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Editorials - 06-05-2022

They have always mixed — the crucial thing is to not allow sport and sportspersons to be used as pawns

A fortnight ago, Wimbledon decided to deny entries to players from Russia and Belarus for the 2022 edition of the tournament. Coming as it did against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Wimbledon said it was to thwart any attempt from the Russian regime to “derive any benefits from the involvement of Russian or Belarusian players with The Championships”. Many other sports, such as football, track and field, and Formula One, have also imposed sanctions of varying degrees. This has resurrected the debate on the influence of politics on sport. In a discussion moderated byN. Sudarshan, Sharda Ugra and Zeeshan Ali discuss the various facets of the same. Edited excerpts:

Is it possible to separate sports and politics? Can sports exist in a vacuum?

Sharda Ugra:Everyone always says, ‘Let’s try and separate sports from politics.’ But sport takes place within society, it is a product of society, and society is constantly being impacted by politics. So, it’s very hard to separate them. Given the history of political involvement in sport, because sport is seen as an agent of soft power, we will always end up in a situation like where we are today. In the highly professionalised world of elite sport, it gets even more complicated. We want to exist in an almost utopian sphere and go back to an amateur era. But you know, even that was not very utopian in the first place.

Zeeshan Ali:I totally agree with Sharda. Sports and politics have always mixed. In 1974, India was to play the Davis Cup final against South Africa but we had to give a walkover because of the apartheid issue. In 1988, we were drawn to play Israel (in the World Group relegation play-offs) and we had to give a walkover again. Unfortunately, sports and arts do get affected [by politics] and when a government is involved in taking certain decisions, it’s very difficult for an individual to go against it.

Is there room for the ‘right kind of politics’? Is a morally upright stance like the one during apartheid possible in the present-day world of competing interests?

SU:Politics was made to play a part in sport and outside of sport to try and push the apartheid regime to change its stance. You will look at that and say, ‘That was a good thing.’ But people of my generation remember what it was like for countries like India and other non-white nations to stand up against this huge, almost monolith West which seemed to think it was okay to go and play in South Africa. Countries fought very hard against the Western world to say that South Africa’s policies were extremely flawed and had to be fixed. Sport was used as one measure to push through that message. We also see how sport has been used politically to send out a message, like Nazi Germany did in 1936 (the Berlin Games were a show of Nazi propaganda). The South African example is perhaps the only one I can think of that ended in the right way.

How should sports bodies respond when there are conflicting and ethical arguments on both sides?

ZA:What is right for one country does not necessarily mean it is right for the other. In the case of South Africa, the whole world was getting together for a reason, a humanitarian one. What’s happening right now is completely different. A superpower is taking over another country, and sports is becoming part of the politics. I was part of the team in 1988 when we had to give a walkover to Israel. After having reached the final of the Davis Cup the previous year, it was a huge shock to us. But that was the stance the Indian government took and we were just small players. Frankly speaking, sportspeople don’t really have much of a say. It’s sad for somebody like Daniil Medvedev to not be allowed to play certain tournaments. If a government decides that certain players or certain countries should not be playing, that is political and it is unfortunate that sportspeople get affected by it.

The moves from Wimbledon and other bodies are being projected as sport doing its bit to bring about peace. Can sport assume such a big role where some players will inevitably be collateral damage?

SU:It’s interesting for people to say that ‘sport is playing its part’. There is the NHL (National Hockey League) in the U.S. where Russians are still playing. So, I think it’s a little self-righteous to say that. In the case of Wimbledon, I did get the feeling that the British foreign office made a big noise. No other individual tennis tournament has said that they will not allow Russians. When are we going to talk about Israel and Palestine? Is that not an issue that should be front and centre? A conflict has been going on for decades there. So, it’s a bit overambitious on the part of sport to think that way. For an individual sport to be doing it is literally a slippery slope. Where do you stop and on whose behalf do you stop? You do understand the anguish of the Ukrainian athletes on what’s happening in their country. But to imagine that this will work by having Russians not take part… It’s not well thought through.

ZA:There is this debate going on right now that the entry into Wimbledon is not based on nationality but on ranking. So, why is Wimbledon not allowing Russian players to play? They are already playing under a neutral flag. Like Sharda mentioned the Israel-Palestine issue, tomorrow it could be another country that might have issues with its neighbour. So, will you stop every single sportsperson from that country? It’s a dangerous precedent. I just hope going forward sports doesn’t become a plaything for any government to decide, ‘Okay, tomorrow, we don’t want this or that country to play because we don’t kind of agree with their policies.’ There is no end to it.

Sports bodies and governments have tried to clamp down on all forms of protest. On the other hand, they do not shy away from using these very events and successes of sportspersons to enrich their standing. How do you see this dichotomy?

SU:You see elite sports use platforms of all kinds of governments to stage events. Look at where some Formula One races are held. There was also a controversy about Qatar being given the rights to host the FIFA World Cup. So, it’s almost like you have played into the hands of the people in power. I think, sport, perhaps, should find a way to ring-fence itself. The Olympics is another kettle of fish because there are a number of international federations. But at least sports like tennis, that are high profile, very elite with a lot of money, highly professionalised and largely well-run, should really fence themselves away. I just wanted to bring up the case of Peng Shuai, the Chinese tennis player who had spoken out against a [government] official. Tennis’s response at that time was outstanding. It stood up for its player and took tournaments away from China. Even though it’s come to a point where we do not know what the truth really is, tennis’s first line of defence was, ‘Let us speak to her. She’s our athlete. Let us look after her.’ And what has Wimbledon done? It has said, ‘It’s somebody else’s thing. Let’s get these people out.’ Sport should not allow this. What was the symbol of the athlete at the end of 2020 and 2021? It was to take a knee, to raise a fist and to stand up against discrimination. That’s the way sport should be used, rather than this kind of exclusion, which is what Martina Navratilova also said. Exclusion is not the way to go.

ZA:Sport is supposed to unite and not divide us. It is dividing people right now and that’s the last thing we want. I was at the Olympics in 1988 and then I was the (non-playing) captain of the Indian team in 2016 in Rio. The kind of atmosphere you have in the village, especially in the dining room area, where you have people from different countries sitting together... It’s not a question of colour or language or anything. Everybody over there is a sportsperson. In Rio, there was a McDonald’s outlet where people would queue up for one kilometre. In that one kilometre, you had people from 100 different nationalities standing and talking to each other. That’s uniting people. Unfortunately, the situation now is doing anything but that and sport is a loser.

When governments play such a huge role in sports, from funding to presiding over events, can we expect sports and politics to be detached?

SU:I don’t think so. Particularly in Olympic sports where, in around 75% of the countries, funding is from the government and through taxpayers. So, you do know that the government will be trying to stamp its authority. But professional sport doesn’t require anything other than, say, permissions to stage events. So, it’s the duty of professional sport to stay a bit more clear-headed and vigilant about how much politics it will allow. If sport wants to play a part, let it raise money for the refugees and all other causes. What’s happening in tennis is largely a propaganda exercise and you cannot fall into this. Because political involvement is not going to reduce. It’s like what George Orwell said about the image of the future being the boot on the face. You have to push back as much as you can.

ZA:I don’t think sports and politics are ever going to be detached. Sports bodies in most countries come under the jurisdiction of the government. Let’s leave the BCCI out of it, but I’m talking about other sports in the country, like hockey, that are completely reliant on the sports ministry and the government. It also cannot be a sports body’s decision to go against the government because there will be repercussions. But like Sharda said, there needs to be some amount of leeway given, for a certain stand to be taken concerning big political decisions. As much as we would like sports and politics not to mingle, it’s not happened in so many years and, unfortunately, going forward also I don’t see it happening. Even in individual sport, if you were to go against your nation’s decision of not playing in a particular country or traveling to a particular country, there may be repercussions. A government can say, ‘Okay, we will withhold your passport.’ And then you cannot travel to any part of the world. So, we sportspeople and sports federations have to at some point abide by these decisions, whether it is good for the sport or not. Unfortunately, we’re just pawns in something much bigger.

SU:It was quite interesting to hear what Zeeshan had to say. To my mind the IPL (Indian Premier League) is a classic example of how politics has been allowed to spread itself completely over the sport. So, we cannot have Pakistan players in the IPL. Is cricket a team sport? Yes, absolutely. But it’s a team sport with teams from Mumbai and other cities. An Indian team will always win the IPL. But you can’t have Pakistan players because of an unwritten rule and because there will be some ‘hassle’. There will not be any hassle…. hassle will be created. Cricket in India, and Pakistan, has allowed itself to be completely overwhelmed and manipulated by politics. Cricket has become the currency with which politics is enacted. And when Wimbledon has done something like this now, it shouldn’t want to become currency again. That’s what Zeeshan said, ‘You can allow yourself to be manipulated terribly before you even know it.’

It’s the duty of professional sport to stay more clear-headed and vigilant about how much politics it will allow. If sport wants to play a part, let it raise money for the refugees and all other causes. What’s happening in tennis is largely a propaganda exercise.

Sharda Ugra



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The uniform has been transformed into a new political tool and as a means to curtailing the autonomy of educationists

Nowhere in the long history of education can you find evidence to say that a school uniform is a factor in learning. Yet, a lot of people today cannot imagine a school without a uniform. When they think about a school, including their own, they think about the uniform that makes its children distinct from the children of other schools. Especially on festive occasions when grand events bring all the schools of a city together, people find something deeply edifying in the spectacle of children marching or displaying their smartness wearing a distinct uniform. The public fascination with such spectacles, and the history of the school uniform, point to the single most important role that a school uniform plays: it helps in the regimentation of the young. Uniformly dressed children constitute one of the two archetypal metaphors of schooling. One is that of a garden where different flowers bloom; the other is of an army of little soldiers marching together.

A history, social impact

If you divide the world into countries that have a compulsory uniform in their schools and countries that do not, the history starts to reveal itself. Systems of education that evolved under colonial rulers of different types generally favour strict enforcement of the school uniform. That includes us.

If you strain popular memories and scan old photographs, you will find that the idea of a school uniform has spread with urbanisation, prosperity and privatisation. Rural and small town schools seldom insisted on a daily uniform in the early years of Independence. It was required on certain days of the week and on special days. Gradually, when different types of private schools started, they demanded every day wearing of the prescribed uniform. Supply of uniforms for children of different schools offered business opportunities for local cloth merchants, tailors and shoe stores. Instead of offering competitive pricing, the uniform business encouraged local monopolies. In many cases, the schools assented to participate and asked parents to patronise a particular source.

Command-based system

This short, and obviously generalised social history has little apparent relevance to the situation in Karnataka. Nicely hemmed in between the order of the Directorate and the court, a complete uniform code has evolved within a few weeks. Its regime now encompasses the classroom as well as the examination hall. And although Kendriya Vidyalayas (central schools) are not governed by any provincial government, the ones located in Karnataka have fallen in line. Their stance is not difficult to appreciate under the circumstances.

Thus, one of India’s most literate and prosperous States, globally famous for its advancements in the so-called knowledge economy, has emerged as the crucible of educational orthodoxy and control. The school uniform has mutated into a new political tool, and as a means of curtailing the already limited autonomy of principals and teachers. To what extent the politics of the school dress will influence electoral outcomes will become a subject fit for research in the social sciences. Systematic study of the school dress, its history and fascination, was long overdue.

It is interesting that the uniform controversy erupted in the secondary education system of a State that bypassed major policy reforms of the 1960s. Pre-university or junior colleges are left in only a small number of States now. Elsewhere in the country, the 10+2 model recommended by the Kothari Commission nearly 60 years ago prevails. It led to a significant reorganisation of the administrative system in education. Its full potential would have been realised had school principals and teachers been given a greater say and freedom in establishing the norms that govern institutional life.

Another gain would have been a participatory role for the community in matters of day-to-day life at school. Had the vision of the Kothari report — sculpted by its Member-Secretary, J.P. Naik — been realised in its entirety, bureaucratic authority would have declined, creating greater room for school autonomy. A different kind of politics might have emerged, with the school as its intellectual resource. Karnataka might have been a highly fertile social ground for such alternative democratic polity because of its own history and propulsion towards decentralised governance.

History took a different direction. The picture of a teacher or principal of a junior college in Karnataka stopping a student from entering the examination hall on account of a dress item will serve as a symbol of unkindness for many years to come. Hopefully, her predicament will also become a subject of discussion in teacher education colleges. The question it will raise is: ‘Did she voluntarily agree to be so unkind to a student in order to be compliant to orders?’ An administrative query might also be worth pursuing: ‘Did the Directorate’s order on the specified uniform extend to the examination hall?’ Notionally it did, but then it stretched the normal role of a school uniform — to provide a collective institutional identity. If that identity covers the examination hall, why do students need a hall ticket, establishing their individual identity? Let us hope the legal argument on this issue will go into these uncharted layers of the lives of learners and examinees.

Key distinction

Even at this juncture, it is worth recalling a key distinction. A uniform is different from a dress code. A uniform is more prescriptive than a dress code. The latter may expect children and their parents to avoid using clothes flaunting status or wealth. A uniform, on the other hand, may well go as far as prescribing not just the colour but also the material and the design or cut. In older times, it was considered sufficient to recommend a dress code; nowadays even a fully defined uniform does not seem to suffice. The social ethos promotes conspicuous consumption (a phrase used by the economist, Veblen), and banquet halls serve this aim as efficiently as schools. Uniforms do help to maintain a veneer of equality in a society where inequality is pervasive.

Education, however, is supposed to promote equal opportunities for all strata and sections of society in more substantial ways. One important contribution that education can make in this direction is to widen the scope of public debates, enabling the participation of all concerned, especially teachers. They are in far closer touch with students from different backgrounds and, therefore, will be more sensitive to what makes classroom life more comfortable for all.

No modern philosopher has explained the problems that underlie this state of collective existence better than Sri Aurobindo. InThe Ideal of Human Unity , he draws upon diversity in nature to explain why uniformity tempts us, but does not contribute to a sense of relatedness or unity. He extends his analysis to all aspects of social, cultural and political life, including international relations. In our present context, the issue underlying the turmoil in Karnataka has to do with the role of education and the manner in which it functions as a system. As the term ‘uniform’ suggests, a common dress conveys that all differences have been overcome.

Had that been the case in Karnataka, the Directorate would not have to exert its pressure to seek compliance. The expectations this resilient institution forged under colonial rule harbours in its bureaucratic heart are best illustrated by a story J.P. Naik told me. The Kothari Commission had suggested ways to make classroom teaching less stereotyped, and more lively and child-centred. Soon after the Commission’s report received official approval, the Directorate in Maharashtra fired off a D.O. (i.e. demi-official) order to all schools that, as per the desire of the competent authority, henceforth, all teaching must be child-centred!

Professor Krishna Kumar is a former Director of the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) and the author of ‘Smaller Citizens’



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The U.S. Supreme Court’s ‘decision’ might have fired up the political scene, but the health statistics must not be ignored

It was something that literally no one expected, and from the portals of the Supreme Court of the United States — a leaked draft of the court’s decision on abortion law indicating that a majority of the Justices might have just about agreed to overturn the 1973 landmarkRoe vs Wade that legalised abortion in America. When Politico got its hands on the 98-page draft, and other media organisations jumped on the bandwagon, all hell broke loose, and expectedly so. In an already divisive country, nothing rankles the partisans more than the sensitive subject of abortion.

Some have likened the leaked document as being the equivalent of thePentagon Papers that surfaced during the Nixon era. In a country where leaks are not out of the ordinary, these have been mostly confined to the White House and the vast bureaucracies, but not from the sacred hallways of the Supreme Court. In fact, one argument has been that even in the heightened political environment of 2000, when the election of a President (George W. Bush/Al Gore) was being decided , there was not even a whisper about which way the Justices were leaning.

Reactions

But not so this time around. Within a short period of time, the accusations have begun, with the needle of suspicion pointing to the Liberal Justices in the apex court, their clerks and allies, with the intention of alerting the nation about what was in store. According to the story, the first draft had the consent of five Conservative Justices with the Chief Justice, John Roberts, yet to weigh in. “The left continues its assault on the Supreme Court with an unprecedented breach of confidentiality, clearly meant to intimidate. The Justices mustn’t give in to this attempt to corrupt the process. Stay strong”, tweeted Republican Senator from Missouri, Josh Hawley.

Top Democrats were quick on the draw as well. In a statement, Senate Majority leader Charles Schumer and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said, “If the report is accurate, the Supreme Court is poised to inflict that greatest restriction of rights in the past 50 years — not just on women but on all Americans. The Republican-appointed justices’ reported votes to overturnRoe v Wade would go down as an abomination, one of the worst and most damaging decisions in modern history.”

Out of the nine Justices, six have been appointed by Republican Presidents. Politico has stated that the so-called first draft was supposedly prepared by Justice Samuel Alito with the sole intention of overturning the Court’s ruling on Roe vs Wade and a 1992 decision inPlanned Parenthood vs Casey . In the “Opinion of the Court”, Justice Alito is said to have written that “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start” and that it must be overruled. “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s representatives”, he is said to have added.

Chief Justice Roberts would want a full-scale investigation into the leak which would most certainly involve the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); and there is an element of uncertainty as to whether the top court will stay on schedule for a decision in June/July. The argument that the first draft need not necessarily be the final word on the subject has had few takers, with both supporters and opponents in a no-holds barred slanging match, with at least one conservative commentator describing the leak as amounting to an “insurrection” against the top court.

The political angle

There is, undoubtedly, a political angle to this, especially in the run-up to the mid-term elections of November 8 which is about six months away. More immediately, the leak will be seen as having an impact on the primaries that are scheduled in the next few weeks. In a national poll by Marquette Law School in January 2022, 72% were opposed to overturningRoe vs Wade as opposed to only 28% who were in favour. And Democratic lawmakers have once again come together to call for codifyingRoe vs Wade into law — a task that is easier said than done given that the Democrats do not have 60 votes in the Senate and dissension within their ranks on getting rid of filibuster as a procedural tool.

“… the repercussions will be significant,” argued Aditi Vaidya of the Center for Health Systems and Policy in the School of Medicine of Tufts University this February. “The removal of the constitutional right to abortion will be felt most among low income people, people of color and rural communities across the country. As history so clearly tells us, banning abortion does not stop them from occurring, it pushes them underground, limiting access to safe abortions,” she added, pointing to dangerous methods, unqualified persons in procedures and online pharmacies peddling abortion pills.

Some data

Even as the heated debate has just started and is one that will intensify in the weeks ahead, statistics speak of about 6,30,000 reported abortions in the United States in 2019, down 18% from 2010; 57% of the women were in their twenties; African-American women had the highest rate of abortions, of 27 per 1,000 women aged between 15 years and 44 years. These are telling statistics that the Republicans and the Democrats need to keep in mind as they wrestle for political points.

Sridhar Krishnaswami was a senior journalist in Washington covering North America and the United Nations



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The little gestures that prove that journalism is not such a thankless profession after all

Five years ago, on a September afternoon, a barefoot man in a crisp white dhoti and shirt enteredThe Hindu ‘s Madurai office with much trepidation. It was 65-year-old K. Balasooriyan’s first visit to the office of the newspaper he grew up reading. But on that particular day, it was a different kind of engagement for the owner of the 110-year-old popular and budget eatery, Hotel Kathiravan in Srivilliputhur.

For a food column in the features supplement,MetroPlus , I had profiled the iconic traditional mess with a small interview of Mr. Balasooriyan. As a reporter, it was one of my regular assignments for which I had travelled to Srivilliputhur and spent a day watching the kitchen open, the quick on-the-go homemade meals getting prepared and being served hot to travellers and the locals, who kept trooping in from noon till late afternoon.

The day the story was published, much to my surprise, Mr. Balasooriyan walked into our features cabin. His humble demeanour made him look like a splitting image of R.K. Laxman’s common man. He stood in silence with moist eyes, raised his hands in blessing and was immediately ready to go back.

He said he took the public bus from Srivilliputhur, 70 km from Madurai, just to convey his gratitude for the article. He was to again take the evening bus home. I asked him why he took so much effort instead of making a telephone call. In this age of digital communication, a face-to-face meeting was more important for him, he said. His gesture could not be challenged. That a newspaper that his father always cajoled him to read would one day carry an article on his family restaurant left him humbled. It was a strong enough reason for him to hop on to the morning bus and come all the way to our office to express his gratitude. Overwhelmed by the affection he showed, I struggled to make his three-hour journey worth the time. He was shy and all I could do was give him a few more copies of the paper and take him around the office and introduce him to other colleagues. “I dislike frills and fancy. My purpose was to meet you and bless you and that has been met,” he said while taking leave.

Another time I interviewed A. Kuppuram, the owner of Madurai’s only decent book store, Turning Point. Fondly nicknamed ‘Bookram’, he had faced many struggles but always remained motivated to grow his store. Each time I approached him for an interview for my column on people making a difference, he would say he is not deserving enough to be featured in The Hindu.

Finally, when he agreed and we carried his story 12 autumns ago, he filled my mail box with beautiful messages that he had received from his friends and well-wishers. And then, to convey his heart-felt thanks, he came to meet me in person and waited patiently in the reception for over four hours as I was out on an assignment.

When we met, he said he turned teary-eyed seeing the morning paper. He told me he felt honoured because his story had been placed below A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s interview. “So many people called to congratulate me. You have made me a celebrity overnight. I will remember this moment till my last breath,” he said. Unfortunately, the city’s czar of books passed away three months later. His thank you messages are more consequential than ever.

Appreciation is hard to come by but then such responses prove that journalism is not such a thankless job after all. In the world today, where comments filled with bile on the media are everywhere, a ‘thank you’ truly resonates deeper than usual.

soma.basu@thehindu.co.in



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An overemphasis on a ritualistic oathdoes not aid quality medical education

Observance of rituals largely serves a symbolic function; they are infused with meaning that gives a semblance of human-made order to the vagaries of nature. But pushing the meaning beyond the symbolism is fraught with danger. Standing on ceremony, particularly, does not quite fit in with the roles and the responsibilities of a medical professional, and the Charak Shapath row in Tamil Nadu, in which a top official of a government medical college was put on a waitlist, has clearly dragged one ceremony beyond its original intent and purpose. While things came to a head with the suspension of the dean of Madurai Government Medical College, the controversy has been brewing since February, when the minutes of the National Medical Commission’s (NMC) discussions with medical colleges were leaked. One of the points read: “No Hippocratic Oath. During white coat ceremony, the oath will be Maharishi Charak Shapath.” The Charak oath appears as part of Charaka Samhita, an ancient text on Ayurveda, and seeks to, much like the Hippocratic Oath, lay down the ground rules for the practice of medicine for a student. While it emphasises compassion, and the scientific and ethical practice of medicine, it also highlights certain values embedded in the cultural and social ethos of the time of Charaka, and seen today as retrograde. References to caste, old-style subjugation of student to a guru, and gender bias have been flagged since. Though it was later clarified that the oath was not compulsory, there were valid concerns about projecting it as a substitute for the Hippocratic Oath.

In the English version that was read out at Madurai Medical College, there were two references that are repugnant — ‘Submitting myself to my Guru (teachers) with complete dedicated feeling,’ and ‘I, (especially a male doctor) shall treat a woman only in the presence of her husband or a near relative’. The rest of the oath stresses, in simple language, the very principles of the Hippocratic Oath, including serving the sick, a pleasant bedside manner, and not being corrupt. Subsequent investigations have revealed that the dean was not even part of the decision to substitute the Charak Shapath for the Hippocratic Oath (the Students’ Council claimed responsibility), and he has since been reinstated. But launching severe action for what might have been just procedurally deviant, rather than a crime or violation of ethics, seems a knee-jerk reaction, or worse, the pursuit of a political agenda. The focus should rather be on ensuring quality medical education, inculcating in students a scientific temper, and a sense of service to patients. While Tamil Nadu has often rightly argued for States’ autonomy in a federal structure, this act adds little heft to that critical issue. For the NMC, even more so, the stress should not be on the bells and whistles, but rather on the quality of education.



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Widening trade deficit puts more pressure on the rupee and spurs growth-retarding inflation

Official data on India’s merchandise trade for April give reason for cheer at first glance. Emerging from a record export performance during the just-concluded financial year, outward shipments for the month rose 24.2% from a year earlier, with electronics and chemicals showing healthy expansion, while petroleum products more than doubled. However, imports continued to outpace exports, growing by 26.6% to broaden the goods trade deficit, which widened to $20.07 billion from $18.5 billion in March. The trade deficit — the extent to which the import bill exceeds export receipts — worryingly breached $200 billion for a rolling 12-month period for the first time in April, impacted predominantly by petroleum imports of $172 billion. Global crude oil prices have surged by more than 40% in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, swelling the import bill. The early onset of the Indian summer, with a heatwave, has bolstered power demand, setting the pace for coal imports, which grew 136% last month, notwithstanding record output by key domestic supplier Coal India. For the first time ever, the Ministry of Power has set timelines for States to import coal over the next few months, a far cry from the 16% year-on-year decline in imports of the fuel in the April 2021-January 2022 period and a clear portent that the bill for overseas purchases of coal is also set to swell.

Monitoring the trade deficit is crucial as this has a direct bearing on the current account deficit (CAD). Disconcertingly, foreign direct investment, which typically helps bridge the CAD, has seen a moderation. And, the wider the CAD, the greater the downward pressure on the rupee, which has already weakened considerably since the conflict in eastern Europe began in February. A weaker rupee, in turn, makes imports costlier, potentially widening the trade deficit, and thus triggering a vicious cycle. The RBI has sought to steady the rupee against wild swings, evident in the dip in foreign exchange reserves to $600.4 billion (April 22), from $640 billion just six months earlier. But a central bank can draw on the reserves to ease any rupee weakening only to a limited extent. The RBI also has its hands full with the battle against imported inflation as global commodity prices remain sharply elevated. To help avoid added stress, the Government must consider additional incentives for exports, while encouraging local production of items that strain the import bill. The coal crisis could have been averted with better advance estimates of power demand as the country emerged from the worst of the pandemic, and optimal allocation of coal-carrying rail wagons. Policymakers can ill afford to let their guard down on trade imbalances and risk growth-retarding inflation and more pressure on the rupee.



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Moscow, May 5: India’s demand for increased supplies of fertilizers, non-ferrous metals and newsprint have been met in the Indo-Soviet Trade Protocol for 1972 signed here to-day. The Newsprint quota agreed upon is over 50,000 tonnes. The Ministers of Foreign Trade of India and the Soviet Union, Mr. L. N. Mishra and Mr. Nikolai Potalichev, signed the document at a brief official ceremony. The protocol visualised sale upto Rs. 5 crore worth of Soviet tractors to India as a prelude to co-operation in building Indian capacities in tractor building. The two countries agreed to set up a Joint Committee including the two Ministers of Foreign Trade and officials to further expand and enrich trade which is already targeted to touch Rs. 500 crore mark this year. This year’s turn-over is expected to exceed the volume of 1970 by 30 per cent. Summing up the results of his talks here, Mr. Mishra told PTI they were very successful. The Soviet attitude was extremely helpful and co-operative and they showed high appreciation of India’s problems.He acquainted the Soviet side with his plans for structural changes in India’s foreign trade which will place greater reliance on trade with the USSR, other centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe and developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.



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Prickly AAP, zealous Punjab Police, Delhi and Haryana Police as their master's voice

The pull-and-push on Friday over the arrest of Delhi BJP spokesperson Tajinder Pal Singh Bagga by the hyper-zealous police forces of three states, apparently acting at the behest of two dueling ruling parties, was a deeply unedifying spectacle. Of course, the violations of the rules of the game that it showcases are not startlingly new. The (mis)use of the police by the party in power, the weaponisation of the penal code to target a political opponent, or the crossing of state boundaries and federal norms in the course of vendetta campaigns, have been seen before. They are, unfortunately, stale news. And yet, no matter which version of Friday’s sequence of events you choose to run with, the arrest of Bagga in Delhi in the morning hours, over comments he made against Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, by a police team that swooped in from AAP-ruled Punjab, followed by their attempt to spirit him away to Mohali in AAP-land, foiled en route by Haryana Police acting in tandem with Delhi Police, both reporting to BJP governments, points to a hijacking of due process that is vividly flagrant and a cause for serious concern.

At the core of the drama lies freedom of speech, or rather its unfreedom. On this count, the BJP’s playing of the victim card is a little too rich — BJP-ruled governments have rightly earned themselves a formidable reputation for prickliness and vengefulness. Be it the arrest of Disha Ravi for dissemination of a toolkit during the farm protests or of Jignesh Mevani most recently for a tweet against the PM, instances of BJP governments setting the police on their critics and political opponents are growing. But if that is the irony, the tragedy is that, increasingly, the BJP’s Opposition is playing by the BJP’s book. Bagga isn’t exactly the paragon of political civility. Fom assaulting lawyer Prashant Bhushan in 2011 to vandalising his nameplate in 2017, only the terribly foolhardy would venture to defend his well-known incivilities. This time, his tweets against Kejriwal may be crude and offensive but the response of the AAP government to criticism of its leader is so disproportionate that it draws the spotlight squarely back on the party’s own display of intolerance and flouting of federal restraints. It is not just its unabashed use of the police in the state it rules, it is also the disregard, in the process, of established norms that govern inter-state action by the police that is striking in the Bagga episode.

Last month, the newly elected AAP government in Punjab sent the Punjab Police to the doorsteps of at least three other critics of Kejriwal — former AAP leader Kumar Vishwas, Congress leader (also formerly AAP) Alka Lamba, and Delhi BJP’s Naveen Jindal. It’s as if newcomer AAP seems to be in a hurry to prove that it can outdo the dominant player at its own dismal game. That, if it doesn’t have the Delhi Police, it can play political master with the Punjab Police. In doing so, however, it is surrendering precious possibilities and shrinking spaces for a political alternative — the role it fancies itself playing. The AAP is in power in more than one state now, it needs to grow a thicker skin and recognise that its me-too politics has a larger cost.



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Amid international pressure to end the fighting for the Falkland Islands, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had a meeting with her war cabinet to discuss the loss of the destroyer H M S Sheffield knocked down by Argentine forces with at least 30 killed.

Amid international pressure to end the fighting for the Falkland Islands, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had a meeting with her war cabinet to discuss the loss of the destroyer H M S Sheffield knocked down by Argentine forces with at least 30 killed. Mrs Thatcher who vowed to continue the fight to regain the Falkland Islands faced mounting pressure on the fifth day of hostilities with Argentina from domestic opposition and European allies calling for a ceasefire. The diplomatic moves followed the attack on the British destroyer Sheffield, which was hit by Argentine fighters in response to the sinking of the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano by a British submarine. Defence Secretary John Nott told Parliament that British ships were still engaged in the operation despite the loss of the destroyer.

Rebels Pardoned

The Congress (I) has decided to pardon rebels, defectors from the Congress (U) after the 1980 elections and several others with a view to getting their help in the election battles in West Bengal, Haryana, Kerala and Himachal Pradesh. Following a meeting last week, the party has taken a series of steps which virtually amounted to a general pardon not only to the rebels but also to those against whom action has been taken.

Anand Margi Killings

The Centre is not thinking of ordering a separate probe into the killing of Ananda Margis in Calcutta on April 30, the minister of state for home Nihar Ranjan Laskar told the Rajya Sabha. Laskar could not provide satisfactory answers to questions asked by members during a call-in-attention motion in which the Congress and Left Front members clashed. The latter suspected the former of conspiring against the government in West Bengal.



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The proportion of people dying for want of medical attention increased from 34.5 per cent of all recorded deaths in 2019 to 45 per cent in 2020 — the largest single-year jump.

In the past two years, as the Covid pandemic cast a lengthening shadow over lives and livelihoods, a substantial body of reportage, surveys and scholarly accounts shone a light on the deficiencies of India’s healthcare system. The plight of Covid patients who could not get timely medical care during the first and second waves is a shared memory. With the virus-afflicted swamping hospitals and resources being diverted to contain the pandemic, concerns were also expressed about patients of other diseases being left in the lurch. These fears were not adequately addressed. An analysis by this newspaper of the Civil Registration System (CRS) data, released on Tuesday, conveys the magnitude of the country’s healthcare deficit during the first year of the crisis. The proportion of people dying for want of medical attention increased from 34.5 per cent of all recorded deaths in 2019 to 45 per cent in 2020 — the largest single-year jump. Deaths under institutional care dropped from 32.1 per cent to 28 per cent, the sharpest ever decline. The 2021 fact sheet is likely to be even more grave, given the more lethal second wave.

Since 2011, an increasing number of mortalities in the country have been brought under the CRS ambit. In 2019, 92 per cent of all estimated deaths were registered. This increase has been concomitant with another tendency: The proportion of people dying without receiving medical attention has been going up in the past 10 years. The pandemic seems to have accelerated this trend. The office of the Registrar General does not give a disease-wise break-up of deaths. But read along with other studies, the data set released on Tuesday is a useful indicator of the pressure on the medical system during the pandemic. For instance, the WHO estimates that in 2020, the country lost the highest number of people to tuberculosis since 2013 even as there was a sharp decline in the number of TB cases that were detected in the first year of the pandemic. There have also been several reports of critically ill people — many of them with Covid-related comorbidities such as cancer, diabetes, kidney and cardiovascular disease — being neglected during the fight against the coronavirus.

The Ayushman Bharat programme has considerably expanded the scope of healthcare in the country. But the pandemic should occasion more serious thinking on addressing the shortfalls. The country’s rapidly increasing chronic diseases caseload, detailed in the Global Burden of Disease studies of the past five years, underlines that this task cannot be left for later.



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Elon Musk suggests that Twitter may not stay free-for-all. The bottom line, it seems, trumps 'free speech absolutism'

Beware the moral certitude of the eccentric billionaire. He may claim, for example, that the $42-billion purchase of a social media giant is the consequence of him being a “free speech absolutist”. The debate in the digital public square, according to Elon Musk, is best protected by shielding it from content moderation, government oversight as well as a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. But less than a month after he purchased Twitter, taking the company private, Musk has hinted that free speech may need to be monetised.

Earlier this week, Musk tweeted “Twitter will always be free for casual users, but maybe a slight cost for commercial/government users” and that “some revenue is better than none!”. On the face of it, his logic isn’t all that unreasonable. Why should corporations and governments avail a service for free? After all, Twitter is a for-profit company, and making money is its ultimate aim. But what raises suspicion is Musk’s earlier posturing, his claim that his stewardship was about principle and not profit. Perhaps he has changed his mind, given the speculation that the estimated $1 billion interest on the loan he took out to fund the purchase will need to be recouped: A more lean, profitable company can be taken public again, and earn Musk a neat packet to boot.

The world’s richest man is sending mixed messages. Is Twitter to be more about profit, a shrewd business deal by a consummate businessman or is it a political-social mission? Given how much he oscillates, and how controversial his social media persona has been, Musk must clarify whether, if the bottom line demands it, free speech will need to be paid for. After all, he came out against content moderation of hate speech and bigotry. A monetary barrier to entry is, perhaps, the kind of gatekeeping to the right to free expression that billionaire activists are okay with.



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The government of Narendra Modi deserves credit for moving towards cracking the European code. Even more impressive is the successful alignment of European strengths in technological innovation, clean energy, and green growth with the significant Indian needs in these vital sectors.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s short and productive swing through Germany, Denmark and France this week underlines the belated realisation of the immense possibilities for an enduring strategic partnership between India and Europe. The past ideological dualisms of India’s foreign policy — East versus West, North versus South — left little room for substantive engagement between India and Europe in the first decades after Independence. The end of the Cold War and India’s economic reforms did produce new possibilities for building a solid partnership in the 1990s. But the old inhibitions in Delhi continued to limit its engagement with Europe, and the bilateral relationship continued to dither. The government of Narendra Modi deserves credit for moving towards cracking the European code. It devoted significant political and diplomatic energies for breaking the prolonged political stasis in India’s European diplomacy. It is entirely unsurprising that the rewards have begun to come through — whether it is in enhancing economic partnerships or deepening security cooperation with key European nations. Even more impressive is the successful alignment of European strengths in technological innovation, clean energy, and green growth with the significant Indian needs in these vital sectors.

On the face of it, the war in Ukraine seemed to hark back to the old East-West paradigm of the Cold War. India’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine seemed a deal-breaker at a time when Moscow launched a war in the heart of Europe. Through PM Modi’s visit, there has been a conscious effort by both sides to narrow the differences and better appreciate the concerns of each other on Ukraine. India and Europe have also begun to find some common ground on addressing the humanitarian and other consequences of the war. In the past, the tension between mitigating climate change and India’s pressing imperative of economic growth was seen as part of an irreconcilable North-South contradiction. The European enthusiasm for partnering India on sustainable development during Modi’s visit underlines the virtue of approaching climate change and growth on the basis of pragmatism rather than ideology.

As is his wont, Modi also spent time with the growing Indian diaspora in Europe. Besides the PM’s political interest in mobilising the diaspora, there is a new Indian emphasis on “migration and mobility” agreements that address an important conundrum — Europe’s need for foreign professional talent (India has it in plenty) and its growing fear of illegal immigration. Successful implementation of this framework would significantly advance the construction of a new living bridge between India and Europe. Arguably, the most significant outcome from Modi’s European visit is the big shift in India’s thinking on how to build a multipolar world. In the mid 1990s, India wanted to get there in collaboration with China and Russia. As Beijing builds a Sino-centric and unipolar Asia, and Russia aligns itself with China, Europe may have emerged as India’s natural partner in building a multipolar world.



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Sachchidanand Shukla writes: The uncertain global economic environment calls for proactive policy actions to boost exports

The year 2021 was a record one for trade despite the pandemic. In terms of volumes, merchandise trade rose 9.8 per cent, while in dollar terms, it grew 26 per cent. The value of commercial services trade was also up 15 per cent. India has had a good export run in line with global trends, witnessing record goods exports of $419 billion, while touching $250 billion in services exports.

However, global growth forecasts have now been pared down. World merchandise trade volume is expected to grow at 3 per cent in 2022 (down from 4.7 per cent previously) and 3.4 per cent in 2023 according to the WTO. Note, world merchandise trade volume grew at twice the rate of world GDP at market exchange rates in the two decades before the global financial crisis. However, this ratio between trade and GDP growth will fall to 1.1:1 in 2022 and 2023. Thus, slower global growth, an adverse geopolitical environment, the shadow of recurring waves of the pandemic and prolonged supply chain issues are likely to weigh on export growth this year.

This uncertain global economic environment calls for proactive policy actions as exporters look to tap into newer opportunities. Ukraine and Sri Lanka are major exporters of agricultural products and the vacuum created by their limited presence in global trade will open up agricultural export opportunities for India. This will not only spur overall exports but will also help to support the recovery of the agrarian economy through higher realisations. Apart from Europe, Africa’s food security depends on wheat supplies from the two countries at war. As many as 25 African countries import more than one-third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and for 15 of them, the share exceeds 50 per cent. Sri Lanka is also a major player in the global tea market and produces around 300 million kg annually. Almost 98 per cent of its annual production is exported. India, the second-largest producer of tea with an annual production of 900 million kg, is in a good position to exploit the opportunity and fill the gap.

Apart from tea and wheat, newer export opportunities have arisen for textiles. Sri Lanka exports $5.42 billion worth of garments and prolonged power cuts in the island nation will hurt its production and export capacity. Major global brands such as Zara and H&M have been reportedly looking towards India since other Asian exporters like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia lack the capacity to fill the void and Chinese factories are locked up due to a Covid surge.

If India were to tap export opportunities in developed markets, it must do the following. One, work on non-tariff barriers for agricultural trade with a special focus on harmonising the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements. SPS barriers can be addressed in various ways including through scientific collaborations for the implementation of sector-specific measures and strengthening the traceability system in supply chains. Two, to support tea exports, traditional tea boards are seeking a greater role and autonomy for optimising the development, promotion, and research in the sector. Quicker implementation of the proposed Tea Promotion and Development Act is of utmost importance.

Three, India must double down on its integration with global supply chains. The commerce ministry has negotiated a slew of trade deals. This holds the promise of a new pro-trade policy, but India must become a part of the bigger trade pacts and regions. Four, tariff rates for intermediate inputs should be reduced to either zero or should be negligible for India to become an attractive location for assembly activities. Five, India must persist with the creation of an enabling ecosystem that realigns its specialisation patterns towards labour-intensive processes and product lines. The labour market reforms must be taken to their logical conclusion. Six, a continuous and pro-active FDI policy is also critical as foreign capital and technology are key enablers for entry into global production networks even as local firms play a role as subcontractors and suppliers of intermediate inputs to MNEs.

Lastly, exports could suffer if basic issues such as availability of power and logistical bottlenecks keep rearing their ugly heads. Note, for instance, the huge quantity of coal that awaits evacuation and transportation to power plants operating with low stocks from sheds or washery heads.The Economic Survey 2019 had recommended that low levels of service link costs (costs related to transportation, communication, and other tasks involved in coordinating the activity etc) are prerequisites to strengthen their participation in GVCs. This should not be neglected.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 6, 2022, under the title ‘Seize the trade moment’. The writer is Group chief economist, Mahindra & Mahindra. With inputs from Sarbartho Mukherjee, Associate Economist, M&M). Views are personal



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M Govinda Rao writes: Existing rate structure needs to be rationalised. There should be only two rates

The introduction of the value-added tax (VAT) has been perhaps the most important tax reform seen across countries in the last three decades. As of 2018, as many as 166 out of the 193 countries that are members of the UN had implemented the VAT in one form or another. In India, it has been a remarkable achievement and a unique experiment in cooperative federalism. In this, both the Union and the state governments gave up their tax autonomy in favour of harmonising domestic trade taxes. The objective of the reform was to simplify the indirect tax system, make the system competitive by reducing cascading effects and increase revenue productivity. Building a consensus to implement GST by combining 11 different domestic indirect taxes levied by the Centre, states and Union territories with legislatures took considerable time and involved several compromises in the structure and operational details. Not surprisingly, some bad features entered into the structure of the tax to get it accepted. It has now become extremely difficult to remove them.

One of the most important shortcomings in the structure of GST is multiple rates. The committee headed by the Chief Economic Adviser estimated the tax rate at 15-15.5 per cent. It further recommended that in keeping with growing international practice, India should strive towards a single rate in the medium-term to facilitate administrative simplicity and compliance, but in the immediate context, it should have a three-tier structure (excluding zero), comprising of a lower rate of 12 per cent, a standard rate varying between 17 to 18 per cent and a very high rate of 40 per cent on “demerit” goods. The structure finally adopted was to have four rates of 5, 12, 18, and 28 per cent besides zero, though almost 75 per cent of the revenues accrue from the 12 and 18 per cent slabs.

Also from Express Opinion |India must seize the trade opportunity opening now

The reasons for adopting a single rate structure in most countries are to have a simple tax system, prevent misclassifications and litigations arising therefrom, and to avoid an inverted duty structure of taxes on inputs exceeding those on outputs requiring detailed scrutiny and refunds. In India, items like electrical transformers, railway wagons, some textile products, plastic bags, and solar modules are examples that have inverted duty structures. The main reason for rate differentiation is equity. But it is argued that this is an inefficient way of targeting benefits for the poor. Although the exempted and low-rated items are consumed relatively more by the poor, in absolute terms, the consumption may be more by the rich. Furthermore, the ideal way of targeting the benefits to the poor is on the expenditure side, through targeted cash transfers to vulnerable groups and providing quality education and healthcare. Of course, unprocessed food items have to be exempted for reasons of administrative difficulty, but the list should be kept small. The rate structure that has been adopted in India is chaotic and in need of urgent reform.

Now, in fact, is the opportune time to rationalise the rate structure. The economy is in recovery mode and more importantly, GST revenues have shown reasonably high buoyancy with collections of over Rs 1 lakh crore in the last 10 months and touching a record of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022. What is important is that the revenue increase has not come about only due to the economic recovery. The more important reason seems to be that at last, the GSTN has been able to stabilise the technology platform. Mandating the issue of e-invoicing for all businesses above Rs 100 crore has enabled better invoice matching and detection of fake invoices that were used to claim the input tax credit. This has helped to improve tax compliance and has also enabled better enforcement. With time, the GSTN should be able to enforce e-invoice requirements on all businesses above Rs 10 crore, which will cover more than 95 per cent of taxpayers. With this development, we can expect high revenue buoyancy, which should provide sufficient compulsion to comply with the tax.

Of course, the GST council is concerned about the problems arising from excessive rate differentiation and has set up a seven-member ministerial panel chaired by the chief minister of Karnataka. The panel’s report is awaited. But it has been widely reported that the committee is thinking of increasing the lower tax rate from 5 per cent to 8 per cent and moving some essential items from the 5 per cent category to the 3 per cent slab. This will be retrograde because a rate category will be added. The need of the hour is to reduce the rate categories.

Ideally, it would be desirable to have a single rate of tax besides exemptions on unprocessed food items. That will avoid not only the problems arising from multiple tax rates but also put an end to lobbying by manufacturers for placing their products in the low tax rate category. However, moving over to a single rate structure may not be implementable at this stage due to political economy considerations. It would be preferable to merge the 12 per cent and 18 per cent categories into a 15-16 per cent slab and move the items in the 5 per cent category to the 8 per cent slab and remove the 28 per cent category altogether. That will result in the GST structure with two rates and as the cesses will cease after 2026 when the compensation requirement is over, it will really become a “good and simple tax”.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 6, 2022, under the title ‘Make GST good and simple’. The writer is chief economic advisor, Brickwork Ratings. He was member, 14th Finance Commission and former director, NIPFP. Views are personal



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Sanjaya Baru writes: Even as Europe worries about Russia, and India worries about China, it is not clear what the two can do for each other, despite all the talk about partnership

After his meeting with Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1960, French President Charles de Gaulle famously declared, “the strength and stability of India are essential for peace and tranquillity in South Asia”. At a time when the United States was busy befriending Pakistan and showing little interest in investing in India, German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer decided to fund the establishment of the now world-famous Indian Institutes of Technology. The roots of India’s relations with these continental European powers go deep, however they have been shaped by the Cold War. It is, therefore, not surprising that the revival of old East-West tensions has cast a shadow on India’s relations with the European Union.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to European capitals should help both sides acquire a better understanding of each other’s security concerns. Whether it will fundamentally alter equations remains to be seen. As “Middle Powers”, countries like France, Germany and India should seek policy space for themselves and not be forced into taking positions by the Big Powers — the United States, China and Russia.

The EU is understandably concerned about Russian aggressiveness in Europe. India is equally concerned about Chinese aggressiveness in Asia. Will such shared concerns provide the basis for a new India-EU equation? Are EU leaders ready to widen de Gaulle’s frame and delete the word “south” from that sentence? The jury is out on that question despite all the hype and hoopla around Modi’s Europe yatra.

Even after Russia has sought to tear down the post-Cold War security structure in Europe, India has stayed the course in its equations both with Russia and the European Union. Both sides may be dissatisfied with India, but that has been India’s lot in the post-colonial era. India is not out to please anyone, it has and will continue to seek a global environment conducive to its own economic development and one that will acknowledge its civilisational contribution to humanity.

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the context in which Modi visited Europe and the head of the European Union visited India, the fact is that the agenda at bilateral meetings with individual European countries has generally been very different from the agenda that the EU prefers to focus on. While individual European nations, especially Germany and France, focus on their own strategic and business interests, including defence equipment sales, the EU retains the remit for negotiating trade and investment rules.

This division of national and group agendas has often posed a problem for India because individual countries cannot offer bilateral market access in exchange for bilateral defence deals. So, while Chancellor Scholz and President Macron were talking up their bilateral relations with India, the Dutch ambassador in India reminded his interlocutors that the EU is unlikely to settle for a “tariff-only” trade agreement that would avoid the policy bumps posed by EU insistence on inclusion of labour, environment and social issues stating, “We as Europeans think that you cannot isolate trade from some of the very relevant dimensions connected to trade.”

So the French will sell Rafale jets in the name of strategic partnership but they cannot offer a trade and investment deal that Brussels will not allow Paris to strike with India. After all, the Europeans constructed the EU to deal with external competition from rising Asia. In fact, the EU Single Market project was conceived as a defensive response to the rise of an aggressively export-oriented Japan. While the EU and G7 may now wish to derisk, if not decouple, from aggressively rising China, how much they would be able to do in this regard and what they would be willing to do to help a slowly rising India remains to be seen.

In short, even as Europe worries about Russia, and India worries about China, it is still not clear what the two can and would do for each other, despite all the talk about partnership across Eurasia and Indo-Pacific. If Prime Minister Modi’s meetings these past few days have given a better understanding on this then they would have served a purpose beyond the photo-ops.

For India’s part, it is not clear at the moment how much and what it can unilaterally offer Europe beyond the promise of standing up to China or reducing dependence on Russia. Surely that alone cannot be the foundation of a new strategic partnership unless Europe in turn is willing to expand de Gaulle’s perspective from just South Asia to Asia as a whole. That is the challenge for the three middle powers. Can they combine their “strength and stability” to ensure “peace and tranquillity” in their respective neighbourhoods? Or, will they continue to look over their shoulders at big powers lurking behind in seeking to stabilise and shape the global order?

If middle powers like Brazil, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa and others can work together they may well be able to impose some discipline on the three big powers — China, Russia and the US. By their irresponsible behaviour over the past decade all three big powers have opened up space for the middle powers to want to act. However, the latter can act only if they have the imagination and will to do so. Have Macron, Modi and Scholz even considered this possibility, or will they all remain within familiar grooves, allowing the big powers to recklessly and unilaterally set the global geopolitical and geo-economic agendas?

Tailpiece: Many in the media have dutifully interpreted Scholz’s invitation to Modi to the G7 summit in Germany as a special gesture. Fact is, India has been invited along with four other countries, including Indonesia and Senegal. More to the point, such invitations to G7 summits have come India’s way since 2003 when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the first PM to be so invited, along with counterparts from China, Brazil and South Africa. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh not only attended several G7 summits but also threatened not to attend one in Germany when Angela Merkel tried to reduce the time allotted for G7 interaction with guest country leaders.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 6, 2022, under the title ‘The middle power test’. The writer is a policy analyst



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Sanya Kumar and Rakshanda Deka write: Overturning the landmark abortion ruling in America will have implications for constitutional jurisprudence globally

The leak of an initial draft majority opinion of the US Supreme Court voting to overturn the decision in Roe v Wade has sent shockwaves across liberal and conservative quarters alike, globally. Written by Justice Samuel Alito, the draft decision seems to hold that “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start” and proposes to “heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives”, leaving it to the legislatures across states to criminalise or legalise abortion as they deem appropriate.

Roe, the 1973 outcome of an unmarried woman’s crusade for bodily autonomy, had declared overbroad, and consequently unconstitutional, a provision of the Texas Penal Code which permitted only those abortions that were “procured or attempted by medical advice to save the life of the mother”. The decision simultaneously recognised the state’s interest in protecting the life of the foetus as also the life of the mother. In devising a trimester framework for legally permissible abortions, Roe held that as the pregnancy progressed and the foetus became increasingly viable, the state’s interest in protecting potential life became compelling. Later, in 1992, the US Supreme Court in Planned Parenthood v Casey reaffirmed the woman’s right to terminate her pregnancy before viability as the “most central principle” of Roe. While locating the right of privacy within the guarantee of personal liberty enshrined in the fourteenth amendment of the American constitution, Roe embodies a supervening constitutional right to abortion emanating from this right of privacy.

The overturning of Roe is more than the mere abdication of the judicial responsibility to protect individual rights — it signals a dangerous trend of courts making long-standing determinations of legal rights based on transient political considerations. It would also mean legitimisation of state incursions into women’s right to abort and consequently their right to bodily autonomy and liberty, in addition to forcing them to move to states with enabling laws to procure abortions, leading to issues of access and affordability of abortions.

Roe is not only relevant as a progressive trailblazer for reproductive rights in the United States but is also fundamental to constitutional jurisprudence globally for the interpretative tools it employed. For instance, the US Supreme Court recognised that although there is no explicit mention of the right to privacy in the American constitution, it held that a guarantee of certain “zones of privacy” are found within the first and fourteenth Amendments. As such, the right to abort was held to be a constitutionally protected right within the right of privacy.

This approach finds reflection in the Indian Supreme Court’s decision in KS Puttaswamy v Union of India, where Justice Chandrachud referred to Roe and Planned Parenthood while reading the right to privacy into the existing framework of constitutionally protected fundamental rights subject to “just, reasonable and fair” restrictions. In the lifetime of the Indian Supreme Court, recognising derivative rights within the existing framework of fundamental rights has been regularly witnessed — be it rights during arrest and detention, the right to express one’s sexual and gender identity, or rights against harassment at the workplace, to cite a few.

While the impact of Roe’s absence would most profoundly be felt in the US, it is likely to embolden conservative anti-abortion voices across the world. It will inevitably also raise fundamental questions on the limits of judicial activism aimed at protecting the rights of persons and classes, which do not find explicit mention within a country’s constitutional framework. For instance, in the Indian context, the overturning could be seen as a setback to the celebrated doctrine of transformative constitutionalism, which sees the Indian Constitution as a “living document” that moulds, adapts and responds to changing times and circumstances. However, despite Roe arguably having been the genesis of the jurisprudence on a constitutional right to abortion, specifically the test of foetal “viability”, it is no longer the solitary basis of this guarantee in India. The Indian legal framework on reproductive rights has developed, both judicially and legislatively, in a manner that the overturning of the American locus classicus would not by itself warrant reconsideration of Indian laws on abortion.

In 2021, the abortion laws in India underwent substantial changes, with the introduction of the Medical Termination for Pregnancy (Amendment) Act, 2021 which, in addition to destigmatising pregnancies outside marriage by introducing the nomenclature of “any woman or her partner”, also increased the upper gestational limits within which pregnancies are legally terminable. The Act, however, carries ambiguities and leaves room for both judicial and executive interpretation and only permits the termination of pregnancy subject to the opinion of medical practitioner(s), which retains the patronising tenor of the law albeit with some progressive alterations. As cases of subjective determination arise, the Indian judiciary will be called upon to reconcile the right to privacy recognised in Puttaswamy with the permissible limits of abortion in the Act. The likelihood of the overturning of Roe leading to more conservative approaches to judicial interpretation in abortion rights cases, cannot be ruled out. However, with Puttaswamy crystalising the contours of the right to privacy, an optimistic view would suggest that abortion rights and questions of bodily autonomy would be determined within this very legal framework.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 6, 2022, under the title ‘Roe v Wade beyond the US’. The writers are advocates practicing in New Delhi



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Raghu Murtugudde writes: Indian Subcontinent is highly vulnerable to climate change and can become more resilient only with well-coordinated mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems

The record warm temperatures in April provide an example of how global warming can combine with natural variability to produce record heat waves. This spring portends yet again that higher frequency, duration, intensity and area covered by such heatwaves are expected in these regions with continued warming — not only locally but also because of the Indian Ocean and the Arctic.

Over the last few decades, Pakistan, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean have been hotspots for warming. Over the 1990-2020 period, this is well above 1 degree Celsius over this region while over India it is relatively lower. The heatwaves during the spring months, referred to as the pre-monsoon season over India, can be expected via the high-latitude planetary waves diving down into the Indian subcontinent along with the western disturbances. But the spring season has also become extreme now with excess rains and locust attacks, pre-monsoon cyclones, and severe pre-monsoon rainfall deficits. This year’s record-breaking heatwaves are part of this spectrum of extremes global warming can produce over this region.

Global warming is loading the dice as expected – from once in a decade, heatwaves are occurring about once in three years and once in 50-year events are occurring about once in a decade. The intensity and duration of the heatwaves have also trended up over South Asia and the areas covered by heat waves have increased substantially. The latest IPCC report assigns a high confidence to the detection of increasing extreme temperatures over South Asia.

The other hammer swinging over this region is the impact of a La Niña-like warming pattern, that is, a slower warming over the eastern tropical Pacific around the Galapagos compared to the relatively faster warming over the western Pacific around New Guinea and the Indonesian Seas. The unusual persistence of La Niña into the third consecutive year is expected in 2022, providing a clear example that the future is already here – natural variability and global warming combining to amplify natural hazards like heat waves over South Asia.

During a La Niña winter, a north-south pressure pattern sets up over India, which can funnel in bitterly cold temperatures far down into peninsular India unlike during an El Niño winter when the cold blast of air tends to be more confined to the north. The persistence of the La Niña pressure pattern into spring has been driving the unprecedented dust storm and heatwaves far south into the western coast of India. The much warmer than normal temperatures over Central Asia and Eastern Europe were associated with colder than normal temperatures over the Indian Subcontinent during December 2021 into February 2022 giving India a cold winter. But the surface temperatures flipped to a much warmer anomaly over the Indian Subcontinent extending into the Middle East and a cold anomaly over Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The associated low-pressure anomaly over the Indian Subcontinent has been inviting westerly winds and the blast of hot air from the Middle East into Pakistan and India. The La Niña pressure pattern has been splitting the hot air over the Arabian Sea south into western India and north into Pakistan and northern India. The record pre-monsoon rainfall deficits have accompanied the deadly heatwaves.

The bad news, of course, is that the La Niña-like pattern is expected to continue under global warming and may produce more such spring heatwaves. Additional amplification of the misery may come from excess pre-monsoon rainfalls with unusual hazards such as the locust attacks or agricultural and ecological droughts during the pre-monsoon.

The monsoon season may arrive on time and bring normal rains due to the expected continuation of the La Niña to cool much of India by July. Pakistan has to wait till the end of July to cool down. However, the North Indian Ocean has to pass through the pre-monsoon cyclone season before the monsoon. The number of cyclones and their rapid intensification are worrisome due to the weaker monsoon circulation associated with global warming.

Relentlessly warming temperatures over land and the Indian Ocean are combining with warming over the Arctic to produce decreasing rainfall over both India and Pakistan. The region is a poster child for all that can go wrong with global warming — floods, droughts, sea-level rise, heatwaves, extreme rainfall, and agricultural and ecological droughts. Negative health outcomes are expected in warm regions which favour the growth of human pathogens and wet seasons which spread diseases.

This geopolitically-sensitive region is highly vulnerable to climate change and can become more resilient only with well-coordinated mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems. The early heatwaves of spring 2022 will hopefully serve as another reminder of the need for cooperation on climate action in the region.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 6, 2022, under the title ‘Heat wave, red flag’. The writer is professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science at the University of Maryland and visiting faculty at Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay



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Vinod K Paul writes: The CRS report for 2020 is of special significance. It was the first year of the pandemic and there is interest in the estimates of the Covid-19-related death burden in this phase.

India has a robust system of documenting births and deaths under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 1969, through the Civil Registration System (CRS). It provides a unified process of continuous, permanent, compulsory, independent and universal recording of births and deaths.

Under the CRS, deaths are reported to the registrar of births and deaths of the concerned area for registration through around three lakh registration units nationwide. Although births and deaths are to be reported within 21 days of the occurrence of the event, the Act provides for late registrations as well. Every state generates a report within one year after the index calendar year. This leeway is given to accommodate late reporting and to collate data. Thus, the 2020 death data was reported by the states to the Centre up to December 31, 2021. Thereafter, the office of the Registrar General of India prepared the report for 2020 and released it on May 3.

Over the years, the civil registration system has matured, and with rising awareness and ownership, the registration of births and deaths has become more inclusive. Today, 85 per cent of births and deaths are registered online on the state or national portals. With time, the need for birth/death certificates has also risen, especially for the opening of bank accounts (particularly Jan Dhan accounts) and for property registration.

It may also be noted that each annual report also takes into account the estimated incremental increase in population compared to the preceding year, based on the census and growth rate, which leads to additional deaths being added.

The number of deaths reported through CRS is the actual count of registered deaths due to all the underlying causes. This would include natural deaths in the elderly, deaths due to TB infection, cancer, accidents, other systemic diseases, and so on. The count includes maternal, infant and child deaths. Stillbirths are also recorded. The report thus provides a holistic estimate of overall mortality. It, however, does not provide disaggregated cause-specific proportions by design.

The CRS report for 2020 is of special significance. It was the first year of the pandemic and there is interest in the estimates of the Covid-19-related death burden in this phase.

The 2020 CRS Reports estimate a total of 81,15,882 deaths in 2020. In 2019, the number of registered deaths was 76,41,076 deaths. Thus, compared to 2019, a total of 4,74,806 “extra” or excess deaths were reported in 2020. Since in 2019, there was no Covid-19, the excess death number in 2020 is surely, in part, due to the pandemic. However, all the excess deaths are not due to, and cannot be attributed to, Covid-19 alone. Based on the specially-developed Covid-19 reporting system of the Government of India, 2020 saw a total of 1,48,994 deaths due to Covid-19. It is possible that some additional deaths due to Covid-19 might not have been recorded in this system. But the CRS ensures that deaths from all causes are taken note of.

Before we go further, an important point needs to be made on the trends of reporting excess mortality under CRS year by year. It may be noted, for instance, that since 2016, there has been an increase in the number of deaths registered every year compared to the preceding years. In the year 2019, registered deaths were 76,41,076 compared to 69,50,607 deaths in 2018. Thus, a total of 6,90,469 more deaths were registered in 2019 compared to 2018. This trend is due to reasons such as increased registration activity and incremental increase in population size referred to above. It may also be noted that over the years, the death rate has declined with increasing life expectancy. Therefore, excess deaths can be recorded in the absence of a disease outbreak or any other unusual mortality pattern and, indeed, even in the face of a declining death rate.

An attempt to equate all excess deaths in 2020 to Covid-19 is untenable. The excess volume of 4,74,806 deaths should be seen as the total envelope of deaths within which lies a subset of Covid-19 deaths. In other words, no matter how we count Covid-19 deaths, the exorbitantly high estimate over and above the officially reported number is out of the question.

As per Worldometer, a publicly available database, overall Covid deaths in India have been 373 per million, which is less than half of the world average of 804. The estimates (deaths per million population) for the US (3,052), UK (2,552), France (2,230), Sweden (1,835), Germany (1,613) and Canada (1,025) are much higher. Even after adjustments are made in the reported death estimates by using CRS numbers, India will, in every likelihood, stand tall as a nation that succeeded in keeping the Covid mortality low compared to other nations.

From time to time, academics and agencies have provided modelling-based estimates of Covid-19 deaths in India. For instance, an article in The Lancet estimated that the Covid-19 death count in India is more than eight times the official count. The CRS data rules out such a high multiple for Covid deaths in 2020, given that the all-cause excess deaths documented in CRS are well under five lakhs.

Estimates based on modelling use assumptions that may not necessarily be accurate for application in the diverse subcontinent that our nation is. Unfortunately, such estimates attract media attention and lead to sensational claims that often are far from true. The time has come for the refinement of our understanding of the impact of Covid-19 in India, which should be based on actual numbers provided by CRS.

This report serves a useful purpose in paving the way for clearing the air around the magnitude of pandemic-triggered mortality. It also reposes faith, yet again, in the comprehensive and effective pandemic response effort marshalled by the states and the Centre and, above all, by the people of India.

This column first appeared in the print edition on May 5, 2022, under the title ‘The dead have been counted’. The writer is member (Health), NITI Aayog. Views are personal



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Wheat, the world’s most important source of food calories, is currently the focal point of anxiety about food inflation. The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook has forecast that wheat prices this year will increase over 40%, hitting a record high in nominal terms. India, despite its large stockpile of wheat, has already begun to feel the effect. GoI expects to procure about 19.5 million tonnes of wheat in the ongoing exercise, less than half of what was initially forecast. This dip in procurement is disproportionately large, as wheat production is expected to fall only 6% in relation to last year.

Global wheat prices are surging on the heels of drought in parts of North America and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After a few years where India’s market prices were largely in line with GoI’s MSP, or lower, the trend has reversed. Procurement has dropped because traders are offering farmers rates higher than MSP in anticipation of wheat prices rising in the future. GoI in turn is preparing for the season ahead by calibrating the release of its wheat stock. The first step has been to switch to extra rice in place of wheat, in its cereal allocation to 11 states.

The risk going forward is that the wheat price trend will spill over to other crops. This can happen on account of input substitution – because fertiliser, land etc to an extent can be used across crops. Input substitutability in agriculture often results in co-movement of prices in some commodities such as edible oil as farmers switch in response to price signals. The next sowing season for wheat will begin around November when market price is expected to be high. It could nudge farmers to reallocate land from other crops to wheat, which will put upward pressure on the price of those crops.

Area allocated to wheat has been around 30-32 million hectares in the last few years, representing about 56% of the area under food grains in the rabi season. The other key crops in terms of land allocation are gram and coarse cereals. Given the dominance of wheat in the rabi land use, even small shifts can have a big price effect on other crops. India has a sizeable international trade in agricultural commodities. Therefore, domestic prices in November will also be influenced through the trade channel. Against this backdrop, a well-judged release of GoI’s wheat stockpile must play an important role in dampening food inflation this year.



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The gazette notification of the much-awaited final delimitation order for Jammu & Kashmir brings to an end a two-year-long exercise and clears a major hurdle in restoring normalcy in the region. After all, delimitation was a prerequisite for holding assembly elections in J&K following the nullification of Article 370 and the creation of a new Union territory. Towards that end, the delimitation commission has taken a sensible approach and viewed J&K as one unit. This should put to rest long-held complaints that the Valley wielded disproportionate power in the erstwhile political arrangement of the region.

Accordingly, the final delimitation order has increased the number of assembly constituencies in the Jammu region from 37 to 43 seats, while the Kashmir region will see its seat count go up by one to 47. Plus, for the very first time, nine assembly constituencies have been reserved for STs out of which six will be in the Jammu region and three in the Valley. Continuing with the unitary approach, the commission has also carved out a parliamentary constituency combining Anantnag region in the Valley with Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu. This will allow each parliamentary constituency in J&K to have an equal number of 18 assembly seats and do away with the previous region-wise division of Lok Sabha seats.

These changes should be acceptable to most political groups in J&K. What’s needed now is their fair participation in assembly polls that will restore full democratic processes in the UT. In fact, holding these polls along with the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat elections later this year is now feasible. Of course the fructification of various development promises by the Centre is also tied to residents of the region feeling like stakeholders in this development. Once they vote again and political normalcy returns, this should allow for the restoration of their statehood next.



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While in many other democracies, all efforts would have been made to bludgeon the 'leaker' and, thereby, make the act of the leak of a Supreme Court deliberation the real 'offence', America seems to prioritise the truth - at least in this case, the in-camera deliberations that may lead to a pivotal law being overturned.

The US has been rocked by the possibility of the Supreme Court deciding to make abortion illegal in individual states. This, if the decision due in June-July does match its leaked deliberations, will overturn the landmark 1973 Roe vs Wade ruling, thereby denying millions of American women control over their own body. But the leak published in Politico - since verified as authentic by the chief justice - has itself created a ruckus leading to an investigation. What is telling, however, is that outrage over the contents of the leak has not been hijacked by outrage of the act of the leak itself. Dissemination of information, however unpalatable but not illegally obtained, trumps over procedure.

While in many other democracies, all efforts would have been made to bludgeon the 'leaker' and, thereby, make the act of the leak of a Supreme Court deliberation the real 'offence', America seems to prioritise the truth - at least in this case, the in-camera deliberations that may lead to a pivotal law being overturned. This, ironically, is not the first leak involving Roe vs Wade. The Washington Post had first published a story of the internal deliberations of the still-undeclared original ruling that came via a leak. Time magazine published the final decision and vote rulings some hours before the actual ruling - owing to a delay in the judgment - that was brought to light by a Supreme Court clerk. Action was sought to be taken against the clerk as well as Time. But decriminalising abortion swept any outrage against the 'travesty' of leaks to the press firmly aside.

That maturity is being repeated today. Whatever be the final verdict on the matter, the reaction to the latest leak certainly reflects a democracy that knows its wood from the trees.

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The government is expecting technology stacks built on 5G cellular services, public digital platforms, semiconductor designing and electronics manufacturing to yield a new generation of unicorns. This could yield a multicorn forest.

Earlier this week, India counted its 100th unicorn with Open Financial Technologies raising $50 million in a funding round that values the neobanking platform at $1 billion. The important milestone has arrived 11 years after India produced its first unicorn. The pace of creating winning startups that draw big interest from venture capital (VC), however, is speeding up. In 2021, 44 unicorns were created in the world's third-largest startup ecosystem. Over half of India's unicorns have achieved this feat in under five years, and there are projections India could have 250 of them by 2025. The current list of unicorns, including those that have reached valuations of $1 billion before slipping off the perch, is thought to have raised $90 billion and have a combined valuation of $333 billion.

Yet, profits are hard to come by, and, when they do, they travel abroad. Less than one in four of India's unicorns has been profitable for any given financial year. Scorching growth with a convergence to the path to profitability is incredibly difficult to achieve. A fair number of the dozen-odd technology listings last year have seen investors dumping the stocks over profitability concerns. This brings out the difference in how the stock market and VC value startups where traditional metrics may not provide a true picture of the disruptive potential of these companies.

Then there is the ecosystem. One in five of the startups that have reached unicorn status is incorporated in business-friendly jurisdictions abroad. Last year's crop of 44 has five with headquarters overseas. Taxes on cryptocurrencies could cause a further exodus of startups working on Web 3.0, the next avatar of a decentralised internet using blockchain. India's evolving approach to privacy protection could affect decisions to incorporate at home. The government is expecting technology stacks built on 5G cellular services, public digital platforms, semiconductor designing and electronics manufacturing to yield a new generation of unicorns. This could yield a multicorn forest.

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India has a sanctioned strength of more than 24,000 judges in the district judiciary but only 20,000-odd courtrooms, including 620 rented halls. A report compiled by the Supreme Court (SC) registry on what ails the 3,028 court complexes in the country threw up disconcerting statistics: 26% did not have separate washrooms for women, 46% didn’t have purified drinking water; 95% didn’t have basic medical facilities; 67% were not disabled-friendly; 49% didn’t have libraries, and 73% didn’t have computers on judges’ dais with video-conferencing facility.

The figures are undeniably startling for a country with 40 million cases choking the system at the district level. The first encounter of a common man with the judiciary poses multiple barriers in terms of court procedure, and the decrepit infrastructure only compounds the hardship. To strengthen the justice delivery mechanism, the SC, headed by Chief Justice of India (CJI) NV Ramana, recently proposed a National Judicial Infrastructure Authority (NJIA). NJIA was envisaged as an umbrella body to move from ad-hoc committees to a more streamlined, accountable and organised structure. The proposal considered an enactment on the lines of the National Legal Services Authority (NALSA) so that the funds allocated by the Centre and states for infrastructure could be utilised through special purpose vehicles. CJI Ramana also wrote a letter to Union law minister Kiren Rijiju in January, clarifying that the proposed structure would not only have judges but also representatives from the department of justice, finance ministry, national informatics council and central public works department. But the government’s indisposition and unwillingness to the proposal were finally conveyed to the CJI during the joint conference of chief ministers and high court chief justices last week when Mr Rijiju turned down the proposal. According to people aware of the matter, the Centre did not specify reasons for its resistance but remained firm that the existing system should continue, letting the executive take care of judicial infrastructure.

This development is unfortunate, considering the dismal state of affairs and the glaring fact that the existing apparatus has evidently proved to be grossly deficient in fulfilling the need of the justice delivery mechanism and the aspirations of the people who visit the courts. The Centre’s rejection came hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised all support to the judiciary. According to a 2018 study , failure to deliver timely justice costs the country 9% of the annual GDP. Given the dismal state of affairs, the government would do well in shedding its apprehensions, and commence a dialogue afresh on NJIA to arrive at a mutually agreeable mechanism that can give India a state-of-the-art judicial infrastructure -- a much-awaited and desired reform.



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On April 18, United States (US) vice-president, Kamala Harris, announced a national, unilateral moratorium on “destructive, direct-ascent anti-satellite [ASAT] missile testing”. Harris added that the US aims to establish “a new international norm for responsible behaviour in space,” which would “benefit all nations”. Setting a norm takes time and requires the participation of several prominent actors. When China and Russia are firmly in the opposite bloc, it will be a big surprise if either of those two cooperates with the US in establishing a norm. In effect, the US is restraining only its own behaviour, even as its two major adversaries can continue to test direct-ascent ASAT missiles (allowed in international law).

Why would the US restrain itself and allow its adversaries to continue developing and perfecting a technology that can bring military advantages? Because it is in the US national interest to do so. There are four reasons why the US has little to gain by testing direct-ascent ASAT capabilities and much to benefit from a freeze in space capabilities of every country where they currently are.

First, the US is the world leader in space-based military capabilities. It relies heavily on its satellites for intelligence collection, reconnaissance, communication, targeting, navigation, and early warning of threats. Its space-based reconnaissance capabilities allow the US to track an adversary’s nuclear arsenal, including hardened mobile missile shelters. If it can follow all land-based missile shelters, it can also eliminate them with accurate missiles. Not just nuclear counterforce, space capabilities provide the US with an immense advantage in conventional warfare. It is for this reason that America’s space assets are variously called its military’s “sensory organs,” “Achilles’ heel,” “soft ribs,” and “juiciest targets”. Therefore, it makes sense for America’s adversaries to develop counter-space capabilities that could eliminate US military satellites to correct their military disadvantage. Direct-ascent ASAT missiles are the best-known tools to achieve that. If the US can enforce a norm against these missiles, it hopes that it will be able to arrest its adversaries from further developing and perfecting weapons that could harm its military’s eyes and ears.

Second, the US already has a well-developed capability to hit satellites. The direct-ascent ASAT technology has a lot of overlapping components with missile defence technologies. The US’s ground- and sea-based missile defence systems can be employed as ASAT weapons. While the US claims that its missile defence systems are meant to protect against long-range missiles that could be launched by rogue threats like North Korea or Iran, those assurances have not satisfied Russia and China.

Moscow and Beijing have, therefore, continued to invest in numbers, processes and technologies to beat American missile defence capabilities, which they suspect to grow bigger and more powerful with time. Since the same missile defence capabilities, which the US won’t give up, citing the threat from Pyongyang and Tehran, have latent ASAT capabilities, the US is not losing much by a unilateral moratorium on direct-ascent ASAT testing.

Third, the US has no option other than to go alone because of the nature of ASAT technology. As stated earlier, the US is already a military leader in space, whereas Russia and China have either to catch up or find ways to asymmetrically neutralise America’s advantage. This is different from 1968, when the US and erstwhile Soviet Union could simultaneously sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The crucial difference between nuclear and counter-space weapons is the former are weapons of deterrence while the latter are weapons of war-fighting. Once two nuclear weapons States have second-strike capability, they can deter major attacks from each other. ASAT weapons do not confer the same stability. Two States can destroy each other’s satellites to achieve battlefield advantage and be less worried that it will directly escalate to existential proportions.

On the other hand, when nuclear weapons are contemplated, one quickly begins to imagine scenarios in which States face unacceptable damage to their lives and property. In other words, unlike weapons of deterrence, war-fighting weapons do not automatically lead to mutual deterrence and stability. Hence, just because two States have demonstrated the capability to shoot down satellites does not mean that both will now have incentives to cooperate and not find ways to outwit each other.

Fourth, the US is not just a leader in military applications of space but also in its economic ones. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists Satellite Database, out of 4,852 operating satellites as of January 1, the number of US satellites stands at 2,944.

In contrast, China has 499 and Russia has 169 satellites in space. Out of those 2,944 from the US, only 230 are classified as military satellites. As a State deeply invested in non-military use of space, it is in the interest of the US to keep space free of debris, which poses direct harm to the commercial and scientific exploitation of space.

The debris is harmful to astronauts too. Direct-ascent ASAT tests generate debris, and some tests generate more debris than others. For example, the debris generated by Russia’s test in 2021, conducted at 480 kilometres, is not just more in number but would remain in space for a longer period than India’s 2019 test, conducted at a lower altitude of 282 kilometres. Therefore, a cessation in such debris-generating tests would provide the US with disproportionate benefits not just in the military realm but also in the economic one.

Kunal Singh is a PhD candidate (Security Studies Program), Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The views expressed are personal



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In the fortnight preceding Eid, the Indian Army dealt with a social media assault on its pluralistic ethos in a deft manner after an initial fumble. To recapitulate briefly — the Defence public relations officer (PRO) in Jammu put out a tweet in late-April about an iftar party that the local formation had held; this was a routine matter that would have been of interest, at best, to the local community. However, this innocuous tweet by the Army rep led to an offensive remark by a TV anchor known for his anti-Muslim orientation and hate-speech diatribes, wherein the latter sarcastically queried (April 21) on Twitter: “Ab yeh bimari bharaatiya sena may bhi ghus gayaa hai ? Dukhad [Has this sickness intruded into the Indian Army also? Sad]”

This choice of words and the turn of phrase is deplorable and insulting, and it is a sign of the times that this anti-Muslim slur was liked by more than 10,000 users, and also retweeted. In an inexplicable response, the tweet by the Defence PRO was deleted and this may have emboldened the anti-iftar brigade to claim victory over the socio-religious ethos of the fauj and testified to the pernicious trend that social media can trigger — more so when it is supported by trolls.

Many military veterans and concerned citizens were outraged at the turn of events and this was expressed in private groups and social media platforms. To its credit, the Army moved deftly and a few days later (April 25) there was a picture of Lieutenant General (Lt Gen) DP Pandey, Corps Commander 15 Corps in Srinagar, offering namaz that was shared on Twitter and the message was clear and confident. In a subtle manner, the Army demonstrated its commitment to the tradition of pluralism and respecting all faiths.

The Indian military does not differentiate on the basis of religion and the principle that is adhered to is that an Army officer adopts the faith of his troops. And, where there are mixed units with personnel drawn from the major faiths of the subcontinent, all of them are accorded the same sanctity.

Religious beliefs are important for the soldier and the Indian tradition of nurturing this faith in the divine is hoary. In the last millennium, with the arrival of new faiths — Islam, Sikhism and Christianity — despite the battles and wars that ravaged the subcontinent, rulers kept their armies mixed and the best known example in north India is that of the Sikh ruler, Maharaja Ranjit Singh (1780–1839), who had Hindu, Muslim and Christian commanders in his army.

During the colonial period, the British were also cognisant of respecting the faith of the Indian soldier and the essential pluralism of faiths was nurtured in an empathetic manner. Post 1947, the Indian Army acquired its religious equipoise and units or regimental centres had their mandir-masjid-gurudwara (MMG) and churches — often located in proximity — as dictated by the composition of the troops. Religious teachers of each faith are inducted into the Army and are part of the paltan and there are numerous inspiring tales of the Hindu pandit, Muslim maulvi and Sikh granthi leading the prayers of another faith if such an exigency arose, which was not uncommon. In short, the principle of sarv dharam samaan — or all faiths are the same — was internalised and became the DNA of the Indian military.

This ethos of nurturing pluralism has evolved over the decades in the Army and in the early 1980s, the concept of a sarv dharam sthal (SDS) — or one venue housing all the places of worship — gradually took root. This initiative was mooted by Lt Gen ML Chibber, a former Northern army commander, and the JAK LI (Jammu and Kashmir Light Infantry) centre near Srinagar has the distinction of creating the first such common religious venue.

Whether MMG or SDS, the abiding ethos of the Army is to respect all faiths while the soldier remains steadfast to naam-namak-nishan — or regimental honour and loyalty to country and flag. One of the foundational principles for any military is the use of force to defend nation and sovereignty — and killing the adversary, if need be — has to be mediated through the prism of duty, legitimacy and rectitude. Absent this underpinning, there is little to distinguish the soldier from a mercenary and this frame of reference has to be guarded zealously.

The professionalism, pluralistic ethos and apolitical nature of the Indian Army are widely recognised and self-correction is swift where there has been a transgression. It remains the last instrument of the State when there is a challenge to national sovereignty or internal stability, and it has always risen to the occasion — often at heavy cost.

Maintaining this institutional ozone layer that insulates the military from the domestic political churn is imperative to sustain the normative rhythms of a vibrant democracy and the United States experience of January 2021 is sobering. In this context it is deeply disturbing that no political leader, including retired Army officers who are part of the Bharatiya Janata Party, chose to push back against this shameful assault on the pluralistic ethos of the Army. This bodes ill for the country.

Commodore (retired) C Uday Bhaskar is director, Society for Policy StudiesThe views expressed are personal



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Almost two years after the custodial killing of Jayaraj and Bennix in Tamil Nadu, recent custodial deaths in the state have yet again brought attention to the endemic violence in police custody. As per the National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB), 998 people died in custody in India between 2011 and 2020.

While the legal framework exists to prevent custodial violence and bring accountability, there are inadequacies and limitations both in the law and in its implementation. More than 25 years since India signed the UN Convention against Torture, it is yet to ratify the convention. While the Supreme Court (SC) has outlawed torture, in the absence of a domestic anti-torture legislation, it is difficult to prosecute perpetrators of torture. Further, the gaps in the implementation of constitutional and statutory safeguards for an arrestee — the right to legal representation, right to medical examination, right against self-incrimination, duty of the police to inform the family, production in front of a magistrate within 24 hours of arrest — make persons in police custody more vulnerable to violence.

Beyond these legal safeguards, various bodies have flagged shortages in the police, long working shifts and its psychological impact on their functioning; lack of training and orientation of police personnel; inadequate capacity of forensic infrastructure, and political pressure to quickly “solve” cases as contributing factors.

Systemic issues need redressal, but without acknowledging and addressing the culture of impunity and the lack of accountability, custodial violence will not abate. The limitations and inadequacies of the law coupled with illegal practices allow the police to perpetrate violence and evade consequence.

One of the biggest challenges in custodial violence cases is lack of evidence. This is because police officers do not come forward as witnesses against their own. To address this, the Law Commission recommended reversing the burden of proof in custodial violence cases — presume that the death or injury was caused by the officer having custody and make it the burden of the police to disprove this. Almost four decades since this recommendation, the burden of proof remains with the prosecution. A recent SC judgment mandated the installation of CCTVs in police stations. This has the potential to deter violations in police custody and also record violence, if perpetrated.

Another critical aspect in making the police accountable for torture is accurate documentation of the injury marks of the arrestee. While the law mandates a medical examination of the accused immediately after arrest, and every 48 hours while in custody, medical reports often do not reflect the true physical condition of the arrestee. This can be attributed to the incompetence of medical professionals in detecting torture marks and the fear to document evidence against the police.

Custodial violence is the consequence of unbridled power at the hands of the police. Unless magistrates ensure all constitutional and statutory safeguards are actualised, oversight bodies such as the police complaint authorities and human rights commissions show the tenacity to conduct effective inquiries, and judicial enquires post death are conducted scrupulously as per procedure, the police will continue to get away with murder.

Raja Bagga teaches law at Jindal Global Law School The views expressed are personal



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The winds of change have begun to blow in Telangana and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's visit to Warangal on May 6 will mark the beginning of a new mission in the state. Fed up and frustrated with the autocratic and inhuman rule of Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao, people are looking towards Congress for releasing the newly formed Telangana from the iron fists of KCR and his family. 7500 farmers suicides in less than eight years - this sums up the state of TRS party's governance in a state, which was formed with the sacrifices of students and youth, who laid down their lives for a better life for the future generations. TRS boss KCR has turned Telangana, which was formed after a historical movement, in which people from all sections participated, into his private fiefdom. KCR has betrayed each and every section of Telangana in his eight year rule so far. But how many more days will this 'cheating' and 'looting' go on? Rahul Gandhi's Rythu Sangarshana Sabha to be held in Warangal is going to be the beginning of end of dictator KCR, who has turned democracy into kleptocracy.

Besides turning a blind eye to farmers suicides, KCR has betrayed farmers at every stage. From failing to waive crop loans, botching up paddy procurement issue to neglecting tenant farmers and inability to offer Minimum Support Price (MSP) for alternate crops, KCR has caused severe distress to farmers in every issue. Now he is trying to use the same farmers as pawns in his political game and trying to get back to power once again.

 

Fake Deekshas in Delhi in the name of farmers:

TRS chief KCR, who has been supporting PM Modi's Sarkar in every issue has staged a fake Deeksha (protest) alleging that Centre is not procuring paddy. Right from President's election to the anti-farmer farm laws, TRS supported BJP in every issue and acted as its B-Team. But to divert Telangana people from TRS Govt's failures, KCR has come up with a new ploy. He is trying to present himself as a champion of farmers, while the truth is exactly the opposite. What's ironical is, KCR, who had never cared about farmers protests against Centre' Farm Laws, sought help of farmers leader Rakesh Tikait, while enacted protest drama in national capital.

 

KCR, himself had submitted a letter to the Food Corporation of India(FCI) in August 2021 without consulting anyone, stating that Telangana would not give the boiled rice. Later he threatened Telangana farmers through IAS officers not to cultivate paddy. He even went to the extent of saying that farmers who sow paddy will be hanged. Now the same KCR has staged a fake Deeksha in Delhi alleging that Centre is not procuring paddy. If KCR is sincere towards farmers, why did not he do Deekha while the Parliament was in session? Why did not TRS MPs raise paddy purchase issue in the Parliament? By using farmers as pawns, KCR is trying to plunder Telangana again. The fake Deeksha conducted in Delhi is a part of this conspiracy.

 

KCR's flip-flop costs farmers dearly:

KCR has initially asked farmers not to cultivate paddy in the name of controlled farming and even warned of booking cases on farmers who cultivated paddy. However he had cultivated paddy in 100 acres at his farm house in Erravelli during Rabi season.
Following his words, thousands of farmers have not cultivated their lands. Later fooling the farmers who respected his words, KCR announced that Telangana Govt would purchase paddy by setting up paddy procurement centres. Then who will compensate the farmers who listened to KCR’s words?

 

To present himself as a champion of farmers KCR held a fake Deeksha in Delhi and later announced that Telangana Govt itself will procure paddy. It is very unfortunate that KCR is playing with the livelihoods of farmers for cheap political gains. TRS Government should immediately purchase each grain of paddy and also pay a compensation of Rs 15000 per acre for farmers who did not cultivate their lands on KCR's words.

Farmers who sold off Paddy at lower prices should be Compensated:

About 30 to 40 percent of the paddy farmers had already sold off their paddy directly to the rice millers at lower prices by the time KCR announced that the state government would procure paddy. They incurred a loss of at least three to four crore thousands of rupees. Who will compensate for the losses of these farmers? If KCR is sincere to help the poor farmers, he should offer Rs 500 per quintal additionally on the paddy already sold off by the farmers.

 

Union Minister G Kishan Reddy said that Telangana had procured four lakh tonnes of rice in the last two Kharif seasons but so far not handed over the rice to the FCI. If these words are true, into whose pockets has this rice gone? In which black market was it sold? Centre must conduct a CBI probe into this issue.

Lack of MSP for the Alternate Crops aggravates farmers problems:

As CM KCR directed not to sow paddy, farmers cultivated alternate crops like bengal gram, peanuts, pigeon pea and other crops in about 10 lakh acres in the Telangana. But they suffered losses as they sold produce at lower prices, as government did not offer any MSP. If KCR Govt is really committed towards encouraging alternate crops, it should fix MSP for all these crops and procure them directly from the farmers at MSP.

 

KCR betrayed farmers on crop loan waiver promise:

When it first came to power TRS Govt waived crop loans in six instalments. The waiver benefits were not even equal to interest of the loans. KCR came back to power by promising, he would waive farm loans up to Rs one lakh at one go during the election campaign in 2018. KCR got the votes of farmers but failed to waive the farm loans causing much distress to the poor farmers. While the farmers took Rs 25,936 Cr loans, the Govt allocated Rs 20,389 Cr and waived off just Rs 1098 Cr so far. As the farmers waited for the waiver believing KCR's promise, the interest rate had doubled on the loans, increasing their burden further.

 

In the past there was a discount on the interest rate on the crop loan, but both the Central and State governments have not extended the discount on interest for the last eight years. As the farmers are unable to get the fresh loans, they are forced to go to private money lenders and get the loans at high interest rates.

Crop Insurance Schemes Come to a Halt:

During Congress rule, if the farmers paid premium for the crop insurance, they used to get the compensation in case of crop loss. But the BJP after coming to power at the Centre allowed private insurance companies into the crop insurance space. Because of this, farmers have been facing huge problems. According to a CAG report, the insurance companies earned Rs 26,000 Cr profit in crop insurance. In 2020, both the Centre and State stopped crop insurance schemes from the Kharif season. the KCR’s government did not pay premiums in 2018 and 2019 for two years. Thus the crop insurance schemes have become defunct leaving farmers future in uncertainty.

 

No Compensation for the Crop Loss caused by Natural Calamities:

KCR Sarkar has not even paid compensation since 2014 though the farmers suffered losses due to natural calamities. The government distributed Rs 10,000 to each family during the floods in Hyderabad in view of the GHMC elections. But it is not paying compensation to the farmers.  It is not even assessing the crop loss caused by natural calamities. Responding to a PIL, the High Court ordered the State government to pay compensation to the farmers who incurred losses due to calamities. But the government instead of paying the compensation went to the Apex court for an appeal against the judgment. Given this, we can understand the love of the government towards farmers.

 

Warangal : A glaring example of TRS Govt's apathy towards farmers

Owing to heavy rains recently, crops in the erstwhile Warangal district were damaged severely. Following this, a team of Ministers visited the damaged crops, but the farmers are yet to get the compensation. As the chilli crop was damaged due to pests and insects, 50 farmers committed suicide as they incurred huge losses and burdened by loans. This year, the yield of the cotton and other crops has drastically fallen down. But the government is not extending any help to the farmers.

 

No Compensation for the Kin of Farmers who committed Suicide - No Rythu Bheema to all the farmers:

Telangana is in the 3rd place in the suicides of the farmers. On an average three farmers are committing suicide every day, and more than 1,000 farmers are ending lives in a year. A total of 7500 farmers committed suicide during KCR’s regime. But the kin of these  farmers are not paid compensation as per GO 194. The government is refusing to identify them as the farmers’ suicides.

While 17,845 farmers died in 2018-19, 19,351 died in 2019-20 and 28,500 died in 2020-21. All the kin of the 65,696 farmers got Rythu Bheema, but tenant farmers who do not own the land, farmers aged above 59 years, and farm labourers are not entitled to get the Rythu Bheema. And 95 percent of the farmers are from BC, SC and ST communities.

 

Tenant Farmers' Never Ending Predicament:

KCR’s government is not recognising the tenant farmers as farmers. This inhuman government has no sympathy for them. Failure in identifying the 15 lakh tenant farmers as farmers and failure in addressing their problems is the testimony to the insensitivity and hollowness of KCR Sarkar. 80 percent of the farmers who committed suicide are tenant farmers in the State. While there was the Licensed Cultivators Act, 2011 of the composite State of Andhra Pradesh (AP) in force, it is not being implemented in Telangana State. As per this law, the tenant farmers must be identified and provided with LEC cards. The tenant farmers should be extended all sorts of support to help them cultivate land without financial burden.

 

Dharani Web Portal is a Big Deception:

Dharni portal is nothing but an official conspiracy to occupy the lands in lakhs of acres by KCR and his henchmen in the name of setting the records straight and digitization of the lands. Stating that it would resolve the issues of the lands by bringing the Dharani portal, TRS Govt has indeed created new problems. Farmers are going from pillar to post at the revenue offices to resolve their land issues. 30 percent of the land owners are yet to receive the patta books. Vexed with this problem, some of them even committed suicide. Farmers, who have been cultivating lands for several years, are unable to get the rights over the land due to negligence of the government. Claiming some lands as disputed in nature and putting them in Part-B, officials are resorting to corruption. While lakhs of people have applied for the rights over the land making Sada Bainama applications, they are not completely resolved. On the pretext of technical issues, several revenue issues are kept pending.

 

In addition to this, many patta lands were shown in the banned list due to negligence of officials. Though lakhs of people applied for the removal of their lands from the banned list, the applications were not resolved. People who got the lands in Telangana Peasant Movement and Telangana Armed Struggle, were not given the rights on the land, as the government had shown record in the name of those landlords who left for other cities and towns by leaving their lands in 1950s and 60s.

KCR Sarkar taking back the lands distributed to poor during Congress rule:

 

No patta books are being given to the lands given to the poor while the Congress was in power. KCR, who promised to resolve the issue of podu lands, is indeed trying to take back the lands from the innocent tribals. Nearly 24 lakh acres of the lands were distributed to the poor for cultivation by the erstwhile Congress governments, but many of the lands are being taken back on the pretext of constructing graveyards, Rythu Vedikas, Prakruthi Vanalu. The State government is running the real estate business by converting the land into plots. Three-acre land to Dalit scheme has been put on back burner.

 

These are just few issues plaguing Telangana farmers under KCR's rule and the list will go on. It is time to put an end to the woes of not just farmers but of students, youth, women, SC, ST, BC and Minorities. The only way to put an end to the problems of these sections is to put an end to the autocratic and uncaring government of TRS. Instead of development, equality, social justice newly formed Telangana has witnessed corruption, oppression and family rule of KCR.

CM KCR has become so arrogant that he is making a mockery of democracy. TRS Sarkar believes that peoples 'votes' can be purchased with currency 'notes'. Instead of focusing on ideologies and good governance, KCR is using cunning tactics and luring people with money earned through corruption. He is coming up with new dramas to get back to power for the third time using farmers. It is time people of Telangana realise the importance of putting an end to draconian TRS rule to ensure democracy and equitable development of all sections of the society.  We need to build a Telangana which respects the sacrifices of martyrs, ensures social justice, offers equal opportunities to people from all sections to progress in their fields and live with dignity. Rahul Gandhi's Rythu Sangarshana Sabha at Warangal will the be first step in that direction.



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For the sake of the people of the beleaguered former state of Jammu and Kashmir, which has not had an elected popular government since June 2018, the final report submitted by the Delimitation Commission to redraw its election map must be welcomed, despite its several shortcomings. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was bifurcated subsequently in August 2019, the region of Ladakh separated and notified as a Union Territory and its special status under Article 370 and Article 35(A) withdrawn.

Besides the absence of an elected government, these highly contentious series of steps that have changed the status of Jammu and Kashmir, including the inner balances between the erstwhile regions of Ladakh, Jammu and the Kashmir valley, have left the people dismayed and discontented.

 

The process of delimitation took the route of considering the two reasonably distinct regions of Jammu and Kashmir, with their sui generis demographics and political orientations, as a single unit in making new recommendations.

This, along with the abrogation and abolition of the state’s historic autonomy, are bound to lead to sustained political slugfests, with critics raising allegations of gerrymandering by the BJP-led government to pursue its manifesto and political agenda.

Post the panel’s recommendations, all the five Lok Sabha constituencies will have an equal number of Assembly seats, for the first time. Reservations of nine Assembly seats for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) are a first, and certainly most welcome.

 

The changed composition of the state Assembly, vis-à-vis the two distinct regions, 47 to Kashmir Valley and 43 to Jammu, a rise of six seats for the predominantly Hindu region, will still ensure a majority for the Valley but with a vastly reduced numerical edge. A curious method deployed has been to ensure each Assembly seat is drawn to ensure it is restricted to a single administrative district.

Another positive, welcome, move is to recommend additional seats to be added to the Assembly for Kashmiri migrants, and people who reside in India after having been displaced from the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Singularly, a reservation of a seat to ensure the representation to displaced people is a highly progressive move and can help assuage historic feelings of collective hurt and a memory filled with dark pain.

 

While the census of 2011 was used as a statistical basis for the process of calculations for the delimitation (India could not conduct a normal census in 2021 due to the pandemic), the panel also met with people of all sub-sections of the people to factor in socio-economic dimensions and aspirations, as well as steep inequalities and differences.

It is now imperative for all sections of society to back the plan. The Centre and the Election Commission must ensure the promise of the BJP government made in Parliament by home minister Amit Shah that elections would be held soon after delimitation is completed must be kept.

 

No people in a democratic society must be denied a popular government for too long. There would never be a possibility of a perfect solution or a consensus on such contentious issues, with such marked diversities of worldview, but restoration of a popular government could be a first on which we all agree upon, and one which we hope for.



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Prashant Kishor’s latest announcement that he has no immediate plans to start a political party from his home turf of Bihar but will be going on a 3,000-km padayatra from October 2 reflects the cautiousness of an electoral strategist before taking the final plunge.

On the national level, it also shows things didn’t work out his way in the Congress revival project, leading to a parting of ways with the Grand Old Party. Electoral strategists like Mr Kishor like to have things their way. But for a party like the Congress, it is impossible to accept the premise of “my way or the highway”!

 

Mr Kishor’s statement that the Congress Party could revive on its own and does not need him is borne out of his deep understanding and belief that the 2024 Lok Sabha polls will be an entirely different ballgame. He has already debunked Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s claim that the battle for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has been decided by the 2022 polls in Uttar Pradesh.

While at present it is advantage BJP, sometimes one week can be a long time in politics. How far the road to New Delhi will be smooth or bumpy for the rival contestants would be known from the way the wicket would turn out in a dozen-odd state Assembly polls preceding it.

 

For the beleaguered Congress, the message is that if it truly implements Mr Kishor’s “transformational reforms”, it will be able to face the situation when Prime Minister Modi sets the BJP’s aggressive election machinery in poll mode for a hat-trick to capture New Delhi after his spectacular victories of 2014 and 2019.

Mr Kishor’s parting of ways with the Congress before the revival project could even take off had been another shock as the loss of power in Punjab and the dismal show in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand have put more than a question mark over the political acumen of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and their wayward methods of running the organisation.

 

It had appeared Mr Kishor was more than a necessity for the Congress, which had floundered in every which way. In a way, involving Mr Kishor in Congress affairs was like referring a sick industrial unit to the BIFR.

In politics, there is always a “Plan B”, and there must be one for parties like the Congress that are virtually fighting for survival. Congress leaders like Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot had hailed Mr Kishor as a “big brand” whose expertise was needed for the turnaround plan. The Congress’ brainstorming session at Udaipur later this month is timely, to generate new ideas at such a crucial juncture.

 

Some time ago Mr Kishor had made it clear “the IDEA and SPACE that #Congress represents is vital for a strong Opposition”. He went on: “But Congress’ leadership is not the DIVINE RIGHT of an individual especially, when the party has lost more than 90% elections in last 10 years. Let Opposition leadership be decided democratically”.

The fact that Mr Kishor is not bitter about the Congress means that he will be in touch with the Congress leadership ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Mr Kishor is open about the fact that leaders of all parties are in touch with him.

 

While parting ways, Mr Kishor had said what the Congress really needs is leadership. Rahul Gandhi has to prove him wrong by decisively scuttling a hat-trick by Mr Modi. No political pundit is needed to predict that if the Congress fails to fight like hell, it will face doom. Time will tell whether the Congress can rise to the occasion when the Opposition space is not only divided, but despondency has set in.

On Bihar, Mr Kishor sees an opportunity for a new outfit given the state’s backwardness for the past 30 years despite being ruled by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. The state that launched Jayaprakash Narayan’s “Total Revolution” in the 1970s is now in a shambles.

 

Mr Kishor’s press conference on Thursday has given the clearest signal yet that the strategist who helped shape a number of electoral victories, right from Narendra Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha triumph, is no longer ready to look at the game from the sidelines.

After what he himself described as his “rollercoaster ride”, virtually from Kashmir to Kanyakumari over the past decade as a political adviser, he was bound to take the next step of plunging directly into politics. Mr Kishor will not admit it, but he has seen from close quarters the rise of Arvind Kejriwal and the AAP in the past decade from an anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare.

 

“The best politics is right action”, Mahatma Gandhi had once said. It is a favourite quote of Mr Kishor. He has embarked upon what he feels as the “right action” at the moment. If Mr Kishor can make his political foray work, perhaps it would be the first example in democratic India that a political consultant would be wearing the hat of a leader.

What is of significance is that a political consultant is daring to enter in the rough and tumble world of politics irrespective of the consequences. When politics is becoming more sectarian for immediate gains, the ventures of men like Mr Kishor will evince interest in India and abroad and could help show the way ahead. Though economically backward, Bihar is politically one of the most enlightened states of India. How much the padayatra could help the political consultant to turn into a leader will be known soon. The India of the 21st century needs a 21st century thought.

 

Starting such ventures do have their own drawbacks. While the AAP has succeeded, it does not mean every such venture will succeed. It is almost like a start-up. One of the AAP’s founders, Yogendra Yadav, launched his own outfit after being expelled from the party, but it is yet to gain any real momentum.

Mr Kishor will be busy with his own game in Bihar for a while to get his political venture going. But he is too ambitious a person to restrict his activities to just one state. One thing is clear though: Mr Kishor’s stature as a political strategist par excellence will be confirmed only if he can ensure a non-BJP combine at the Centre after 2024 -- a tall order indeed. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have worked with him earlier, but they don’t need him any longer. For now, they look invincible. But tomorrow is another day.



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“So come with the Andhbhakts and leave the lot

Of Mahatmaji and Vallabhai forgot

 

Let injustice and prejudice prevail

And Krishna assert Dharma -- heed them not.”

From the Rubaiyat of Putana Tr, by Bachchoo

Because my first name is Persian, I am often mistaken for a Muslim. I am not. I was born a Zoroastrian and grew up with friends of different faiths -- Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jews and possibly others. In our teens we would follow the “taboots” or “tajias” which the Shia community would parade, to the insistent rhythm of drums, around town all night and immerse in the city’s river at dawn. Not from faith but for kicks.

 

Millions of Indians celebrate every festival -- Diwali, Christmas, Id and Baisakhi. The Zoroastrian New Year, or Navroz, isn’t widely publicised or celebrated. The day before is the day of penitence, called Peteti or Papeti, I don’t to this day know which is the authentic word. (So, look it up on Wikipedia, idiot! --Ed) As we trooped into the fire temple on the day there would, year after year, be the same old non-Zoroastrian individual seeking alms at the gate claiming the festival saying “Aamchi Popti! Aamchi Popti!”

 

Now through Ramzan culminating in Id-ul-Fitr, there are posters all over London urging Muslims to contribute one-fifth of their earnings as zakat to various charities. A good Muslim friend tells me that Id is the occasion when the faithful ask God to recognise their sacrifice through fasting all through the days of Ramzan, not praying for material gifts, but for peace on earth and goodwill to humanity.

This would include praying for the souls of slaughtered non-combatant Muslims of Aleppo and other Syrian cities wiped out by Russian arms in support of the Shia dictator. It would include a prayer for the Rohingya Muslims persecuted by the China-supported military dictatorship of Myanmar. It should certainly include a prayer for the Uyghur Muslims confined to concentration camps to “re-educate” them and induce them to abandon Islam and embrace Xi Jinping (vacancy of) thought. It may include a prayer for the souls of Muslims murdered by Vladimir Putin in Chechnya. And today it should certainly be more than just prayers in support of the innocent millions of Ukraine being slaughtered by the ex-KGB “freedom-to-live in-gulags-and-be-poisoned-by-Novochok” fighter, Vlad the indefensible Bad.

 

One doesn’t have to be a Muslim or be one of the “Ehl-e-kitab”, the people of the Book -- Jews, Christians and Muslims -- to offer such a prayer for the oppressed.

Several Islamic scholars now include Zoroastrians as the people of the fourth book. This is appropriate as Zarathustra was acknowledgedly the first monotheistic prophet. Whether we Zoroastrians are included or not doesn’t much concern me very much -- I have always regarded myself as Ehl-e-library.

Not all the Ehl-e-kitabists are united in condemning the slaughter and Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. Patriarch Kirill of the Orthodox Russian Church is an enthusiastic supporter of the war. Pope Francis spoke to him and urged him to take a firm stand for peace. In the widely reported conversation, Pope Francis doesn’t venture to condemn the Russian mafia led by Vladimir Putin and his billionaire oligarchs and pronounces Christian sympathies for the victims of Ukraine and for the hundreds, if not thousands, of Russian soldiers killed in this war.

 

A British rabbi, Jonathan Romain, whose mother fled Nazi Germany on the Kindertransport during the Second World War, has initiated a “Ukrainetransport” for refugees fleeing the bombing and slaughter in the cities of Ukraine. He has been flooded with offers from British households prepared to offer rooms to refugees.

Explaining the initiative, Jonathan Romain says: “I have always wondered how I could repay the debt I owe to the Kindertransport, who saved my then 11-year-old mother. Now is the time….”

We Zoroastrians have no acknowledged popes though there are high priests here and there. They don’t, unlike Hollywood “celebrities”, pronounce on political matters though I am in favour of them regularly condemning assaults on the innocent and the helpless.

 

I crave your indulgence, gentle reader, to conclude this column by protesting that while I am not inclined to convert to Islam, I am genuinely moved by the Quranic parable of Verse 5:32 forbidding the killing of all innocents.

And adding to this conclusion, here’s my translation of a story from the celebrated Persian poet Rumi:

“Two friends, a Muslim and a Zarthushti

Had from childhood lived in close amity

The first turned to his friend, meaning no harm

Suggesting he should convert to Islam

The Zarthushti replied: “If God commands

 

I shall of course comply with his demands.”

The Muslim said: “Allah wishes you well

Converting to Islam saves you from hell.

So, say the words and give your soul relief

Though your ego persists in disbelief.”

The Zarthushti then replied to his friend:

“This thing called ego compels me to bend

To its wishes and if God controls all

The Universe, my ego’s in his thrall.

Nothing, we know, happens without his will

Then why if he ordains all am I still

A Zarthushti? He leaves us to decide

 

What’s true or false -- from Him no soul can hide

The dictates of free will is his bequest,

To humans to believe as they think best.”

The Muslim decided not to retort

They both sat sipping coffee in deep thought.”

Err... Jai Shambho!



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