After the horrific destruction in the 20th century in two World Wars — the second ending with a wanton display of scientific progress and the destruction of thousands of innocent civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki — the victors of the wars vowed “never again”. A new breed of global institutions was created to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, rebuild shattered economies, and maintain global peace. These were the United Nations headquartered in New York and the Bretton Woods institutions — the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — in Washington. Power in these institutions was retained by the victors: in the UN in the five-member Security Council, and in the World Bank and the IMF by the United States and Europe who appoint their own at the top. The UN General Assembly is theoretically democratic. But the real power, of guns and money, is controlled by the Security Council and Washington institutions. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is back in the picture to keep the centre of gravity of global power in the West.
A fresh concept
The power struggle has heated up in and around Ukraine, camouflaged as an ideological war between democracies and dictators. All countries are expected to declare whose side they are on. Institutions of global governance which were supposed to guarantee peace have failed. Clearly, new ideas for global governance are required. A new concept of “inter-generational justice” is gaining traction as a better way of producing a more equitable global order and, hopefully, arresting mankind’s breakneck destruction of the planet despite — or because of? — great advances in technologies.
The answer to the rhetorical question — what sort of world we want to leave for our grandchildren — is to ask them what sort of world they want to live in. Older generations listening to younger generations, rather than younger people following their elders, may be a radical civilisational shift. However, elders listening to youth will not be enough. Youth must also be given charge of producing the world they want to live in. They cannot leave solutions to the older generation whose ways of working have caused these global problems. The problem is that if youth apply the same old ways which are being taught in universities and also learned where they work, they will make global problems worse.
Time is running out
The modern approach to progress, disseminated widely through “STEM” (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) education, is to extract resources from the planet to create new products for human benefit. And then to find new technological approaches to repair the damage caused to the planet by those technologies. Thus, scientific technology goes round in circles. On each round, owners of technologies become wealthier. The people suffering the harm from a relentless growth of economies are advised to be patient until the size of the pie produced is large enough to share with them. Time is running out. The climate is heating up. Inequalities are growing. People are losing their patience. New ways must be found to solve complex global problems.
A new theory of change
The prevalent scientific theory of change is both “outside in” and “top down”. Scientific experts try to be “objective” about the systems they study by placing their minds outside the systems. From their supposedly objective perches, they try to map the systems’ shapes detachedly. Like engineers, they look for levers within systems they can pull to improve efficiency and increase outputs. However, this way cannot work in socio-ecological systems. Because, in them, unlike in machines designed by engineers, social scientists and economists are situated within the systems they wish to observe objectively. Unlike ‘scientific’ design thinkers who try to design systems ‘objectively’, natural systems thinkers learn to live with and within the systems that give them life. They do not feel the need for rockets to take them to other planets after they have spoiled this one.
The global approach to governance is “outside in” and also “top down”. Many disciplines must be brought together to understand the social, economic, and physical facets of complex issues such as climate change. Moreover, stakeholders with conflicting needs must be aligned. Therefore, central coordination seems essential for large-scale change. This is the standard model of a hierarchical organisation, which is applied in the corporate sector, in national governments, and in international development organisations too.
The problem is this is the wrong approach for solving complex global problems. Because experts, remote from the diverse ways in which these complex problems manifest themselves on the ground, are not equipped to find effective solutions for large-scale outcomes. Since standard, “one size”, solutions cannot fit all, not only do their solutions not work well but trust also breaks down between the leaders on top of large international organisations (and the experts who advise them) and people on the ground. This is a principal cause of the rise of populism and revolts against “the Establishment” of ideas and institutions governing the world.
A new configuration, the G7, was formed in the 1970s when the Bretton Woods institutions seemed unable to prevent the global economic crisis caused by large “oil shocks”. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, and Italy formed the G6. Canada and later the European Union, joined later. Russia was invited later (G8) when the Soviet Union collapsed and was swiftly removed in the Crimean war (2014). China, now the second largest economy in the world, was never included. The G7 was expanded to the G20 in the 1990s, when China, Russia, India, Indonesia, and other large economies were added. And now the G20 is being cracked up because the G7 wants to throw Russia out. India will be the chair of the G20 this year and must try to keep the group together.
Power must shift between generations to create a more equitable global order. Less than 10% of the world’s citizens, and less than 6% of the world’s children below 10 years, are in the G7. Power must shift within economies from older persons to youth. Globally, it must shift from the older, so-called ‘advanced’ countries to younger ‘emerging’ economies. The G7 and the Security Council must invite the rest to find new solutions for global problems.
Recycle this wisdom
Inter-generational dialogue is imperative. Though all countries are aging, older persons in economies are not burdens to be cast aside. Already the numbers of older persons in the world exceed the numbers of children below five years, and will soon exceed the numbers below 10. Older persons are humanity’s fastest growing yet least used resource. While power must shift towards younger generations and emerging economies, all generations and countries must work together. All are stages in a larger process of evolution. All must listen to others’ aspirations and must understand others’ wisdom. Emerging economies must not be arrogantly considered, in the colonial legacy, as a ‘white man’s burden’ to be improved by a more advanced West. Many native communities have not yet lost their wisdom of living within natural systems and living as families and communities. Such wisdom on the ground needs to be cycled to the top to save the world for everyone.
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals list 17 complex global problems. They appear in different forms everywhere in the world. Centrally managed organisations cannot solve such problems. Local systems solutions, cooperatively implemented within their communities by old and young persons together, are the way to solve these global systemic problems.
Arun Maira is Chairman, HelpAge International
The great revolt of the masses has overthrown an authoritarian president in Sri Lanka, but it has not abolished the executive presidency. Indeed, on July 18, within days of assuming office as acting President, Ranil Wickremesinghe declared an Emergency, to supposedly ensure the safety of parliamentarians who are to vote for a President on July 20.
A new social contract
Such executive overreach has been the bane of problems in Sri Lanka. There has been no moment in the last four decades more opportune than this to rid the country of this undemocratic institution. Then why are the liberal reformers and lawmakers so reluctant to move on abolishing the executive presidency? It is because the office of the executive president is being projected as the custodian of law, order and property in these tumultuous times. Sri Lanka is in a great moment of revolt, but it is far from a revolution, for a revolution would entail changing our fundamental social relations including property relations. Nevertheless, a radical consciousness is emerging among the masses, who are protesting on the streets and occupying the highest offices of the state.
Such power of the people has unnerved the liberal quarters and international actors who are quick to warn of anarchy, lawlessness and destruction of property. Indeed, the people’s struggle could escalate to occupying private property and demands for redistribution. However, through the many months of the crisis, the government and the Opposition in Parliament have avoided discussing redistribution. They cannot even stomach higher direct taxes, let alone a wealth tax. Instead, their energies go into begging international donors for funds and pushing the country into further debt.
It is these dynamics that are at play when the entrenched liberal political establishment, determined to preserve the neoliberal economic status quo, begins retreating into the constitutionality of the political process. Haven’t the very foundations of our political system been shaken by the greatest protests in Sri Lankan history? This is a moment when the social contract between state and society must be reconstructed. Without a new social contract, there is likely to be a no-holds-barred conflict with the working people.
Factors for political survival
At every moment in the last four months, parliamentary manoeuvres have undermined the protests and attempted to deflect people’s opposition. But those manoeuvres — whether it was the resignation of Cabinet Ministers in April, the appointment of Mr. Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister in May, or the attempts to pass a watered-down Amendment on the Executive Presidency in June — have eventually been confronted by the people’s movement. Similar dynamics are going to be at play when Parliament seeks to elect a President to complete the term of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This time around, it is Mr. Wickremesinghe who has come to symbolise order and preservation of the status quo. His self-interest and the interests of some powerful political and global actors coincide in making him the front-runner for the post of interim President, who will be elected by Parliament. After all, it is clear that in a presidential election requiring the support of a popular majority, he would not stand a chance. He could not even win his seat in Parliament in the last election and only came into Parliament on the sole seat of his United National Party that suffered a terrible defeat.
Mr. Wickremesinghe lacks the social and political base to lead the country. He has no political credibility to speak of, or moral authority, after openly backing the country’s most discredited regime. However, his political survival depends on the support of three significant constituencies. First, the Rajapaksas and their party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), whose social base has been wiped out with mass opposition to their rule. The party is now in desperate need of someone at the helm of state power to protect it. Second, the top brass of the military, whose commander-in-chief and so-called war hero has fled the country, while international sanctions unnerve some in the military leadership. Third, international actors who would like to see their geopolitical interests served in Sri Lanka. Therein lies the great danger for the country.
What was considered a ‘political deal’ between the Rajapaksas and Mr. Wickremesinghe when he was appointed Prime Minister has now come into the open with the SLPP supporting his candidacy. Mr. Wickremesinghe will defend the Rajapaksas and further their interests, as he is dependent on their political base, corrupting politics to the hilt.
Next, he needs the military to suppress the protests as much as the military needs him to protect them. This quid pro quo creates the danger of authoritarian rule through further militarisation. As acting President last week, Mr. Wickremesinghe issued a gazette notification to include more subjects under the purview of the Ministry of Defence, including the Board of Investment, necessary for his authoritarian neoliberal project. Such militarisation will mount under his presidency, in addition to neoliberal policies of dispossession.
And as for international actors, a Wickremesinghe presidency with authoritarian stability will converge with their interests. A leader without a social and political base dependent on them will not just sing but also dance to their tunes, and sell the strategic assets of the country for a song.
First as tragedy, then as farce
InThe 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte , Karl Marx wrote these opening lines about the failed French revolution of 1848: “Hegel remarks somewhere that all facts and personages of great importance in world history occur, as it were, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.” Marx was referring to the tragedy of Napoleon’s adventurous capture of state power and then the farce of his nephew Louis Bonaparte’s claim to be a similar leader many decades later. In Sri Lanka, J.R. Jayewardene’s ascendance to power in 1977, the creation of the executive presidency, the initiation of neoliberal policies, his alignment with the U.S. amidst the Cold War, and the repression of organised labour and the Tamil minority culminating in the civil war, was a devastating tragedy. Now, Mr. Wickremesinghe , Jayewardene’s nephew, has grand ambitions of capturing the presidency, repressing the people’s movement and taking forward the neoliberal project. It is a farce from every angle. Mr. Wickremesinghe has neither the social nor political base of Jayewardene. The people’s movement has become far more politically conscious with the nationwide protests. And the global neoliberal project itself is in crisis now.
Even if Mr. Wickremesinghe were to be elected, his tenure will remain contested, and may last only till the next wave of protests. But it would polarise society, generate a xenophobic backlash against the external actors who back him and ravage the economic lives of people.
Through the manoeuvres of those in power, the people are being pushed to continue on the path from revolt to revolution. If state power is brought to serve a class project in the figure of Mr. Wickremesinghe, the political crisis will aggravate. Who is ready for this wager?
Ahilan Kadirgamar is a political economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna, Sri Lanka
A three-day weekend is not beyond anyone’s dream, and it may soon be a reality. The idea of a four-day week against the usual 40-hour, five-day work week has been mooted for decades. The call for fewer work hours itself is older than the Great Depression. After the reduction of working hours in the 1920s and 1930s led by Henry Ford, from more than 60 hours a week to the current 40, the notion of fewer working hours for the same productivity aided by higher technology grew prevalent. The noted English economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted that his grandchildren would only work about 15 hours a week. Even though the prediction seems a little far-fetched right now, the direction of change seems about right as companies from all over the world toy around with the idea of fewer working hours.
Trial results show benefits
The most recent and widespread adoption of a four-day work week was a trial run by Microsoft in Japan in 2019. The trial was conducted with a typical eight-hour work day for four days and a three-day weekend but a five-day week pay cheque. Microsoft was happy with the result as it saw a 40% increase in worker productivity, presumably due to increased job satisfaction and lower burnouts. Microsoft Japan also reported that a shorter work week led to higher efficiency in the form of lower office costs. It saw a massive 23% dip in electricity costs and a 60% fall in the number of pages printed in the office.
Perpetual Guardian, a New Zealand trust management company, also reported a 20% increase in worker productivity after a similar trial in 2018. Most trials of a four-day work week seem to increase or at least keep constant worker productivity. Gains in productivity also depend on the kind of work. The idea of increased productivity due to a fall in working hours has been carried along since Henry Ford. However, an increase in a worker’s productivity in a manufacturing firm with a decrease in work hours would not mean a similar increase in productivity for an employee in the service sectors such as education or health.
In a larger view, fewer working days will lead to lower commuting and hence have a positive impact on the environment, including a fall in electricity consumption in offices. Lower work hours are also being seen as an important tool to revive employment rates after the novel coronavirus pandemic. The New Deal in the United States mandated overtime pay after 40 hours a week to increase employment after the Great Depression. A similar move is argued to be a viable option to reduce unemployment prevalent in the global economies after the pandemic.
Gains for women
A shorter work week is seen as a welcome step toward gender equality and women’s career progression. A two-day weekend was often not enough for women, especially mothers with young children, as they would not have much time for themselves after all the care work. Women often opt for smaller shifts and shorter work days for lower pay after they become mothers. A four-day work week for everyone instead could ensure pay equality among genders. A three-day weekend may also push men to take up more unpaid domestic work, which would give women more leeway. With enough work-life balance in a four-day work week, women would be able to focus more on work, hence adding to their career prospects.
Not always a virtue
A four-day work week is not one that fits all. The service sector has challenges implementing a four-day work week, especially for small firms. For example, a hairdresser cannot cut more hair by reducing hours; so too a musician in the context of more concerts. This limited applicability is also relevant in schools and hospitals. The sales and marketing departments of firms may also face this issue as there would be less time to chase leads, build customer relations and solve issues. The Centre for Policy Studies, U.K., studied the possible cost of implementing a four-day work week for public sector employees in the United Kingdom. It would cost at least £17 billion, assuming stable productivity but an expanded workforce. Another major drawback is that employees in firms that would not decrease work hours in a four-day work week would have to work 10 hours on working days, which can lead to increased stress and decreased satisfaction. Implementation of a four-day work week can also affect employees’ holiday entitlements.
The Indian scene
A study conducted between February 1 and March 7 across sectors in 2022 by Genius Consultants, in India, found that among 1,113 employers it surveyed, 60% preferred a four-day work week and believed that it would positively affect employee productivity and well-being. Recognising the growing trend, the Central government is set to roll out the new labour codes, which include rules for a flexible four-day work week. On the four-day work week, the new codes stipulate the requirement of a minimum of 48 hours per week; hence the employee will have to work for 12 hours on each working day. The new regulations on the flexible work week with 12 hours of daily work are not likely to increase productivity as the increased per day hours of work would work against employee motivation to increase output. It is well-known that productivity declines after a certain number of hours a day. The draft code should remember that only a reduction in the number of workdays, keeping the number of hours fixed, would contribute to improved labour productivity because better rested and more invigorated workers will be more productive. The extant code may not find many takers since it will find resistance from the workers and companies who very well know it might result in a decline in productivity — thus the total value of the output they produce.
The conventional negative relationship between work hours and productivity is being proven right again through numerous four-day work week trials all across the world. The shorter work week has numerous advantages for employees and employers and can be crucial in increasing productivity and employee well-being, higher employer efficiency, and also increasing employment in the economy. These advantages have led to large strides in this mode of work, such as in Iceland, where 86% of employees have the right to work on a four-day work week. The concern on the applicability of four-day work is real, but examples such as Iceland show that it runs well with a few exceptions. Implementing a four-day work week without a reduction in aggregate working hours such as in India is most likely to fail in yielding the desired advantages. The draft code should not forget the Parkinson’s law that says work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion, and it should be a guiding principle in designing India’s new labour codes.
Santosh Kumar Dash is an Assistant Professor at the Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation (GIFT), Thiruvananthapuram. Sidharth R. is an M.A. student in Economics at the University of Kerala
In the absence of COVID-19, climate change-induced disasters would have been India’s biggest red alert in recent years. The heatwave that scorched Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and New Delhi this year; torrential downpours in south India in 2021; and the super cyclone Amphan that battered West Bengal and Odisha in 2020 are symbols of man-made climate change. But India, like elsewhere, still attributes these catastrophes to the wrath of mother nature rather than anthropogenic global warming.
Temperatures over the Indian Ocean have risen by over 1°C since the 1950s, increasing extreme weather events. India is the fourth worst-hit in climate migration. Heat waves in India have claimed an estimated 17,000 lives since the 1970s. Labour losses from rising heat, by one estimate, could reach Rs. 1.6 lakh crore annually if global warming exceeds 2°C, with India among the hardest hit. India needs a two-part approach: one, to adapt to climate impacts by building resilience against weather extremes, and two, to mitigate environmental destruction to prevent climate change from becoming more lethal.
Climate resilience
Extreme heat waves hit swathes of India. Heatwaves are aggravated by deforestation and land degradation, which also exacerbate fires. Agriculture, being water-intensive, does not do well in heat wave-prone areas. A solution is to promote agricultural practices which are not water-intensive and to support afforestation that has a salutary effect on warming. Financial transfers can be targeted to help farmers plant trees and buy equipment — for example, for drip irrigation that reduces heavy water usage. Insurance schemes can transfer some of the risks of extreme heat faced by industrial, construction and agricultural workers to insurers.
Climate-resilient agriculture calls for diversification — for example, the cultivation of multiple crops on the same farm. There will need to be more localised food production. Weather-based crop insurance would help.
Floods and storms are worsened by vast sea ingress and coastline erosion in the low-lying areas in the south. Southern States need stronger guidelines to avoid construction in locations with drainages. It is vital to map flood-risk zones to manage vulnerable regions. Environment Impact Assessments must be mandatory for commercial projects.
Kerala has some flood-resistant houses constructed on pillars. Communities can build round-shaped houses, considering optimum aerodynamic orientation to reduce the strength of the winds. Roofs with multiple slopes can stand well in strong winds, and central shafts reduce wind pressure on the roof by sucking in air from outside.
Arresting runaway climate change
Adaptation alone will not slow climate damages if the warming of the sea level temperatures is not confronted. Leading emitters, including India, must move away from fossil fuels. But climate mitigation everywhere is painfully slow, because of a lack of political will. India has made slow progress in choosing 2070 as its target for net zero emissions.
Meanwhile, a big part of climate action lies in protecting and expanding forest coverage. Regulation needs to be tightened and enforced to ensure forest protection while acquiring land. India gains from being part of the Glasgow declaration on forest protection that 141 countries signed in 2021.
Management of dams can exacerbate glacier lake outbursts and floods. Nearly 295 dams in India are more than 100 years old and need repairs. In stemming landslides in Uttarakhand, regulations must stop the building of dams on steep slopes and eco-fragile areas, as well as the dynamiting of hills, sand mining, and quarrying. Dams in the southern States can moderate floods, but only if operated year-round to anticipate the need to control flows during floods.
India’s share in disaster management should be raised to 2.5% of GDP. Climate finance is most suited for large-scale global funding from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank. But smaller-scale financing can also be vital: the World Food Programme’s funding for Nepal and Bhutan for community-based adaptation and agricultural resilience for vulnerable communities provides an interesting model.
States can tap into the Union government’s resources, financial and technological, from early warning meteorological systems to centrally sponsored climate schemes. MGNREGA funds can be used for climate adaptation in agriculture, waste management and livelihoods. States could make compensatory payment to local self-government resources being used for climate adaptation. For public pressure to drive climate action, we need to consider climate catastrophes as largely man-made.
Vinod Thomas is Visiting Professor, National University of Singapore. Twitter: @vthomas14
What would have passed off as a non-event has become a talking point in Tamil Nadu politics because of the objection raised by Dharmapuri MP S. Senthilkumar, representing the ruling DMK. Mr. Senthilkumar, who was invited for the bhoomi pooja (ground-breaking ceremony) conducted before the launch of renovation work of a lake in his district, questioned officials of the Water Resources Department (WRD) for inviting only a Hindu priest for performing rituals. His war of words with the officials was recorded and the video tweeted by Mr. Senthilkumar himself. The MP was lauded by Dravidian ideologues, but he received brickbats from the BJP and its affiliated outfits, which saw it as an “anti-Hindu” act.
Mr. Senthilkumar was right in questioning the presence of a Hindu priest at a state function. He was also right in making it clear that a Dravidian government cannot afford to have such rituals. However, he was wrong in asking an official why no Christian priest and Muslim clergy were invited, because government rules do not allow rituals of any religion at government functions. In 1968, during the DMK regime under C.N. Annadurai, Chief Secretary C.A. Ramakrishnan had issued an order directing department heads to remove portraits of gods of all religions from government offices in a phased manner. In 2010, a Bench of the Madras High Court had asked the State government to take all steps to ensure that no religious functions are conducted or religious structures built within the precincts of government offices as stipulated in a Government Order issued by the Personnel and Administrative Reforms Department on December 13, 1993, during the AIADMK regime. The State government, subsequently, issued an order directing officials to follow the 1993 order.
But in reality, neither Ramakrishnan’s order nor the High Court order has been followed. On the contrary, portraits of more deities adorn the walls of government offices, police stations, and buses operated by public transport corporations. Nearly all ground-breaking ceremonies for construction of new government buildings follow Hindu rituals. Even after the DMK came to power, some Ministers and the Chief Minister’s son, Udhayanidhi Stalin, a legislator, have participated in ceremonies conducted by Hindu priests at government functions.
The rituals followed during Ayudha Pooja are an example of the violation of these orders. In the 1980s, transport corporations celebrated Ayudha Pooja as if it were a public festival. The best music troupes were invited to perform on the night of Ayudha Pooja and the depots of the transport corporations were opened to the public to enjoy the music. Even now, all transport corporation buses carry streaks of sandal paste and vermilion, and the pooja is performed by the crew members.
Ramakrishnan’s order also talks of removing portraits and statues of gods in government offices. In India, the problem is that many deities and temples were located in these places even before the government decided to construct a building or an office.
Mr. Senthilkumar wanted to be secular, but it is a tricky task for him and other politicians in the current political context where the DMK is taking pains to counter the BJP’s narrative that it is an “anti-Hindu” party. The truth is that the DMK is not a fully atheist party; a lot of senior leaders happily participate in such ceremonies. The AIADMK, when in power, had never missed these ceremonies. The orders and court directions therefore remain on paper.
A section of DMK leaders feel Mr. Senthilkumar could have politely asked officials to avoid such rituals in his constituency because what happens in other constituencies is not in his hands.
kolappan.b@thehindu.co.in
Two recent pronouncements, one a judicial order and another a public speech by the Chief Justice of India (CJI), have drawn attention to the manner in which bail law operates in the country. While the Supreme Court, inSatender Kumar Antil vs CBI , has sought to expand the scope for the grant of early bail to those arrested without sufficient cause, the CJI, N.V. Ramana, has bemoaned the injury to personal liberty caused by hasty arrests, hurdles in the way of releasing suspects on bail and the prolonged incarceration of those under trial. The expressions of concern are a timely reminder to regimes that have been using their police powers to crack down on critics, activists and those not politically aligned with them. However, there is an irony in courts batting for personal liberty and lamenting indiscriminate arrests on the one hand, but routinely denying bail or postponing bail hearings on the other. Nevertheless, the verdict reiterating the major principles in favour of granting bail and laying down constructive guidelines for arrest is quite valuable. For instance, the Bench has called for standing orders to adhere to theArnesh Kumar (2014) principles, based on Sections 41 and 41A of the Code of Criminal Procedure under which a police officer is required to record reasons for arresting an accused and is expected to issue a notice of appearance in cases involving offences that attract a prison term of less than seven years.
The verdict has other positive aspects: setting time limits for the disposal of bail and anticipatory bail applications and underscoring that an arrest must be made only when actually required, or to prevent the accused from fleeing justice or tampering with evidence. In an interesting contribution, the Bench has mooted a separate ‘Bail Act’ on the lines of the one in the United Kingdom to streamline the bail process. It is indeed true that despite the basics of bail law being quite known, especially that bail is the rule, and its denial the exception, there are glaring inconsistencies over who gets bail, who is denied it and at what stage it is given. A separate law may provide a common reference point, but whether it will put an end to the country’s unstated rule, ‘show me the man, and I will show you the law’, will ever fade away. The state of the magistracy also requires an overhaul. Magistrates seem conditioned to authorising mechanical remand whenever someone is produced before them, and to decline bail as soon as the prosecutor opposes it. Therefore, it is indeed welcome that the Court has made it clear that bail can be considered even without a formal application at the stage of production before the court, or when a person responds to a summons or warrant. More than the law, the police must first put an end to the practice of reflexively arresting first and then fishing for a possible offence.
In a span of four days, Prime Minister Narendra Modi questioned twice the practice of politicians making mindless promises of ever profligate schemes in pursuit of votes, and termed it a dangerous trend. He has a point. In Deoghar, Jharkhand, on July 12, he said it was easy to make populist promises and collect votes through “shortcut” methods. In Jalaun, Uttar Pradesh on July 16, he added flourish to the argument by linking populist proclivity to a sweet dish and termed it ‘revari’ culture. He also advanced his own ‘development as justice’ theory — expressways and power projects, providing gas, toilets and houses in backward areas such as Bundelkhand were all leading to “true social justice”. He was challenging the more commonly understood meaning of social justice in the heartland, which is the expansion of rights defined in terms of caste groups. The Bundelkhand Expressway passes through one of the most underdeveloped regions. What should be the threshold of precariousness at which state interventions such as free food, job guarantees, or cash doles should kick in to provide social security is a debate long overdue. But it should not be forgotten that India is far behind the standards of social security that advanced capitalist democracies guarantee to their citizens.
Perhaps one reason why politicians are showering voters with doles is the disconnect between overall economic growth and job creation. The notion that growth is the panacea for all development challenges is viewed with increasing suspicion by voters, though they may not articulate it in those terms. The clamour for more state intervention for redistribution in democracies must be viewed against the backdrop of mounting evidence of inequality on the one side, and the increasing vulnerability being experienced by classes ranging from white collar workers to farmers on the other. While the situation requires a cool-headed and rigorous inquiry into the development model that the country pursues, many politicians cutting across party lines have resorted to wide-ranging schemes to calm or enthuse voters. Besides the quick political gains that they seek, this also pre-empts any discussion on the existing development paradigm. The Prime Minister would have done better had he opened a debate on the impact of big projects too rather than concluding that they invariably lead to development and social justice. India cannot achieve its development goals in education, health or infrastructure without considerable state support. In what conditions does it become dangerous populism that could ruin the financial stability of the state and when does it function as enabling and empowering welfarism are discussions that are desirable. He may have raised the question rhetorically, but Mr. Modi should now lead the conversation on it, involving Chief Ministers and other actors.
Tokyo, July 18: The Japanese Government to-day indicated for the first time its readiness to eventually accept China’s pre-conditions for the establishment of relations between the two countries. An official reply to an Opposition questionnaire said the Government “can understand as basic knowledge the three principles China has presented for normalisation of relations.” The reply was approved at a Cabinet meeting this morning. The three principles are: China is one and the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate Government of China; Taiwan is an inalienable part of China; and the 1952 Peace Treaty between Japan and Taiwan should be scrapped. The Government’s reply said the Government would work out concrete measures for normalisation of relations on the understanding that the time was ripe for such a move. It went on, “Since the Government can understand the three principles, it will work out concrete measures mutually agreeable.” The most controversial item of the principles — abrogation of the 1952 Peace Treaty — was not touched upon by the previous Government under Mr. Eisaku Sato which issued a policy statement on China in March last.This merely said the Government could understand China’s claim that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. The Government to-day said it also had no plan to abrogate the 1965 basic agreement with South Korea under which the two countries normalised relations and that it had no plan at present to recognise North Korea.
Twenty eight more organisations of political nature have been debarred from accepting any foreign contribution without the prior permission of the Central Government. These include the Congress-I youth bodies – Youth Congress-I and National Students Union of India-I. The Congress-S Youth Congress and Nusi, Yuva Janata Party, Janata Yuva Morcha of BJP and Yuva Lok Dal, Dal Khalsa, Jamat-e-Islami of Srinagar (Kashmir), Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Afghan Liberation Centre of New Delhi and Iranian Students Islamic Association are also all under this bracket. The ban has been imposed under the Foreign Contribution (regulation) Act.
New CM elected
Sripat Mishra was unanimously elected leader of the Congress (I) Legislature Party, succeeding Vishwanath Pratap Singh. He immediately resigned from the speakership of the Assembly. Mishra met Governor C P N Singh in the evening. Mishra’s statement that he would select his colleagues on the basis of merit and performance strengthens the impression that a sizable number of the three-tier 48-member ministry which was headed by V P Singh will be excluded.
Land reforms
The implementation of land reforms continues to be tardy in most states. If the progress since 1980, or even in the first half of the current year when renewed emphasis has been put on land reforms in the renovated 20-point programme is any indication, the target of distribution of the 40 lakh acres of already declared surplus land is unlikely to be achieved by 1985. According to official figures, only 16,279 acres of surplus land has been distributed to the landless since January, 1982. The beneficiaries of land reform during this period totalled 11,016 landless. The area taken possession of in the last six months was 30,932 acres. This shows that most states have not heeded seriously the repeated pleas made by the Centre to pursue the implementation of land reforms vigorously.
Imagine, for a moment, a smart four-year-old. She can count, has self-awareness, recognises shapes, and is capable of remembering and internalising traumatic experiences. She has the capacity to continue learning and expanding her horizons. As it turns out, bees have cognitive capabilities comparable to that four year old child.
In The Mind of a Bee, Lars Chittka, professor of sensory and behavioural ecology at Queen Mary University of London and one of the leading authorities on insects, has found that they are far closer to us than previously imagined. His experiments show that bees can count, recognise and distinguish shapes, have awareness and emotions, and feel pain and internalise trauma. Of course, the insects are hardly the first members of the animal kingdom that scientists believe have a claim to personhood; apes, great and small, elephants, species of whales and dolphins — the list goes on. Chittka’s findings are just one more reason — beyond the utilitarian concerns of human self-preservation — to protect the insects. They are essential to the ecological balance and their dwindling numbers are a symptom of a planet in peril.
But just think for a moment of the implications of how far science has come. There is much talk of colonising Mars, or understanding the mysteries of the Big Bang. The smallest hint of water, the possibility of a single-celled organism on another planet, has the imagination leaping to Star Trek plots. But there is life — meaningful, intelligent life — in the crevices of honeycombs on the third rock from the sun. It is, of course, easier to imagine a chimpanzee as being capable of pain and deserving of sympathy — they look so human. Bugs, though, are the stuff of horror movies (though the revulsion doesn’t extend to the delicious honey some of them produce). Perhaps the possibility of their personhood will mean, from now on, there will be a little less judging of life by its cover.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on July 19, 2022 under the title ‘The buzz of life’.
If there’s one thing that puts the significance of India’s 2 billion Covid jabs landmark in perspective, it’s this: Social and economic life has, by all accounts, returned to pre-pandemic normalcy. Though the virus continues to cause illness, it’s not anything close to the lethal pathogen that was ravaging the country this time last year. Vaccines have changed the course of the pandemic — hospitalisation and fatality rates have been low in the last eight months, even during periods of spike in infection. That the public health emergency was overcome across the country, without the rural-urban divide holding back vaccine distribution, is a commendable feat for regulatory, administrative and medical agencies under the Centre and states, as it is for the countless healthcare workers on the frontlines. It’s true that the country has vaccine manufacturers of proven capability and its child immunisation projects helped mobilise a cadre of reliable vaccinators. Yet the Covid inoculation drive posed unprecedented challenges — regulators had to work on compressed schedules and vaccine hesitancy tested the persuasive powers of local officials and healthcare workers. It wasn’t always smooth sailing. The supply mechanism broke down when the Centre left the states to their devices during the second wave and it required the Supreme Court’s nudge, in June last year, for the vaccination drive to gather momentum.
Last week, the Centre began a special 75-day drive in which the third precautionary dose is being administered free at all government vaccination centres. This is a welcome initiative. The jury, though, is still out on the efficacy of the current lot of vaccines against the sub-variants of the Omicron strain that is responsible for most of the Covid infections today. Conversations in several developed countries have moved on to countering these relatively less virulent strains that leave lingering effects on patients. Last month, pharma majors Pfizer and BioNtech announced that a booster dose of their vaccine candidate had yielded a “significantly higher response against Omicron” in clinical trials. Experts, however, caution against laying much store on these initiatives, given the virus’s capacity to develop vaccine-resistant versions. They also point out that regular administration of boosters is not feasible. Some experts believe that the answer to this predicament lies in a pan-variant vaccine, one that can tackle all coronaviruses. As in most aspects of the pandemic, there is no unanimity amongst experts on this question. That said, at least 10 universal candidates are in different stages of development. India should not be an outlier in these experiments.
Last month, in recognition of India’s position on intellectual property rights on vaccines, the WTO agreed to waive patents on Covid vaccines. Vaccine manufacturers in India shouldn’t lose this opportunity to initiate conversations with laboratories where work on the universal vaccine is on — other than pharma majors, these include universities and non-profits. If need be, the government should enable such efforts. The lessons from the past one-and-a-half years should guide the next round of vaccinations.
Notwithstanding day-to-day flickering, over the past few weeks, prices of several commodities have seen a moderation. Crude oil prices are now hovering around levels last seen prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Bloomberg commodity price index has also witnessed a correction. Prices of industrial metals have softened — copper, aluminum and nickel have all trended lower. International food prices have also fallen for the third straight month — the FAO’s food price index averaged 154.2 in June, down from the high of 159.7 in March, seen just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This souring of sentiment can be traced to fears of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve triggering a recession in the US, coupled with the softening of demand due to recent curbs in China to contain the spread of Covid. This softening of commodity prices will have a moderating influence on inflation across the world.
In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to be optimistic on the trajectory of inflation. Over the past few weeks, statements by the RBI governor and deputy governor suggest that the central bank views inflation as having peaked. Its latest state of the economy report says that the “worst of inflation may be behind us”. As per the report there are several indications to this effect. First, financial markets will succumb to fears of a recession considering the aggressive tightening by central banks across the world. Second, easing of commodity prices and supply chain pressures will further help cool prices. And then there is the softening of global demand.
A few weeks from now, the monetary policy committee of the RBI will hold its next meeting. Over the course of the past two meetings, the MPC has hiked the repo rate by 90 basis points to 4.9 per cent, 25 basis points lower than the pre-pandemic level. The recent softening of commodity prices will now weigh on the committee members as they chart the way forward. However, despite this moderation in commodity prices, price pressures in the pipeline remain — the wholesale price index continues to remain elevated, coming in at 15.2 per cent in June. In fact, projections by most analysts do not see inflation trending down in line with the central bank’s target over the near term. The MPC should stay the course. It must frontload the interest rate hikes to prevent the unanchoring of inflationary expectations.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on July 19, 2022 under the title ‘See it through’.
My friend Bhupinder Singh has passed away. His was a voice that could convey so many things — there was longing, love, loss. It reflected his soft soul, the kindness that he had in him and his largeness of heart and spirit. His personality and incredible talent mean that his death is a loss to the music industry. But it is also a personal loss for me.
I got to know Singh when I first entered the industry, back in 1977. The music composer Jaidev had given me my first break and I was very close to him. Singh had been singing regularly for Jaidev and they were very good friends. So I wound up sitting through a number of Singh’s rehearsals, observing his process. Every time, I would have a number of questions to ask him about his music and technique, to each of which he would always give exactly the right answer, a beautiful answer. Over time, he came to be a guide for me and gave me advice on what and how to sing. I looked up to him as an inspiring force. We also worked together a number of times, notably when we sang Gujarati songs for Ajit Sheth.
Many qualities made Singh the artist that he was. In the first place, his music was always soulful and classy. Look at the list of songs he sang for Bollywood, compositions by the likes of Madan Mohan, Jaidev, R D Burman, and a number of Gulzar songs he performed. He always got the best of songs, because he could emote at a level that very few can. One could describe him as the “creme de la creme” of singers. He worked with the right kind of composer, like Jaidev or Madan Mohan, who could make full use of the gravitas of his voice.
Singh was extraordinarily talented in so many ways. He was an amazing guitar player and composer. As a singer, he had what is known as a “mehfili andaaz”. He could sing a particular ghazal in one raga, and then seamlessly change it to another raga. And he always managed to imbue his ghazals with deep spirituality. In a sense, Singh was a fakir — a carefree man who was, first and foremost, an artist. He was guided by a total love for music that took him through Bollywood music, ghazals, bhajans. He was also a very generous person — a “badshahi” person – who was kind to everyone, regardless of who they are.
Each of Singh’s songs is an everlasting part of his legacy, whether it was ‘Do deewane sheher mein’ from Gharonda (Jaidev), sung with Runa Laila, or ‘Dil dhoondta’ from Mausam (Madan Mohan). His achievements were towering and while he did get a Sangeet Natak Akademi Award late in life, he should have been given a Padmashree a long time ago. Such an honour is about quality, not about singing thousands of songs.
The last time I met him was just before the Covid-19 pandemic struck. Along with a couple of others from our fraternity, I went to meet him. He hadn’t been well for a couple of years, his knees had been troubling him. But like the “badshah” that he was, he ensured we had a grand time, sharing stories and singing. His style, in both music and life, was inimitable. With Bhupi gone, an era is over.
Hemant Tukaram Godse is the Lok Sabha Member of Parliament (MP) representing Nashik, Maharashtra. When the voters of Nashik first sent him to Parliament in 2014, he found himself in a peculiar position. His surname was considered unparliamentary. Parliamentary rules specify that presiding officers can delete words from the day’s proceedings that they consider defamatory, indecent, unparliamentary or undignified.
In 1956, a Lok Sabha MP referred to Mahatma Gandhi’s assassin Nathuram Godse during the debate on a bill. The presiding officer deleted the name from the day’s written record, and the parliament secretariat added it to its compilation of unparliamentary expressions. Shortly after Hemant Godse was elected, the presiding officer of Rajya Sabha deleted the word “Godse” from the House proceedings. It prompted the MP to write to the presiding officers of both Houses, arguing that they should not hold his surname to be unparliamentary.
In the early days of parliamentary functioning in England, members would challenge one another to a duel if they felt dishonoured by another member’s speech. It led to the Speaker of the House of Commons removing the offending words from the written proceedings. In 1873, the constitutional theorist Erskine May started recording words and expressions that the Speaker considered unparliamentary in an eponymous guide to parliamentary procedure. Later editions of the book laid down the principle of parliamentary language. It states, “good temper and moderation are the characteristics of parliamentary language. Parliamentary language is never more desirable than when a member is canvassing the opinions and conduct of his opponents in debate.”
MPs have freedom of speech in Parliament. But the presiding officers of Parliament have the final authority on what gets recorded in the day’s proceedings. For example, in 2020, when the Prime Minister was replying to the debate on the Motion of Thanks to the President’s address, he used a word that the Chairman of Rajya Sabha deleted from the day’s proceedings. MPs can also draw attention to any unparliamentary words and urge the chair to delete them. Parliament television also edits its video recording of the debate to reflect the deletion. Any reporting of the parliamentary discussion that includes the deleted portion is a breach of parliamentary privilege and invites the ire of the House. Deleted words are then added by the parliament secretariat to its compilation of unparliamentary expressions.
In any language, the context in which an individual uses a word is critical. In 1983, in the House of Commons, an MP used the word “fascist” to describe a colleague. The Speaker struck it from the record and held, “whether a word should be regarded as unparliamentary depends on the context in which it is used. Context is all-important. “Context” means how the word is said, the circumstances in which it is said and when it is said. In the context yesterday I am satisfied that the use of the word fascist was intended to give offence to a member and amounted to a reflection on his honour”.
The current controversy surrounding the addition of unparliamentary words in a Lok Sabha publication raises three questions. First, is a list of restricted words helpful in maintaining decency in parliamentary debates? Second, will such a list help in promoting or stifling discussion? And third, do we trust our MPs to have a dignified debate in Parliament or do we need to provide them with a guidebook of expressions that are not to be used?
Technological advances have ensured that Parliament can no longer control how its proceedings are recorded and disseminated. As a result, even if Parliament edits its record, the unparliamentary expression will be available online. In such a scenario, a compilation of the words classified as unparliamentary will not deter an MP from using them and act as a ready reference for using such words on the floor of the House. Parliament is all about the cut and thrust of debate. And in a political discussion, a restriction of unparliamentary expression, without considering context, will unnecessarily stifle the voices of MPs.
And lastly, we don’t have a choice but to trust MPs to act as role models when they debate in Parliament.
The writer is head of outreach, PRS legislative research
For an India that is recasting its engagement with the Middle East, the lessons from US President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia are doubly important. Biden’s visit highlights not only some new trends that are reshaping the region but also eternal truths about international politics that are lost in the din of public discourse about the Middle East.
First, contrary to the popular perception in the US, the region, and India, the US is not about to abandon the Middle East. Until recently, it became quite a common conviction among liberals as well as conservatives in the US that the time has come for American retrenchment from the messy politics of the region. Many in the US political class believed that given America’s oil independence from the Middle East — thanks to the dramatic expansion of hydrocarbon production in the US in recent years —Washington no longer needed the region. The precipitous American withdrawal from Afghanistan last year intensified these concerns and the region looked for alternative means to secure itself. But as in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the Biden Administration has concluded that it can’t cede its regional primacy in the Middle East and is ready to reclaim its leadership. As Biden told Arab leaders at a summit in Jeddah, the US is not leaving the Middle East and that America “will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran”.
Second, while the US will stay put in the Middle East, it is certainly changing the manner in which it acts. In the past, the US saw itself as the sole provider of regional security and was ready to send its troops frequently into the region. Biden told the Arab leaders that his trip was the “first time since 9/11, an American President is visiting this region without American troops being engaged in a combat mission in the region”.
While the US does not want to be drawn directly into the region’s wars, it is determined to help its partners develop capabilities to secure themselves. Equally important is the effort to produce greater reconciliation among Arabs and Israel and create stronger networks within and beyond the region to strengthen deterrence against adversaries. The current effort to craft a Middle East Air Defence coalition is an example of this. Under the MEAD, the US, Israel and some of the Arab nations are collaborating to prevent missile and other aerial attacks. The I2U2 signals that the US no longer views the Middle East in isolation from its neighbourhood.
Third, Biden had to modify his sweeping rhetoric about the “conflict between democracies and autocracies” as the principal contradiction in the world. To sustain the US position in the region, Biden had no option but to sit with leaders of monarchies and autocracies that are America’s long-standing partners. Sweeping ideological propositions rarely work in practice. The Middle East, in particular, is a place where ideologies come to die.
Fourth, even more consequentially, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia demonstrated that “interests” generally tend to triumph over “values” in the conduct of foreign policy. During his campaign for the presidency, Biden vowed to isolate the Saudi state from the global community. Biden was responding to the outrage in the US against the killing of Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in the Istanbul consulate in 2018. Biden’s words seemed to have little cost when he said them. But now, as US President, he had the acute discomfort of publicly eating those words during his trip to the region, agreeing to a fist bump with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. With domestic media and political opponents focusing on his past rhetoric, Biden put his head down to do what was right for the US — to repair the relationship with Saudi Arabia — amidst the pressing need to cool down the global oil market and ease domestic inflation just months before the midterm elections in America.
Fifth, Biden’s focus on national interest found an echo in the Middle East, which is learning to put nation above other identities such as ethnicity and religion. In the past, the region seemed immune to nationalism as it focused on transcendental notions of “pan Arabism” and “pan Islamism”.
There is plenty of evidence that the old illusions are being discarded. Neither the Arab League nor the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation has met the objectives of their founders. Although the idea of Arab solidarity on the Palestine issue endures, many Arab leaders are not willing to let that come in the way of normalisation of relations with Israel.
A critical section of the Arabs, long seen as irreconcilably opposed to Israel, are now joining hands with the Jewish state to counter threats to their national security from Iran. Their shared Islamic identity with Iran does not translate into common perceptions of regional security. In fact, the contradiction between Arabs and Iran has emerged as a major fault line in the region. Consider the case of Iraq too.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein led to the empowerment of the Shia majority in the country. Arabs who had backed the US invasion watched warily as Shia Iran rapidly gained influence inside Iraq. But Baghdad has been unwilling to subordinate its Iraqi identity or Arab ethnicity to Shia solidarity with Iran. Iraq, which is both Shia and Arab, has found that it can play the role of an independent bridge between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Many Gulf kingdoms, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now consciously promoting a national identity among their peoples. They are celebrating “national days” and creating greater popular awareness of national histories and heritage. While the Gulf kingdoms have no reason to discard their pan-Arab or pan-Islamic positions, the pursuit of their national interests acquires a higher priority. Once you define yourself as a nation-state, your focus is less on identity politics and more on state interests. This, in turn, leads to shifting geopolitical coalitions over time and space. It is this new reality that dominates the region.
There was a time when Israel aligned with non-Arab Muslim states like Iran and Turkey to enhance its room for manoeuvre against the Arabs. Today, it is championing the cause of Arabs against Iran. Turkey, a NATO ally of the West, collaborates with Russia on some issues and competes with it on others. Despite shared religion, Turkey’s leader Recep Erdogan has in recent years sought to undermine many of the Arab regimes. Qatar has often found itself closer to non-Arab Turkey and in opposition to its Gulf Arab neighbours.
The Middle East was never an easy place for those spouting ideologies of various kinds or those with a weak appetite for geopolitical hard work in the region. Its politics has become even more complex in recent years. Delhi, whose Middle East policy today is imbued with greater realism, can hopefully discard the inherited ideological inertia, avoid the temptation of seeing the Middle East through a religious lens, and strive hard to realise the full possibilities awaiting India in the region.
The writer is Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi and contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
Ever since the military seized power in Myanmar by toppling the Aung San Suu Kyi-led popular civilian government, the Tatmadaw has gone on a rampage, killing ethnic natives, displacing half a million Myanmarese within the country and forcing more than 50,000 ethnic Chin and others to seek refuge outside. The death estimates vary widely: Human Rights Watch (HRW) puts the number at 1,700 and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project claims it to be 12,000. While the exact figure may never be known, the HRW has accused the junta regime of perpetrating “crimes against humanity”.
On the first anniversary of the coup, UN Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet remarked that what had started as a popular uprising in the wake of the coup has morphed into a “civil war”, with the popular forces putting up a stiff fight under the banner of the People’s Defence Forces (PDF). The PDF largely comprises young people who prefer to call themselves “revolutionaries”, and professionals like doctors, engineers, academics and defected police officials. Against all odds, they seem determined to take the fight to its logical conclusion — to liberate Myanmar from the junta and restore genuine democracy.
One of the spin-offs of the political turmoil in Myanmar has been an unprecedented schism between the Indian government and the Mizoram state government. The state has been in the eye of a storm that has gathered over its decision to take in Chin refugees — their number has swelled to more than 30,000. The Chin refugees currently in Mizoram are not refugees who have simply run away to save their lives. They are rebels who have opted to go into self-exile and continue to extend support to the PDF and other anti-Tatmadaw militias like the Chin Defence Force and the Chin National Army.
What is notable about the centre-state schism is the Mizoram government’s defiance of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) orders to “detect and deport the refugees”. The state government, backed by the civil society at large, has not only extended a warm welcome to everybody wanting to come in but has also strongly communicated to New Delhi that it cannot be “indifferent” to its concerns. Despite an MHA advisory “… to stay alert and take appropriate action to prevent a possible influx into Indian territory” and further reminding the Northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram that share borders with Myanmar that they have no powers to grant “refugee status to any foreigner”, the Mizoram government has exhibited exceptional magnanimity to the refugees — something which is usually expected of the Centre, since such issues fall squarely within its purview.
The contrast in the responses of the two governments emanates from the security-centric approach of the Centre and the people-centred focus of the Mizoram government. While the Centre’s tough stance could be rooted in geopolitical considerations, what is puzzling is its invocation of India’s non-ratification of the 1951 UN Convention on the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol as a ground for denying asylum. Not being a party to the Convention does not preclude any state from granting asylum. Moreover, even non-signatories are bound under customary international law to follow the principle of non-refoulment that protects the rights of asylum seekers not to be deported or pushed back to the country they have fled to escape violence in the first place.
The roots of the state government’s open defiance lie in the common history of the Mizos and Chins and the unique social-political realities between the two people at the India-Myanmar international border. They share a strong ethnic bond predating India’s Independence, as they come from the same larger Zo tribe. The two are also bound together by a common religion: Mizos are predominantly Christians, as are the Chin people of Buddhist-majority Myanmar.
Along the largely unfenced Mizoram-Myanmar border, people from both sides have traditionally moved in and out freely. The Free Movement Regime (FMR) in 2018 between India and Myanmar legalised this practice. The FMR allows both the Mizos and Chins on either side to go up to 16 km on the other side and stay up to 14 days. This has facilitated ease of movement wherein a large number of borderlanders routinely cross over on either side for work and to meet relatives. Cross-border marriages are common, and so is trade in essential commodities.
There is also a fairly long history of mutual empathy and solidarity between the Mizos and the Chins. From the 1960s to the 1980s, the Chin people extended open support and sanctuary to the members of the Mizo National Front, who were fighting for secession from the Indian Union. Similarly, when the Chins were subjected to brutal repression at the hands of the junta regime during the 1988 pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, the Mizos extended a helping hand. A large number of people from the Chin State of Myanmar who had come into Mizoram then decided to stay on and eventually got integrated into the social fabric of the Mizo society.
Given all this, it appears that the Centre has probably gauged the sensitivity of the issue from the vantage point of the Mizos and has somewhat softened its aggressive posture towards both the Mizoram government and the Chin refugees after more than one year of their stay in the state. It may do even better by owning up to the refugees and helping the state government sustain the relief work, which the latter might not be able to carry out on its own in the long run: Given the volatile situation in Myanmar, the Chin refugees are likely to stay put for long. Much would depend on how the Centre recalibrates its policy toward the refugees and their hosts. As the largest democracy in the world, India must reach out to the freedom fighters in Myanmar who are spearheading a civil disobedience movement to restore what was until recently a fledgling democracy.
The writer teaches at the department of political science, Panjab University, Chandigarh
“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin but by the content of their character.” Martin Luther King Jr.
More than 10 crore Indians, spread across 700 communities, are seeing a reflection of themselves, as one among them is set to occupy the highest constitutional office in the country. For a long time, in the history of our republic, the structures of power and governance were dominated by a select few. Although mentioned in the Preamble of the Constitution, justice and equality remained a ceremonial ideal on the walls of the government offices, from village panchayats to Parliament. Representation and dignity remained a distant dream for the socially disadvantaged sections of our society. This is why the selection of Droupadi Murmu as the NDA presidential candidate is a defining moment. Murmu has ignited hope and aspiration in the hearts of millions of young girls and boys from the Dalit and the Adivasi samaj. The fact that she will succeed a man from a Dalit community makes it even more meaningful for students of social justice.
The approach of a section of the Opposition parties in this case is regrettable. At one level, Murmu got the endorsement of a substantial group of non-NDA parties like the BJD, YSR Congress, JMM and the Shiv Sena, but she was verbally attacked by the senior Congress leader Ajoy Kumar, who said she represented “the evil philosophy of India”. She was also accused of being just a murti (sculpture) by Tejashwi Yadav. Parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal owe their existence to the idea of social justice but this mockery of a woman from a tribal community will not disappear from the collective subaltern memory. They are on the wrong side of history. Murmu, apart from being an able administrator as a governor, has also been recognised as one of the best performing MLAs by the Government of Odisha. Women in New India no longer require a particular surname, lineage or a pedigree to realise their limitless potential.
Similarly, the choice of Jagdeep Dhankhar for the position of Vice President is remarkable in multiple ways. His public life as an elected representative and a legal activist will certainly provide an extra edge in running the affairs of the Rajya Sabha. As a senior counsel of the Supreme Court for more than two decades, Dhankhar will definitely make the most of his expertise for deriving the maximum possible legislative output in the usually chaotic Rajya Sabha.
There are many firsts in terms of diversity and inclusion of those who remained excluded, from the Padma awards and the Presidential nominations to significant representation in critical places like the council of ministers. Durgabai Vyam and Sakini Ramachandraya, both from tribal communities, were chosen for the Padma awards. Three women from the Dalit community and a young voice from the Pasmanda group were included in the Uttar Pradesh council of ministers for the first time. This is the real democratisation, where the source of power is decentralised with the purpose of empowering the marginalised.
The victory of Murmu and Dhankhar is written on the wall. The poverty of imagination and the sheer condescension displayed by a section of the Opposition for these elections will hopefully serve as a lesson for future generations of political activists. While the vision of the makers of the Constitution was being realised, parties like the Congress and RJD ensured hassles as a woman from the Santhal community marched towards Rashtrapati Bhawan.
What the Opposition desperately needs today is a new political vocabulary. In New India, everyone is a stakeholder. Being stuck in the old-time narrative of caste and class will not work now. When the focus of the government is towards saturation (truptikaran) in terms of implementation of the schemes, the Opposition is stuck in the appeasement (tushtikaran) of communities.
The writer is assistant professor, Patna University and national spokesperson, BJP
Sri Lanka’s Parliament will elect a new president tomorrow after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and relinquished the post. Three candidates are in the fray – acting president Ranil Wickremesinghe, National People’s Power leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and
Dullas Alahapperuma of a faction of the SLPP supported by leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa. Whoever is elected will no doubt have a tough job on his hands. The Sri Lankan protests have now gone on for more than 100 days and the protesters are determined not to
disperse until they bring about a complete change in the country’s political system, including abolishing of the presidency.
It, therefore, remains to be seen if the new president is acceptable to the protesters. The latter have actually demanded an interim government and the drafting of a new Constitution for Sri Lanka. There is great distrust for the entire political class. Hence, if the new president veers from the protesters’ demands, Sri Lanka’s woes could further deepen. The best-case scenario would be if the new political executive is able to set the ball rolling on the Constitution drafting process and meanwhile stabilise the Sri Lankan economy.
India, which emerged as Sri Lanka’s top lender in the first four months of this year, should continue supporting its neighbour. New Delhi has generated considerable goodwill among Sri Lankans for its crisis support to Colombo. This puts it strategically in a good place. Given the close relationship the Rajapaksas shared with China, and the blame that Chinese loans have attracted for Sri Lanka’s economic woes, nobody in Sri Lanka would want to be associated with the Chinese in the near term. India has rightly stood with the Sri Lankan people. It
should now help Colombo come out of this crisis decisively.
India’s cumulative vaccination coverage crossed the 2 billion doses mark yesterday morning. There’s a surge in daily uptake now on account of an increase in booster shots after GoI announced free jabs beginning July 15. India’s vaccination coverage, which has crossed 66% of the population for the full protocol of two doses, is the most important public health intervention in the fight against Covid. The lessons from its rollout will help combat future health emergencies.
The overall cost of vaccination has been modest. By February 7, the vaccination coverage hit 1.7 billion for a total cost of Rs 27,945 crore, less than 1% of the overall Union budget expenditure for 2021-22. A key reason for the rapid ramp-up of vaccination in the second half of 2021 was that it was free in government centres. There are two reasons why this helped. Out of pocket expenditure on overall health spending in India is 65%, a relatively high level. In addition, Covid extracted an economic cost in terms of job losses. Given these factors, free vaccination was critical in expanding coverage fast.
India’s booster programme didn’t capitalise on these lessons. Boosters were initially not free for adults. Some states showed what was missing. Bihar, for example, in the last week of April made boosters free for everyone over 18 years and uptake increased consistently after that. From the last week of April to the July 9-15 week, there was almost an eight-fold increase in uptake, to 8.37 lakh. Even GoI’s free booster announcement resulted in an immediate uptick and it contributed to around 80% of the total jabs yesterday.
There were other missteps in the booster policy. Local trials on the booster were belated and when the rollout did start, India avoided heterologous boosting. Results of the trials conducted by CMC Vellore show that heterologous boosting provides enhanced immunity. Governments must understand that collective benefits of public health interventions far exceed any cost. The economic output in 2020-21 shrunk by Rs 9.57 lakh crore as lockdowns were used in the absence of vaccines. Juxtaposed against this loss, the free vaccination programme cost a tiny fraction. In a country with low per capita income, public health must be treated as a crucial public good.
Chhattisgarh police’s evident failure to properly investigate and prosecute the 2017 Burkapal encounter – 25 CRPF personnel were killed – has had two grave consequences: 121 Adivasi men, now acquitted, languished for five years in prison, leaving their families destitute, and the brave CRPF jawans have been denied justice. The en masse acquittal suggests that police may have been on a desperate fishing expedition and rounded up men in their 20s and 30s from nearby villages.
There are grounds to suspect that actual Maoist perpetrators escaped the police. First, the police couldn’t prove that the accused men were at the crime spot, possessed deadly firearms, or were Maoists. Second, the 20 prosecution witnesses the police had arraigned couldn’t identify the accused and, more tellingly, revealed they had made no statements to cops. Third, five witnesses didn’t even support the police claim on them being witness to various arrests and seizures. Some accountabilities must be fixed for such shoddy policing and prosecution work – political pressure for results is no excuse. Also, since this was a high-profile case, senior cops including IPS officers would have vetted the chargesheet.
Though Law Commissions and constitutional courts have argued for independence of the prosecution department, in states like Chhattisgarh this is headed by a senior IPS officer, instead of a lawyer who rises up prosecutorial ranks. Consequently, prosecutors lack heft to point out weaknesses in chargesheets and end up as mouthpieces of the police version, however poorly crafted that may be. An empowered, independent prosecutor would have likely called out the police investigation as insufficient much earlier. But the Indian system gives investigating officers the upper hand. Another travesty of this case is that some alleged masterminds have reportedly got amnesty under the government’s surrender policy. Arrest and incarceration like those suffered by Chhattisgarh’s 121 Adivasis recur with alarming regularity. Not surprisingly, the poor and the vulnerable are usually those who are put through the investigative grinder. An effective disincentive would be to make the state pay monetary compensation to victims of grossly negligent police investigation.
Telecom companies have put up earnest money for auction of 5G spectrum. This is in line with expectations that they will bid for around a quarter of the airwaves GoI has put on sale in this round. This is in step with previous spectrum auctions where muted interest saw bidding converge on high reserve prices and chunks of frequencies remaining unsold. Hopes of a better administered mechanism for selling airwaves were raised this time with GoI having thrown a lifeline to the debt-laden industry through easier revenue-sharing and scrapping of spectrum-use fees. But the administered base price for spectrum, even after being reduced considerably, remains much higher than in other countries. In this, the government is upholding a tradition of charging high upfront fees, rather than gaining tax revenue through faster rollout of the latest generation of telecommunications services.
India is behind in 5G adoption. But it will gain from the ecosystem that has developed with its global spread. Nearly a third of all smartphones that are currently being shipped can operate on 5G networks. Indian telecom companies are likely to have a sizeable user base by the time they launch their services in a year's time. Global supply disruptions that led to a chip shortage have bypassed 5G-enabled handsets, whose prices are falling reasonably rapidly. These devices are also designed to operate on the cheaper bands offered in this auction that are expected to draw more interest from bidding telecom companies. Indians may not get the full benefits of 5G networks immediately because the globally accepted band has been priced higher. But the transition will be smoother with no imminent device shortage.
This auction also opens the field to private networks that want to roll out 5G enterprise services faster than what the national telecom service providers might be able to offer. This could help India speed up its digital transformation. It could, however, have a bearing on the pace of upgrading consumer networks.
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Switzerland's Federal Supreme Court has ruled that Swiss authorities will share information with Indian tax authorities about the beneficiaries of foreign trusts set up there without judging the data's end use. The ruling reiterates the exchange of information pact between the two countries in the revised tax treaty in 2011. The revision came after Switzerland ended banking secrecy laws, making it possible for foreign governments to pursue suspected tax evaders. India now has the information and the laws. How the information is used and the law invoked will determine the maturity of the tax administration.
Wealthy Indians created discretionary trusts to avoid coming under the tax department's scanner. In 2014, the Supreme Court had ruled in the 'Commissioner of Wealth Tax, Rajkot vs Estate of Late HMM Vikramsinhji of Gondal' case that the taxpayer, a beneficiary of a discretionary trust, was not assessable, on the income of the trust until such income was disbursed by the trustees. This is a general principle, and the challenge before tax authorities is to establish the source. Any presumption that offshore trusts have illicit money would be unfair. Some fear that authorities could retroactively apply the stringent Black Money (Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets) and Imposition of Tax Act to impose 'criminal' sanctions. This underscores the need for tax authorities to complete investigations swiftly, leading to the closure of the case in a reasonable timeframe.
Globally, the need is also to have a directory of the actual beneficial owner of any trust or company. Every individual holder of financial securities, whether persons or juridical entities, should have a unique identifier, so that the ultimate beneficiary can be traced, even if the person stays beyond a web of companies or trusts.
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There is a need for a broader international collaboration before cryptocurrency regulations can be drawn up in India, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Parliament this week. Developments over the summer indicate the need may now be pressing. In May, an entire currency — known as the Terra/Luna stablecoin pair — and a crypto-based lending platform known as Celsius crashed, wiping out tens of millions of dollars of wealth. Searching with just these names on social media services such as Twitter and Reddit offer grim personal stories — most investors were small, and the money they put in was often their life’s savings. After almost trebling in value through 2021, the estimated market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies is down 60% in the first half of 2022.
This has pushed countries to draw up regulations. On June 30, the European Union (EU) made it a legal necessity for so-called stablecoins, which peg their value to a currency such as the dollar or the euro, to maintain reserves in fiat currency. Stablecoins are of particular concern since the Terra/Luna collapse showed their veneer of stability may, in fact, be an impossibility. The EU also empowered its market regulator to restrict or ban exchanges, which serve as important intermediaries. Similar provisions are being considered by the US. Meanwhile, the futility of models like self-regulation seems to be coming into view. Japan’s Virtual Currency Exchange Association, set up in 2018, is now a divided house. Unable to agree on policies and interventions, it is now under fire from Japan’s main financial regulator for not doing enough to protect investors.
In India, the Reserve Bank of India apparently wants a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies. This is not without reason, for India still grapples with the challenges of financial literacy. Its domestic digital payments revolution, for instance, gave rise to a new breed of scammers who targeted mobile wallets, even as traditional frauds such as ponzi scams continue to thrive. The minister, however, indicated there needs to be a better understanding of the risks as well as benefits, and a common taxonomy and standards must first be drawn up globally. This is a pragmatic approach since an open mind to new technologies is crucial for India’s aims to transition into Digital India. But the wild swings of the crypto market also demonstrate that the window for India, and the world, to come to a consensus on laws to protect citizens may be rapidly closing.
There are two irrefutable facts about the Himalayas. First, they are the world’s youngest mountain range, prone to landslides and flash floods. Second, the climate crisis-related extreme weather events and the pace of infrastructure development have added to the natural vulnerability of the region. Therefore, it is important to handle the region, which straddles 13 Indian states and Union Territories, with care and a commitment to keep the vulnerable area intact. But that commitment is apparently under stress. On July 14, the ministry of environment, forest and climate change amended the environmental impact assessment policy 2006, to exempt highways in border areas from environmental clearance. Under the new policy, the developers of highways in border areas will only have to ensure self-compliance of a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) notified by the Centre from time to time. In other words, they will have to self-certify their work.
The Centre’s view (presented before the Supreme Court in the Char Dham case) has been that highways are essential for national security. Therefore, in many cases, they need to be executed on priority keeping in view the strategic, defence and security considerations. So, exempting such projects from the requirement of environmental clearance in the border areas is necessary.
National security and development considerations are no doubt essential but it is also crucial that the government invests time and energy to ensure that such projects don’t lead to more environmental problems, which will not only endanger local populations but also national security. What use is a road blocked with debris or inundated by flood water? The reckless cutting of legacy forests, the muck dumping in the rivers, and the increasing air pollution in these once pristine areas are affecting people in the region as well as those who live downstream. At a time when the climate crisis is ravaging India, the government would do well to reconsider these blanket exceptions and instead focus more carefully on maintaining the ecological balance.
Last week, the United States (US) House of Representatives approved an India-specific amendment as a part of the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual legislation that funds America’s defence.
It is first important to note what the amendment, proposed by Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna, does not do.
The amendment does not give India a sanctions waiver for its purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia, which can be triggered under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The authority to give the waiver rests with the executive.
The amendment is not yet a part of the law. The Senate is yet to pass its version of NDAA. Once it does, the House and Senate versions will be reconciled in a conference. While all Senators have a voice, Senate foreign relations committee chair, Robert Menendez, will be a key figure in the decision.
The amendment is also not a standalone provision. It was passed in a voice vote along with 100+ amendments to the NDAA in the House.
Contrary to Khanna’s claims, the amendment is also nowhere as significant as the nuclear deal, a pathbreaking pact that required overcoming legislative hurdles. The NDAA provision is useful for India, but not essential.
But, at the same time, the amendment is politically significant. Here is why.
One, at a time when Russia is the big villain in American public discourse and the US is seeking to militarily defeat Russia in Ukraine and cripple Moscow financially, the fact that 330 members of the House were willing to overlook India’s purchase of Russian defence equipment and refusal to condemn Moscow is significant. The fury of February and March, when the Hill was particularly vocal about its unhappiness about India’s ties with Russia, has dissipated.
To the credit of Indian diplomacy, both administration figures as well as legislators on the Hill, are using Indian talking points in explaining India’s ties with Russia — by highlighting history, the refusal of the US to share technology or co-manufacture in India, and the price differentials between American and Russian equipment. The House vote is a political signal of confidence in the US-India relationship, irrespective of India’s current relationship with Russia. And, as Khanna told HT, it gives the White House enough political cover to give the sanctions waiver to India.
Behind that visible signal is a message. The Hill expects India to diversify away from Russia and deepen its defence ties with the US. The role of American defence companies — who have been complaining about the uncertainty caused by CAATSA — in pushing through this line of thinking in American policy circles should not be underestimated. India will, of course, decide on its defence acquisition strategy in accordance with its own national interest. But it should be aware of this expectation. It should also be aware that the Russia story isn’t over yet. The energy imports remain a talking point in American policy circles. And Russia hawks, including Menendez, remain concerned about Delhi-Moscow ties. But the political signal from the Hill, for now, is clear — we know you have a different relationship with Russia, we can live with it for now, but we hope you reduce your ties in the coming years.
Two, China remains the strategic glue between India and the US. In recent weeks, the administration has stepped up its engagement with Beijing and it may well lift select tariffs imposed against Chinese goods. But while these tactical readjustments will be a part of the US-China relationship, there is little doubt that American politicians see China as the single most important threat to US hegemony.
If Republicans and Democrats, in a polity where both parties rarely agree on anything, have come together to bat for ties with India, it is because of Xi Jinping. As long as China’s belligerence in the Indo-Pacific continues, and China-US relations remain fraught, India has a strategic cushion in DC. The fact that the amendment mentions the threat posed by China to India’s security, and highlights cooperation in emerging and critical technology between the two countries, is proof.
Behind that visible signal, too, is a message. America hopes India to be on its side in the global contest against China. And it hopes that India will play a proactive role if Beijing, at any point, steps up its aggression against Taiwan. Once again, India will and must do what is in its national interest. But being aware of American expectations is helpful to be able to strategise accordingly, prepare the system instead of being taken by surprise, and manage potential areas of friction.
And finally, the amendment shows that being a friend of India — and being seen as a friend of India — is politically profitable.
Khanna is a progressive who has taken a critical position against India’s domestic political orientation. This helped burnish his credentials with liberals as well as younger Indian-Americans who are disappointed with India’s current trajectory. At the same time, this made him come across as “anti-India”, and led to criticism and questions about his commitment to India-US ties. Removing this perception was the single most important driver for Khanna.
This does not mean that progressives won’t continue with their criticism of Indian democracy — in fact, there is a concerted lobbying effort underway to designate India as a “country of particular concern”. But the amendment does indicate that politicians who have ambitions for future office, who depend on Indian-Americans for votes and funds, and who want to maintain a working relationship with Government of India will be careful and highlight the strategic convergence even if they distance themselves politically from Hindutva.
India has scored a diplomatic win in the US Capitol. But sustaining the momentum will continue to require careful internal recalibration and proactive diplomacy.
The views expressed are personal
The National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) presidential pick Droupadi Murmu has been making headlines since the announcement of her candidature. Hailing from a predominantly tribal district of Odisha, Mayurbhanj, Murmu’s work as a State functionary in various capacities is remembered as one of bold decisions, grit, and humility. Known for her unwavering connection to her tribal heritage, Murmu is revered. A progressive leader, she is said to be a believer in tradition, walking hand in hand with modernity. This was seen in the multitude of initiatives she undertook during her tenure as a widely respected Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) and as the governor of Jharkhand.
There was once a time when certain surnames, Murmu included, meant being subjected to derision in schools and colleges. While the social structure has witnessed reforms, Dalits and tribals continue to face various forms of oppression. That she is set to replace a Dalit man is proof of the NDA’s commitment to diversity and inclusion.
Social justice and transformation — beyond just lip-service, even post-Mandal — must not remain as an idea in perpetuity. When BR Ambedkar spoke about three critical warnings on the eve of our Independence, the question of representation was at the top of his mind. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the NDA have walked that talk.
A tribal as the first citizen of India was a dream of the tribal community since Independence. Murmu will symbolise the coming of a new age in India, ushering in the intersection of two vulnerable identities in society — a tribal and a woman — to transform and protect the people she represents with unwavering confidence. This is the highest honour for the marginalised.
In the past, PA Sangma, another tribal, backed by the NDA, was in the running, but could not make it. Selecting Murmu may prove to be a stepping stone in bringing various issues involving tribals — especially, tribal women — into the mainstream public discourse. With her at the helm as President, there are great hopes of highlighting the trials and tribulations of the tribals, women, the invisibles, the downtrodden, and the often forgotten. Her approach, combining tradition with modernity, is the need of the hour.
Since Independence, speeches have been made on the question of tribal welfare, no one has concentrated on giving this issue its true relevance and importance. Tribals have been a key concern, but have not received focused attention. This is perhaps why their issues take ages to be resolved.
For example, the demand for Jharkhand, a separate state for Adivasis, took more than half a century, though the demand began before Independence. Similarly, the demand for official recognition of the Santhali language lingered for a long. It is only because the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government recognised these issues, that they got the relevance they deserved. However, several issues persist, which require discussion and resolution. This includes the implementation of the 5th Schedule provisions, the Sarna code, the Self-Rule System, the issue of false witchcraft lynchings, and Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the tribals of Assam, among others.
As per the Constitution, the powers of the governor along with the President are limited. They have to work in unison with the government through consultations with the cabinet. However, Murmu is not one to go along with the wishes of the government. She has time and again proved to be the real custodian of the Constitution for the tribals of Jharkhand. Her firm stand against the Raghubar Das-led government in Jharkhand on the Chotanagpur Tenancy Act (CNT) and Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act (SPT), proving her will to fight for tribal rights, made her a hero overnight. It was a bold step by a governor from the same party. She exercised her constitutional powers again to oppose the formation of the Tribal Advisory Council by the United Progressive Alliance government in Jharkhand, as her consent was not taken by chief minister Hemant Soren.
Murmu is undaunted in unsettling times. Many political pundits, including her opponent, Yashwant Sinha, have called her a rubber-stamp President. This is unfortunate, because even a brief perusal of the pages of history shows that she has repeatedly proved her independence. To witness her as the first female tribal head of State will herald a new era of progress, equality, and respect. If she wins the elections, which is very likely, it will inspire millions.
From the Rajya Sabha to Raisina Hill, and even India’s prestigious Padma awards, there is a reflection of confronting social realities. The idea of “behalfism” has done a great amount of disservice to the cause of the marginalised. Now for the first time in the history of India, Dalit and tribal communities are articulating, asserting and fighting for their rightful space in the new aspirational India. As young people from Dalit and tribal communities, we see hope and inspiration in this decision. We see a reflection of ourselves in Droupadi Murmu.
Jyoti Murmu is research scholar, JNU. Guru Prakash Paswan is assistant professor, Patna University, author, and national spokesperson, BJPThe views expressed are personal
Gaming is no child’s play. It is an industry that has come to exemplify the cutting edge of technology and represents around $200 billion global market, buoyed by digitalisation. It is the largest and most profitable use case for emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI); augmented, virtual and extended reality; and even blockchain. However, while India’s gaming industry is growing at a spectacular rate of around 40% and the country has the second highest number of gamers — second only to China — it accounts for only around 1% of global revenues.
There are no quick fixes for scaling any industry, even in the digital world. But, for industries such as gaming, India can learn from its experience in information technology services, where growth was driven by a combination of innovation, policy certainty and access to advanced markets. With the first two ingredients, it would only be a matter of time before Indian gaming companies reach global markets. Imminent free-trade agreements may be an effective additional lever to help local industry go global.
The minister of state for electronics and information technology has spoken several times this year of the Union government’s intent to govern the burgeoning digital market segment, in a bid to balance the interests of millions of gamers, thousands of gaming businesses, society at large, and the State. However, online gaming presents a unique set of governance challenges.
The foremost is to differentiate between games of skill and chance, particularly when player money is involved. Naturally, any government’s duty is to ensure that citizens don’t mistake one for the other. Moreover, Indian courts have regularly reiterated the centrality of this differentiation, to allow games such as poker, rummy, and fantasy sports to operate across states that disallowed them from time to time under gambling laws.
The problem is that even the most “objective” tests of skill and chance are context-dependent. For instance, the well-known critical repetition frequency (CRF) test provides a threshold value of repetitions at which a game becomes predominantly influenced by skill. That is, it is theoretically possible to measure the CRF for any game, and, therefore, to analyse the preponderance of skill over chance.
But consider this: When players spend time on a game, they achieve a higher absolute skill level. This means that if multiple players are spending time, there is an overall convergence in their skill level. Conversely, this can change dramatically with the introduction of new players, who may be at much lower skill levels. Therefore, the expected values from a CRF test are only stable in a static gaming environment, not a constantly evolving one as is par for the course online.
Complex digital market dynamics necessitate a new nimbleness in governance. It is precisely for this reason that the Union government introduced a three-tier governance structure for digital media in 2021, based on self-regulation at the first two tiers and government oversight at the third. While no governance model is flawless, their evolution is natural. And, this framework has provided India’s creative economy with a solid-yet-responsive structure around which to build global prowess. A similar co-regulatory structure is well suited for online gaming.
In fact, the foundation of India’s digital ecosystem is built on the principles of self-regulation. The evidence lies in the growth of the software industry and its self-regulatory charters and bodies, built on principles such as trust, inclusion and innovation. Similarly, self-regulatory bodies for online gaming could simulate realistic environments for gameplay testing based on transparent thresholds to quantify skill and chance. And rigorous application of such AI-driven processes can be overseen by the State, helping align incentives and cement a new form of a public-private partnership for agile governance in the 21st century.
Arvind Gupta is founder, Digital India Foundation, and Vivan Sharan is secretary, Esya Centre The views expressed are personal