On February 28, 2022, the National Statistical Office (NSO) released India’s GDP data for Q3 of 2021-22 along with Second Advance Estimates (SAE) for 2021-22. Post COVID-19, the normalisation of the Indian economy has now been disturbed by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Growth performance
In the COVID-19 year of 2020-21, both real GDP and GVA contracted by minus 6.6% and minus 4.8%, respectively. The NSO’s SAE show that real GDP and GVA growth are estimated to recover to 8.9% and 8.3%, respectively, in 2021-22. Despite this improvement, the magnitude of real GDP at Rs. 147.7 lakh crore in 2021-22 is only marginally higher than the corresponding level of Rs. 145.2 lakh crore in 2019-20. The NSO’s GDP data highlights that in 2021-22, the nominal GDP growth at 19.4% is significantly higher than the real GDP growth due to an inordinately high implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation rate of 9.6%. Monetary policy authorities need to take note of this.
The magnitudes of all demand components in 2021-22 have surpassed their corresponding levels in 2019-20. However, the growth of consumption and investment demand — as measured by private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in 2021-22 over 2019-20 is only 1.2% and 2.6%, respectively, suggesting sluggish revival in domestic demand. On the output side, the 2021-22 magnitude of the trade, transportet.al sector, which has many contact-intensive segments, has remained below its corresponding level in 2019-20 by Rs. 2.9 lakh crore. Growth in the construction sector in 2021-22 was at only 1.9% over 2019-20.
On a quarterly basis, both GDP and GVA show normalising growth with waning base effects. Real GDP growth moderated from 20.3% in Q1 to 5.4% in Q3 of 2021-22. Similarly, real GVA growth also fell from 18.4% to 4.7% over this period. The implied Q4 GDP and GVA growth rates are estimated to be even lower at 4.8% and 4.1%, respectively. Thus, without a base effect, quarterly growth performance appears to be averaging at less than 5%. Assuming some base effects to continue in the first two quarters, the annual growth in 2022-23 may not be more than 7%. Even this may not be realised due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict.
Crude upsurge impact
It is difficult to arrive at precise estimates of the impact of the increase in global crude prices, but some idea can be provided using the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s recent estimates (2021) of the growth and inflation effects of an increase of U.S.$10/bbl.,ceteris paribus . The estimated impact is a reduction in real GDP growth by 27 basis points and an increase in CPI inflation by 40 basis points. This is based on using the baseline global crude price level of U.S.$75/bbl. For the full year of 2022-23, we may consider an average global crude price of U.S.$100/bbl. as a benchmark, although in the short run, it has already surged to U.S.$123.21/bbl. (average Brent crude price for the week ending March 7, 2022). An increase of U.S.$25/bbl. from the baseline price of U.S.$75/bbl. would lead to an estimated reduction in growth of 0.7% points and an increase in inflation of nearly 1% point. With reference to baseline growth for 2022-23 at 7% and CPI inflation at 5%, the revised levels of these may be put at 6.3% and 6%, respectively, due to the impact of crude price upsurge by an assumed margin of U.S.$25/bbl. through the year. The impact would be much larger if the margin of increase is enhanced. If the prices of other imported commodities also increase, the inflation impact will be higher.
Other challenges
In regard to fiscal implications, reference may be made to the budgeted nominal GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 at 11.1%. Assuming a revised real growth component of 6.3% and an IPD-based inflation component of 6.5%, which may be slightly higher than the corresponding CPI inflation, we may have a revised nominal GDP growth close to 13.0%. Applying on this, a tax buoyancy of 1, the resultant Centre’s gross tax revenues (GTR) would be higher than the budgeted magnitude of Rs. 27.6 lakh crore by a margin of about Rs. 3.2 lakh crore. Alongside, there would also be increases in some components of expenditures linked to prices of petroleum products, including petroleum and fertilizer subsidies. The Government should attempt to keep the fiscal deficit at the budgeted level.
Other economic challenges emanating from global uncertainties may include a worsening of the current account balance due to higher import bills with a depreciating rupee. A study by the RBI in 2019 had estimated an increase in the current account deficit (CAD) following a U.S.$10/bbl. increase in global crude price, to be nearly 0.4% points of GDP. Thus, for an increase of U.S.$25/bbl. in global crude prices, the CAD may increase by 1% point of GDP. The RBI Professional Forecasters Survey’s median estimate of CAD at 1.9% of GDP for 2022-23 may have to be revised upwards to 2.9%.
There would also be some sectoral supply-side bottlenecks and cost escalation. Sectors that draw heavily on petroleum products, such as fertilizers, iron and steel foundries, transportation, construction and coal, would be adversely affected. Due to the discontinuation of transactions through SWIFT, there would be some disruption in trade to and from Russia and Ukraine. However, the respective shares of imports and exports from these countries relative to India’s overall imports and exports are limited. There would also be some adverse effects with regard to financial flows. Net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) outflows during October to December 2021 increased to U.S.$6.3 billion. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have also been falling during this period although they have remained positive.
Policymakers may have to exercise a critical choice regarding who bears the burden of higher prices of petroleum products in India among consumers and industrial users, oil marketing companies and the Government. If the oil marketing companies are not allowed to raise prices of petroleum products, the bill for oil sector-linked subsidies would go up. If the central and State governments reduce excise duty and value-added tax (VAT) on petroleum products, their tax revenues would be adversely affected. If, on the other hand, the burden of higher prices is largely passed on to the consumers and industrial users, the already weak investment and private consumption would suffer further. If growth is to be revived, maximum attention should be paid to supporting consumption growth and reducing the cost of industrial inputs with a view to improving capacity utilisation. The Government may have to strike an appropriate balance among these options.
As developed countries are being forced to raise their interest rates and inflationary pressures continue to mount in India and abroad, the RBI may find it advisable to raise the policy rate with a view to stemming inflationary pressures and outward flow of the U.S. dollar even as the growth objective would be served by fiscal policy initiatives.
C. Rangarajan is former Chairman, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and former Governor, Reserve Bank of India. D.K. Srivastava is former Director and Honorary Professor, Madras School of Economics. The views expressed
are personal
“When the wind of change blows, some build walls, while others build windmills.” In his speech during the plenary session on ‘The Global Impact of China’s Economic Transformation’, Li Keqiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China lobbed this idea of facing volatile economic situations. He was speaking at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2015.
Evident in the numbers
Since then turbulent winds have blown in the form of trade wars and the COVID-19 crisis, and China has perhaps created more windmills. In 2020, when other economies were struggling to cope with the effects of the novel coronavirus pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, registering an increase from the previous year. According to official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy grew by 8.1% in 2021, aided by growth in industrial production. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter was 4%, faster than the 3.6% forecast by a Reuters poll. Industrial production rose by 4.3% in December 2021 compared to 2020. Fixed asset investment for 2021 grew by 4.9%, surpassing expectations of 4.8% growth. Investment in manufacturing grew by 13.5% in 2021 from a year ago, with that in special purpose machinery rising the most — up by 24.3% on a year-on-year basis. In 2021, overall retail sales grew by 12.5% from the prior year’s contraction, and also bettered the levels in 2019. China’s gross domestic product grew by 2.2% in 2020 from the previous year, according to media reports.
No ‘de-factorisation’
The discourse that emerged in 2021 was that a cocktail of COVID-19, geopolitical tensions and high tariffs would move factories away from the so-called ‘world’s factory’. There was expectation that the $4 trillion worth of manufacturing which is happening in China (which is more than the GDP of India), would get dispersed to new locations. The epicentre would shift to new settings and the scramble for a share in the manufacturing pie could result in the rise of the rest. Even a small share could yield benefits for other emerging economies as China accounts for about 30% of global manufacturing (equal to that of the United States, Japan and Germany put together). This could also open up new avenues for trade for them as China was the world’s biggest exporter in 2020-21, accounting for 13% of world exports and 18% of world market capitalisation. While the rest of the world debated and waited for the next mega trend that was to come, ‘the de-factorisation of China’, the Chinese economy seems to have recovered from a short-lived pandemic blip.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping flagged the idea of ‘dual circulation’, two elements of the strategy were clear. First, there would be more reliance on ‘internal circulation’, which is the domestic cycle of production, distribution and consumption supported by innovation and upgrading in the economy. This was identified as the route for development. Second, the ‘external circulation’ intended to hasten the process of surplus accumulation would lose its primacy over time and only play a supplemental role. The centrepiece of this strategy was that China would continue its emphasis on industrialisation and cut its dependence on global trade and markets. The two circuits are expected to complement each other.
It’s ‘advanced manufacturing’
Quite contrary to the conventional linear models of growth through industrialisation was the significance of manufacturing fading overtime and services rising to predominance; China is stimulating overall growth by catalysing the industrial sector, pursuing a radical shift in its approach. China is using its increasingly skilled labour force and strategic raw materials to enhance its already highly developed manufacturing capabilities. This is pushing industrialisation toward ‘advanced manufacturing’ and higher levels of automation, which have been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). The effect of such a strategy is that Chinese manufacturing is moving toward a new kind of predominance in growing sectors that are less exposed to lower cost competition. These are the high-tech production sectors, which demand sophistication and reliability along with cost efficiency.
As traditional Chinese industries confront rising labour costs due to demographic changes, a widespread application of AI has emerged as an alternative to reduce operational costs and enhance efficiency. The result is a slow but drastic transformation of China’s factories — from sweatshops to shop floors of the fourth Industrial Revolution through digitising and automation. The recent economic recovery has been aided by a massive adoption of artificial intelligence. China has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications and had overtaken the U.S. in 2014. It has also surpassed the U.S. in terms of the number of AI research publications and journal citations, according to a media report.
The manufacturing sector in China is witnessing a wave of automation and AI infusion across sectors. During the pandemic there has been a surge in the use of a combination of software, hardware and robotics. Interestingly it is not just start-ups that are leading this; even established market leaders are also increasing the uptake of AI. For example, the Hangzhou-based EP Equipment, a nearly 30-year-old manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts, has launched autonomous models that are able to manoeuvre themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. The Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years of experience, has come out with a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities, says a media report. The increased role of robots and AI in manufacturing is slowly spreading to design, delivery and even marketing. The net effect of it is that total costs would eventually be reduced to a small increment over the cost of materials.
In the post-pandemic era, China is positioning itself in the forefront in manifesting an unprecedented change in industrialisation. It might take years for the rest of the emerging economies to shift gears to move to such a phase of industrial production. As an early mover, ‘China is laying the groundwork for setting itself up to be a leader’. There seems to be a realisation that not only how much an economy manufactures but also how adroitly it does it matters in the new era. It looks like the dividends are already evident in the GDP numbers.
M. Suresh Babu is professor of economics at IIT Madras. The views expressed
are personal
In January 1547, Russia was in the depth of a harsh winter. Lakes and rivers were frozen and visibility was low with raging snowstorms. Yet, inside the Cathedral in Kremlin, there was a blaze of lights and warmth. Oriental splendour put Russian orthodox rituals on sensorial steroids. It was the coronation of 16-year-old Ivan as the autocrat of Russia. If anyone thought the boy could be easily manipulated, they were wrong. To restore the economy of one of the largest landmasses in the world, Ivan unleashed a reign of terror against anyone who went against him. A painful nerve ailment in his spine gave him moments of rage that made him Ivan the Terrible. He first quickly conquered the Caucasus (including present-day Georgia) and then went on to occupy what is today Ukraine.
So, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to invade Ukraine seems to have been Russia’s strategy for more than 400 years. Ukraine and Russia share the same patron Saint. They spell it differently just as they see their history differently. Russia has always seen and will perhaps continue to see Ukraine as its own. When Ukraine began to achieve greater autonomy in the 1950s, it was an aberration — Nikita Khrushchev, the then Russian leader, had spent his formative years working in Ukraine.
A brief history of Russia
History repeats itself for those who are condemned to ignore it. The world needs to read Russia’s history to understand why Mr. Putin is doing what he is. For, any Russian leader who is under pressure will only do this. Khrushchev or Mikhail Gorbachev were the only exceptions.
Mr. Putin’s inspirations must not only be Ivan but the greatest of the Romanov Tsars who is feted even today — Peter the Great. From the stories of Ivan, Peter the Great, and the other Tsars of the past, we can get a consistent pattern of how a Russian leader is likely to respond to a crisis.
Ivan’s death brought more confusion and chaos in Russia. Again, on a freezing day during winter in February 1613, another 16-year-old boy, Mikhail, was selected as the first of the Romanov kings. His family would rule for about 300 years. The last Romanov Nicholas II and his family were assassinated in the early hours of July 17, 1918.
Among the 18 Romanov kings who ruled, the famous ones who are remembered to have created an impact in the country share a common pattern. The ones who failed and those who were unsuccessful in taking power also share a common pattern. Perhaps this is true elsewhere but it surely is true in Russia and can help us understand the current President.
Between the first Romanov and the fifth there was a lot of trouble, mainly with Russian occupation of what is modern-day Ukraine and the wars with Poland. Russian autocracy and armies ensured victory though there was always tension. Peter the Great was the Tsar who Mr. Putin probably identifies with the most. If today we see images of Mr. Putin showing off his rock-hard abs and swimming in freezing waters, history books tell us how Peter could bend an iron rod into knots. At a height of seven feet with a proportionate build, Peter must have been a magnetic personality. He had an iron constitution to match – endless bouts of drinking had no effect on his liver and he pushed himself to move out of the comfort zone, live a life incognito in Europe and learn everything there from carpentry to administration. Peter’s ambition was to gain access to the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea for Russian maritime trade — a relevant reason for Mr. Putin to invade Ukraine today as well. He used the same strategy as he did for Europeanising Russia. Whether it was prohibiting men to have beards or conquering land, Peter was ruthless, swift and forceful. If Mr. Putin today speaks with military tanks, Peter did that with his gigantic personality and the bayonet. He had no compunction in killing his own son to justify his dream of modernising Russia.
The only other ruler to be recognised as ‘great’ was Catherine, Russia’s longest ruling queen. Catherine came to Russia as a 15-year-old lonely girl to wed the heir. Her husband proved no match for her ambitions and in 1762, after a coup and his death, she became queen. Her period was one of enlightenment. With her careful policy, she walked the tightrope of reforming Russia and still being in power. She pushed further west and fulfilled the Russian dream of occupying much of Sweden and all of far-eastern Europe including Ukraine.
A succession of less powerful Tsars navigated Russia into the age of colonisation and industrialisation. It was still not easy to conquer Russia. Napoleon’s observation of how Russia reacts with “Asiatic Scythian ruthlessness and determination that surfaces in the Russian character at times of threat and crisis” is valid today as the United Nations watches Russia silently.
Successors swung between implementing reforms and increasing the pace of industrialisation to undoing all of it and taking Russia two steps back. The old pattern of quelling any dissenting opinion with ruthless force that Napoleon saw continued. It happened elsewhere in Europe too, but not so brutally and certainly not to fellow subjects (as opposed to natives in the colonies). The last Romanov inherited Russia at a time when it was far outranked by other European powers. A gentle family man, he was the right person in the wrong place. The Second World War engulfed Europe, and Russia, though ill prepared, joined. Disaster after disaster forced Nicholas to blunder by taking over personal control of the army and leaving his anxious wife to administer the capital. He followed the old Russian Tsarist way of dealing with a crisis, but sadly, his personality was not like his predecessors. Every successive defeat was blamed on him and the unprepared communists found it easy to take over power and end the monarchy.
Russian psyche
What patterns can we see from the Russian past, including its period of communist rule? In times of crisis, Russian leaders have tended to seek oppressive control instead of peace talks. Today, it is unlikely that Mr. Putin will make concessions during talks. Russia’s expansion westwards will always exist; this war is no surprise. It is likely that other states along the Baltic and Black Sea will see a threat to their sovereignty. In all the past Russian conquests, we have never heard their side and this will likely not change. Contexts have changed, but the psyche of Russian leaders seems to remain the same. Economic dependence of the world today has only made it more important for leaders to learn to accept Russia the way it is and deal with it rather than expecting it to change. Wars such as the one Mr. Putin is fighting may be an exception. If he is prevented now, the war will continue in the new military theatre of our times, which is the economy and not the battlefield. If the West comes out in full support to balance Ukraine and its neighbours, which will soon be similarly threatened, perhaps Russia may resort to other forms of control. But given the supply of Russian gas, that seems unlikely as it has been in the past when the world looked the other way when Russia controlled the countries along its western border.
Pradeep Chakravarthy is a historian and author of ‘Leadership Shastra’
In the 21st century, on the European continent, bombs are again killing children, women and destroying civilian infrastructure. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to unleash an unprovoked, illegal aggression against a sovereign country. In violation of Russia’s international commitments, of international law and the United Nations Charter.
Putin must pay heed
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted on March 2 the resolution on ‘Aggression against Ukraine’, by an overwhelming majority of 141 in favour to five against, with 35 abstentions. The UNGA issued a resounding condemnation of President Putin’s illegal and unprovoked attacks on a free and sovereign state. The UNGA has been speaking loud and clear in defence of the values and principles enshrined in the UN Charter. Russia must stop and withdraw all military forces from the entire territory of Ukraine – immediately, completely and unconditionally. The International Court of Justice on March 16 also ordered Russia to suspend its military operation in Ukraine. President Putin must heed this clear decision from the international community.
Across Ukraine, we see the destruction caused by the Russian military, including indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets. An Indian student lost his life in Kharkiv on March 1 due to indiscriminate Russian shelling. A children’s hospital and its maternity ward were bombed in Mariupol on March 9. In the past few days, a theatre and an art school sheltering civilians and children were bombed by Russian forces in Mariupol. Hundreds of civilians have died and more than three million people have fled the violence. The European Union (EU), its member states and citizens are offering shelter and support to all those fleeing the violence.
The EU together with its friends and partners worked hard to avert this war and pursue the path of diplomacy. There was no threat emanating from Ukraine. President Putin chose to unleash a fully-fledged war, violating the most basic principles of international law and all agreements underpinning Europe’s security.
The Kremlin underestimated the resistance of the people of Ukraine. Ukraine has resisted despite the overwhelming number of Russian forces and the outrageous escalating tactics that the Kremlin has chosen.
The EU has shown unity and taken steps with real bite. From the start of the war, we have worked to support Ukraine and condemn President Putin’s actions. We reject a world where ‘might makes right’. We have adopted unprecedented sanctions, targeting the sectors that are key in financing this war. The list of Russian individuals sanctioned include President Putin and Minister Sergey Lavrov as well as top oligarchs, political and military figures who have responsibility for the aggression. In addition, we have cut off the most significant Russian banks from the SWIFT system and frozen all transactions with the Russian Central Bank. EU member states have closed their airspace to Russian aircraft. The EU has decided to reduce drastically its energy dependency, phase out Russian gas, oil and coal and to bolster our defence capabilities. These sanctions will come at a cost for our economy, but investments today will make us more independent tomorrow. We are taking these measures to isolate further Russia and drain the resources to fund this war. Russia cannot grossly violate international law and at the same time expect to benefit from the privileges of being part of the international economic order. The international community shall stand united to stop President Putin’s war machine.
We will also continue to fight the Kremlin’s disinformation, including the fake narrative about NATO as a threat to Russia. There was no enlargement process going on for Ukraine. There were no NATO weapons in Ukraine, no provocation. The aggressor tries to pose as a victim but the facts speak for themselves: death and destruction upon defenceless civilians in Ukraine.
Ukraine has been attacked and is defending itself. The EU has therefore decided to support Ukraine financially and supply it also with military equipment and platforms, for the first time in the history of the EU.
A watershed moment
We have to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin to stop this war. We do not know when or how this conflict will end. We want Russia to come back to reason so that peace can be re-established. This is a watershed moment. Repercussions will have a global impact and the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out. The EU will stand for the rule of law against the rule of the gun. The international community as a whole has to stand for a rules-based order and shall prevail against the dark vision of a world of naked brutality.
Ugo Astuto is Ambassador of the European Union to India. This article is co-signed by the Ambassadors and High Commissioners of the 27 EU Member States
Nearly two years have passed since the term of Bengaluru’s civic body, Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), ended and bureaucrats took over. But elections are nowhere in sight for the civic body, even as political parties are getting all set for the Assembly polls. A petition by former Congress councillors seeking directions to the State government to hold civic polls is pending before the Supreme Court. Though the ruling BJP claims elections have been delayed only to bring in governance reforms, the BBMP Act, 2020, a dedicated law for the city’s governance, has been criticised for doing “too little.”
There are allegations that the civic polls have been deliberately delayed to further strengthen the MLAs, who, in the absence of an elected civic body, have been calling the shots in Bengaluru. The new Act, for instance, provides for an advisory committee led by MLAs at the Assembly constituency level, which many fear will only institutionalise the control MLAs have over Bengaluru, in contravention to the spirit of the 74th Amendment.
With a population of over 1.35 crore, Bengaluru contributes 12.5% of the seats in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly, followed by four tier-two cities with a population of not more than a million. In a State afflicted by a poor geo-spatial distribution of economic centres, the city contributes over 60% of Karnataka’s revenue annually. The fight to control the State capital is fierce.
For nearly a decade, Bengaluru Development, which was carved out of the Urban Development Department, has had a dedicated minister. It is a coveted post that has always been a platform for rivalry. Ever since the BJP came to power in 2019, the contest between city ministers to hold charge of Bengaluru Development has led to so much infighting that two Chief Ministers — B. S. Yediyurappa and the incumbent Basavaraj Bommai — who are not from the city, have held the portfolio themselves. Holding both Finance and Bengaluru Development portfolios, Mr. Bommai has an iron grip over the State’s finances. Despite this, there is constant one-upmanship between two city Ministers and former Deputy Chief Ministers, R. Ashok and Dr. C. N. Ashwath Narayan. Both Vokkaligas, the two have been at loggerheads over Bengaluru and to emerge as the Vokkaliga face of the BJP.
Meanwhile, there are also new voices who say that they can change the tenor of politics in a city which still follows old-style politics, dominated by caste and real estate lobbies. Buoyant from its victory in Punjab, the AAP, which has failed to make any electoral impact, is confident of getting a toe into the BBMP “whenever civic polls are held.” However, there is no indication of when that will happen. While on record, the BJP claims it will be “at the earliest” subject to the Court’s decision, sources say it is unlikely to be held before the Assembly elections. With multiple candidates vying for a ticket in most wards, holding civic polls will antagonise those sidelined, which in turn will threaten the party’s prospects in the elections, sources say. MLAs, too, are lobbying hard to hold the civic polls later. The assumption is that in such a scenario, all aspirants will compete with each other to work for the benefit of the party.
Mr. Bommai has denied that the BJP may want to bring forward the Assembly polls to this year after its poor performance in the urban local body polls, so that they coincide with the Assembly elections in Gujarat. If the elections are held as per schedule, then elections to the local bodies (BBMP and Taluk and Zila Panchayats) are likely to be delayed till at least mid-next year.
Over the last two decades, Bengaluru has been witness to vibrant civic activism with participants demanding the implementation of the 74th Amendment to the Constitution. But their calls for true change have had little impact so far.
adhitya.bharadwaj@thehindu.co.in
On Tuesday, after possibly the longest pause, of 137 days, in India’s retail fuel prices in recent years, oil marketing companies raised petrol and diesel prices by about 80 paise a litre, following up with a similar increase on Wednesday. A Rs. 50 hike was also effected in domestic cooking gas prices. Fuel prices were last tweaked in November 2021, following the Deepavali-eve cut in petrol and diesel excise duties. The interregnum between then and now, coinciding with the five Assembly election battles, also witnessed the sharpest spike in global crude oil prices among recent instances of price freezes in India’s ‘deregulated’ petroleum products market. From around $73 a barrel on November 4, crude prices are now around $110 after shooting past $130, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ordinarily, oil marketing companies reset retail prices daily, based on an average of the previous 15 days’ global prices for their preferred basket of crude. The Government has distanced itself from fuel pricing decisions, asserting there was no official directive to keep prices down. There is no evidence that oil firms had built up such large strategic reserves at earlier prices that they did not need to react to an over 50% cost surge for a commodity whose demand is met largely through imports. That price hikes, in small doses, have begun only after government formation in poll-bound States, makes it abundantly clear that a nudge and a wink from the majority owner of the state-run oil players had goaded them into swallowing higher costs, compelling private players to follow suit to compete.
Holding free market prices hostage to electoral politics, deployed ever so often in recent years, including the last time these five States went to the polls and the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign, is politically unfair, economically untenable and reflects an extremely cynical state machinery deployment tactic. That bulk diesel prices have been raised by Rs. 25 per litre to Rs. 122, indicates that several more hikes are in the offing to close the gap between costs and pump prices. Inflation, already above the comfort level, may rise further and the Government may intervene with more duty cuts at some point. But there are larger red flags to fret about. No sane global investor will bid for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, for instance, if pricing freedom is effectively curtailed after an Election Commission of India (ECI) briefing. This practice warrants wider consternation, not only because it undermines a level-playing electoral field in favour of the ruling dispensation but also opens the door for more such creeping diktats or deviations from policy positions for temporary gains in voter perceptions. Just as mysterious fuel pricing decisions have become par for the course, other transient departures from stated policy can also become governance habits. While governments are obviously tempted to create optics of benevolence towards the common voter, the ECI needs to rise up to take a firm stand on reversals or deferrals of routine decisions in poll season.
Athletes rarely retire in their prime, not when they are numero uno in the sport. Tennis star Ash Barty’s sudden announcement that she is quitting the game, at just 25, less than two months after she won the Australian Open and extended her hold on the top ranking, has triggered shock waves within the tennis fraternity. For Australia, Barty was more than a tennis champion, she is also a symbol of inclusivity because of her indigenous ancestral roots. Aesthetics and grace defined her and tennis could not have asked for a better ambassador. But fatigue and a loss of motivation derailed her. Earlier, Naomi Osaka had spoken about dealing with depression and taken a break from the sport while still in great form. At the other end of the spectrum, the legendary Rafael Nadal seemed ready to fight off age and injuries. But, even his indomitable will must submit to the demands of his body, and he is now ruled out for four to six weeks following a rib injury. His great rival Roger Federer is keen to extend his career into his forties. But he will have to cope with the slow recovery from knee surgeries. The real surprise is when the athletes feel low on motivation even when they are in great shape physically, and in fine form with their game. In the early eighties, Bjorn Borg, like Barty, retired in his mid-twenties after tiring of the game mentally. Although Borg and Barty shocked the world with their retirement decisions, they are not the exceptions in the world of sports: Nadal and Federer are, as they push their body to extraordinary exertion.
Sport can often juxtapose opposites, blending pulsating adrenaline with mind-numbing tiredness. Be it a triumph or a debilitating loss, it is played out in the open and it ushers in gargantuan expectations and immense pressure. Away from the limelight, the sportsperson has to deal with frenetic travel, cobwebs of the mind, sore limbs, and relentless scrutiny. The money and the perks may be good but a heavy price is often paid. With sport having become a commercial engine drawing top dollar, the athlete has to play all through the year. The off-season, when rest and recuperation could be indulged in, no longer exists. Barty’s retirement, which seems permanent unlike the break she took in 2014, may not be the last exit. Unless sports administrators show empathy, more sportspersons will seek an early closure. Borg attempted a feeble comeback in the nineties; whether Barty will return remains a matter of conjecture. For now, the shock is real, and tennis is poorer.
Washington, March 23: After a 49-year struggle, American women have at last won Congressional endorsement of a Constitution amendment which would give them absolute equality with men before the law. The Senate yesterday approved the historic equal rights amendment by an overwhelming majority of 84 to eight. The Lower House having already voted passage (a two-thirds majority in each chamber was needed) the measure now goes to the States for ratification. Thirty-eight of the 50 States have to ratify it within the next seven years in order to make it the 27th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, but this is expected to be achieved well within that time. A key paragraph in the amendment says that “equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the U.S. or by any of the States on account of sex”. The amendment bestows new rights and responsibilities on women, but American feminist organisations themselves had wanted both the good and the bad which went with equal rights. The amendment wipes out laws limiting the type of jobs women may take, eliminates those which restrict women’s right to handle property and start businesses in an equal basis with men, ends discriminatory practices in the matter of hirings and promotions in some States and local governments and in educational institutions and ensures equal punishment for certain types of crimes.
After keeping prices on hold since November last year, retail prices of petrol and diesel were raised on Wednesday by Rs 0.80 for the second straight day. However, considering that global crude oil prices have surged over the past few months — according to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, the price of the Indian crude oil basket stood at $113 in the third week of March, up from $80.64 in November — retail fuel prices will need to be hiked considerably to bring them in line with global market prices. As per Crisil, with crude oil having averaged around $100 in the ongoing quarter, retail prices of petrol and diesel would need to be increased by Rs 9-12 to ensure a full pass through.
The decision to keep retail prices on hold, despite surging global crude oil prices, and leaving oil marketing companies to absorb the losses does suggest that fuel pricing decisions continue to be driven not by commercial considerations, but by political compulsions. After all, retail prices were kept on hold till the conclusion of elections in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand. To limit the impact on the end consumers, governments, at both the central and state level, could have offset some part of the price hikes by cutting the taxes imposed on petrol and diesel — in Delhi, for instance, on March 16, the excise duty and VAT levied on petrol was around Rs 43.4 per litre.
Higher crude oil prices, even if partially passed through, will be inflationary. The decision of oil marketing companies to increase the price of bulk diesel by Rs 25 per litre, even as it distorts the market, will also end up being inflationary, as prominent buyers of bulk diesel include transportation companies and the Indian Railways. Considering this scenario, the Reserve Bank of India will have to revise its outlook on inflation in the next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. In the last MPC meeting, held just days after the Union budget was presented, the central bank had projected inflation at 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021-22, trending downwards thereafter to 4.5 per cent in 2022-23. However, with the consumer price index having already breached the upper limit of the RBI’s inflation targeting framework in both January and February, it is now unlikely to mirror the trajectory laid out by the central bank. Elevated inflation will further restrict the RBI’s room to manoeuvre. The longer the conflict between Russia and Ukraine persists, the longer crude oil prices remain elevated, the more challenging the policy environment will be.
So, you want a plate of momos from a restaurant 5 km away and you want it right now? In 10 minutes? Time was when this kind of bratty, entitled behaviour would invite the wrath of sensible parents, and a week of nothing but dal-sabzi. Now it gets rewarded by techbros out to make a million quick bucks. And so, app after app has been wooing customers with the promise of delivering anything — cigarettes, groceries, sanitisers, the moon — in 20 minutes or less. In this pointless game of fastest-orders-first, Zomato has rolled out an instant delivery service that promises hot meals, from kitchen to doorstep, in 10 minutes flat. Boss, who are you kidding? Even instant noodles take longer to make.
And really, what’s the rush for? Why push underpaid, overworked gig workers to break speed limits to meet your unreasonable deadlines? Why burden rush-hour traffic with more frantic two-wheelers? We have heard the spiel, of course. The consumer is king, and companies are incentivised to serve their needs. But here’s the thing: No one really needs to have stuff delivered to them in an instant. Ambulances, yes. Tomatoes and tortillas, no. This is a manufactured economy of instant gratification, aimed at soaking up venture capitalist funds. Surely, the best of Indian startup talent has better problems to solve and innovate.
So much frenetic activity in delivering anda-bread just underlines what we all know — speed is overrated, especially when it becomes its own intoxication. What the dudebros of India’s startup culture need is a lesson in slowing down, and not racing the herd. Perhaps, a stroll in the sabzi mandi, followed by some mindful time in the kitchen doing some actual cooking might do the trick. As for the customers being peddled the cult of hyperconvenience, they ought to know that the promise that apps will deliver us leisure is a lemon — it may arrive in 10 minutes, but they still have got to make their lemonade.
Cautious Indian optimism about the prospects of improving relations with China is reflected in the annual report of the Ministry of External Affairs. Recalling the talks during the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister Huang Hua in June last year and the visit of the Indian delegation led by Eric Gonsalves to Beijing in December, the ministry stressed that the boundary question is central to the relationship and an early settlement is desirable. “It is our hope that this dialogue will lead to the settlement of the outstanding problems which will enable full normalisation and further improvement in the ties between the two countries,” the document states. Elsewhere, the report talks of the lack of substantive progress in the border talks.
The Communist Party of India (CPI) considers the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more authoritarian than Mrs Gandhi, according to Indrajit Gupta who ruled out any alliance between the two parties. He was against the CPM’s move to seek the BJP’s help in the fight against the government because the BJP was more authoritarian in addition to being communal. He said the BJP was not consistently anti-authoritarian in Kerala and in Baghwal by-election it had collaborated with Mrs Indira Gandhi’s party.
Chairman Fatehyab Ali Khan of the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy in Pakistan was arrested and authorities said about 20 Opposition leaders were being rounded up. Miraj Mohammad Khan, president of the Left Wing National Liberation Front was placed under house arrest.
In the crime at Rampurhat, West Bengal, both the victims and the alleged perpetrators are reportedly associated with the state’s ruling party, the Trinamool Congress. Bhadu Sheikh, deputy pradhan, was murdered in Botugi village, and in the hours after Sheikh’s murder, a group of people set ablaze houses of the suspects’ relatives, killing eight people — all of them belonging to the minority community, and including women and children. The Bengal police has said that Sheikh’s murder did not have a political angle, but the killings appear to be part of a larger dismal pattern in the state: In West Bengal, the electoral dominance of the TMC in rural areas has been accompanied by violence, factionalism and a deterioration of the rule of law, in many ways mimicking and deepening the political culture that became entrenched during Left rule. For Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, fresh from the glow of her comprehensive victory over the BJP in the state last year, the killings are a call to take urgent steps to bring an end to the political culture of violence and impunity in Bengal.
In over three decades of Left Front rule, CPM workers came to dominate nearly every aspect of social and political life, and the political Opposition was all too often dealt with violently. Banerjee’s party appears to have only strengthened this way of doing politics. “Syndicate” culture — initially limited to certain construction projects in urban Bengal — has become a catch-all phrase that denotes the entrenched nexus between politics, corruption, organised crime such as extortion and distribution of political patronage. The lack of a cadre-based Opposition in rural areas means that personal and business rivalries find expression as violent factional conflicts. In this setting, the police apparatus appears to take its cue from the political masters: In Rampurhat, for example, questions are justifiably being asked about the absence of police forces in areas where arson and violence took place after Sheikh’s murder. Given that it is the Party that controls and circumscribes all factions and facets, it is from its leadership that the process of reform must also begin.
Speaking in the aftermath of the killings, Banerjee said that “… the possibility of a larger political conspiracy to malign the image of the State cannot be ruled out and the investigation will make all-out efforts to unearth all those who are behind the occurrence of the incident”. That sounds suspiciously like spectre-mongering. The police must bring the perpetrators to book, no matter what their political loyalties. And the TMC must make a beginning towards dismantling the Syndicate culture, to purge the violence from the state’s body politic that continues to take a toll on its men, women and children. In her third term, with an impressive mandate, touted as a leader who could play a leading role in the national Opposition space, CM Banerjee has the political capital to rescue her state by unambiguously upholding the rule of law.
The election results from Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur have surprised many eminent commentators and experts. Their surprise is born out of ignorance of ground realities, both willful and unintentional. The fact that people re-elected their governments decisively, despite a once-in-a-century pandemic, has been quite difficult to absorb and digest for them. For anyone who has observed India’s approach to the pandemic and the public feedback in the last two years with objectivity, the results do not offer any surprise.
The results are an outcome of the “mutual understanding” model in India where Prime Minister Narendra Modi understood the people’s requirements and ground signals like no one else did and the people reciprocated with unprecedented trust.
When the pandemic reached India’s shores in March 2020, we saw numerous suggestions and ideas on how the country should tailor its policy prescriptions to mitigate the impact of the lockdowns and the accompanying economic distress. They ranged from cash handouts to loan and utility bill waivers. There was also a lot of clamour for big packages to bail out corporations. To be fair, there were identical recommendations to policymakers across the world. The difference was that most governments across the world followed this approach, whereas India proved to be an outlier.
Almost two years later, there is sufficient data to analyse the outcomes of the various policy prescriptions followed. Most of the models followed globally have turned out to be short-sighted, insufficient or flawed. As a result, developed economies are grappling with problems of high inflation, high-interest rates and high currency depreciation while their GDP growth rates didn’t pick up as expected. On the other hand, India looks like an island of macroeconomic stability, with healthy growth numbers and inflation within the comfort zone. India’s exports and incoming investments are at record highs.
India did not throw in the kitchen sink but used a cautious and calibrated approach. India’s package, first and foremost, was targeted towards protecting the most vulnerable. PM Modi ensured this right from the first lockdown; people got gas cylinders, free ration and similar targeted benefits. While people across the board have now woken up to the game-changing impact of free ration, there was hardly any acknowledgement or appreciation of this scheme when it was rolled out. Biases do play a role in this, but it would be wrong to attribute this to only biases.
The reason such schemes were crafted by the government was PM Modi’s deep understanding of the people. He understands society and people’s behaviour, as well as the multi-dimensional aspects of poverty and the mindset of the poor. Contrary to the prescription of experts to go for demand-driven recovery, PM Modi opted for a resilient recovery by safeguarding the poor, the vulnerable and MSMEs. This is because he understood that when there is a crisis, people would opt to conserve their resources even if the government writes cheques worth billions of rupees. It is this understanding of society and people that ensures that Modi’s policies stand out and give the maximum bang for the buck.
Similarly, the credit-linked guarantee scheme for MSMEs was able to protect 6 crore people during the last two years. For people with only a rich experience of textbooks, classrooms and TV studios, these policy choices appear counterfactual. But for common people, it seems that the PM is actually reading their minds when they are in distress and is standing up to support them during these unprecedented times. Because the PM understands them, people also understand that this is a never-before-seen pandemic, and so there is bound to be some distress. People, unlike Opposition parties or op-ed writers, have a good perspective on what a once-in-a-century crisis entails, so they look at the efforts made by the government to help them despite the disruptions all around.
Many analysts have grudgingly accepted the significance of these schemes in the outcome of these elections. However, it would be incomplete to look at it only from a national perspective. Today, the world over, in the backdrop of the pandemic, leaders are facing discontent and anti-incumbency. This discontent is taking the form of various kinds of protests as well as a huge dip in the approval ratings of leaders. In this scenario, PM Modi has maintained one of the highest approval ratings across multiple surveys, such as those conducted by Pew and Morning Consult.
If leaders are to learn from the past and anticipate the future, the single most important take-away from the PM’s governance is his ear-to-the-ground approach, which enabled him to correctly gauge people’s aspirations and expectations without the distortion of intermediaries. This is supported by his ability to build impeccable governance mechanisms to deliver at the grassroots. If a leader can achieve this, the people’s unstinted understanding, trust and support is a by-product.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 24, 2022 under the title ‘Understanding and trust’. The writer is a former bureaucrat, MP and national spokesperson, Bharatiya Janata Party
In a deepening of India’s electoral democracy, voters in the recently held assembly elections have scripted a new political narrative, catapulting Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as the challenger to a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP’s success in stitching cross-caste alliances across states, buttressed by the seductive pull of Hindutva and nationalism, enabled it to duck anti-incumbency sentiment against the Yogi Adityanath government. The “spell of an idea”, presented as a promise of development and assurance of national security, and assiduously communicated and disseminated by the Prime Minister, added to the BJP’s appeal as the voters’ preferred choice in four of the five states, further cementing its position as the central pole of India’s polity.
But it is the AAP’s spectacular victory in Punjab that has caught the national imagination, alongside the stunning electoral defeat of Parkash Singh Badal, Sukhbir Badal, Amarinder Singh, Navjot Singh Sidhu and the then chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi from both constituencies. Their defeat represents a clinching denouement of the ancien regime and its politics. The AAP’s Punjab victory has understandably fuelled its national ambitions. Its ability to lead or co-lead a possible alternative national coalition will test the sagacity of its leaders, their negotiating skills and the breadth of their vision over time. Clearly, the party’s win in Punjab will endure only if it yields a stronger constitutional democracy in which the exercise of state power is accountable to the community’s sense of justice and institutional constraints. And for the AAP to succeed as a party of change and renewal, it must embrace and broaden a politics of dignity that enables citizens to become moral agents of their freedoms and liberties.
The nation yearns for a break from the debilitative political discourse and affirmation of the inviolability of the testing standards of right and wrong. To recall Lord Hailsham, a former Lord Chancellor of Great Britain, in another context, “We have to face the questions, old and new, to which the prohibition and injunctions of conscience ….. give rise, and we may note that new questions are constantly arising”. The need to interrogate our democratic processes to ensure that the majority vote is a guarantee of freedom and fairness in a just society, rather than a legitimation of the state’s encroachment of fundamental freedoms, is self-evident. After all, elections are democracy’s signposts, not its destination. It is imperative, therefore, to reject a “manipulative conversation about our future”, affirm the centrality of idealism in the pursuit of politics and assert the power of truth as the ultimate vindication of democracy.
The moment is right and history is turning a page. The resilience of our democratic politics to deliver the larger national goals of unity and inclusion will define our tryst with democracy. And electoral victories as a symbol of democratic resurgence must yield leadership defined by a largeness of vision and generosity of heart, befitting the challenges of our times. The discredited processes of political democracy that destroy collegiality and defeat consensus-building must yield to an overarching national aspiration for politics as a cooperative enterprise of national renewal. The end purpose of democratic politics is to create conditions for expanding the “circle of human dignity”. A democracy in a state of perpetual conflict ill-serves this ennobling aspiration. The assault on individual freedoms spurred by intolerance, bigotry and fundamentalism, a weakening commitment to the constitutional ethic, diminishing empathy for the marginalised and a twisted definition of nationalism that pits freedom and dignity against national security as if these were mutually exclusive, challenge the fundamental assumptions of democracy. The nation needs an accommodative democratic politics, based on conciliation and consensus anchored in a constructive contest of ideas, as part of an ongoing national conversation. Securing a bipartisan commitment towards this end will be the test of leadership.
It is also incumbent upon the victors to recognise that “democratic triumphalism” is not an invitation to transgress constitutional constraints on the exercise of executive power. In the finer traditions of parliamentary democracy, the winners and the losers are both challenged to restore the credibility of a presently dysfunctional system and reinforce a larger construct of democracy in which people “construct their own ideal” and reject the personalisation of power. Those aspiring to lead the nation must recognise the non-severability of justice, freedom and dignity in the service of democracy. They must take the lead to invest politics with a larger moral compass and reverse the intellectual amorality that has robbed our democratic experiment of its elevating function. Nursing a flailing democracy to vigour is an “unending journey, guided by lights, warnings and insights”, which will require a demonstrative commitment to man as “the measure of all things”. Those who scoff at this “unrealistic utopian dream” may wish to remember that the truth of a conviction is best tested in its repeated assertion and that vindication of the ideal of democracy requires us to proclaim our convictions aloud.
Finally, leadership cannot be inherited or willed, nor can it rest on a flawed understanding of national sensitivities on issues that touch the nation’s inner core. Compulsive cynicism and routine personal targeting of political adversaries diminishes leadership which, as Hegel reminded us, is about understanding the will of the age, telling the age what its will is and accomplishing it. Indeed, the leader of the nation must also be the leader of the times.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 24, 2022 under the title ‘The will of the age’. The writer is a former Union Law Minister. Views expressed are personal
There are very few issues on which legislative and judicial positions have wavered with such frequency over the years as the Special Dispensation Scheme for admissions in the Kendriya Vidyalayas (KVs). Introduced in 1975, the scheme has been in constant flux as a result of the frequent changes in the standpoints of the KV’s board of governors, its joint action committees, the law ministry and the human resource development ministry. The measure was abolished thrice, but on each occasion it was reintroduced. That a discretionary provision has witnessed so many changes — the latest amendment to it was as recently as 2016-17 — speaks of its inherently flawed nature.
Currently, the scheme allows every MP to recommend 10 students for admission to the Kendriya Vidyalayas. The scheme was reintroduced in 1998 after its first withdrawal in 1997. It was scrapped on two more occasions, including once at the instance of the Delhi High Court just after it was re-introduced in 1998. The number of students an MP could recommend for admission was increased from two to five in 2011, after the quota was restored a second time in 2010. This was further increased to six in 2012 and then to 10 students per MP in 2016.
Given that there are 543 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 245 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, a total of 7,880 admissions are executed through this quota every academic year. Since the scheme facilitates admissions over and above the class strength of the KVs, it distorts the student-teacher ratio in these schools. It’s well-known that maintaining a healthy pupil-teacher ratio, especially at the foundational levels, is critical to ensure desired learning objectives. This has been reiterated by the New Education Policy 2020 which recommends a student-teacher ratio below 30:1 for schools. The policy sets an aspirational target of below 25:1 in areas with large numbers of socio-economically disadvantaged students. The MP quota hinders these objectives as it dilutes educational standards in the KVs.
The MP quota is an anachronism in today’s India and must be dispensed with at the earliest. Initially conceptualised as a means of enhancing democracy by providing discretionary power to MPs, the quota has served little purpose to that end. Such a discretionary provision in admission practices discounts quality and goes against the spirit of transparency, consistency, and meritocracy.
A discretion accorded to an elected representative is based on the premise that the people trust the politician to ensure its best use. An MP is approached by people several times more than the quota allotted to him/her. Evaluating each proposal to determine the most deserving and meritorious ones is practically unfeasible. The use of this power is, therefore, prone to arbitrariness. The 7,880 seats under the MP quota could have served a better purpose if they had been allotted to meritorious students in a transparent manner.
Moreover, even after selecting 10 students as per the limit, an MP is forced to turn down a large number of applicants. This provokes public anger in the constituency as a number of people get rejected without a rational justification. As evinced by the experiences of many fellow parliamentarians, this quota has become an unpopular power with MPs, one which has overstayed its welcome.
Allotment of seats under the MP quota is also an inconsistent practice if one looks at the other central educational institutions of the country. MPs are not given such discretionary quotas in the Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalayas or for that matter other central educational institutes in the country. It goes against reason to have such a provision exclusively for Kendriya Vidyalayas, especially because parliamentarians have not been provided with any jurisdiction in recommending admission of students in other educational institutions.
With its flagrant disregard for reservation limits, this quota also undermines a constitutional provision. Admissions through it fail to maintain fidelity to the constitutionally-mandated 50 per cent reservation criteria for the SCs, STs and OBCs. It also deprives the economically weaker sections of the right to 10 per cent reservation and ignores the right of the differently-abled students to 3 per cent horizontal reservation.
Bereft of any allegiance towards reservation policies in the country, this quota has been depriving about 3,940 students of their constitutional right every year. As a result, it has undermined one of the principal reasons for establishing KVs: Giving admission to students from marginalised communities and disadvantaged sections. Abolishing it will be a welcome step towards respecting constitutional provisions and fulfilling the mandate of the KVs.
As our democracy has matured, we have done away with several discretionary powers given to political figures: These include scrapping the practice of allotting gas pumps and revoking the appointments and nomination powers of various ministers as recommended by the Group of Ministers in 2011. Even the Union education minister’s discretionary quota for admissions was scrapped recently. Admissions through this quota had surged a staggering 27 times from 450 to 12,295 in 2020-21 until the Union Education Minister surrendered this quota. No admission under the minister’s discretionary quota has taken place since then.
In view of these developments, it would therefore be proper to abolish the MP’s discretionary quota under the Special Dispensation Admissions Scheme, this time for good.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 24, 2022 under the title ‘A quota too many’. The writer, a former Deputy CM, Bihar, is a Rajya Sabha MP
Covid-19 and tuberculosis (TB) are remarkably similar. They are transmissible, airborne infections. Both are more likely to spread in crowded settings, and harm people with immuno-compromising conditions.
In the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, 1.8 million people were reported to have succumbed to the virus. In the decade between 2010-20, 1.5-2 million individuals died every year because of tuberculosis. Yet, we seldom see the word “pandemic” used in the context of TB. The amount of money spent by governments for research and development in the first 11 months of the Covid-19 pandemic was 162 times the corresponding amount spent on TB in 2020. The difference in responses to the two pandemics can only be explained by the differences in the profiles of those who get infected. TB disproportionately affects people in low-income nations, the poor and the vulnerable.
The increased burden on healthcare to manage Covid has led to a serious setback in TB control. Before the Covid pandemic, it was assumed that a third of all individuals with TB were undiagnosed, and were likely spreading the disease in their communities. In the past two years, case detection has dropped, suggesting that the proportion of such “missing cases” is likely to have increased. Lockdowns, the fear of healthcare establishments and the stigma associated with respiratory symptoms have possibly contributed to the increase in “missing cases”. For those diagnosed, access to medicines has not always been easy. The redirection of human resources within the health system during the three Covid waves has left TB facilities understaffed leading to poorer quality and delayed care.
Studies have suggested that Covid may trigger pathways leading to reactivation of dormant TB bacilli. Historically, turmoil in society (such as wars), food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition have resulted in surges in the incidence of TB. We could, therefore, witness an increase in TB in the coming years.
On World TB day, we need to ask how best we can leverage the lessons learnt from Covid-19 to help gain a new momentum in TB control. We need to focus on the epidemiological triad: Agent, host and the environment.
Test, treat and track has been a strategy successfully employed for Covid. We need to aggressively scale up testing with innovative strategies such as active surveillance, bidirectional screening for respiratory tract infections using the most sensitive molecular diagnostics, and contact tracing. The biggest victory against Covid has been the speed with which vaccines were developed, scaled up and deployed. We need to replicate the same for tuberculosis, lobbying for funding from governments and industry to develop a successful vaccine for TB.
Malnutrition, poverty and immuno-compromising conditions such as diabetes are some of the factors strongly associated with TB. Over a hundred million Indians smoke tobacco — a strong risk factor for both developing TB, and dying from it. Social security programmes that work towards prevention of modifiable risk factors would possibly pay richer dividends than an exclusive focus on “medicalising” the disease.
Environmental factors which have been neglected include ventilation of indoor spaces, educating individuals to avoid crowds when possible, and to encourage voluntary masking, especially in ill-ventilated and closed spaces. We must not lose this opportunity to invest in these measures, at a time when the sensitisation to their need is high.
Covid has been a stellar example of how investments and actions can be swift, and public education can transform behaviour. Similar aspirations for TB can help turn this crisis into an opportunity to re-imagine our overburdened and underfunded systems. We need to actively engage the private sector, build bridges and partnerships as we did in the case of Covid.
All this, however, is easier said than done. India needs to triple the funding not just for TB but for health, nutrition and preventive services. The country needs to invest in state-of-the-art technologies, build capacity, expand its health workforce and strengthen its primary care facilities. It also needs to consider telemedicine and remote support as important aspects of health services. Most importantly, before embarking on any of this, it needs to build an open and collaborative forum where all stakeholders, especially affected communities and independent experts, take a lead role.
We have ignored TB for too long. It’s time we acknowledge the magnitude of the disease, and work harder at offering individuals equitable healthcare access and resources that the disease warrants.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 24, 2022 under the title ‘Covid lessons for TB’. Pinto is consultant pulmonologist at Hinduja Hospital, Mumbai. Mehra is a public health expert
The coming financial year will be rather interesting as it might witness the fructification of several budget proposals. The most obvious one that comes to mind is the disinvestment of LIC which was supposed to have concluded in March but now looks likely to be completed in the next financial year. But the question is when will this be done?
The course of the war is not known and if this uncertainty has held back the IPO now, there is no guarantee that the situation will be better in April or May. In fact, as 2021-22 draws to a close, markets appear to have reverted to normalcy. In retrospect, the government could perhaps have launched the IPO.
The other two major budget announcements pertain to the issuance of sovereign green bonds and a central bank digital currency. These two launches will be a joint effort between the government and the RBI. While geopolitical turbulence might make the current moment inopportune for experimentation, the government seems firm on both the proposals and they will most probably be rolled out.
The sovereign green bond is a novel idea. It will be a part of the government’s borrowing programme. The gross borrowing programme of the government is pegged at Rs 14.95 lakh crore. This money is raised by the government to finance the deficit which involves excess expenditure on both the capital and revenue accounts. But considering that money is fungible, it is hard to figure out where the borrowed money goes. In the case of sovereign green bonds, though, an exception has to be made. The SGB (sovereign green bond) raised will be part of the aggregate borrowing programme and has to be used for projects which are ESG (environment, social and governance) compliant. Hence, if the bond is being used to finance a power project or road, or in case it is used to finance revenue expenditure, it has to be ESG compliant. The groundwork for this should be done in advance.
The pricing of these bonds will be tricky. As these bonds are different from G-secs (government securities), they may have to provide a better return as all ESG compliant companies have to make special investments that will push up costs. Or will it be the case of these bonds being priced at lower rates to aid ESG implementation? Further, given the low interest rates prevailing today — real returns on deposits are negative — the SGBs can be issued as tax-free bonds, open to the public. This will evince a lot of interest given that these are government-issued bonds. The RBI and the government have been trying to get retail investors to participate in the government’s borrowing programme, and this move will expedite the process.
The central bank digital currency, also known as CBDC, is also an interesting concept. It seems to be an outcome of the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. This has pushed several central banks into developing their version of digital currencies. This reasoning could be misleading because cryptos are an investment option, unlike a CBDC which is a substitute for currency. For launching such a currency, the RBI has to address certain fundamental questions.
First, is a CBDC going to replace currency at some point in the future? Is this just another option for the public or will physical currency disappear? One must remember that there are several sections in India that are not conversant with technology.
Second, if it is going to coexist with currency, how different will it be for the public from the digital payments that are being made today? This is a pertinent question because there seems to be a large volume of cash in the system post demonetisation. Will people need to choose between a mobile wallet and a CBDC wallet?
Third, any issuance of CBDC on a voluntary basis also raises a question on the security of the owner’s information. Aadhaar is supposed to ensure that an individual’s information is confidential, yet there is scepticism. That’s why CBDC has to be clear on the issue of confidentiality as it is bound to be a matter of concern. If it is not confidential, even a CBDC, given as a gift to a couple on their marriage will be tracked by the income tax department.
Fourth, what will be the future of the banking system as CBDC catches on? If people have to be incentivised to move voluntarily to the CBDC, the cash exchanged must earn an interest or else all money will go to bank accounts where a minimal interest rate can be earned. Will we require savings bank accounts with commercial banks in case all cash goes to the RBI? Will we then require ATMs for cash withdrawal? Will bank tellers become redundant? Will we need logistics companies that handle cash? These finer issues need to be addressed by the RBI as the widespread use of CBDC will progressively lead to lesser need for banks.
Fifth is the issue of security as any financial system that runs on technology can be hacked. It has to be foolproof and power failure resistant. Such systems have to be created and tested before a CBDC is brought in. There is a real danger of cyber fraud increasing as the majority of the population is not tech-savvy. Similarly, there is always downtime for bank servers when banking transactions cannot be carried on. This cannot be allowed to be the case with CBDC as it has to be available on a 24 x 7 basis.
If they succeed at the central level, green bonds can be replicated by states. The arguments for CBDC are compelling on the grounds of keeping up with the central banks of other countries, and the possibilities of taking advantage of new technologies like blockchain. But before embarking on these measures, it might be useful to keep in mind the issues flagged above.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 24, 2022 under the title ‘Changing face of money’. The writer is Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda and author of Hits & Misses: The Indian Banking Story. Views are personal
Marking what feels like a pivotal moment, the National Disaster Management Authority has decided against invoking the NDMA Act provisions beyond March 31. The normalization of social and economic activities that have been underway alongside the steep decline in Covid-19 cases across the country, should gain further confidence from the above decision.
To underline, after three painful waves and 5.17 lakh deaths (an undercount), the daily positivity rate is now around 0.28% and around 84% of the adult population is fully vaccinated. Obviously, the children’s vaccination and the booster programmes have to continue apace. Plus, disease surveillance has to stay on top of a virus that has proved a dangerous shape-shifter and is still on the rampage in other parts of the world.
Read also: As Centre eases Covid curbs, govt asks states to be cautious
But as the scars of the pandemic fade over time, India must not let the memory of how its healthcare system crumbled because of how scant or dilapidated it was in too many parts of the country fade so far as to return to business as usual. On the worst days of the pandemic, all stakeholders agreed that public healthcare infrastructure right down to the primary healthcare centers urgently needs dragging into the 21st century. This task must remain a government priority area.
Russia’s (pre-sanctions) $1.4 trillion economy is lopsided. It relies hugely on exports of two products, oil and arms. The trade relationship with India revolves mainly around arms as we source our crude needs primarily from West Asia. It is our import of arms from Russia that is in the limelight as the Quad members and Europe aim to persuade India to take a more critical diplomatic position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So, is India in a vulnerable position because of its dependence on Russian arms imports? Not really.
Note that although Western sanctions against Russia left a loophole for oil exports, it may not help Moscow much. According to the International Energy Agency, Russia’s 8 million barrels/day exports of oil and petroleum products – the world’s largest – may come down to 5 million barrels/day as many customers are wary of renewing contracts. Therefore, Russia needs arms exports even more. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s data showed that Russia was the world’s second largest arms exporter behind the US with a market share of 19% during the period 2017-21. Its largest customer was India, the recipient of 28% Russian arms exports.
To gauge the importance of India to Russia’s arms exports, consider the previous four year period, 2012-16. During that phase Russia had a global market share of 24%, which subsequently fell by five percentage points mainly because India began to diversify its sources. In the 2017-21 period, India and Saudi Arabia were the largest arms importers in the world. This puts India in a powerful position to negotiate with Russia and gives it the room to critique it because in trade a large buyer has as much clout as a dominant seller. Plus, when trade involves complex products, diversification is not easy. India’s bilateral trade with China drives home this point. Despite India’s attempt to mark down its trade ties with China, the latter still remains our largest source of imports, including for key sectors like electronics. Trade ties are harder to shift than diplomatic positions.
Therefore, India is actually not in a weak position in relation to Russia. If India needs Russia’s arms, it is also true that Russia needs India to buy them, more than before given the economic hit Moscow is taking. And there’s no reason to believe China will buy more Russian arms. China’s needs are different and its capabilities are much higher. In sum, India has diplomatic leverage against Russia. It should use it.
Delhi’s dubious reputation as the world’s most polluted capital and 12 cities in the larger NCR that spans UP, Haryana and Rajasthan figuring among the 25 most polluted cities is a public health crisis demanding greater inter-governmental coordination. From coal used for power generation, biomass burning for cooking, dust spewn by land degradation, construction and road dust to vehicular emissions and stubble burning, NCR has become a victim of its economic success and weak governance. Delhi’s PM2.5 concentration is now over 19 times the WHO’s safety limit of 5µg/m3.
While the shift away from coal, biomass and IC engine vehicles will take longer owing to economic reasons and technology still maturing, stubble burning and dust sources demand tackling on a war footing. Though straw management machines have struggled because of additional costs incurred by farmers, a bio-decomposer jointly developed by ICAR-IARI and pesticide company UPL holds great promise for its reported ease of spraying, scalability and contribution to soil nutrition. Scaling up its production before kharif harvest, when stubble burning kicks off and triggers winter pollution spikes, requires ground work starting today.
With AAP in office in both Punjab and Delhi, the party has no excuse for failing to control stubble burning. BJP governments in Haryana and UP have just as much stake in the NCR’s future and must join the clean air cause. No less a stakeholder is GoI’s Commission for Air Quality Management set up with great fanfare and parliamentary backing last year. Dust, accounting for nearly 30% of air pollution, is a result of an abject failure of governance in Delhi, Haryana, UP, and to a smaller extent Rajasthan. Schemes for reversing Aravalli degradation, compensatory afforestation and tackling construction and road dust must start in earnest. If eliminating middlemen in welfare delivery has been a great success of governance, climate change and air quality are new frontiers begging for smart interventions.
Surging energy prices and a super-cycle in commodities have pushed India's merchandise exports in 2021-22 above $400 billion, as the export basket was widened to farm produce, and engineering products found new markets. India benefited from a global economy recovering from the pandemic as well as disruptions that saw consuming nations seek out alternatives to Chinese supply chains. Both themes are still playing out, and the gains to India's merchandise trade could accrue for a while. This should, however, not take away from years of policy tweaks that have gone about setting right the country's approach to free trade agreements and expanding the export basket as well as opening up new markets. Fast-track bilateral deals are yielding vastly improved outcomes in trade promotion, and the results are likely to surprise on the upside.
Efforts to climb the value chain in industrial and agriculture trade are beginning to show up in trade statistics. Performance-linked incentives (PLI) in manufacturing are delivering for sales at home and abroad. There is an untapped market beyond Europe and North America for labour-intensive engineering exports that is benefiting from a granular mapping of demand. Trade promotion for farm produce has likewise gone down to the district level. But Indian industry, by and large, remains a commodities play, and export diversification will take time. For now, cargoes of refined petroleum products and industrial raw materials are exporting inflation to the West and providing a cushion to Indian consumers.
This watershed moment in the country's trade history should encourage policymakers to look more vigorously beyond domestic demand. The size of the Indian market has, for long, dented its competitive advantage, in contrast to most of Asia's miracle economies that adopted an export-led model for development. The approach that allowed services to pick up the slack for merchandise exports did justice to neither. Merchandise trade needs a sustained push for India to secure its place in the world trading order.
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Norms guaranteeing the occupational safety and health of workers must be strictly enforced. The loss of 11 lives in a warehouse fire in Secunderabad, Telangana, was an avoidable tragedy. The victims were migrant workers, far from home and family. Their callous exploitation by their employer(s) must not go unpunished. Such fires in warehouses and small industrial units are, unfortunately, not rare across an India that wishes to join the global big boys in manufacturing. To be global, it must ensure global practices. Compliance to safety norms and provisions is critical, for which local administrations, business associations and workers' welfare organisations need to step up.
Minimising such accidents will require the concerted effort of the various agencies and authorities that sign off on such business operations. Enforcement of regulation relating to the structure, location, proper access for first responders (fire trucks, ambulances), fire-extinguishing equipment and emergency exits must become de facto from de jure. Most workers in such units are staffed by migrant workers, making it easy to cut corners. Implementation of labour codes must be fast-tracked, as these give greater protection to migrant workers in the informal sector in terms of social security protection and requires employers to contribute towards the safety net. Worker safety and the security of businesses should be aligned and complementary, not at odds with each other, as it remains in far too many cases.
Ending the fragmentation of the permits systems will help ensure that only those that meet the norms are operational. Those responsible for the lapses that led to Wednesday's deaths must be held accountable. Else, a dangerous trend of apathy will continue.
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Even by the gory standards set by the bloodied political history of West Bengal, the recent killing of eight people allegedly as revenge for the killing of a local political leader, is shocking. Initial reports say violence broke out in Bogtui village of Birbhum district on Monday night, shortly after a Trinamool Congress (TMC) politician was killed in public. Most of the victims, whose bodies are charred beyond recognition, are women and children. Despite politicians and reporters thronging the village, reports say many local residents are too scared to return to their homes.
Unfortunately, the response to this extraordinary act of brutality has been anything but prompt. A couple of police officers were removed, the victims given compensation, the government and the governor’s office hurled barbs at each other, and the chief minister (CM) hinted that it was a conspiracy to defame her regime. It is true that acts of violence have been embedded in Bengal’s political fabric since before Independence, and have been actively patronised by successive regimes. But it is also true that such strong-arm tactics have been honed by the TMC to expand its political hegemony, especially in the countryside and at the grassroots level. What has abetted this is a pliant law and order machinery that seems to dither every time members of the ruling party are involved. Despite public outcry over successive incidents — the outrage over the murder of political activist Anis Khan had barely died down when the Bogtui massacre occured — local political leaders continue to think of themselves as above the law.
Political cultures don’t change overnight, and they definitely don’t change of their own accord. As the state’s CM and also home minister, who is the reporting authority for the state police, Mamata Banerjee must take responsibility to ensure that law enforcement agencies are surefooted, prompt and fair in taking action against culprits, irrespective of their political affiliation. She, and other leaders of the TMC, have to make it clear to their ranks that acts of violence will carry heavy penalties and political patronage will not be extended. Curbing the endless cycle of political violence can be her enduring legacy. On the flip side, history will not be kind to an administration that didn’t act when factional fights took innocent lives. The time for homilies is over.
Much like her all-round game that stood out in modern women’s tennis, Ashleigh Barty took a rare decision this week. At an age when elite athletes tend to peak and reset goals that define sporting excellence — in Barty’s case, adding to her tally of three Grand Slam singles titles — the 25-year-old world No. 1 chose to stop and change directions. The announcement that she will retire, at a time when she’s the top ranked player for 114 consecutive weeks, came as a bolt from the blue. Barty said that she seeks to chase other dreams, acknowledging that she was physically and mentally “spent”. And though tennis has witnessed some former greats call it a day at the peak of their powers — Bjorn Borg, Justine Henin, and Kim Clijsters — Barty’s decision comes at a time when the issue of burnout across sport is becoming a talking point with greater awareness about stress and mental health.
Today’s athletes are increasingly speaking up about mental health while taking time off to tackle fatigue. Barty’s rival Naomi Osaka, now 24, stirred up the conversation by pulling out of the French Open last year. Gymnastics sensation Simone Biles, 25, prioritised her mental well-being over medals during the Tokyo Olympics. Ben Stokes, one of the leading all-rounders in world cricket, stepped away from the game last year to address his struggles.
It’s the other side of modern sport; as real and vulnerable as the unshakable grit and hunger attached with top athletes who push themselves to the limit. For every Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic defying age and injury to fight on, there’s a Barty and an Osaka who is refusing to shy away from pressing the stop button. “There is no right or wrong way. It’s just my way,” Barty said. It’s important to hear and understand her message.
Long before The Kashmir Files, there was Parzania, a film that relives the trauma of a Parsi family that lost their son in the 2002 Gujarat riots. Just before the film was to be released in Ahmedabad, the director, Rahul Dholakia, was summoned by the multiplex theatre association and told that the National Award-winning film could be shown only if “cleared” by the local Bajrang Dal leader, Babu Bajrangi. The notorious Bajrangi is accused of leading murderous mobs in the 2002 violence. With the Gujarat government refusing to intervene, Dholakia had little option but to withdraw the film from the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who now hails Kashmir Files for “truth-telling”, was the Gujarat chief minister at the time.
The immutable truth is that netas and their partisan cheerleaders cutting across party lines are unwilling to face the inconvenient truths of history. Make an honest film on the 1984 anti-Sikh pogrom and be sure that the Congress will raise a red flag. A Bengal Files that highlights political violence is unlikely to be screened in that state. The history of this country’s cinema is strewn with cases of films being censored and banned, the limits of artistic freedom being drawn by existing power equations.
Where The Kashmir Files stands out is that this is a rarest of rare instance where a ruling political party is using State power to actively promote a privately made film. From entertainment tax waivers and booking theatres at subsidised rates to even giving government employees a day off to watch the film, never before in recent times has a political leadership and its affiliates so brazenly used commercial cinema for public mobilisation in a manner where the lines between State propaganda and cinematic narratives are blurred.
Nor should the State’s explicit patronage of The Kashmir Files come as a surprise. After all, the core storyline of the film fits in with a dominant majoritarian political ideology that sees the Muslim, within and across the border, as the principal “enemy”. The horror of the 1989-90 killings and exodus of Kashmiri Pandits pits “barbaric” Islamism versus “peace-loving” Hinduism in a stark and real manner. The fact is that the awful winter of a defining year in Kashmir’s tryst with violence did witness the targeted killings of Kashmiri Hindus by Pakistan-sponsored terror groups. Rekindling those images more than three decades later will only amplify the prevailing Islamophobic hate politics that has already ruptured society.
For many Kashmiri Hindu families, who were uprooted and pushed into refugee camps, a film like this may be an emotionally cathartic experience, a chance to have their agonising story acknowledged and told to a wider audience. But while a film might be therapeutic for the victims, can it bring about genuine change, a sense of justice, and finally, reconciliation? This is where Kashmir’s blood-soaked history cannot be reduced to a one-sided political drama without providing relevant context and perspective. How, for example, does one correct the seeming amnesia over the Kashmiri Pandit exodus without any reference to other important aspects of Kashmir’s frozen turbulence, be it the Delhi-Srinagar intrigue, rigged elections, State brutalities, historical demands for greater autonomy or indeed, azaadi (freedom)?
In the last three decades, the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and third front governments have all been in power at the Centre, but failed to rehabilitate Kashmiri Pandit families or indeed prosecute most of their killers. What does it say about our criminal justice system that one of the original poster boys of Kashmiri azaadi, Yasin Malik, was only charged as late as 2020 for the murder of four Indian Air Force officers in a 1990 terror attack? Recall that successive governments in Delhi — the BJP and the Congress — saw Malik as a stakeholder in the Kashmir dialogue.
Which is also why it is so much easier to cover up for the failings of the Indian State by promoting a film made by an unapologetic BJP supporter that builds on the familiar demonisation of Muslim as terrorist theme without any nuance, rather than ensuring justice to the victims of terror or untangle the hugely problematic Kashmiri knot. Not just justice for grieving Kashmiri Pandit families, but also for Kashmiri Muslims, hundreds of whom have died facing terror merchants.
Unfortunately, a post-1990 generation — around half of this country’s citizenry is born after that landmark year — would seem to have little time to seek historical accuracy on polarising issues. Fed on a diet of competitive propaganda, prime time noise, post-truth twists and hyper-nationalism, this is a “new” India that gets its “facts” from WhatsApp forwards, social media influencers and 60-second viral videos. A “new” India where controversial films on Nathuram Godse attract far more attention than measured writings on Mahatma Gandhi. Caught between a rising tide of Islamic extremism and a Hindu awakening, it is almost as if an entire generation is being driven by fear and hatred of the other and not compassion and harmony. Would anyone, for example, be allowed to document the stories of worthy attempts made by Kashmiri Muslims and Pandits at peaceful co-existence without being branded as “anti-national”? The truth-telling mirror must show all sides — good, bad and ugly — before it can attempt to heal the festering sores of a fractured past.
Post-script: A few years ago, a super-hit film, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, made a stab at promoting Indo-Pak peace and friendship. One evocative dialogue stays with me: “Nafrat phailana bahut aasan hai, pyar baatna mushkil” (it is easier to incite hatred than spread love). That holds true for politically aligned film-makers as it does for vote bank politicians.
Rajdeep Sardesai is a senior journalist and author
The views expressed are personal
The Union Budget 2022-23 aims to encourage private participation in infrastructure development, along with public capital. This is exemplified in the focus on the PM Gati Shakti programme, an integrated approach towards building infrastructure for economic growth and sustainable development.
India has some of the biggest metro airports in the world. The Mumbai-Delhi route is one of the densest city pairs in terms of connectivity in the world. UDAN (Ude Desh Ka Aam Naagrik), a flagship programme of the Government of India, launched in 2016, has unlocked the potential of regional connectivity. Fifty-five airports and eight heliports have been operationalised in four years to connect 150 new city pairs. The number of airports is expected to rise from 120 to 220 by 2024. These new airports will be located mainly in the country’s remote regions.
Metro, regional, and remote airports require different approaches to financing and investment. India has around 219 unserved airports. About 70 of them are in different stages of development. A well-defined public policy framework is required to make these airports viable in the long-term. Economically viable operation and maintenance of these airports are crucial for their sustainability.
Remote airports cater to cities and towns with a catchment area of around one to two million people. These small airports can be categorised as Low Traffic Airports (LTA), with less than one million passengers per year. Many of these airports would be under the ownership of states that may not have the expertise and resources to develop and manage them. In the initial stages, traffic at LTAs would be via regional aircraft.
Considering the conventional revenue sources of airport — aeronautical services, airport services, and passenger service fees and revenue — could be around ₹1-2 crore per annum. However, given the regulatory compliances and service requirements, the cost for operating and maintaining an airport would be around ₹7-14 crore.
India’s current model for financing and investing in LTAs is largely State-supported. However, major metro and regional airports, which are profitable, find willing domestic and foreign investors. Here are six ways in which countries have considered making LTAs economically viable: One, viability gap funding. Under the Regional Airport Development Scheme of Australia, local governments support private airport operators by providing grants for augmenting infrastructure. Two, support by local communities. In the United States, the Small Connectivity Air Service Development Programme receives budgetary allocation from the federal government to help serve remote areas. Three, budgetary support or cross-subsidies. In Nigeria, the Federal Airports Authority cross-subsidises smaller but non-profitable airports from the revenue generated from bigger profitable airports. Four, clubbing LTAs. As part of its privatisation plans for airports, India is clubbing profitable airports with low or negative profitability airports. Such clubbing could create a remote-to-regional hub-and-spoke model for airports in an area. Five, unlocking the value of adjoining real estate. Nepal is considering bundling unprofitable airport activities with profitable airports, or possibly with property or commercial development opportunities. In India, states may bundle LTA with the commercial development of property. Six, revenue-sharing from profitable airports or air routes. In India, the Naresh Chandra Committee Report (2003) spoke about the creation of an Essential Air Services Fund for developing regional airports, including heliports in under-served/unserved areas.
Learning from these experiences, India needs to develop a novel model for LTAs, which could unleash investments and enhance the potential of unserved regions.
Usha Padhee is a joint-secretary, ministry of civil aviation
The views expressed are personal
The dry deciduous forest landscape of Kuno Palpur National Park is looking at re-writing history. More than 117 years after the project to rehabilitate lions from Africa failed, the government has readied a five square kilometre enclosure for cheetahs to be brought from Namibia by end of this year. And the experiment has the world watching as it would be India’s first relocation of cats from another continent since Independence.
In 1905, 10 lions were brought from Africa for repopulating the lion population in Kuno grasslands, which had lions till 1872, when the last one was shot dead near Guna. Of the 10 lions, three died by the time they reached Bombay harbour. The remaining seven were released in the forests of Shivpuri, near Kuno, and all of them were killed by local villagers when the lions started killing their cattle. The project failed despite having the backing of Lord Curzon, the then viceroy of the British Empire in India.
In 2010, India embarked upon a new journey for the re-introduction of the cheetah into the wild. The plan was to bring cheetahs from Africa and release them in wild to repopulate the cheetah population in the country. Kuno was selected as the habitat where the cheetahs could be relocated. However, the project got stuck as some wildlife activists moved the Supreme Court (SC) against the project saying it was not feasible. The SC struck down the proposal agreeing with the critics that survival of cheetahs in changed ecological demography was difficult.
However, in 2018 the Madhya Pradesh government revived the project asking the SC to consider the project afresh. The court agreed and, in 2020, appointed an expert committee headed by retired Indian Forest Service officer, MK Ranjit Sinh, to examine the wildlife areas suitable for cheetah. The committee in January 2021, selected Kuno National Park as the first destination for the Cheetah Translocation project. The apex court gave its go-ahead.
The history of the cheetah in India
Ravi Chellam, a biodiversity expert, who had worked extensively on big cats, said that historically, Asiatic cheetahs had a wide range of distribution in India. “There are authentic reports of their occurrence from as far north as Punjab to Tirunelveli district in southern Tamil Nadu, from Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west to Bengal in the east. Most of the records are from a belt extending from Gujarat passing through Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. There is also a cluster of reports from southern Maharashtra extending to parts of Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The distribution range of the cheetah was wide and spread all over the subcontinent,” he wrote in The Hindu newspaper.
Chellam said that the habitat of cheetah was also diverse, favouring the more open habitats; scrub forest, dry grasslands, savannas and other arid and semi-arid open habitats. “Some of the last reports of cheetahs in India prior to their local extinction are from edge habitats of sal forests in east central India, not necessarily their preferred habitat,” he wrote. In Iran, he said, cheetahs are found in hilly terrain, foothills and rocky valleys within a desert ecosystem.
India lost many cheetahs after the British government announced a bounty for cheetahs in 1871, which resulted in their rapid extinction from many habitats across India. In 1948, the last three cheetahs were hunted by the king of Surguja, in present-day Chhattisgarh. Four years down the line, the government declared that the cheetah is extinct in India. In 1974, India made a futile effort to bring cheetahs from Iran.
Why Kuno?
Kuno was preferred over the Mukundara Hills Tiger Reserve in Rajasthan and Nauradehi Wildlife Sanctuary in MP because it was large enough for cheetahs to roam around and hunt freely, away from any human interference. Sinh, who chairs the SC’s expert panel for cheetah translocation said "The work done to get lions from Gir by way of relocating 24 villages from inside the habitat also worked in favour of Kuno.” The translocation of lions did not eventually happen with the Gujarat government saying they could not share their "states pride."
In the past 10 months, the Madhya Pradesh forest department and experts from the Dehradun based Wildlife Institute have worked to make changes in the dry deciduous forest of Kuno in Sheopur district. One of the first concerns was the invasive grass species and thorny bushes, both detrimental to the cheetah's ability to make a kill.
Beyond that, a highly secured semi-captive cage spread over five sq km is close to being ready, a pipeline to get water from the Kuno river 12 km away from the enclosure has been laid, watch towers have been erected and the landscape management is in the final stages. The enclosure is covered with mesh wires and has solar fencing to prevent unwarranted animals to enter. The enclosure has been divided into five compartments for the initial release of cheetahs, where they would be monitored through CCTV cameras around the clock. Watch towers have also been constructed to keep a manual watch on them. “All cheetahs would be geo-tagged to study how they are adopting to the new habitat. A team of wildlife experts from India and abroad will monitor cheetahs,” Verma said. The entire re-conservation process will cost about R10 crore, and the cheetahs are expected by end of 2022.
The enclosure having grassland and hilly terrain will test the ability of cheetah to survive in a climate where the temperatures in summer touch close to 45 degrees Celsius and in winter it can come down to 3-4 degrees Celsius. An experiment to see whether African cheetahs can survive in an Asian landscape is unique as it would test the adaptability of the fastest animal on the planet in a new habitat. So far, tiger relocation within the same state — Ranthambore to Sariska, both in Rajasthan and Kanha to Panna tiger reserve, both in Madhya Pradesh — have been successful in India. However, the only inter-state relocation of tigers from Bandhavgarh in Madhya Pradesh to Satkosia wildlife sanctuary in Odisha has failed, primarily because of poor prey population management in Satkosia.
Cat conflicts
KC Verma, director of Kuno-Palpur Wildlife Sanctuary, said the park has a good population of leopards and spotted deer. Spotted deer could be prey for both leopards and cheetahs. He ruled out the possibility of conflict between leopard and cheetah saying the two can co-exist in the same habitat as the former is a shy animal and not as aggressive as the cheetah. “There is enough prey population for both the cats,” he said. However, international cat experts have said that several cheetah deaths were reported in Africa from habitats having a good leopard population. Kuno has about 90 leopards spread in an area of 748 square kilometres.
But, some wildlife experts say a bigger conflict can emerge as Kuno has been home for tigers who migrate from Ranthambore due to population pressure there. Ranthambore has 75 tigers, which is more than the habitat — having a core area of 1,300 square kilometres — can hold. TC Verma, director of Ranthambore tiger reserve, said there are plans to relocate some tigers from Ranthambore to Kala Devi and Mukundra Hills wildlife sanctuaries, which the Rajasthan government is developing to accommodate excess tigers from Ranthambore. This may stop the migration of tigers from Ranthambore to Kuno for time being, but not in future. In 2015, at-least four tigers from Ranthambore had migrated to Kuno, TM Verma admitted, while refusing to comment on the cheetah project.
His counterpart in Kuno, KC Verma, did not see any threat from Ranthambore tigers for the project saying that no tiger has migrated since 2016 to Kuno and even if they come, tigers and cheetahs can live together. “Historically, all four big cats (lion, tiger, leopard and cheetah) were found in Kuno, like some other wildlife habitats in the country,” he said, adding that tigers have primarily confined themselves to the outskirts of Kuno, which is close to Sawai Madhopur in Rajasthan, and not entered the core where cheetahs would be kept.
The Madhya Pradesh forest department has prepared 500 hectares as an enclosure, where cheetahs from Namibia will be released. According to the government, about a month ago, a team of government officials visited Namibia to inspect the cheetahs that would be sent to India, review the arrangements and reach an agreement for the transfer of the cats. Hindustan Times has reported that Namibia wants India’s support for lifting the CITES ban on the commercial trade of wildlife products, including ivory. The cheetahs are to be provided by the Cheetah Conservation Fund, an NGO, and not the Namibian government.
Experiment
Notwithstanding the enthusiasm of the Madhya Pradesh forest department, there are critics of the project who say that by bringing cheetah to Kuno the state government has abandoned the longtime lion relocation project. They also say that releasing cheetah into the wild from enclosure would be difficult as a cheetah would become habitual of easy availability of prey. The forest department plans to trap prey and release them in the enclosure. “In fact, this project is of bringing cheetah from wildlife and keeping him in a zoo,” said a wildlife expert working with Delhi University. Wildlife ecologists also say not enough scientific research has been done to select Kuno as the site for translocation of the cheetah.
But for many, the cheetah relocation project is important as it would help conservationists to understand the behaviour of cheetahs in a new habitat and also rekindle the hope of cheetah returning to India’s forest also 70 years after it was hunted to extinction from the country. The project may fail. But failure cannot be a reason for not conducting an important ecological experiment.
(The writer had recently travelled to Kuno on personal visit)
Historians, feminists, and scholars at large explain that it is on the bodies of women that wars are waged and nation-states drawn. Pedro Almodóvar’s Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers) documents this as he intertwines the making of the Spanish democratic State, based on its fascist past, with the narrative of womanhood, specifically the travails of motherhood.
Almodóvar’s oeuvre centres on human experiences of desire and tragedy, which he captures not just in emotional and mental forms but also in absolute physical form. Body, then, is an integral part of his films, as also in his 2011 masterpiece, The Skin I live in. Madres Paralelas too focuses on the body and its interlinkages with traumas in the context of familial complications and politics of war and disappearances. He explores the vicissitudes of motherhood, as experienced by the body of women and their emotions of birthing and rearing, along with digging deep into the traumas of war as experienced in the search of lost bodies in the unmarked graves of the Spanish civil war.
At one level, this film is a celebration of single mothers and female bonds and friendships, told in the stories of two protagonists: Janis (Penélope Cruz), a photographer in her late 30s, and Ana (Milena Smit), in her early 20s who is on a path of self-discovery. They meet each other in a maternity ward, whilst simultaneously entering unplanned motherhood. From there on, their lives are entangled, with the melodrama of baby swap, a shared experience of birthing, death, loss, sacrifice, and fighting demons of familial pasts — Janis is on a mission to find her great-grandfather’s grave and Ana is dealing with a troubled relationship with her parents. Amid all this, they find support in each other as friends, mothers, and lovers.
This film is not only about a shared experience of motherhood between Janis and Ana but also refers to the parallels between mothers across generations, who are tied together by a shared tragedy of loss — the loss of their husbands and sons to war. In one scene, Janis says that by being a single mother she is simply following her family tradition, as her mother and grandmother were single mothers too. In this way, Almodóvar brings attention to the cyclical nature of time by showing how the past, present and future are intertwined; of how generations of women feel the pains of loss and sacrifice.
What is remarkable about this film is that it meanders the themes of the political (fascism, war, mass killings) and the personal (motherhood, betrayal, mistrust and passion), pulling us back and forth in time, by invoking the grammar of war (its weapons and traumas) in the narratives of the two protagonists. We see how Janis directly confronts the tragedy of the Spanish civil war, in a quest to discover the body of her great-grandfather, who, like many men was forced to dig his own grave and buried in it by Francoists.
In this quest, she takes the help of Arturo (Israel Elejalde), an anthropologist, who as it turns out, also becomes the father of her child, forming another entangled intimacy. Against this backdrop, she is also confronting the loss of her child, a process eerily similar to the discovery of her great-grandfather’s body, as she takes swabs to establish maternity, attempts to ‘disappear’ by changing her phone number, and finally confronts her reality by bringing Ana back into her life. Ana is confronting her experience of violence (rape: Another weapon of war), and the loss and discovery of her child, which shapes her journey of womanhood.
Another way in which the traumas of war and personal lives have been brought together is by focussing on the place of lies and secrets both in war and intimate relationships. Janis lies to Ana about Celine (Ana’s biological daughter) in the same way that governments lie to civilians about the true extent of tragedies and their gruesome pasts. This film also asserts the importance of unearthing these secrets and lies. In its closing scene, women from Janis’ ancestral village gather around the finally unearthed grave, holding photographs of men whose skeletons lie below. It was a moment of reckoning and closure, allowing women and nations to move forward.
Madres Paralelas is yet another masterpiece by Almodóvar about the haunting of pasts, desires, intimacies, and complicated families. With his signature style of close-ups, we see the raw emotions of his female leads, further enabled by Cruz’s spectacular performance that brings out warmth and vulnerabilities of women (she’s nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars), all delivered in the backdrop of a Hitchcock-style capturing score (the film is also nominated for Best Original Score). Madres Paralelas is equally a story of traumas of loss and pursuits of hope, tragedies and optimism.
Little did Almodóvar know, when he began directing this film that it would resonate with contemporary global politics. Perhaps leaders of the world should watch this film and spare the future of yet another tragic past, which will haunt us for generations to come.
Parul Bhandari is a sociologist and author of Matchmaking in Middle Class India: Beyond Arranged and Love Marriage
The views expressed are personal
The eyeballs are all concentrated on the missiles, rockets and shells landing on Ukraine’s cities. Tanks continue to remain lined up away from those cities and Russian infantrymen are so far desisting from approaching the major built-up areas to assault and capture them. This war, launched by President Vladimir Putin a month ago, on February 24, is proving to be quite different. It’s not classically conventional and is veering towards combinations: hybrid, conventional and grey zone, all rolled in one.
There are a couple of domains which appear to be characterising the war, now that it’s seen to be going beyond the conventional mode. The Russians, beset with demographic problems which prevent them from accepting too many fatal casualties, are looking at the employment of foreign fighters or simply paid fighters to overcome this problem. A figure of 18,000 Syrian fighters was recently mentioned; probably a quid pro quo for Russia’s assistance from 2015 till the defeat of ISIS. In addition, there are Chechen fighters who are not regulars in the Russian Army. These elements bring shades of disorder in what would have been conventional operations with military order of battle. The fighting norms are also different in the context of the ratios of troops employed, while ruthlessness is also of a higher order. Humanitarian considerations are much lower in priority as the rules of war-fighting seldom apply. The longer this war prolongs, the more the reliance on such elements will increase.
On Ukraine’s side, there are reports that US contractual elements have been training the army and a constant supply of anti-tank weapons and shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles have been making their way to the arena for fairly long; with the success gained by small teams using them effectively at the periphery of urban areas, and many more missiles are said to be in the pipeline.
These personnel may not fit the classic definition of mercenaries but they are deeply involved in training, organising, maintenance of equipment and even logistics; and interior lines available to the Ukrainians are being fully exploited.
Electronic intelligence gathered by these elements with sophisticated equipment has probably helped in homing fire on to command locations of Russian formation commanders; six of whom have reportedly been killed.
Companies like Mosaic and Blackwater are known for their capability in organising resistance, evacuating people from battle zones, with other tasks ranging from armed missions such as convoy protection to feeding and housing troops at military bases. Much of the success being achieved in Ukraine’s fierce resistance and ability to counter the Russian troops’ ground movement has been ascribed to the organisation and leadership brought to the ground by these elements.
So, if the war prolongs with Vladimir Putin unable to gracefully accept the inability of the Russian Army to make headway, it could well turn out to be a war between irregulars. A taste of this existed in Bosnia over 25 years ago. A proxy war with a relatively unique model is likely to emerge, with the potential of this going fairly out of control, with unpredictable consequences. With relatively low levels of control over the irregular elements, especially if some Middle East extremist groups sneak into the conflict zone, it will be difficult to prevent the flow of these into Europe. Post-conflict turbulence is almost certainly guaranteed.
We are also witnessing a high-profile information war blitz by Nato to help Ukraine. Eyeballs across the world are being captured by narratives put on the print and electronic media, that is then further spread via the social media. With special emphasis on humanitarian issues involving displacement of populations, destruction of homes, maternity hospitals under attack and a constant motivational barrage by Ukraine’s leaders to resist and not give in, the information domain is being successfully pursued by Nato and Ukraine.
Unfortunately, little efforts have been shown or any urging projected to put an end to hostilities; the peace cause at present is relatively far behind in priority, with resistance and strikes being the priority. With 142 nations at the UN backing Ukraine and condemning Russia’s invasion, the information domain clearly lies in favour of Nato. Their intent of targeting Russia’s military and civil population through the social media may not have yet penetrated, but sooner than later technologies will probably facilitate the piercing of the “iron curtain” that has been created once again by Russia to promote opaqueness. Russia has imposed a ban on Facebook and Instagram. It does not have equivalent instruments which can carry its messages internationally. More Russians are now using virtual private networks, or VPNs, to get around governmental restrictions on the social media. The demand for VPNs in Russia was much higher on March 14 than before the fighting began. Over 15,000 Russian protesters have been arrested in the past three weeks as new laws have criminalised public statements about Ukraine that do not align with the Kremlin's official view of what it calls the "special military operation”. How far and fast can Nato and the Ukrainian information war reach the Russian public, especially with the main tools absent, will also contribute to the pressure which will be generated internally on the Russian leadership.
Theoretically Russia, as one of the world’s most militarised powers, should face no problems regarding reserves of munitions. However, the organisation for the delivery of this and other logistics appears to be reasonably inefficient. The war’s prolongation will see the employment of Special Forces by both sides to reduce each other’s war-fighting stamina. Ukraine has lost a fair quantum of reserves but the supply chain is open as weapons and equipment are pumped in through the bordering Nato countries. Russia has so far concentrated only on the blockade from the Black Sea, while the western routes are all open. Focusing on these to prevent the ingress of wherewithal will adversely affect efforts around cities, although Russia could comfortably employ its Air Force and leave the neutralising of the cities to gun, missile and rocket units. It may not wish to up the ante any more than what already exists.
Finally, political and military objectives at such a stage get obfuscated and need to be reworked from the original. Russia may seek a face-saver through the eventual capture of one or two cities, retain full control over entire Donbass and execute the Black Sea blockade more rigorously. Regime change may no longer remain an objective. None of this may, however, achieve conflict termination; a proxy war for some time seems to be almost guaranteed.