The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the number of deaths in India directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19 to be 4.74 million. This is the highest for any country and nine times the nation’s official count of 5,24,000 as of May 2022. The WHO numbers are derived through robust statistical methods that consider “excess” deaths during the pandemic period. The WHO has models that India has objected to.
The WHO numbers come as an embarrassment for the government, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed in Parliament on February 8, 2022 that “India’s efforts (in tackling the pandemic) are being appreciated around the world”. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has questioned the use of mathematical models when “authentic data” are available from India. As per this data, India’s total reported deaths from all causes in 2020 were 4,75,000 more than the previous year. Surprisingly, the year-on-year increase in deaths was higher in the years immediately preceding the pandemic — about 6,95,000 in 2019 over 2018, and 4,87,000 in 2018 over 2017, according to official data.
There is a lot of scepticism over the Indian numbers given the irreconcilable and alarming discrepancy between India’s count and the WHO estimates. The government has received a lot of flak for the way it handled the pandemic — starting from the sudden and total lockdown to the shortage of oxygen to the way many had to struggle to get admitted in hospitals and died waiting for a bed to the slowness with which vaccination was rolled out.
Inability to report accurately
But this should not blind us to the flaws in our ability to count deaths and determine the causes of deaths. This process requires systems, money and commitment. More than 75 years since it became free, India does not have a public health division which can systematically collect and analyse data on diseases. Such a governmental arm would mandate doctors to report infectious diseases, pick up the earliest signals of outbreaks in any part of the country and keep count of the number of cause-specific deaths. No one in power has publicly acknowledged this missing link or thought it fit to build such a system. The WHO, sometimes sanctimonious in its advice and at other times coercive in its prescriptions, has conveniently side-stepped any support or guidance on that critical front for the last several years.
It may be easy, even fair, to argue that the government is hiding the real numbers of deaths, or that image management is taking precedence over the truth, even though the official count has been widely thought to be lower than actual deaths. The only difference now is that the magnitude of the discrepancy is staggering, and it comes with the official stamp of the WHO.
Yet, the government needed to do little to hide the real numbers that just do not get documented. India’s system simply stayed true to its time-tested tendency of reporting less. The internal drivers of data are geared to under-report for a host of reasons, governmental image being but one of them. In the absence of a robust reporting system and standard, hospitals, bureaucrats, civic bodies and even clerks under-report.
What needs to be stressed is that India’s health management machinery could not have taken any other route to report the numbers than it did. This is how reporting deaths worked when no one was looking, and this is how it worked when everyone was looking. It also suits the government in this case.
The problems of counting are the same with malaria, typhoid, cholera, rabies, leptospirosis, scrub typhus or death by snake bite. Only with regard to tuberculosis (TB) is there some degree of caution in reporting numbers. This is because of heavy disease burden and an elaborate system of monitoring that includes a TB division in the Central Health Ministry, and State, district and local TB units that go down to the last mile, with the entire design endorsed by the WHO. Yet, reliable, locality-specific, real-time numbers are absent. Eventually statistics get compiled, but no one scrutinises the methods.
We must, therefore, hold the government accountable, but we must also look beyond the immediate blame game and see this as an opportunity for India to build a system that can fix this long-term problem. We need to urgently invest in a robust public health infrastructure that will have to be built from the ground up.
Health management has two parts: public health (with surveillance and prevention) and healthcare (for diagnosis, treatment). It hardly matters to the doctor (healthcare) if somebody died of typhoid fever, since that does not change anything for the diagnosis and treatment of the next patient with some other disease. But for a public health professional, the accuracy of typhoid fever is important for detecting the transmission channel and source of the microbe, in order to prevent more cases. So, reporting every death with the accurate/verifiable cause of death is essential for public health, only if it exists. The demand for accuracy comes from public health, not from healthcare.
TB cannot be controlled by the healthcare protocols given by the WHO. TB control requires both public health and universal, primary and secondary healthcare.
Public health surveillance
Healthcare professionals must report all health events as required by public health in a process called public health surveillance. That must function as the early warning radar system that functions 24X7 in all parts of India. This is not challenging to build as an online platform or app with available bandwidth. This is essential for emerging threats to be noticed and acted upon and for auditing the outcome of budgets spent on disease control. We need diseases diagnosed according to protocols, information collected in real-time and acted upon immediately, and statistics that can be verified. Such a surveillance system was piloted by one of us (Dr. John) in the North Arcot district in the 1980s, sustained for a decade and replicated in the Kottayam district of Kerala in the 1990s, before it was dismantled as the Health Ministry did not grasp the significance of surveillance as information for action.
Births and deaths are demographic events and counting them has been an age-old tool for managing the wealth of the State. It did not evolve in our culture but was necessary for the colonial rulers for managing wealth. Counting must therefore be purposeful, and statistics should emerge as a by-product of that counting. The administrators may believe that counting is only for ex post facto statistics. In this, the significance of surveillance and numbers is lost, and any inaccuracy comes to be seen as unimportant.
In Europe, health managers figured out that microbial diseases had social and environmental determinants that allowed the governments to intervene and prevent infectious diseases; thus was born the concept and infrastructure called public health. We must seize the opportunity to create our own design of health management in our best interests. The WHO can advise, but is not accountable for outcomes. If the government takes that step, it will be a signal achievement towards making India a developed nation.
Jagdish Rattanani is a journalist and a faculty member at Bhavan's SPJIMR; T. Jacob John is retired Professor of Clinical Virology, Christian Medical College, Vellore, and Past President of the Indian Academy of Paediatrics (Through The Billion Press)
The power crisis has taken us by surprise. The question in everyone’s mind is: where did we go wrong? And who slipped up? Clearly, there was complacency as the power supply position was comfortable for some years; there was ‘surplus’ capacity. Then there were stranded coal- and gas-based power plants which had become non-performing assets. It was, however, not appreciated that electricity demand growth had been lower than expected, due to slower and less energy-intensive economic growth. The robust economic recovery after two waves of COVID-19 and the unexpected heat wave have brought back power cuts. The Government is undertaking emergency measures such as cancelling passenger trains so as to be able to get the Indian Railways to transport more coal to power plants, and issuing directives to use more imported coal to tide over the supply shortfall.
Nature of consumer demand
Taking a holistic view of responsibilities in the supply chain would be helpful in avoiding such recurrences. Under the Electricity Act, it is the responsibility of the Distribution Licensee/Company (Discom) to provide reliable quality and round-the-clock electricity to all consumers to meet full demand. To do so, they enter into contracts with a number of generating companies in order to ensure adequate supply. These Discoms work under the oversight of the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions.
With higher incomes and the consequent increase in the use of air-conditioners and other electrical appliances, the nature of electricity demand is undergoing a qualitative transformation with rising daily and seasonal peaks, and spikes on very hot or cold days. This will only increase in the years ahead.
Towards reliable supply
While demand prediction is inherently uncertain, the questions to ask are whether Discoms have been making and updating their demand growth projections and scenarios over the medium term with adequate supply arrangements in a robust manner. And whether State Regulatory Commissions have been demanding these and scrutinising them transparently. This needs to become central to the regulatory process. Ensuring reliable supply to meet unanticipated peaks, as have occurred now, requires making supply arrangements with reserve margins that are adequate. These would be expensive just as backup private captive diesel generation is. The Regulatory Commissions need to provide for such expensive peaking power arrangements in the tariffs they approve. It is also time to move towards separate peaking power procurement contracts in addition to the present system of long-term thermal power contracts. Once things have settled, it would also be useful to see in a granular manner where generators have defaulted contractually in supplying power to Discoms, and where Coal India or the Indian Railways have been in default. There may be a case for tightening their contractual terms with enforceable financial penalties.
Further, a transition to demand-based time of day rates of electricity for generators as well as consumers would help. These should be brought in by the Regulatory Commissions. Peak demand moderation and flattening of the demand curve through a change in consumer behaviour is feasible with smart meters. But this would take place only with a strong price signal, a large differential in peak and off-peak rates. This differential needs to be so wide that large consumers find it worthwhile to put in sensors and timers, and use cheap electricity at around 3 a.m. to switch on geysers and washing machines, and to raise air conditioner temperature settings by 2°-3° Celsius in the afternoon on hot days when the electricity is expensive. A very high level of reliability has higher costs, contracts for unexpected peak demand. The requirement of backup power will keep rising as the share of uncertain renewable generation grows. Specific options need to be transparently evaluated and decisions taken. The consumer, the political class and the Regulatory Commissions have the collective responsibility for optimal decisions for reliable supply rather than the short-term comfort of minimal or no tariff increases resulting in the consequences that we are now witnessing.
Subsidies and politics
Free supply of electricity to farmers and households up to a specified level is not a problem as long as State governments pay for it as provided in the Act, and the Regulatory Commissions do not at the same time act from a political point of view and shy away from determining cost-reflective tariffs. The problem is the absence of meaningful political discussion on the relative benefits from subsidies in different areas and their affordability.
While the problem of delayed payments by Discoms is getting highlighted and needs to be resolved with a sense of urgency, the coal supply problem is not due to this. Coal India is not short of cash to be able to increase production. It should do so faster. Coal India needs to create capacities to rapidly ramp up production; and the Railways need to carry larger quantities of coal when demand surges, as has happened now. Extreme weather events will increase in intensity and frequency due to climate change. These capacity cushions have to be created at the earliest and paid for.
Some solutions
There is idle but expensive generating capacity available — about 15-20 GW of gas-based power plants which can run on imported liquefied natural gas, and 6 GW-8 GW of thermal plants which can run on imported coal. The exercise of the option of buying electricity from these plants and having no power cuts would provide immediate relief. But where an across-the-board increase in rates may not appear feasible, consumers who are willing to pay more could be kept free of power cuts with purchase and supply of more expensive electricity generated from imported coal and gas. This willingness could be conveyed through resident welfare/ industries associations. They could pay for this through a peak demand surcharge in their bills. The Regulatory Commission could undertake subsequent scrutiny to see that the surcharge has been computed correctly.
To improve reliability, Discoms, with the approval of the Regulatory Commissions, need to go in for bids for storage. It may even turn out to be the cheaper option in the short run to meet peaking power needs. Large-scale grid storage is in any case essential to achieve the goals for 2030 — of creating 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity including 450 GW of renewables.
Ajay Shankar is a Distinguished Fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). He has worked for many years in the Power Ministry, dealing with reforms and the Electricity Act 2003. The views expressed are personal
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Germany on May 2 came at a critical time, shaped by the ongoing Ukraine war. In recent times, New Delhi has been at its assertive best. Even as the United States and the European nations have applied sanctions on Moscow and provided military aid to Ukraine, New Delhi has refused to play ball. It has not only avoided condemning Moscow by abstaining in the United Nations (UN) on critical votes on the war but has also continued to engage with Moscow to increase its import of cheap crude. Its long-standing and traditional defence links with Russia remain intact. Such moves have raised eyebrows and attracted some amount of criticism from the West. New Delhi, however, insists that its position on the war is non-partisan and should be appreciated by its allies and friends.
For a nuanced stance
However, assertive media and conference statements by India’s External Affairs Minister notwithstanding, there is growing recognition in India’s strategic circles that New Delhi has to bring in more nuance to its approach with Europe. Given India’s stature, being completely isolated by the West is certainly not a best-case scenario. However, with an assertive China on the world stage and in particular, at the border with India, New Delhi needs to manage a delicate balancing act while asserting its right to pursue its national interests and strategic autonomy in foreign policy. Mr. Modi’s three-nation Europe tour (May 2-4) needs to be contextualised with these factors in the backdrop.
There is a clear, albeit delayed, move toward a unified responsevis-à-vis Russia in Europe. Its significant reliance on Russian gas and crude notwithstanding, condemnation of Moscow’s moves in Ukraine is near unanimous in Europe. Not surprisingly, India’s abstention in the UN votes and its continuation of its relationship with Russia have raised quite a few hackles in Germany. In private as well as public discussions, India’s role as a major power and largest democracy are being brought to the forefront and there is a growing expectation that India needs to make a shift from its position on Russia and join hands with the European countries and the U.S. in protecting democracy in need. Amidst these expectations and pressure tactics, whether the Prime Minister’s visit to Germany helped change the perception and bridge the gap that has been growing, assumes critical importance.
Mr. Modi’s visit took place during the first term of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Prior to Mr. Modi’s visit, the Chancellor had visited Japan, in his first visit to Asia. This is construed as a sign of Germany reaching out to other Asian powers and building on democratic alliances as an outcome of its Indo-Pacific guidelines. These two meetings had raised, albeit mistakenly, expectations among some analysts here in Germany of a democratic dividend that may lead to a convergence of views and possibly policies on Russia between the two countries. As proved by the Ukraine war, however, New Delhi has chosen to prioritise its interests over pursuing a policy that is shaped by common democratic values that define Germany, Japan and India.
The China factor
In fact, for several years now, Indian policies have resisted promoting democracy in the neighbourhood and have instead opted to deal with de facto powers. Afghanistan, where India is still reluctant to do business with the Taliban, is probably an aberration. On the other hand, India’s policy towards Myanmar’s junta is defined by this pragmatism. Therefore, the democratic rationale of a convergence of interests to protect democratic values is hardly a strong binding chord between India and Germany. The geopolitical convergence of countering the rise of China particularly in the Indo-Pacific seems to be a more compelling necessity rather than the ideational and normative aspects of protecting democratic norms and values.
Engagement with Europe
New Delhi’s objective is multifaceted as far its relations with Europe in general and Germany in particular is concerned. So far, it has not revised its position on Russia and Ukraine, by continuing to underline its unequivocal condemnation of the violence. However, unlike the West, India makes it clear that irrespective of its position on a solitary issue of geopolitical relevance, which the former may find difficult to reconcile with, the bilateral engagement with countries such as Germany, France and Denmark remains at the top of its priority. The purpose of such a policy is clearly to present itself as not being isolated but as a swing power that can move deftly on the geopolitical and diplomatic chessboard.
Towards this direction, the holding of the sixth India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC), a biennial format which India conducts with Germany, assumed critical importance. India attaches significant importance to the ‘long-standing commercial ties’ with Germany, an important pillar of the ‘Strategic Partnership’, which the two nations entered into in 2000. The idea, therefore, is to highlight a convergence of issues of economics, technology and climate change (low hanging fruits), in spite of the intensifying dissonance on democratic and strategic issues. That remains the crux of the Indian approach.
Room for full ties
It remains a fact that India-Germany relations have yet to achieve their full potential. One of the factors for that, possibly, is the lack of understanding of each other’s strategic cultures and domestic politics. It is doubtful that Mr. Modi’s visit changed any of that, particularly in the absence of any media interaction and strategic communication. Germany has invited Mr. Modi to the G-7 meeting in June this year, construed as a bid to wean India away from its position on Russia. However, while the attempt may not be successful, it is certainly a pointer to the emerging multipolarity in the international system, which provides space for major powers such as Germany and India to play a greater role in bringing peace and stability in other theatres, particularly in Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific. In times of shifting geopolitical alliances and realignments, India and Germany can emerge as important poles in shaping the new world order.
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is founder and President, Mantraya and Visiting Fellow, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin. The views are personal and based on interviews and discussions in Germany. They do not reflect the views of the institutes
Though the phenomenon of Indian-origin executives becoming CEOs of top U.S. companies highlights the contribution of Indian talent to the U.S. economy, the role played by Indian semi-skilled migrant labour in the global economy is no less illustrious. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, there are over 13.4 million Non-Resident Indians worldwide. Of them, 64% live in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the highest being in the United Arab Emirates, followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Almost 90% of the Indian migrants who live in GCC countries are low- and semi-skilled workers, as per International Labour Organization estimates. Other significant countries of destination for overseas Indians are the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Canada.
High remittances
Every year, about 2.5 million workers from India move to different parts of the world on employment visas. Besides being involved in nation-building of their destination countries, Indian migrant workers also contribute to the homeland’s socioeconomic development, through remittances. According to a report by the National Statistical Office, urban and rural households receiving remittances (both international and domestic) have approximately 23% and 8% better financial capacity, respectively, than non-remittance-receiving households.
As per a World Bank Group report (2021), annual remittances transferred to India are estimated to be $87 billion, which is the highest in the world, followed by China ($53 billion), Mexico ($53 billion), the Philippines ($36 billion) and Egypt ($33 billion). In 2021, remittances transferred to India had seen an increase of 4.6% compared to 2020. Remittances in India have been substantially higher than even Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the flow of remittances is much less fluctuating than that of FDI. Still, remittances’ contribution of 3% in GDP is lower than that of countries such as Nepal (24.8%), Pakistan (12.6%), Sri Lanka (8.3%) and Bangladesh (6.5%), as per a World Bank report.
Besides being a win-win situation for both the destination and source country, labour migration is good hedging strategy against unsystematic risks for any economy. Human capital should also be invested in a diversified portfolio akin to financial capital. For many countries, remittances have been of vital support to the domestic economy after a shock. For example, after the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, overseas Nepalese increased remittances to an estimated 30% of GDP.
Can India increase remittances to say 10% of GDP? Can the Philippines’ model of promoting labour mobility be replicated in India? Both the cost of recruitment of such workers and the cost of sending remittances back to India should come down. The safety and well-being of migrant labour is of top priority for the government. Reducing informal/undocumented migration and formalising all remittances is being given due focus. Recruitment agencies should also be regulated leveraging information technology for ensuring protection of migrant workers leaving India. An integrated grievance redressal portal, ‘Madad’, was launched by the government in 2015. Of the approximately 78,000 grievances registered so far by the Indian migrants, more than 95% have been resolved.
Provisions of the Emigration Bill
The Indian government proposed a new Emigration Bill in 2021 which aims to integrate emigration management and streamline the welfare of emigrant workers. It proposes to modify the system of Emigration Check Required (ECR) category of workers applying for migration to 18 notified countries. The ECR category mainly comprises those who have not passed Class 10 and face the challenge of risky informal emigration and subsequent hardships abroad. The Bill makes it mandatory for all category of workers to register before departure to any country in the world to ensure better protection for them, support and safeguard in case of vulnerabilities. The proposed Emigration Management Authority will be the overarching authority to provide policy guidance.
The number of migrant workers need not go up for remittances to increase if the skill sets of workers are improved. Provisions of the Bill such as registration of all emigrants, skill upgradation and training, and pre-departure orientation will enhance protection measures. Besides workers, as about 0.5 million students also migrate for education from India every year, the Bill also covers such students. This will provide a comprehensive data set for the efficient management of Indian migrants. Skilling of migrant workers has the potential to boost the domestic economy and low-cost interventions such as foreign language training can be of great help for such workers.
Rajesh Gupta is Director and Rakesh Ranjan an Associate in NITI Aayog. Views are personal
Over two months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, the UN Security Council finally managed to issue a statement calling for ‘a peaceful solution’ and backing the efforts of Secretary-General António Guterres in this direction. While the carefully drafted statement avoided any reference to ‘war’, ‘invasion’ or ‘conflict’, the fact that the 15 members of the Council, including Russia which has veto power, unanimously agreed to the call for peace shows that all sides are feeling the heat of the conflict. Going by the votes in the UN General Assembly, international public opinion is heavily against the war and the UNSC is expected to do more to bring the violence to an end. The statement was issued a week after Mr. Guterres held talks with Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, in Moscow and Kyiv, respectively. But his mission would be successful only if the parties concerned showed seriousness in ending the war. As of now, neither exists beyond statements. For example, Russia stepped up attacks in Ukraine after the UNSC statement was issued. On Sunday, 60 people were killed in Luhansk. On Monday, Mr. Putin, in his Victory Day address marking the Soviet triumph over German Nazis, claimed that the Russian troops were “defending the motherland”, indicating that the war will grind on.
When he ordered the ‘special military operation’ for what he called the “demilitarisation and denazification’ of Ukraine, Mr. Putin must have expected a quick victory. But Ukraine’s resistance did not only deny the Russians this but also galvanised western support. When western financial and military aid hardened the Ukrainian resistance, the Russian troops, despite their incremental territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, appeared to have got stuck in the battlefield. The stalemate has increased the risks of a wider conflict. The U.S. now seems determined to “weaken Russia”, as Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has said. Russia, with its back against the wall, is warning of a third world war with nuclear weapons. The possibility of a direct Russia-West confrontation makes it the most dangerous moment in global politics since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. If both sides still believe in rational policymaking, they should immediately look for an offramp. Russia cannot ask for dialogue and peace when continuing to pound Ukrainian cities. Its war machine has slowed down and it is already facing economic and political isolation in Europe. Escalating this conflict, bringing the whole world into danger, does not serve anybody’s interest. Instead, Moscow should immediately end the attacks and support the UN Secretary General’s mission of finding a peaceful solution that could address the security concerns of both Ukraine and Russia.
Symbols of Sikh separatism that appeared at the Himachal Pradesh Assembly complex in Dharamshala on Sunday suggest that forces promoting it are active and capable of mischief. Purported flags of imaginary Khalistan were put up on the gate of the complex, and slogans scrawled on the walls. The State police chief has set up a special investigation team and ordered heightened vigil at the borders. On the same day, the police in Punjab said they had averted a terror attack after arresting two men, said to be Khalistani sympathisers, with explosives in Tarn Taran district. A U.S.-based Khalistani separatist has been charged in Himachal Pradesh under the UAPA and the Indian Penal Code. Opposition parties in the State, the Congress and AAP, have used the incident to make a case against the ruling BJP, months ahead of the Assembly election. Comparable rhetoric had shadowed the recent election in Punjab, where political opponents accused one another of being sympathetic to separatists. That was avoidable loose talk on a sensitive topic. Sikh separatism, and the accompanying terrorism supported by Pakistan, was snuffed out by the Indian state decades ago, but at a huge human and political cost. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated and the sectarian violence against the Sikh community that followed in different places deepened the fault lines. Those wounds continue to fester, and care must be taken by the state, political actors and community leaders to ensure that history does not repeat itself as yet another tragedy.
A separatist plan to hold a referendum on Khalistan in Himachal Pradesh is laughable, but vigilance is essential. The groups that call for Khalistan are based abroad, and command little respect in the Sikh mainstream at the moment. They campaign among the Sikh diaspora, alleging mistreatment of the community by the Indian state. They have a favourable environment though. Domestic divisions in India, exacerbated by the politics and policy of the ruling BJP, are echoing among the diaspora in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Australia. Religious minorities and Dalits have been disconnected from the diaspora mobilisation of the Indian government. Hindutva affiliates helm Indian diaspora politics. This provides an opening for India’s enemies to inflame passions. Fortunately for India, there are not many takers for such propaganda among the Sikh community. But thoughtless comments and campaigns against the community, particularly when they are led by powerful political actors, can trigger serious reactions. In its desperation to delegitimise the farm agitation, the BJP tacitly supported campaigns that portrayed Sikh protestors as anti-nationals inspired by foreign countries. Though isolated and feeble, Sikh separatism continues to flicker. It must serve as a constant reminder for social cohesion and impartial state policy.
The latest corruption scandal to hit the BJP government in Karnataka is the Police Sub-Inspector (PSI) recruitment scam. After initially denying any malpractice, the government ordered a CID probe. The CID found that those paying Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 80 lakh were able to secure top ranks. The discovery of malpractices forced the government to cancel the selection list for 545 PSIs and order a re-exam.
While the BJP has tried to brazen it out, it has not been able to shake off the stain of the scam on its image easily, especially since this comes close on the heels of the resignation of senior Minister K. S. Eshwarappa following the death of a contractor who had accused him of corruption. There have been allegations against BJP leaders, including a Minister, in the PSI recruitment scam too. One of the kingpins of the scam is Divya Hagaragi, a BJP leader who runs a school in Afzalpur, an exam centre for PSI exams that has now turned out to be a hub of malpractices. Two block-level Congress leaders from Afzalpur — Mahantesh Patil and Rudragouda Patil — have also been found to have colluded with Ms. Hagaragi and arrested.
The Opposition Congress has been alleging the involvement of Higher Education Minister Dr. C. N. Ashwath Narayan’s brother in the scam. It has also accused the Minister of influencing the probe, a charge that has been vehemently denied by the government and CID. However, the Congress has continued to target him, demanding his resignation and a judicial probe into the scandal, arguing that the CID probe was “neither independent nor credible”. JDS leader H.D. Kumaraswamy recently alleged that he had evidence on the “real kingpin”, a “future leader of the State.” He said the State government would fall if his name was revealed.
Voices within the ruling party are not helping the BJP either. Disgruntled legislator Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, who had accused B.S. Yediyurappa’s family of corruption when Mr. Yediyurappa was Chief Minister, recently said there were Ministers in the Cabinet who had paid to become Ministers. “I was offered the Chief Minister’s post for Rs. 2,500 crore and a Minister’s post for Rs. 100 crore,” he alleged. BJP State President Nalin Kumar Kateel has said Mr. Yatnal would be served a show-cause notice. But this is not the first time Mr. Yatnal has made allegations of graft in the BJP government, and earlier notices have not had any effect.
Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai had himself come under a cloud over the alleged bitcoin scam where bitcoins worth thousands of crores were allegedly stolen from a hacker in police custody, shortly after Mr. Bommai took charge. However, the government did not relent to Opposition demands and order a probe into the allegations. Meanwhile, Mr. Bommai has not been able to bring a thaw in the frosty relationship between his government and the contractors of the State who are all set to launch an agitation against “massive corruption” in government contracts. In an attempt to improve the image of his government, Mr. Bommai has been trying to spruce up the administration with an overhaul of the top bureaucracy.
The Congress has been aggressively pursuing allegations of graft against the BJP government. It is keen to shift the public narrative away from communal polarisation, while the saffron party wants to pursue it and ensure that the “anti-Hindu” image sticks on the Congress. The BJP has responded by attacking State Congress chief D.K. Shivakumar, who has cases of disproportionate assets, money laundering and benami properties against him. With no perceptible difference between various political players on the issue of corruption, it remains to be seen if this will become a key issue in the 2023 Assembly polls.
adhitya.bharadwaj@thehindu.co.in
New Delhi, May 9: The Industrial Development Minister, Mr. Moinul Haq Choudhury, to-day said a special drive would be launched shortly to ensure speedy implementation of the licences issued for various industrial projects in the country. Replying to a four-hour discussion in the Rajya Sabha on the working of his Ministry, Mr. Choudhury said the proposed drive would enable the Ministry to review the licensing process systematically, to revoke licences where necessary and to assist the entrepreneurs with speedy clearance where called for. He said the drive would be conducted by a regular committee of officers. The hour-long reply of Mr. Choudhury was marked by frequent interruptions by Mr. Bhupesh Gupta (CPI) who repeatedly levelled charges against the Minister who emphatically denied them. Mr. Choudhury said the game of praising some Ministers and running down others had been going on for the past few years. This was aimed at dividing the Congressmen and they would see through it. Raising his voice, he remarked: “I am not a Minister here at the mercy of anybody.” He denied there was any proposal under consideration to bring some labour-oriented industries from abroad.
The story could have turned out very differently: A teenager with special needs grew restless after a tiring journey to the airport and the long security check process; his parents calmed him down and boarded the flight with little trouble. What happened on Saturday at Ranchi’s Birsa Munda airport, instead, was this: The teenager drew the attention of a member of the Indigo Airlines ground staff, who reportedly refused to allow the family to board until he became “more normal”. The staff member cited “risk” to other passengers as the reason, even as the latter rallied around the family, who had already managed to calm down their son. The flight took off without the teenager, who was in a wheelchair, and his parents.
Indigo has since offered “sincere regrets” and an electric wheelchair to the family even as it insists that the staffer made “the best possible decision under difficult circumstances”. But the episode has once again put the spotlight on the treatment of persons with disabilities in public spaces, including and especially when they seek to travel. In this specific instance, it raises the question of whether the airline staff could have communicated their concerns to the parents earlier, instead of at the last minute and without apparent sensitivity or due process — guidelines issued by the Director General of Civil Aviation in 2014 say that airlines should “ensure (the) seamless travel” of passengers, including those with disabilities, who have a valid booking. It also raises the question of whether any or sufficient awareness and sensitisation training of its staff, as directed by the guidelines, was conducted by the airlines.
The broader question has to do with the right to dignity of persons with disabilities. In October last year, dancer Sudha Chandran had recounted her humiliation when she was forced to remove her prosthetic leg during an airport security check. While the CISF issued an apology, in December 2021, the Supreme Court, in its order in Jeeja Ghosh vs Union of India, said that forcing persons with disabilities to remove their prosthetics and calipers for security checks amounted to violation of their dignity and asked the DGCA to consider the suggestions of the petitioner to make improvements to its rules. Ghosh, who suffers from cerebral palsy and had been forcibly deboarded from a SpiceJet flight in 2012 due to her condition, had moved the apex court so that others like her wouldn’t suffer violations of their rights guaranteed under Articles 14 and 21 of the Constitution. The Ranchi incident shows that, despite Supreme Court directives, the DGCA’s rules and the Rights of Persons with Disabilities Act, 2016, much remains to be done.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘Flying low’
In Indian classical music, the chilla is a rigorous form of penance and practice that pushes the musician to find his own voice. At the end of it, it could be your wrecking ball or the place where you find yourself one with your raga. For structural engineer Mahendra Raj, who passed away Sunday in Delhi, that experience came from a place of frugality. His career grew alongside the evolution of an independent nation. When materials and budgets were limited, it was left to the ingenuity of engineers to build and design buildings that would last. Raj knew how to make the most of what he had — stabilised soil. With it, he designed refugee homes, in times when the then prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, spoke of precast concrete.
It was this rigour and his indefatigable thirst for innovation that drew international recognition. More than 180 structures across India bear his stamp. Raj’s work contributed towards giving architects the confidence to take risks, to be bold and different. From airports to offices, high courts and bridges, Raj detailed his designs to maximise efficiency. He would work out multiple alternatives for each design before arriving at the optimal solution that both matched the budget and affirmed the idea of the building.
But what makes a building stand tall, really? It’s not just the ability to resist gravity and take on the forces of nature, but the beauty and the connections it makes. Raj was able to do that in each of his buildings, taking on the challenge of turning walls and twisting columns, making spaces from crumpled paper and folding concrete and steel to make his roof fly. Modern Indian architecture stands on the tall shoulders of one who never gave up on his integrity, his spirit of inquiry and his pursuit of beauty.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘Standing tall’
British ships and helicopters have attacked Port Stanley and Port Darwin and fighter bombers sank a fishing vessel and machine-gunned lifeboats in the resumption of the Anglo-Argentine conflict over the Falkland Islands. An official communique from Argentina said that the British was repelled after 50 minutes. It said one crew member of a boat was killed and several others involved. It described the attack as treachery unknown in the history of naval warfare. Instructions have been issued to relevant organisations to raise the issue at different fora. In London, the Defence Minister announced that the fishing vessel has surrendered to the British task force. The spokesperson also confirmed that the British forces had Argentine forces around Port Stanley.
Watch over Delhi
A team of sleuths from the communal wing of the special branch of the Delhi police and the Union Home Ministry’s Intelligence Bureau has been asked to unearth the conspiracy behind the cases of sacrilege in some temples of the capital. While police pickets have been posted near temple and other sensitive spots, a close watch is being kept on the activists of Dal Khalsa. There are intelligence reports of miscreants doing something untoward after the incidents of sacrilege in Punjab and Haryana.
Vajpayee’s claims
BJP President Atal Bihari Vajpayee has alleged that the Congress (I) was preparing the ground to postpone the polls scheduled for May 19. It said the party was hatching the plan with communal groups and its regional allies because it apprehends a rebuff from the people in the polls. Five chief ministers of the party had been changed and many are likely to be changed after May 19, he said.
Warsaw protests
Police used water cannons in a bid to quell a fresh round of protests in the Polish capital, Warsaw. Some 1,000 people were participating in the protests.
The wait is over. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 report that was awaited for nearly six months is finally out. And it provides a heartening outlook.
The NFHS is a large, multi-round survey that, inter alia, provides information on fertility, infant and child mortality, the practice of family planning, reproductive health, nutrition, anaemia, quality and utilisation of health and family planning services. Started in 1992-93, it has culminated in the fifth round 2019-21.
The surveys provide essential data needed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and other agencies for policy and programme purposes. The Ministry assigned the nodal responsibility for the task to the International Institute for Population Sciences(IIPS), Mumbai. IIPS collaborates with a number of field Organisations to conduct the survey in different states. Several international agencies are involved in providing technical and financial assistance, mainly USAID, DFID, UNICEF, and UNFPA.
The report shows that India has finally achieved the replacement rate of 2.1TFR (Total Fertility Rate is the total number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime). In fact, it has gone below the mark to 2.0. There are, of course, large interstate variations. Several states are well below the replacement level, compensating for the five states that are above the national average of 2.
The lagging states are UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya. Significantly, there were four states originally of the Hindi belt which were keeping the figures poor, namely, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, known by their interesting acronym of BIMARU. Two states, Rajasthan and MP, have struggled to get out of this group, while Jharkhand and the two northeastern states have replaced them. UP and Bihar because of their sheer size are pulling down the national average. Their TFR is below the national average of 2 with Bihar at 3, Meghalaya at 2.9, UP at 2.4, Jharkhand at 2.3 and Manipur at 2.2.
Rajasthan and MP have reached the TFR of 2, which shows the success of their efforts. While it is heartening to see a majority of the states and Union Territories having gone much below the replacement rate, these states will start experiencing a decline in their population in a couple of decades.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across states and UTs
The figures would have been even better if all those who have been made aware of the benefits of family planning had received the services they desire. Here, it is important to understand the concept of “unmet need”. Making people informed of the need and methods of family planning and motivating them to adopt family planning is difficult enough. The great paradox is that having achieved the difficult task, we are not able to provide the services communities need — the “unmet need” — which is still very high at 9.4 per cent. The “unmet need” of the Muslims continues to be the highest – 11.8 per cent, down from 16.4 per cent five years ago which is a good sign. Compared to Muslims, the unmet need of the Hindus is 9 per cent. If we focus on this issue in a mission mode, the family planning performance will dramatically improve.
Another issue highlighted by the survey is the male attitude towards family planning. They tend to put the onus for birth control on women. As many as 35 per cent men believe that using contraceptives is a woman’s responsibility. They ignore the fact that male vasectomy is a much simpler procedure than female tubectomy. Not to speak of sterilisation, even the use of the simplest contraceptive, namely, the condom, is abysmally low. This calls for a more effective behaviour change communication programme through social marketing.
Another piece of good news is that the momentum of Muslim acceptance of family planning has continued through the five surveys spread over three decades at a rate faster than all other communities. Though birth control practice among Muslims is still the least – 47.4 per cent (up from 45 per cent in NFHS-4). But what is overlooked is the fact that other communities — for example, Hindus — are not far behind with 58 per cent (up from 56 per cent). This scenario must change as one can imagine the impact on population growth when as many as 42 per cent of the 80 per cent of the population are not practising family planning!
It is important to understand the factors that influence fertility behaviour. It is not religion as commonly propounded but literacy, especially of girls, income and delivery of family planning, and health services. Women who have not attended school have 2.8 TFR as against 1.8 for those who have completed class XII. Similar gap of figure one is visible in the context of poverty with the poorest segment having higher TFR than the richest.
Since Muslims are the most backward in all three socio-economic indicators, their backwardness in family planning is understandable but not acceptable. Unfortunately, not much effort is being made to address these issues. Social media is abuzz with videos where Hindu congregations are being administered oath not to do any business with Muslims and cripple them economically by their social and economic boycott. This is likely to be visible in Muslim children being denied admission in many schools run by people influenced by this ideology. The adverse impact of the toxic propaganda on fertility behaviour is easy to imagine.
The time has come to leave politics behind and work together for achieving the goals set by National Population Policy 2000. Instead of misleading narratives, we need to address the real determinants of fertility behaviour – literacy, income generation and improvement of health and family planning services. This will take the country to population stabilisation much sooner than expected.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 11, 2022 under the title ‘Stable population, unmet need’. The writer is former Chief Election Commissioner of India and the author of The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India.
The Indian government has catapulted the maxim of sarvajana hitaya, sarvajana sukhaya (for the good of all, for the happiness of all) into a palpable reality in the past decade. The extant essence of janhit (public interest) has been reinvented to “mainstream” gendered experiences. Gender mainstreaming has seamlessly pervaded every sphere of statecraft, ensuring it is not reduced to the ranks of an artificial add-on.
The incumbent government adopts a system-wide gendered lens to inform policy praxis. Women have been mandatorily recognised as the head of the household for the issuance of ration cards, under the auspices of The National Food Security Act, 2013. Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) and Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) accord benefits — homeownership and LPG connections, respectively — to women beneficiaries. Such interventions have unequivocally fortified women’s access to economic resources, elevating inter alia their social status.
Earlier schemes like the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) that inadvertently exempted women from seeking health services have been re-engineered and conclusively replaced. In its place, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) not only renders households without any adult male members eligible for the scheme, but also dismisses the off-colour cap of five beneficiaries per family that would penalise women in larger families, owing to male preference. Additionally, PM-JAY supports a substantial number of health benefits packages that are either women-centric in nature or are overwhelmingly common to both men and women. Under the aegis of the scheme, more women than men have availed of oncology services.
A barely decade-old government is doing what other sattadharis who held the reins of the nation for the better part of the century could not: It is visibilising women, it is nurturing nari shakti. By placing assets such as houses and LPGs in the hands of women, it is challenging the unequal status quo. It is doing so not only through policies but by bridging gendered data deficits.
The first nationwide Time Use Survey was carried out in 2019 shepherded by the National Statistical Office under the stewardship of the incumbent government. The Survey has finally put a number to the unpaid, unacknowledged sweat and toil of our jananis — 7.2 hours a day, that is approximately how much the average Indian woman devotes to caregiving and domestic services against the average Indian man’s 2.8 hours. The investigation of the implications and consequent policy corrections for the same has only been made possible by this Survey.
It is worthy to note that it was in 1998, conterminously with the farsighted Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance, that the TUS was first piloted across six Indian states; now, Time Use Surveys have found a prominent place in policy discourse and find mention in the global indicator framework of the United Nations-Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs).
As a routine source of crucial information on nutrition, fertility, family planning, reproductive, maternal and child health and mortality, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) is a barometer of India’s performance in securing equitable health outcomes, especially for women. The sampling strategy of NFHS-4 (2015-16) underwent a comprehensive, methodological renovation, statistically accounting for all districts in the nation, proving to be a colossal improvement over its predecessor NFHS-3’s (2005-06) nationally representative sample. Sub-national and district-level representativeness has prompted prioritised, targeted interventions to address healthcare challenges.
NFHS-4 for the first time recorded gender-disaggregated cancer prevalence. NFHS-5 for the first time recorded information on whether women had ever undergone a screening test for cancer of the oral cavity, breast, and cervix. Together, NFHS-4 and 5 provide a tour d’horizon of the health of the Indian woman and serve as an incomparable mine of data.
The statistical architecture of the nation as we knew it has been rebuilt to count women. The popular academic adage holds that “what gets counted counts”. This provides a scaffolding for resource allocation for policy-making. Recognising the same, quinquennial employment and unemployment data collected erstwhile by the National Sample Survey (NSS) were supplanted by quarterly and annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for timely gender-disaggregated labour force statistics. The PLFS now boasts of gender-disaggregated data such as Female Worker Population Ratio, Female Labour Force Participation Rate and Female Unemployment Rate.
Under the stewardship of the Ministry of Home Affairs, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) initiated the collection of data on female foeticide in 2014. Such despondent data points are bitter pills to swallow but in the spirit of quantification, the incumbent government has facilitated its collection and has swiftly acted upon its implications through the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign.
Quantification is a step towards resolution and rectification. The government is generating a plethora of gender-disaggregated data through either implementation-related statistics or through surveys and using them to inform or reform schemes, thus perpetuating a virtuous cycle. It is now the onus of individuals and groups in academia, research and evaluation consultancies to conduct audits and third-party assessments of such data to further mainstream gender in public policy for janhit.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘Gendered governance’. The writer is Union Minister for Women and Child Development
On June 9, 2011, when artist M F Husain passed away in London, he was miles away from his home, the land that he so fondly spoke about in all his conversations. Friends recall how much he had wanted to return home in the years before he passed away but the threat of violence that had driven him to a self-imposed exile in 2006, at the age of 90, also prevented him from returning.
Arguably, the most recognised modern Indian artist, the maverick faced the wrath of the right wing, which alleged that his depictions of Hindu deities had outraged the community’s religious sentiments. His home and exhibitions had been ransacked and he had received multiple death threats, apart from the numerous court cases registered against him.
The art community had stood by the nonagenarian but the state, perhaps, failed him. Since then, however, the limitations on artistic freedom of expression seem only to have grown.
Last week, when members of right-wing groups barged into Maharaja Sayajirao University’s Faculty of Fine Arts in Vadodara, Gujarat, they were on a specific hunt. They were looking for artworks they had apparently viewed on social media and found “distasteful and hurtful to religious sentiments”. One series reportedly featured cut-outs of gods and goddesses with newspaper reports of crimes against women, while another was a collage with the Ashoka pillar positioned in an “obscene manner”.
Resisting the break-in, the faculty and staff of the department argued that the exhibition was still to be opened for the public to view and the display was being finalised. Speaking to the media, the dean, Jayaram Poduval, denied that the frames were part of the evaluation submissions and said that there could be a conspiracy against the faculty. It was also emphasised that the 2007 resolution would have been followed, according to which all works would have been checked and approved before the opening of the annual exhibition. The “resolution” itself was passed after a case was registered against then M S University post-graduate student Srilamanthula Chandramohan for his alleged objectionable artworks.
In the recent instance, some of the defenders argued that the punishment was being meted out before a crime was committed but others raised a larger and more pertinent question: Should it at all be punishable to depict gods and goddesses? Isn’t all art open to interpretation and an artist entitled to conceptualise and create at free will?
Often, when this debate comes up, India is cited as the land of the Kamasutra and Khajuraho, associated with libidinous narratives in ancient India, and sceptics pronounce that it is unlikely that contemporary artists will have the same freedom as their ancestors. There can be no great art without experimentation but we are now restricting free thought and creativity when individuals are still learning the ropes. Art students are now being targeted within the confines of the university campus and even before letting them make an attempt, we are telling them they have failed. In 2019, Chennai’s Loyola College withdrew paintings that right-wing groups termed as “anti-Hindu” and “anti-India” and admitted to a lapse, regretting the “insurmountable hurt” caused.
The scare of a backlash is real. Inside closed doors, artists now admit to being over-cautious and fearful. In public spaces, meanwhile, they are wary of viewers who might deem their work offensive.
Artist Balbir Krishan, a double amputee, recalls being caught off-guard when in 2012, his exhibition celebrating homosexuality in Delhi was vandalised and he was beaten up. The art community, again, came together to support him but regrettably, that rarely has a definitive impact.
Public outrage does lead to conversations on the subject and an assertion of the need to protect artistic liberties, but the vandals often succeed in fulfilling their immediate endeavour of bringing down the work and the artist is left alone in the end.
Should artists then concede and accept overt censorship as fate? Though for a young artist it is difficult to match Husain’s might and courage, the veteran could be an inspiration. He defended his work for almost a decade before he left India.
For the sake of art and what it brings to society, it is integral to respect the fine line between freedom of expression and reasonable restrictions. Each artwork shares the vision of its creator and its purpose is beyond ornamental. Artists aspire to encourage conversations and seek to find unorthodox ways to question and provoke. Not everyone needs to be in agreement and differing opinions should be embraced, not condemned.
An artwork that appears to be problematic, might still be necessary.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘The caged artist’. Write to the author at vandana.kalra@expressindia.com
US President Joe Biden’s summit meeting with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian leaders this week in Washington, his travel to Seoul and Tokyo later in the month, and participation in the Quad leaders’ forum in the Japanese capital answer many important questions about the current US global strategy.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific. Put simply, can the US continue to balance China in Asia as Russia upends the European order?
The question is a legitimate one. After all, even the most powerful states find it hard to concentrate their resources in two distinct theatres. Biden’s answer is a definitive one — yes, the US can handle Russia in Europe and China in Asia. Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy. He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
Biden shared his predecessor Donald Trump’s assumptions that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat. That is one of the reasons Biden chose to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question. But Putin’s calculations led him in the other direction — towards a deeper strategic partnership with China. Putin and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced a partnership “without limits” and “no forbidden areas” just days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine. As the Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, Bill Burns told the Financial Times the other day, Xi’s China was the “biggest geopolitical challenge we face over the long-term as a country”, even though the threat from Putin’s Russia could not be underestimated. “(Putin) demonstrates in a very disturbing way that declining powers can be at least as disruptive as the rising ones,” Burns said.
Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months. The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false. If Putin is locked in a military conflict that he can neither win nor withdraw from, Xi has tied himself to the fading star, Putin. Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate. If the annexation of Taiwan must wait, Xi Jinping must also cope with the continuing pressures from the US on a range of issues — economic, political, and diplomatic.
This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge. While it was widely assumed that South East Asia was “lost” to Chinese dominance, Biden has said, “not so fast”.
In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea — he will be sworn in this week — has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington. The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
Biden’s trip to Seoul and Tokyo later this month is about consolidating the bilateral alliances with South Korea and Japan. The Tokyo summit of the Quad leaders — the third in barely 15 months — is about making the forum a critical element in the regional security architecture as well as boosting strategic ties with India.
Last year, it seemed China’s advance in the east was unstoppable and the American retrenchment was inevitable. Now the US is clawing back into the region. There have been setbacks to the US too: For example, the security pact between China and the Solomon Islands could lead to the PLA’s permanent military presence in the South Pacific. But, Washington is signaling that it is here to stay and ready to wrestle with multiple challenges in the region.
Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies. Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China. That leads to the second part of Biden’s answer to the question of dealing with the Russian and Chinese challenges at the same time.
Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. Quite early on in the Biden Administration’s tenure, national security adviser, Jake Sullivan emphasised the core principle of Biden’s strategy — “building a latticework of alliances and partnerships” around the world.
The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China. If Trump trashed US alliances as a political and fiscal burden, Biden has focused on empowering allies to achieve its broader strategic objectives.
Both Putin and Xi might have convinced themselves that the US alliances are falling apart amidst the deeper crisis within the West. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated NATO and the Western alliance across the Atlantic. In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific. Besides Britain, the US has also drawn Europe into making commitments for the Indo-Pacific that have endured despite the war in Ukraine.
Until recently, China was heaping scorn on the Quad and Indo-Pacific. Today, it is painting them as the greatest threat to regional and global security. China has no one to blame but its own hubris. Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony. India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India. If Xi does not like the Quad or other “small cliques”, he could simply return to a peaceful resolution of territorial disputes and restore normal ties with neighbours. That would at once take away the source of resurgent Asian alliances.
The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India. For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to cut some political slack for Delhi on the Russian question. This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia. The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow. The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘US and Asia after Ukraine’. The writer is senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, Delhi and contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
Last Friday, Sam Raimi officially marked his return to the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) with the release of Dr Strange and the Multiverse of Madness. It seems the MCU has finally come full circle with OG movie Spider-Man Tobey Maguire suiting up again late last year in Spider-Man: No Way Home, alongside Spidey 2 Andrew Garfield and the current web-slinger, Tom Holland. It was 20 years ago that we first heard the words, “with great power comes great responsibility” uttered in a movie theatre. It was in Spider-Man’s big-screen debut, helmed by Raimi.
At the time, nobody could have predicted the Marvel-dominated cinematic landscape that exists today, not even Marvel itself. In fact, in 2002, the comic book giant was slowly emerging from bankruptcy, with a new owner and diversified offerings. Spider-Man wasn’t even the first of its character to make it to the silver screen in Marvel’s renewed innings. That honour goes to the Men in Black franchise, followed by the Blade series, and then the X-Men. But none of these could do what Spider-Man’s maiden cinematic adventure did: Reinvent the summer blockbuster, gross over $100 million in a single weekend, and become the highest-grossing comic book movie of all time.
I was 16 when the movie came out, and while box office numbers meant little then (as now), I did register that there was something special going on on-screen as Maguire and William Dafoe battled it out. For many in their 30s, some of the earliest memories of television are of the 1981 animated series, Spider-Man and his Amazing Friends. Coupled with Batman and Superman cartoons, I was a confirmed fan of caped crusader antics from a young age. However, cinematic outings were almost exclusively a DC affair throughout my childhood. My father was a big fan of Christopher Reeves’ Superman films and I myself remember being excited about watching Joel Schumacher’s extremely “light” take on the Dark Knight.
This is also why, seven years later, I was blown away by Raimi’s take on Spidey. It had its funny moments of course, but it also had layers — pathos, tragedy, betrayal, intrigue. It wasn’t made for kids, it was made for adults. Until that point, many of us believed comic books and comic-book characters were a kiddy affair. But Spider-Man redefined what a superhero movie could be, beyond the campiness, beyond the larger-than-life sets and garish costumes. It redesigned the template for every single superhero movie that followed, from the gritty Batman reboots to wildly irreverent Deadpool romps to the never-ending Marvel super-franchise. It opened the door for graphic novel adaptations like Sin City and V For Vendetta and gave lesser-known comic book series like Kick-Ass and Kingsman a chance at Hollywood glory.
Perhaps most importantly, Raimi’s Spider-Man opened up the complete universe of comic books for me and many others. The possibilities were suddenly endless. If superhero movies weren’t just for kids, then maybe comic books also had more to offer? By the time I graduated fro, college, I had read the complete illustrated works of Frank Miller and Alan Moore, Neil Gaiman and Garth Ennis. I learned about the Silver Age and the Golden Age of Marvel and DC. I was introduced to Watchmen and the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. I discovered the original metaverse, with multiple incarnations and avatars of characters I had grown up reading and watching, with real-world problems like depression and alcoholism.
But I get ahead of myself. While all these revelations were a few years down the line, sitting in that audience, watching Tobey, Peter and Spidey come of age together in Far from Home, there was a sense of vindication. Maguire’s take on Peter Parker was so relatable to a nerdy misfit. It was easy to live vicariously through him. To imagine showing up the school bully the way he did. That core still reverberates throughout all of Marvel’s offerings even today, with its witty one-liners and everyday problems in the middle of grandiose universe-saving schemes. And while the format is getting old, it was so refreshing back in 2002.
It will be fun to see where the new Dr Strange movie takes the Marvel universe now, especially with Raimi helming it. Pure coincidence or a delicious twist of fate, only the comic book gods can tell. But as Raimi should know, more than anyone right now, with great power comes great responsibility.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 10, 2022 under the title ‘Spider-Man, the Everyman’. The writer is a Mumbai-based stand-up comic and Editor-in-Chief at Tinkle Comics
The impassioned outpourings of anger and dismay after a young boy with disabilities and his parents were not allowed to board a flight, were not just about the incident itself. Of course, in and of itself, a flight official behaving with such utter callousness with such a vulnerable part of the population, needs to be called out. But what that shameful incident at the Ranchi airport has proved all over again, if proof was indeed needed, was that this is no country for the disabled.
As parents of a youngster with autism, my husband and I have been at the receiving end of this kind of troubling behaviour not just at airports, but in every kind of public space that we have taken our son to. In the beginning, we would flinch. Every stare or comment used to be so hurtful that it would take all our energy to be brave enough for the next outing. This happened everywhere — in parks, on the road, in restaurants, movie halls and malls, because that was one of the things we were determined to do, once we had got over the initial sledgehammer blow of the diagnosis — our son would go everywhere we would, because that was his right.
It took us a long time to get to the point where we could take a deep breath, cover our lacerated skin, and leave the house with our good-looking but distinctly “different” boy, armed with the knowledge that all the strength in the world could crumble, and did, in the face of yet another inimical remark. From being told to leave a restaurant because he was “too noisy”, or have mothers take their children pointedly away in parks, or being accosted by a random stranger and asked with zero sensitivity: “Ye aisa pehle se thaa (was he always like this?)” — we’ve gone through the gamut. I remember rushing back home in tears, taking my lovely boy by his shoulders and shaking him: Why, why wouldn’t he speak? Why couldn’t he be like other kids?
The schools that we tried to get him to attend were another story altogether. We’ve had teachers and principals of some of the best schools in the capital turn us away, saying there was no place for “children like him”, because there were no teachers who were trained to handle such “difficulties”. A government official told us that “yeh bimaari toh west mein hoti hai (this illness is prevalent only in the Western countries) aap log itna shor kyon machaa rahein hain (why are you making so much fuss)”, when we had gone as part of a delegation of parents with special needs’ children, with yet another petition.
I will never forget the trauma we faced when we had to get a “disability certificate” for our son. For someone who has severe sensory difficulties, noise, light, crowds, anything out of their routine can be a trigger, and here we were, being sent round in circles, from one window to another, one “department” to another, dragging our tired, unhappy little boy by the arm. Finally, because we were both “media persons”, we managed to make a few calls, and find our way to a young doctor whose inexperience was galling: “Oh, he can’t do this? And he cannot do this also?” This, from a doctor at the best public hospital in the country. In the middle of all this, my son had his first seizure, and in that place, surrounded by some of the best medical brains in the country, I felt more bereft than I ever had before.
I joke, and yes, now I am able to, after so many years of being the mum of a special needs person, that behaviour is also a spectrum, just like my son’s diagnosis. Not every person comes off terrible; there are many who helpfully tell us about this “desi ilaaj (traditional cure)” or that, this shrine or that, this magic cure or that. We are lucky in our supportive family, and our friends like family who envelop us in warmth and care. But, as a family unit, interactions with the “normal” world are limited: Regular children go off on trajectories that we can only dream of, friends, sleepovers, school trips. Our children are left behind, in their special grooves. And we as parents also learn to live “special” lives, socialising separately, and yes, I’m aware of the irony in that phrase.
This Ranchi incident reminded me of a flight we had taken as a family, almost the last time we did such a thing. My husband had printed flyers about the autistic spectrum disorder, and spoken to as many co-passengers as he could, in case our youngster made “too much noise”. We somehow managed to get to the other side, but “ngl”, not gonna lie, as the millennials put it, it wasn’t easy.
Sure, with non-stop advocacy and awareness, things have changed for the better. But how long will it take for people to realise that we are all in this together? Silos are self-defeating. And it’s not just about that boy on the wheelchair and his parents: Don’t we all need wind beneath our wings?
Write to the author at shubhra.gupta@expressindia.com
Mahinda Rajapaksa’s resignation as Sri Lankan prime minister on a day which saw the protests against the Rajapaksa clan take a decisively violent turn leaves only president and Mahinda’s younger brother Gotabaya clinging precariously to his post. While Mahinda hoped his resignation would pave the way for a unity government, the opposition and protesters are unlikely to budge until Gotabaya also quits. The violent attacks by Rajapaksa supporters against the protesters has also worsened the situation.
Mahinda, the patriarch of the family, had enjoyed cult status in the island nation until the economic downturn for his strong leadership that brought down the curtains on three decades of LTTE-led violence in Sri Lanka. But the skyrocketing prices of essential commodities and severe shortages of fuel and foodstuffs combined with depleted forex reserves has knocked the bottom out of that support.
Read: Curfew in Sri Lanka after anti-govt protest in Colombo turns violent
With the opposition’s impeachment motion against president Gotabaya with the speaker, it remains to be seen if Parliament or the intensifying protests will decide his fate. What’s certain is that the opposition with its current strength is is no position to offer a cohesive government. With no end in sight to the impasse, a ruined Sri Lanka stares at a long rocky road to recovery.
After the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) increased the repo rate last week, there’s ground to make two assumptions. RBI’s inflation outlook, which forecast a declining trajectory in the subsequent quarters of the financial year, will be revised. Along with it, more repo rate increases are likely. These two widely held views will catalyse adjustments by all stakeholders in the economy. One way to gauge what lies ahead is to look at how the adjustments will play out through the intertwined savings and investments channels.
Household response to hardening interest rates will hugely influence both savings and investment. Not only are households the most important source of domestic savings, they are now also critical to deployment of bank credit as personal loans are almost on a par with industrial lending. Traditionally, household behaviour shows two features in a phase of high inflation. There’s a tilt at the margin towards saving in the form of gold. It was about 1.6% of household savings a decade ago when inflation was high. As inflation dropped, the saving in gold followed, to about 1.1% of savings. Also, net financial savings of households, which were about 32% of total savings in the high inflation phase, rose to around 40% when inflation fell.
There’s a new element which has come into play this time. Beginning October 2019, RBI has pushed the banking system into benchmarking lending rates to external measures such as repo rate. The system has transitioned fast in the case of loans to MSMEs, trade and home loans. In the process, bank deposit rates also adjust quickly. Therefore, household net financial savings this time may adjust quicker and their proportion to total household savings is likely to fall faster. There’s also the simultaneous lure of gold as a hedge against inflation, which has a knock-on effect on India’s current account deficit.
Investing in equity shares has emerged as an important avenue for household savings. Incremental growth in this avenue is likely to be influenced by movement in stock market indices. In this context, heightened uncertainty around inflation’s course may adversely impact investments by firms. There are also two options that will attract more personal saver attention – bank fixed deposits and insurance policies. These traditionally popular avenues which attract funds from the risk-averse even when interest rates are low, will almost surely see more incremental flows. Banks, flush with more funds, but with lending rates creeping up, will have new challenges.
The futility of using police to serve as an instrument of political vendetta should dawn on political parties after the unedifying confrontation last week between Punjab, Haryana and Delhi police. AAP’s resolve to punish Delhi BJP spokesperson Tajinder Bagga for his tweet against CM Arvind Kejriwal and BJP’s interest in freeing him played out in full public glare through the actions of the three police forces. But after Bagga’s detention in Haryana and repeated judicial setbacks, Punjab police have been left red-faced. Some days ago it was Assam police’s ignominious turn over the arrest of Jignesh Mevani from Gujarat.
Also, various state police forces seem to have thrown procedure and mutual organisational courtesy to the wind. Punjab police claim they arrested Bagga in Delhi after his non-response to repeated summons – but it is still the case that they simply drove into another jurisdiction, just as Assam police and UP police have done in the recent past. Criminal Procedure Code has safeguards like police requiring an arrest warrant from magistrates before effecting arrests and securing transit remand from a magistrate after arrests in another jurisdiction. Additional Delhi high court guidelines require cops from other jurisdictions effecting arrests to also intimate local police officers. While these norms allow for exceptions, following the procedures would have saved Punjab police the blushes.
Face-offs between police forces can be good news only for criminals who commit crimes spanning across state borders or escape into another state after committing a crime. Even terrorists stand to benefit if increasing inter-forces fractiousness were to impact coordination and intelligence sharing. Assuming India’s hyper-competitive politics and bitter, person-targeted political rhetoric will continue to intensify, and police will be frequently used to settle scores and make points, the near future frankly looks bleak. Worse may yet happen in standoffs between politics-driven state police forces.
The rupee is plumbing fresh lows despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) dipping into foreign exchange reserves to slow the descent. This was an expected fallout of capital flight, combined with the trade shock to an energy-importing country like India. How long the RBI proceeds on this course of action will depend on India's assessment of the prospects of conflict de-escalation, which are not very promising. Capital flight will impose a separate conditionality on the pace of interest-rate hikes. Last week, the RBI acted out of turn to manage the interest-rate differential with the US Federal Reserve. India has, over the course of a few weeks, lost considerable leeway in managing its interest and foreign exchange rates.
There are two textbook prescriptions in such situations. The first is to allow the rupee to find its level. Tightening monetary policy will temper inflation, slow growth and thus imports, pulling back trade into balance. The second approach is to push the exchange rate lower, advantaging exports and disadvantaging imports to bring trade into balance without inordinately compressing domestic output. This could also be achieved by letting the rupee find its own level. The two sets of interventions are self-reinforcing, although one uses monetary contraction while the other is expansionary.
India's policy response will most likely be somewhere in the middle, with interest-rate tightening slower than in the US and a managed depreciation of the rupee. Economic activity has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels and the scope of substituting energy imports is limited. There are also questions over whether a weakening rupee can aid merchandise exports in a slowing global economy. Especially if competing nations allow their currencies to depreciate more. India has a cushion in technology service exports. But there are limits to depleting its foreign exchange reserves. The RBI, however, now has a bigger toolkit to negotiate the economic trilemma of managing interest and forex rates with free capital movement.
( Originally published on May 10, 2022 )
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Valuating art in India is still an even more imprecise science than art valuation intrinsically is. Add to this the fact that auctions of works of art from this country continue to seek validation - and valuation - from abroad, with established international houses like Sotheby's, Christie's and Bonhams leading the pack. This is overwhelmingly due to India still being in the process of developing a mature critical culture that goes beyond curation and exhibition. The Art of India (AoI) 2022, one of India's largest art exhibitions that took place on April 12-15 (an exclusive preview happening on April 8-10) in Ahmedabad, will now be followed up with an auction on May 18-19. This 24-hour e-auction will, hopefully, change the landscape as 65 works of art go under the proverbial hammer.
A thriving art market has two prerequisites: one, a class of buyers who can afford objects that are given their value by the buyers themselves; two, a body of knowledge around these objects that adds value to them. The former India has aplenty. The latter includes artistic, historical, archival and market knowledge to inject artworks with value that goes beyond their 'intrinsic' price tag. For this, scholars and experts need to be very much part of this ecosystem.
Whether it is a Tagore or a Souza, or contemporary artists like Natraj Sharma and Manish Modi - unlike many exhibits today that do not provide even basic information like the work's date, size or medium - a serious auction must have these basic facts and much more for people to be interested, and then be interested enough to invest good money to possess a work. AoI 2022, along with auction house Saffronart, will create a benchmark next week that will bring additional value to beautiful, Indian assets.
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Even if you have no interest in perfumery, you may have noticed that many of the men who get into an elevator with you tend to smell the same. It is not the smell that we have traditionally associated with after shaves and men’s fragrances, but something heavier and almost overpowering. It is a smell that is sweet and woody but also, somewhat reminiscent of human or animistic secretions.
If you have some interest in perfumery then you will already know that there are many schools of fragrance. The one that dominates the world is the French school which accounts for nearly every fragrance you will find in the average duty-free shop.
But there is also an Indian school of fragrance. It depends on such ingredients as rose and sandalwood and creates sweeter and heavier fragrances than the French make. Fragrance has always been part of the Indian tradition but we often find ways of adding it to our lives in ways that do not depend on spraying liquid from bottles. Take, for instance, khus. Most of us have grown up with the smell but it has reached us in different way. In some Indian homes, doors and windows are covered in the summer by rough, grassy curtains of khus. As it gets hotter, we spray water on to the curtains. As the water evaporates, it not only cools the room but also fragrances it with the aroma of khus.
We like flowers, not just because they look pretty but because they add fragrance to our lives. A garland of mogra is as valued for its aroma as it is for its appearance.
The Arab school of perfumery is less concerned with fresh flowers and relies more on dry ingredients. For as long as anyone can remember, Arabs have loved oud (or oudh, both spellings are used interchangeably).
Oud is the fragrance you now smell on men in crowded lifts and it has spread out of Arabia to the rest of the world. And it has reached the modern Indian male bizarrely enough via Paris.
Oud is associated with Arab perfumery but it comes from India and the Far East. It is derived from the agarwood tree but, for oud to develop, the tree has to be infected with a particular fungus. The techniques of extracting oud from the tree have been known to man for centuries and one theory has it that it was originally an Indian ingredient that travelled to the Middle East.
Some people claim to have found references to Oud in the Vedas (it all comes down to how you translate and interpret each reference so let’s just say that this view is controversial) and it has been suggested that it is too much of a coincidence that both agarwood and our agarbatis are similarly named.
What we do know for certain is that Assam is a major source of oud (the Oud king of Assam Badruddin Ajmal is now a significant politician in the state) and Oud fragrances turn up all over India. Many years ago, I shot an episode of Custom Made with a traditional perfumer in Hyderabad. The perfumer threw blocks of agarwood into a fire and scented the room with oud while making me a fragrance. “It is such a strong fragrance,” he told me, admiring his own work, “that even if you have a bath, the smell will stay.”
And therein lies the problem. Much of Arab perfumery, and certainly the part that involves oud, is geared towards creating fragrances that last for very long. French perfumery, on the other hand, works on the assumption that you don’t want to wake up the next morning smelling as you did the night before. But in the Arab world, this is not undesirable and even in the old city of Hyderabad, the perfumer who made me my bespoke fragrance assured me that he had learnt the secrets of perfumery from Arab masters so that he could make fragrances that lasted for days.
Western perfumers have always known about oud but have stayed far away from it, regarding it as too strong for global tastes. Indian perfumery ingredients, on the other hand, have found much more favour. Sandalwood is the basis of many western fragrances and the French perfume industry has suffered since India banned the export of sandalwood. Jasmine and rose are often used in western perfumes though the great French perfumes tend to use a French jasmine (as in Chanel No. 5) or a Bulgarian rose.
Oud finally broke through and became popular in the early years of this century because of a combination of circumstances. First of all, Arabs were buying lots of perfume and they wanted something they liked. Secondly, the big fragrances companies invented inexpensive synthetic molecules that effectively captured some of the aroma of oud. And finally, the venerable French house of Yves Saint Laurent fell into the hands of a brash American, Tom Ford, who was willing to take risks.
Ford launched M7, a fragrance that used synthetic oud in 2003 and marketed it by exploiting the olfactory resemblance between the smell of oud and the aroma of sex.
It was a mass-market perfume and it failed in both the United States and Europe. But it showed that it could be done. And so, the French niche perfume houses began creating oud-based fragrances. It took a little time but these caught on so much that men’s fragrances, which had begun to smell like fresh laundry, suddenly took a different turn and became heavier and more aromatic.
As the trend towards heavier fragrances caught on, a section of the global market fell in love with the new oud fragrances. They sold very well in the Middle East and North Africa (no surprises there) and in India but sales began dropping the nearer you got to Japan or China.
Now, with the exception of the great prestige French houses (Chanel, Hermes, etc.) nearly every global perfume house has an oud fragrance in its line-up. It is not just niche houses either. Oud is mass-market and even mid- to down-market.
That’s why so many of the men you meet at parties or are stuck with in elevators tend to smell the same: They are wearing fragrances with synthetic oud molecules.
My own views on oud have evolved over the years. I used to like it because it had a dirty edge to it. A good perfumer would balance the dirty notes with other cleaner ones and create something sexy and mysterious.
Now, with the oud explosion, I find the vast majority of oud fragrances cheap and nasty. The emphasis is on strong smells and there is very little subtlety to the scent.
Even in the Gulf, say Dubai, real oud is hard to find. Almost every shop that sells so-called oud oil uses synthetic materials. This is not necessarily a bad thing unless they charge for real oud (which can be expensive) while using inexpensive synthetics.
If you want to experiment with oud, I would still recommend the original M7, which has stood the test of time and is a steady seller. You can find it at every duty-free store.
Within the niche perfumery segment, there is now an Indian option. Maison Fouzdar is an Indian house that makes many successful fragrances, several of which are based on oud. The ones I tried were strong enough to gladden the most enthusiastic Indian male. They are expensively packaged (for gifting purposes, I guess) and are available at most good niche perfume stores.
As for the larger question of whether you like oud, that is an individual decision. I find the warm mystery of the raw ingredient fascinating. My wife, on the other hand, loathes it.
So be discriminating. Don’t waste money on cheap oud fragrances. But, if you find a skilled perfumer, then oud will share its dark mysteries.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Europe last week, from May 2 to 4, for comprehensive discussions with Germany and the five Nordic nations. After that, on the way home, he paid a quick working visit to France, enabling him to convey his felicitations in person to recently re-elected President Emmanuel Macron.
Two common elements in his discussions with Germany and France were Ukraine and Afghanistan. All discussions covered climate change, sustainable development, innovation, digitalisation, green and clean growth, etc. The European Union, with a population of 500 million and 27 members, provides a huge trading, investment, and technology bloc, which is a natural partner for India. The desire for a multipolar world is mostly shared by the Europeans, although Ukraine forces them to reimagine a strong American security role.
Germany is demographically, with 80 million population, and economically the powerhouse of Europe. Its GDP places it at number one in Europe and fourth in the world. The Ukraine war exposed Germany’s strategic hesitation as it delayed heavy weapons’ transfers, though it did scrap the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project with Russia. As the current chair of the Group of Seven (G-7), Germany has slowly come abreast with the other members of the EU which were more forthright in opposing Russian aggression. France was also seen as soft on Russia as President Macron kept talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite his preoccupation with his own re-election. It is thus not surprising that in separate joint statements with India, Germany and France both reflected their positions, with varied emphasis.
Germany “reiterated its strong condemnation of the unlawful and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine by Russian forces”, while France merely “reiterated its condemnation”. India, of course, did not join the condemnation, strong or normal, but went on to jointly voice humanitarian concerns and the need for hostilities to end and dialogue and diplomacy to be resumed. That took care of the bear in the room and cleared the field for bilateral and plurilateral talks.
The trade between India and Germany is worth around $20 billion annually. But several new themes or redefined old themes can be seen now. There are several “Partnerships” listed, covering “Shared Values and Regional and Multilateral Interests”, “Green and Sustainable Development”, “Political and Academic Exchange, Scientific Cooperation, Mobility of Workforce and People” and, finally, “Global Health”.
On some, concrete action was initiated. Germany, with its demographic challenge and ageing population, needs skilled workers from abroad. A draft agreement was initialled on “Migration and Mobility”. This opens up avenues for the easy migration of skilled Indian workers. But the question arises how this synchronises with the “Atma Nirbhar Bharat” policy of the Modi government, which should be seeking to retain skilled citizens in India. The Chinese government does not market its skilled citizens.
The focus on climate change and renewables as well as the need to keep global warming within the 2º Celsius limit of the pre-industrial period base was prominent in the Prime Minister’s discussions with Germany, France and the five Nordic nations — Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland. Interestingly, four of the five PMs were women. With Germany, the new focus on “agroecology” is significant. This year’s early heatwave across India, having affected the wheat crop in Punjab, is a sign of adverse climate change-engendered events likely in future. Hence, the focus is welcome on the need to manage natural resources, the challenges facing the rural population and small-scale farmers.
The Indo-German meeting was the Sixth Round of Inter-Governmental Consultations, which allowed a comprehensive review of bilateral relations in an “all-of-government” approach. At the multilateral level, the two nations have been part of “Group of Four”, or G-4, for nearly two decades. Along with Brazil and Japan, they have sought the reform and expansion of the UN Security Council. The interest of Germany and Japan has fluctuated, depending on the leaders in power. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel favoured a less than all-or-nothing reform, unlike India. It was necessary for Mr Modi to decipher Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s views on it.
On Afghanistan, of greater interest to India, both Germany and France echoed the standard concern about humanitarian situation, the resurgence of violence, the curtailment of access of women and girls to education and the human rights abuses and terrorism. Both agreed to continue providing humanitarian assistance. Only in the Indo-German statement was the Iran factor introduced, without naming the country, by demanding the restoration of the nuclear deal that former US President Donald Trump had scrapped.
Germany, as the G-7 chair, invited Mr Modi to the June 26-28 meeting at Elmau in the Bavarian Alps. Much was made of this in the Indian media, but the Germans have also invited Indonesia, South Africa and Senegal, three other prominent democracies. It is speculated that Indonesia, as the current G-20 chair, will be urged to disinvite Russia for the next meeting. Although India could dodge the Ukraine issue this time, as the focus could was on bilateral matters, that may not be so at the G-7 outreach. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar has made much of India importing less oil from Russia in a month than Europe does in a day. Germany is set to change that. An European Union ban on all oil imports from Russia is likely before that meeting. Currently, Europe imports about 2.2 million barrels of oil per day and a quarter of Europe’s gas requirements from Russia. Last year Europe spent $150 billion, with $104 billion on oil and the rest on gas. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the surplus capacity to take that lag. But the question is will they, as they have strategically moved closer to the Iran-Russia-China axis. It may not stop the war, but would hamper the Russian war effort.
Joint statements broadly indicate the mutually perceived vision of future relations. The devil, as they say, is in the detail. The EU, especially Germany due to its automotive sector thrust, wants a Free Trade Agreement with India. India has not yet determined how to balance the opening of Indian markets against self-dependence. That the French companies withdrew from the latest submarine bid requiring Air Independent Propulsion technology to be shared shows reluctance to share cutting-edge technology. On the Rafale aircraft deal as well, it is unclear whether the Prime Minister’s intervention has helped or hindered technology sharing. The Anil Ambani episode was another distraction. High-profile visits may help, but fundamental interests prevail.
Union home minister Amit Shah, in providing an answer, has provoked a very powerful question about who is truly a national leader, and how to define or identify one. The answer by Mr Shah was obvious; there is only Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the current political firmament, and none else. But, if one asks a question beyond the political context of the answer, or the person answering it — undoubtedly the closest of allies of Mr Modi for the longest time in his career — it has deep value.
In the last century, in Indian political context, the one leader who would find near unimpeachable approval as a national leader was Mahatma Gandhi. His values were sustainable — spiritually, intellectually, politically, socially, economically and globally. Gandhism is a real living force. He viscerally understood every human being’s angst, brilliantly read the faultlines of society and conflict, and with his sustained actions was a living embodiment of his preaching. Above all, he succeeded in his life’s greatest aspiration, which was to achieve freedom for India.
Babasaheb Dr B.R. Ambedkar was the only other leader who could match a mahatma in stature, his teachings and vision, his actions and the sustained impact on Indian society. He suffered the pain of the most oppressed and gave us a Constitution which, no matter what its critics and naysayers might hold evident, has the power to show India a way to achieving social justice and a sense of equity.
Between Mahatma Gandhi and Dr Ambedkar, India had its greatest national leaders who also served as icons to inspire the next generation of leaders.
Since Independence, the shift in both the aspirations and expectations and the reality changed quickly because Indians now had power. They were leaders of political parties and could afford to strive for a part rather than the whole; appeal to a niche constituency and emerge regional leaders — without having to burden themselves with the aspiration of being a national leader; or even within a chosen area, a leader of all people but some.
Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi as prime ministers did appeal to people nationally, led their parties to victory in elections and scripted huge changes to lay stake to the claim to the title. Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel and Lal Bahadur Shastri had very little time to go on to achieve everything they could have.
In the darker days of Indira Gandhi, Jai Prakash Narayan (JP) emerged as the ray of hope and galvanised the country but faltered at the final step when the Opposition alliance government collapsed due to internal contradictions. Years later, V.P. Singh, first as a crusader and later as a reformer, promised a lot but stoked more fires than he doused. P.V. Narasimha Rao was an achiever as a reformer and administrator but hardly inspired confidence or won polls.
Atal Behari Vajpayee rose to deserve the tag, as a statesman, as a leader with a big heart who could appeal to the finer feelings of people across the political divide, while Lal Krishna Advani, coming a close second to everything Vajpayee, failed to match most of his peer’s achievements.
India was equally lucky to have had great leaders of the same DNA, grit, struggle and achievement, even if not at a pan Indian level, making a difference to states and regions.
Modi most certainly wins elections and gives confidence to a section of people but can he, or anyone else around currently, match the ability to heal, reconcile, unite and lead as a Gandhi, or Ambedkar, or even a Vajpayee — only time can decide.
The war in Ukraine poses a major crisis for the “political Christianity” of the West. How else would one explain the recent intervention of Pope Francis, who wields enormous influence as head of the Roman Catholic Church, despite the fact that the Vatican is no longer the custodian of temporal (worldly) power in the political arena. Was the Pope sending a message to the United States and the West, all of which are Christian-majority nations, though not necessarily professing a state religion?
Political empires and the papacy of course don’t sail in the same boat any longer, as was the case in the Middle Ages in Europe and some other times. But even today, if the Pope speaks on any global issue, particularly on inter-state conflict in Europe, the world is all ears.
What is one to make of the 85-year-old head of the Holy See proclaiming that “the real scandal of Putin’s war is Nato barking at Russia’s door”, which caused the Kremlin “react badly and unleash the conflict”? The Pope’s comments cannot be ignored or overlooked. The Holy Father deserves to be commended for his forthright, fair and frank views, going beyond the call of papal duty, to speak for mankind and try to transform negativity into positivity.
Since the widespread perception in the West and much of the world is that President Vladimir Putin is to blame for the current conflict, for launching the invasion of Ukraine and all that followed, natural justice demands that the points the Russian leader had raised are given due consideration before pronouncing verdict. What made Mr Putin do what he has done or is doing, which triggered the sanctions and other measures against his country? Has he lost his sense of judgment? This is what he had said: “Over the past 30 years we (Russians) have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the Nato countries on the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response… we have faced either cynical deception and lies or pressure and blackmail, while the Nato alliance has continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and approaching our borders.”
Mr Putin’s statement was on February 24. Pope Francis’ statement was on May 2, exactly 67 days after the beginning of hostilities in the heart of Europe, where in past centuries four fighting empires had met in battle: Vienna, Berlin, Moscow and Constantinople/Istanbul. Where all four had vied for political power, prestige, position, trade, territory and conquest — leading to ceaseless conflict.
Was the Pope then raising the flag for the US-led Nato alliance, and signalling them to resort to self-introspection, and chiding Moscow for its avoidable over-reaction?
The Pope’s point is piercing and poignant. It deserves a fresh look, for the possible fallout in the ecclesiastical as well as the temporal domain of political Christianity. Psychologically, the Pope appears distraught at the possible repeat of the European heartland’s white Christian versus white Christian conflagration escalating, imperilling the very existence of the West-led Christian world. From politics to the economy, from military to monetary domination, MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) looms large. For the first time since the Second World War, blood is oozing out of two Christian belligerents, with the entire political white Christians’ developed world punishing Christian Russia. It’s like seventeenth-century Thomas Hobbes’ Leviathan “war of all against all”.
Does it need revisiting past belligerents? The Germany of the two world wars, the Habsburgs’ Vienna and the Romanovs’ Moscow? Doesn’t the present scene resemble the age-old provocation-reaction-action history of warfare? In the same breath, isn’t the history of the Church too one of division and dispute? For that matter, can religions such as Islam and Hinduism claim a spanking clean record due to numerous intra-religious differences, disputes and discord? There wouldn’t have been centuries of conflict between Muslims and Muslims and Hindus versus Hindus all over. Religion, used for political dispute resolution or restitution, always took politics by storm, thus dragging the ecclesiastical, ethics-preaching priests into the vortex of violence and vitriolic virulence.
The history of endless intra-political Christian conflicts in Europe had led Nobel laureate Bertrand Russell to deliver his prophet-like verdict: “Unfortunately, as soon as Christians acquired political power, they turned their zeal against each other”. (A History of Western Philosophy) Russell’s twentieth century view was supplemented by the twenty-first century statement of another top Western scholar, Diarmaid MacCulloch, in his magnum opus A History of Christianity: “For most of its existence, Christianity has been the most intolerant of all faiths, doing its best to eliminate all competitors.”
The two European-origin world wars of the past century stand out as the direct and corroborative testimony to poignantly reveal, remind and reignite reality: the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict is proving the two great Western minds of Russell and MacCulloch as the best sample and example of their wisdom, which eventually compelled a deeply perturbed Pope Francis to come out of his ecclesiastical cloister to express his views and join the debate. The Church entered the State’s arena, despite the theoretical separation of powers between the two. The Holy See is well aware that despite Rome’s primacy, the Church stands divided today between East and West. Christianity, though born in the Middle East, went westwards after the rocky days of initiation towards Greece and Rome. Later, from the headquarters of the (Byzantine) Eastern Roman Empire of Constantinople, there emerged the Eastern Orthodox Church of Russian Christianity.
Like in matters ecclesiastical, Western Europe’s polity too was usually at odds with Moscow, and vice versa. This then was the hiatus in every issue between the nations of Western Europe and the labyrinth centred around the Moscow landmass, which saw both Napoleon and Hitler first losing their way, and then getting buried under their own power play. The two mega-invasions of Russia — by France (1812) and then Germany (1941), and now the 2022 reverse conflict — prove there is little hope for a permanent rapprochement between the Washington-Brussels alliance and Moscow any time soon. Despite Pope Francis’ open criticism of the West and his willingness to undertake a peace mission to Moscow, which indicates the Vatican is ready to try for a resolution and bridge the gap between the Holy See and the Russian Church at a critical juncture, the power elites and arms merchants on both sides are in no mood to give the Hand of God a chance.
The good news is Vladimir Putin, contrary to western anticipation about him escalating the Ukraine “Special military operation” with a declaration of a full-scale war, did not make any major announcement at the Victory Day parade at Red Square in Moscow on Monday. The bad news, of course, is that the Ukraine war will not end any time soon.
The much-anticipated tone of greater aggression on a Memorial Day to honour the braves who fought in World War II was missing but the Russian supremo did seek to justify the action against Ukraine by saying his troops were “defending the motherland” against “neo-Nazis”. The muted jubilation around what would usually be a celebration of victory over Hitler’s Germany is, perhaps, owed to the military’s underperformance.
The failures in war on the fronts of intelligence, command and tactics and unexpected heavy losses in terms of personnel — 25,000 troops, including many Generals, according to Ukraine’s combative Zelenskyy — and thousands of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, over 100 losses in flying machines and drones, besides nine ships, lead to the inescapable conclusion that this is not the feared Red Army of old that is fighting in Ukraine, be it in Mariupol, which is on the verge of being pummelled into submission, or the Donbas region in Russia’s recalibrated war objectives after Kyiv’s resistance.
Putin was, somewhat fancifully, blaming NATO and the west for the war saying they were intending to invade Russian territory (read Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014). The point is there seems no way out now for him after having committed the invasion, which is tragic considering what damage it has wrought on the Ukrainian people and on Russia's fighting forces too.
A world, nowhere nearer getting Putin to stop the war against Ukraine and NATO, as he termed today, will continue to suffer the economic consequences while symbolic visits as that of the US first lady Jill Biden offers solace to those like the Ukrainians who are the real victims of an unalloyed evil called war.