreams, right? Those hoary somnolent chestnuts of failing our exams, losing one’s clothes, arriving too late, or, or being chased by Akshay Kumar (eeeek!); none of them are real, thankfully. The monsters in our nightmares are prompted by nothing more than flatulence and acidity, we’ve been assured repeatedly.

Yet, the climate crisis, the pandemic, this new war, are REAL, and so’s the anxiety! And troubled nights can bleed into our waking lives, draining us of the sense of purpose and energy we need to tackle the triggers of our disquiet; the precarious condition of our planet. Ergo, let’s eat that chocolate cake, dream our nerve-wracking dreams, and then, take them seriously.



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Finding her children — Rahul and Priyanka — in the firing line following the party’s rout in the recent Assembly elections, Congress president Sonia Gandhi promptly came to their rescue by stepping out of her self-imposed isolation and asserting her authority. She lost no time in convening a meeting of the Congress Working Committee for a post-mortem of the party’s poll performance three days after the declaration of the election results. She followed it up by asking the party’s state unit presidents of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur to put in their papers and appointing leaders to look into the reasons for the party’s debacle in the five states. Sonia Gandhi further reached out to the rebel party leaders who have been pressing for internal elections. Having been absent from Parliament for several sessions, Sonia Gandhi also registered her presence in the Lok Sabha last week when she made a special mention during zero hour calling for an end to the “systematic interference of Facebook and other social media giants “ in India’s electoral politics. Though Sonia Gandhi had abdicated all her responsibilities to Rahul and Priyanka, this was her way of insulating her children from further attack and telling her detractors “Main Hoon Na”.  

Haryana’s political circles consistently maintain that former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has an informal understanding with his successor Manohar Lal Khattar. Mr Hooda, it is said, is not serious about discharging his duties as leader of Opposition and generally gives the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government an easy pass. For instance, Mr Hooda was not present when the controversial anti-conversion bill was taken up in the Haryana Assembly earlier this month. He was instead spotted at the Delhi Gymkhana Club where he had come to watch the Davis Cup matches. A few days later, Hooda was seen sharing sweets with Khattar and his colleagues to celebrate the BJP’s victory in the recently-concluded Assembly polls. Mr Hooda’s proximity to Khattar has obviously irked state Congress leaders who lament that it is hampering their efforts to put up a credible fight against the BJP government.

Several important leaders in the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress have reason to worry as there is talk of changes in both the two parties. The BJP leadership is expected to use its enhanced status following its recent electoral victories to crack the whip on a few leaders. Former Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje, not exactly a hot favourite with the Delhi bosses, is expected to be further marginalised while Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan may also be eased out. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, already under pressure from the BJP, can expect to deal with a more belligerent alliance partner in the coming days. On a high after the poll results, saffron-clad BJP legislators in Bihar recently shouted victorious slogans in the assembly while Nitish Kumar looked on helplessly. In the Congress, knives are out for communications department chief Randeep Surjewala, Rohan Gupta (social media head) and general secretary K.C. Venugopal. They may be on their way out as there have been innumerable complaints about the party’s poor communication strategy while Mr Venugopal, too, has been under attack for several months now. He even came in for criticism at the Congress Working Committee meeting.

With the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party set to get five Rajya Sabha seats following its spectacular win in Punjab, the names of probable candidates are already doing the rounds. While former Test cricketer Harbhajan Singh is on the list of those picked for a coveted berth in the Upper House, there is also some discussion about well-known singer Gurdas Mann getting a Rajya Sabha nomination. It appears that Mr Kejriwal may be following the Trinamul Congress model of bringing together persons from diverse backgrounds.

Ashwani Kumar, who left the Congress on election-eve, is also trying for a seat as is former Punjab Congress chief H.S. Hanspal. In addition to these five Rajya Sabha seats, the AAP will get another two in June when the present members from Punjab retire.

While an orchestrated campaign has been launched by Congress loyalists to demand dissident leader Kapil Sibal’s expulsion for publicly suggesting that the Gandhis step down from leadership roles, the party is in a fix about handling Preneet Kaur and Manish Tewari. Mr Tewari is among the 23 Congress leaders who had written to Sonia Gandhi two years ago pressing for organisational elections. Preneet Kaur joined the group when she attended last week’s meeting of “rebel” leaders at Ghulam Nabi Azad’s residence. She defied the party and worked for her husband, former chief minister Amarinder Singh’s campaign, in the recent election despite being issued a disciplinary notice. But the Congress is hamstrung in taking action against the two leaders as Preneet Kaur and Mr Tewari are Lok Sabha MPs. The party can hardly afford to lose two members given its low bench strength in the Lower House.



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“O Bachchoo why is terror so hard to define?
--Behold the mosquito drowning in your wine!
O Bachchoo why does fear stalk the fading twilit sky?
--Hear the screech of flocks of birds circling as they fly
O Bachchoo where does yearning end and fulfilment start

-The poets say the answers are the murmurs of your heart.”

From Kya Bholey -- Bhej Dey Soney Aur Chandi Ke Goley! by Bachchoo

Travel was, perhaps for Marco Polo, Hiuen Tsang and the characters of Around the World in Eighty Days a challenge and a pleasure. Today the challenge remains and one may add other qualities to it, such as nuisance, frustration and annoyance. Getting from London to New Delhi in order to get to Jaipur for a literary festival was precisely all those.

The Government of India requires all entrants to fill in a form which demands copies of passports and vaccination certificates in a particular software format. Apart from those, it requires all manner of, in my humble judgment, irrelevant detail. Some of it may be, in a bureaucrat’s view, necessary to keep India safe from infection by the likes of myself. Once complete, one submits the form and waits for a reply from the Government of India. It instructs you to print this reply and carry it when travelling.

Not being a 12-year-old nerd, I struggled for a few hours with it. Finally, the certificate arrived. I folded it into my passport. I might as well have rolled it into a joint and smoked it, because neither at the departure desks in London or the arrival -- immigration, customs and security checks – in New Delhi, did anyone bother to ask me for it.

Perhaps one of the reasons for subjecting would-be entrants to Bharat Mata to this ordeal is a test of their patience, diligence and tolerance of irrelevant procedure, ensuring that only patient, diligent and bureaucratically-tolerant people gain entry to this clean and peasant land.

I have decided, gentle reader, not to bore you with details of my encounters with the policemen and women at security checks of Indian airports. No opportunity to speak truth to power there. I will say that my experience at these security check stations reinforced my conviction that being an Indian policeperson was a cushy deal - what with free crisp uniforms and idle duties.

All this being the case, I decided not to travel by air from Delhi airport to Jaipur, but to go by hired car instead. A very pleasant and talkative driver drove me through the several traffic jams and road-work hold-ups in six hours to the Pink City. The motorists on this journey are regaled every 10 yards with huge hoardings advertising “hotels” and hospitals and selling consumer goods. Half of these sales hoardings sell jewellery. There are photographs of models wearing rich necklaces and bangles of gold and precious stones and pictures of glittering diamonds on lush, contrasting felt. The vendors of treasure must have buyers for this extravagance. Evidence of prosperity? Not if one keeps one’s eyes open and takes in the ribbon of poverty and scrawny cattle on the journey, mile after mile.

And the other half of these advertising hoardings seemed to be about some sort of condiment or narcotic with pictures of two handsome film stars holding up two fingers to the public in a “V” sign. I am sure these film stars, and the advertising executives who designed the hoardings, are unaware that this particular “V” sign, with the back of one’s hand facing the viewer, is conventionally used to urge people to go some distance and have sex.

(The popular phrase for such an injunction can be represented by the letters F and O.)

The other “V” sign, popularised by Winston Churchill, consists of holding the same fore and middle fingers up, like bunnies’ ears, but with the palm of the hand facing the viewer. That sign means Victory. But perhaps I’m mistaken and the two handsome film stars and the advertisers know precisely what their signage means and feel that the masochists will gratefully see the humorous side of being enjoined to such action and will immediately buy whatever they are selling.

Saying which, leaves me little space to tell you how I prospered at the literary festival. I will say, though, that it was an opportunity to meet and socialise with old friends, among whom were Dolly Thakore, who was there to launch her autobiography, Mahua Moitra, who was her usual firebrand self, Ruth Padel, Ranjit Hoskote, Arundhati Subramaniam and my dear Jeet Thayil, all stimulating poets.

I must admit I did spend a few detours and executed some dodges in the “writer’s pavilion” -- a space with a bar and food and tables on a large enclosed law -- avoiding encounters with a couple of people. Why? Well, the first was a lady writer whose work I had characterised in the media, in ironic revenge for some nastiness she’d published, as socially-conscious prose for the intellectually handicapped and masturbatorilly challenged. The other person I successfully avoided was an ex-editor whose magazine published some nasty lies about me and had to pay out a handsome sum when threatened by Channel 4, for whom I then worked, with a libel suit. From which time I’ve been convinced that being libelled is not a liability. Bring it on!



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India’s prime ministership has now become a proprietorship, wrote Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao in his fictionalised autobiography, The Insider. The observation in the book is dated circa mid-1970s. That was when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi inducted her son Sanjay into the ruling party and allowed him unchecked authority within the government. The idea of dynastic succession within the Nehru family, however, goes far back and all the way to 1928. When Mahatma Gandhi selected Jawaharlal Nehru as the person who would succeed Motilal Nehru as president of the Indian National Congress, Jawaharlal’s mother Swarup Rani was ecstatic. “A king passing on the sceptre of the throne to his logical successor,” she exclaimed.

So why criticise Mrs Sonia Gandhi when she reportedly offered to resign “along with her children” from their positions within the Congress Party, accepting responsibility for the party’s ignominious defeat in the recent state Assembly elections. It would have been one thing for the president of the party to offer her resignation, and quite another for her to be doing so as the head of a family. But then, the party is, after all, family property.

When those concerned with the drift in the Congress Party say that they would like Mrs Sonia Gandhi to remain the party president but seek an assurance that her son would not be thrust on them as her successor, they are essentially asking her to behave like a political leader and not like a mother or daughter-in-law. The so-called G-23 within the Congress are trying to bell a cat that has tasted far too much cream and is thus in no mood to be tamed.

While the Congress Party was trying to deal with the problem of dynastic succession, Prime Minister Narendra Modi once again fired a salvo that has now acquired wider political relevance. The BJP, Prime Minister Modi declared, will go forward to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections seeking an end to “parivaarvad” in politics. In saying so, he was not just targeting the Congress Party but several other regional political parties that are viewed as family enterprises. Indeed, to paraphrase Narasimha Rao, even chief ministerships have become proprietorships.

On the issue of “parivaarvad”, even the Congress dissidents are on weak ground. Many of them not only happily accepted “parivaarvad”, but also thrived on it. The only Congress leader who disapproved of dynastic succession when Rajiv Gandhi took charge as Prime Minister and party president was Pranab Mukherjee. He had to subsequently leave the party and then be rehabilitated, but never forgiven.

Narasimha Rao did not challenge Rajiv Gandhi’s elevation but questioned Sonia Gandhi’s special status, treating her as the widow of a slain PM rather than as a PM-in-waiting.

When the Sonia loyalists sought to isolate and defame Narasimha Rao and finally made her party president, everyone who is now in the party went along with the consequences of that coup, namely the reinstallation of dynastic succession. They blamed Narasimha Rao for his political choices that in fact had both party and Cabinet approval. They enjoyed the fruits of office he facilitated with his Chanakyan politics that helped the party remain in power for a full term, but shrugged off all culpability for the government’s actions. They acquiesced in the party erasing Narasimha Rao from its official history.

In its undivided effort to return the party’s leadership to the Nehru-Gandhi family, the entire party blamed Narasimha Rao for all their setbacks and handed the party to Sonia Gandhi, who made it clear from day one that she would want her son to take charge of the party at the appropriate time. The problem for her and her family is that the “appropriate” time has been getting pushed back since Rahul Gandhi has failed to clinch even a single decent political victory after 10 years of wielding power.

The G-23 had many opportunities to push back against an inevitable dynastic succession that Sonia Gandhi sought. None of the dissenters of today said a word when an opportunity presented itself. They had an opportunity to put Rahul Gandhi in his place in 2009 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh led the party back to power with an improved electoral performance. Yet, no one in the party was willing to publicly give credit to Dr Singh for the 2009 victory. They even lionised a cub crediting Rahul Gandhi for that victory.

In September 2013 Rahul Gandhi chose to position himself as a rebel within his own party and mocked the Union Cabinet for approving an ordinance that helped Lalu Prasad Yadav in his battle with the law. No member of the Manmohan Singh government publicly defended the Prime Minister, who presided over that Cabinet meeting. He found himself isolated and under attack at home minutes before his meeting with US President Barack Obama in Washington D.C. Twice these Cabinet colleagues could have spoken up for their PM rather than genuflect before the heir-apparent, and twice they failed to do so.

No wonder the Congress Party’s First Family does not take the dissenters too seriously. A political coup in democratic politics requires guile and cunning but also a sense of timing and, most important, a political agenda and slogan that impart moral stature to the dissenters. Indira Gandhi staged a coup against her party leadership in 1969 by painting herself in ideological colours that appealed to the public and placed the party leadership on the defensive. The G-23 have so far failed to create a narrative that elevates their political status and places “The Family” on the defensive.

The only hope for those who wish to see a future for the Congress Party without dynastic succession being thrust on them is for the dissenters to reach out to former Congress leaders like Mamata Banerjee and reunite a splintered party. More important, they have to craft an alternative political agenda that appeals to large sections of the population. They owe this to the 20 per cent of the electorate that has continued to remain loyal to the party despite the proprietorial pettiness of a decaying leadership.



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There is no moral dilemma to India buying Russian oil. The difficulties that India faces are in balancing its international relations when its ties with the United States have been at their best ever. The US hint to India about the need to stay off Russian oil comes at a time when nations, including those from the West, are trying to strike a geopolitical balance between Joe Biden’s campaign to unite the world against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine and how much of an economic hit to take in the wake of sanctions.

It must be stressed that, even at a time of extreme sanctions against Russia, there is no embargo on buying its energy exports. It can be said that by importing huge quantities of Russian gas and oil to the tune of about $700 mn a day, Europe is financing Vladimir Putin’s war machine that is set to take its first Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Of course, Mr Putin’s aggression against a country that offers Russia no threat means that no one, including most of all the far right in Europe and Trumpists in America, can continue to unabashedly admire the Russian supremo.

India’s position on Ukraine has been crystal clear in standing by Russia despite the invasion, which none including the Russian Ambassador to the UN can deny. Even China has been more conflicted in its stand on Ukraine — though it projects itself, like India, as a neutral power, China says it respects Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, which position India has not explicitly taken. The Russian oil plays an insignificant part in India’s geostrategic interests which are better served by its large defence purchases from Russia, its dependence on that country for keeping its forces armed being huge.

Considering that India has so far been contracting to buy only a little more than a day’s requirements of about six million barrels from European traders dealing in Russian oil — India’s consumption of oil is projected to touch 5.5 mn barrels a day in the course of 2022 — the principle is far more challenging than the import itself. The West’s own ambivalence is in focus now that it is said to be also contracting to buy Iranian crude, which had hitherto been facing US-led nuclear-allied sanctions. It appears all is fair when it comes to exploring energy sources in the face of spiralling oil costs.

Amid the moral questions weighing on India during the Ukraine war, it’s a matter of curiosity that Dalveer Bhandari, the Indian judge on the International Court of Justice at The Hague, co-signed the order of 13 judges asking Russia to suspend its invasion of Ukraine. Taking the international legal position into account, what Mr Bhandari did was right, and commendable too. There are two distinct opinions on the Ukraine situation — the first being official India’s view that does not condemn Russia for waging war and the second and more popular one that is against war and so condemns the aggressor.

It is certain to be recorded in history that India did not condemn the Russian aggression, which is what the White House may have tried to convey. But pragmatism dictates that all energy sources be explored when it comes to oil and India’s political stand on pricing of oil at the pump has ensured no increases yet despite oil touching $139 a barrel at the height of the panic over the war in Ukraine. That may change soon but the awkward moral questions posed by the war will remain.



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Reports that only 1,025 or 17 per cent of the 6,000 transit homes the Narendra Modi-led Union government had in 2015 promised to build for the Kashmiri migrants, including the Kashmiri Pandits, are completed, reflect the lethargy with which the Indian State approaches the issue of people who have been made homeless in their own land.

The Rs 920-crore transit accommodation project was meant for members of the community which was forced to leave their homes in 1990 when Pakistan-backed terrorists unleashed mayhem in the valley. The government had promised them 3,000 jobs and they could stay in the transit homes until they returned to their original home villages. So far, only 1,739 people have been accommodated in the government service; while work on more than half the transit accommodation units has not even started.

The government blames a series of factors including non-availability of land in the initial phase and cost escalation as the reasons for the delay.  It is estimated that there are more than four lakh people from 64,827 registered migrant families — majority of whom are Hindus while there are also Muslim and Sikh families — and a vast majority of them continue to live in camps in Jammu, Delhi and other states.

The refugees of Kashmir are a favourite propaganda theme of the BJP whether there are elections or not. Little does the party remember that it was in power at the Centre in 13 of the 32 years after the exodus; or that it ruled the Jammu and Kashmir state along with the People’s Democratic Party for three years from 2015 March to June 2018, and wields total control of the state in the last two-and-a-half years ever since Article 370 was abrogated in August 2019. Yet, very little has been done for the migrants. If the party means business and wants deliver justice to the Kashmiri Pandits, it should work for their resettlement with full vigour instead of stopping at demanding tax concession for a film that depicts the injustice they met.



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