India’s Green Hydrogen Policy released on February 17, 2022 has addressed several critical challenges such as open access, waiver of inter-state transmission charges, banking, time-bound clearances, etc., and is expected to further boost India’s energy transition.
India’s per capita energy consumption is about one-third of the global average and one-twelfth of the U.S. Increasing growth and economic prosperity would significantly increase India’s energy appetite furthering import dependence. This, coupled with volatility in prices, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the roller-coaster ride of energy prices from historic lows in 2020 to record highs in 2021, could pose a serious threat to our energy security, accentuating an unequivocal need to strive for energy independence.
The new age fuel, hydrogen, is touted as India’s gateway to energy independence. Hydrogen has a multifaceted role to play in the futuristic energy landscape, be it energy storage, long-haul transport, or decarbonisation of the industrial sector.
In the long run, two envisioned prominent fuels are hydrogen and electricity. Though both are energy vectors, hydrogen can be stored on a large scale and for a longer duration explicitly affirming its huge potential to become a great balancer to the ever-increasing supply of variable renewable energy. It will complement and accelerate renewables into India’s clean energy transition, thereby supporting India’s ambitious plan to achieve 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030.
Hydrogen: a game-changer
Hydrogen has a major role to play in the decarbonisation of India’s transport sector. The advantages of fuel cell vehicles over battery electric vehicles are faster fuelling and long-driving range thereby making them ideal for long-haul transportation which is a major constraint with Li-Ion batteries. In the industrial segment, hydrogen can de-carbonise ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors such as iron and steel, aluminium, copper etc. It is a huge prospect to produce fuels such as methanol, synthetic kerosene and green ammonia.
India’s hydrogen consumption was around 7 Mt in 2020 and according to The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), it is anticipated to leapfrog to about 28 Mt in 2050. Assuming 25% export capacity, we can expect a requirement of 35 Mt by 2050. On the basis of this assumption, we can calculate that India would require a tentative capacity in the range of 192 GW to 224 GW of electrolysers by 2050, assuming all of it is green hydrogen.
The global capacity of electrolysers has just crossed 300 MW in 2021. This signifies that India itself would require an electrolyser capacity of 640 to 750 times the current global capacity, by 2050.
This would entail an exponential increase in electricity demand of around 1,500 to 1,800 TWh, implying that just for hydrogen production; India would require 110-130% of its current total electricity generation (2020-21) by 2050. Therefore, a road map for rapid growth in demand for electricity, especially from renewables should be prepared.
Apart from the ever-increasing electricity demand, the high cost of hydrogen manufacturing and water scarcity could also pose a challenge. Production of 1 kg of hydrogen by electrolysis requires around nine litres of water. Therefore, hydrogen project planning should be holistic and targeted in areas that are not water-scarce.
Creating a hydrogen economy is a chicken and egg problem as consumers seek lower costs which could be possible with scalability and large investments, but for those, producers seek assured demand. Hydrogen fulfils the three Es of India’s energy road map — energy security, energy sustainability and energy access — and India should strive to seize one more E, viz. economic opportunity so that industry can be encouraged to its full potential.
Five-step strategy
On the demand side, a five-step strategy should be devised. Firstly, to create an initial demand, a mandate should be given to mature industries such as refining and fertilisers, with adequate incentives. Secondly, industries manufacturing low emission hydrogen-based products inter alia green steel and green cement need to be incentivised by government policies. Thirdly, blending hydrogen with natural gas can act as a big booster shot which can be facilitated by framing blending mandates, regulations and promoting H-CNG stations. Further, to promote FCEVs, hydrogen fuel stations may be planned on dedicated corridors where long-distance trucking is widespread. Lastly, the concept of carbon tariffs needs to be introduced on the lines of European countries.
On the supply side too, a five-step strategy should be devised. Firstly, investment in R&D should be accelerated to bring its cost at par with fossils. Secondly, Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT) scheme with a target to produce 15 MMT of compressed biogas could be leveraged by exploring biogas conversion into hydrogen. Thirdly, to commercialise and scale-up nascent technologies, a Viability Gap Funding (VGF) scheme may be introduced for hydrogen-based projects. Further, to secure affordable financing, electrolyser manufacturing and hydrogen projects need to be brought under Priority Sector Lending (PSL). Lastly, since two dominant cost factors for green hydrogen are renewable energy tariffs & electrolyser costs, and India has the advantage of one of the lowest renewable tariffs; the thrust should be on reducing the cost of electrolysers by implementing the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. This could help India become a global hub for electrolyser manufacturing and green hydrogen.
On the transportation front, ammonia, having high energy density could be promoted as a mode of transportation. A hydrogen transportation system could also be built on the foundation created for natural gas by using its existing infrastructure. Additionally, hydrogen transportation projects may be integrated with PM Gati Shakti Master Plan.
Hydrogen could completely transform India’s energy ecosystem by shifting its trajectory from an energy importer to a dominant exporter over the next few decades. India could export to projected future import centres like Japan, South Korea, etc.
With hydrogen, India could lead the world in achieving Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Hydrogen could lay the foundation of a new India which would be energy-independent; a global climate leader and international energy power.
In COP 26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had given a clarion call ofpanchamrit (five goals), with an ambitious target to achieve Net Zero by 2070. Hydrogen will certainly play a decisive role in India’s Net Zero ambition and in making India ‘Aatmanirbhar in energy’.
Ramit Kalia is Manager, Engineers India Limited. Usha Suresh is Former Senior Economic Adviser, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas
The COVID-19 pandemic has unarguably emerged as the biggest disruption in the field of school education in the last 100 years. It would take many more months before the medium- and long-term impact of school closure is fully comprehended. A joint report by UNESCO, UNICEF and the World Bank, ‘The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery’, released in early December 2021 had estimated that in the first 21 months of the pandemic, schools in countries around the world were either partially or fully closed for an average of 224 days. During the same period, schools in Indian States were closed for physical classes, for almost twice the duration, i.e., between 450 days to 480 days. Since the publication of this report, the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of the SARS-CoV-2-led surge globally, and the resultant third wave of COVID-19 in India further delayed the re-opening of schools. By March or early April 2022, when re-opened, schools in India had cumulatively closed for physical classes for around 570 days to 600 days — one of the longest school closures in the world.
COVID-19 will linger
However, just when schools, parents and children have begun getting accustomed to regular offline classes, there are reports of an uptick in COVID-19 cases in Indian States including a few cases of children testing COVID-19 positive. This has again whipped up the demand from some sections of parents to move back to hybrid classes. There have been suggestions for the partial closure of schools or even temporary but full closure of schools, if there are a few cases of COVID-19 in a school. In fact, a few private schools have even moved to the hybrid mode.
This demand for shifting to hybrid mode or that of partial closure with every single case in schoolchildren is not scientifically supported and could prove a big threat to school education in India. The reason is simple. SARS-CoV-2 will stay with humanity in the months and years to follow. COVID-19 cases are likely to be reported from all settings — including among schoolchildren — with an unpredictable rise and fall. Therefore, it is impractical, unnecessary, unscientific and unethical to even consider an ‘open and shut’ mode for schools.
Adverse outcomes are low
Children are a part of family and society; therefore, when COVID-19 cases are being reported in a community, children are also likely to test positive. However, two years into the pandemic, what is proven is that while children do get SARS-CoV-2 infection at the same rate as adults, the probability of adverse outcome of moderate to severe disease is very low.
The news of children being detected COVID-19 positive is drawing more media attention after school re-opening. However, there is no evidence that children have contracted the infection in schools. In most cases, they are more likely to have got the infection from family members. In fact, even before schools were re-opened, successive seroprevalence-surveys across Indian States have reported that nearly 70% to 90% of all children had already got infection (thus protected).
Twenty-five months into the pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 infection is not an immediate concern; what matters is the outcome of that infection. Most healthy children do not develop severe outcomes, a situation which has not altered even with the emergence of newer variants of concern. In the foreseeable period — possibly for many months — COVID-19 cases would not be zero in any age group — this includes schoolchildren.
Therefore, it is time that we, as a society, stop worrying about children contracting COVID-19 infection. The hybrid mode of learning or partial closure of schools are not the options any more. Rather, the focus has to be on how to keep schools fully open.
What the challenge is
The recurring discourse on whether to move to hybrid classes or when to close schools is proving a big distraction from more pressing challenges in school education, namely, ‘the learning loss’. It is time we plan and act to ensure learning recovery.
First, the re-opening of schools does not mean that all children have begun returning to school. It is time the Education Departments in every State lead the process so as to ensure that every school in every district ensures that no child has dropped out from the education system, and that every eligible child is enrolled. Special attention is needed for the enrolment of all children and girls, especially poor, backward, rural, urban slum-dwellers. Children who are eligible for admission in nursery or classes one and two will need special attention. This would be a key step in tackling pandemic-related enrolment inequities.
Second, the learning loss during the last two years is humongous and ‘learning recovery’ should be the priority of every State government. There has to be focus on the need to assess the learning level of children and then strategise for learning recovery. It is also time to consider consolidating the curriculum and increasing teaching time. To ensure the success of such efforts, school teachers will need support and the training to accommodate the learning levels and needs of children. The mentor teacher initiatives in government schools in Delhi is proof of the potential of what can be achieved if teachers are supported well. Across India, in both government and private schools, we have very motivated teachers who can contribute to the process. It is time to support teachers. Innovative approaches and the participation of civil society organisations working in the field of education need to be explored.
Increase allocations
Third, looking at the pandemic in the ‘rear view mirror’, it is time that every Indian State re-assesses the challenges in school education. Subject experts must examine the recommendations made in the National Education Policy 2020 in context of pandemic-related challenges, and fresh operational strategies must be developed and implemented in an accelerated manner. All of this would require additional government investment. In India, government spending on education accounts for about 3% of GDP, which is almost half the average for the education spending of low- and middle-income countries. The time has come for both the Union and State governments in India to increase financial allocation for school education.
Fourth, there are studies and reports that mental health issues and needs in school-age children have doubled in the pandemic period. This calls for making provision for mental health services and counselling sessions for the school-age children. The Education and Health Departments in Indian States need to work together to ensure regular services such as school health, mental health as well as a health check-up for schoolchildren. In early March 2022, 20 school health clinics were opened in Delhi and every State needs to start similar initiatives to strengthen school health services. These initiatives should lay the foundation for more comprehensive approaches such as ‘health promoting schools’.
Fifth, mid-day meal services have resumed after a gap of two years. There are 12 crore children in India whose nutritional status is dependent on these school meals. Any disruption in the supply of school meals also means a lack of sufficient nutrition for these children, and thus their weakened immunity and higher susceptibility to various infections. The supplementary nutrition programme in schools will essentially ensure that children remain protected from the severe outcome of COVID-19. In addition, learning from the pandemic, hand washing with soap and water and toilet facilities should be improved in every school, especially in rural and government schools. This will also prepare schools in preventing the possible spread of COVID-19 and also reduce other water-borne illnesses in school-age children. The role of both hygiene and nutrition in better learning has been proven for a long time.
Social, moral responsibility
It is time to recognise that the risk of COVID-19 in children is very low, and far lower than other prevalent health concerns such as dengue, malaria and typhoid, and that the benefit of in-person education is far greater than any risk. Real learning does not happen in the four walls of homes or through online classes but it happens when teachers and other children are in school. Studies have shown that every month of school closure results in the loss of learning ability lags by two months. By that calculation, the learning of children in India has gone back by almost three years. So now that schools are reopening, we cannot start as if nothing has happened. We cannot be distracted, unnecessarily and repeatedly, by unscientific demands to move to hybrid mode or consider any form of temporary closure again .
Realising the challenges posed by the pandemic, the Government needs to take every necessary step to bring school education back on track and develop a road map for learning recovery. Governments, parents, communities and schools need to work together. It is our moral and social responsibility towards the future of this nation.
Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya is a primary-care physician, public policy and health systems specialist, and an epidemiologist based in New Delhi
The spate of riots that erupted around the recently held Ram Navami festival and Hanuman Jayanti in States such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan and in Delhi’s Jahangirpuri seem to be have begun a new chapter in Hindu-Muslim violence. The last time such a cycle of Hindu-Muslim violence erupted simultaneously in so many States was after the Babri Masjid demolition on December 6, 1992. While the demolition of the Babri Masjid triggered riots in various parts of India that year, no such singular tragic event could be attributed to the current cycle of violence, indicating a radical shift in not just inter-faith relations at the societal level but also in State-community relations.
In recent events, the demolition drive after the violence saw, for example, the use of a bulldozer in Jahangirpuri; the entrance of its local Jama Masjid was damaged. Thus, from the Babri Masjid’s destruction to the demolition of a part of Jahangirpuri’s Jama Masjid this year, it has been a full circle in the right’s approach to the Hindu- Muslim issue. Between 1992 to 2022, the Hindu right’s politics seems have etched the word ‘demolition’ in the journey of Muslim identity in modern India. At the time of the Babri Masjid’s demolition in 1992, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-governed four States: Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh; and these governments were dismissed by the P.V. Narasimha Rao government of the Congress after the demolition.
Some commentators who questioned these dismissals tried to justify the secular credentials of these BJP governments by citing the absence of riots in these States. But these days, such claims about BJP-ruled States cannot be made. Instead, according to reports, riots may be engineered to perpetuate polarisation even in non-BJP ruled States, with Muslim victims presented as perpetrators.
Almost ‘standard practice’
In the present instance, the Supreme Court of India has intervened, fortunately, and has made sharp observations about the use of a bulldozer in Jahangirpuri. But the point is that the use of the bulldozer as a ‘solution’ to rioting has emerged as standard practice in several BJP-governed States. While Uttar Pradesh is the first State in India to use the bulldozer as an extra-judicial weapon, other States such as Madhya Pradesh (in the instance of violence in Khargone) and Gujarat (in the violence in Sabarkantha) too have justified it as the final solution. Riots are not specific to India, and happen even in developed countries, for example, race riots in America. But in no other country does the state deploy bulldozers as a solution.
A questioning of belonging
In Jahangirpuri, for example, BJP leaders have brought in the ‘presence’ of Rohingya and Bangladeshi refugees as a factor, as if their clusters are integral to all Muslim neighbourhoods. Like all ideological movements, the right seems to use invented facts in a reckless manner to promote its ideological propaganda. By virtue of this, the right has been able to present Indian Muslims — one of the most deprived communities in modern India — as the most pampered one in public perception using the allegation of appeasement over the years. By bringing ‘Rohingya and Bangladeshi refugees’ into the conversation, the right seeks to question the legitimacy of Muslim belonging. With the fact of there being no historical right to homeland, the ‘right to home’ evaporates. Hence the use of the bulldozer becomes the most apt intervention.
Neither riot nor religious procession is new in India. What is new, however — and as the media reports — is the use of incendiary slogans that are meant to hurt the Muslim community, and resorting to aggressive acts such as the display of swords in order to try and provoke retaliation, thereby leading to riots. While further inquiry would lead to the discovery of more facts that have led to or aggravated the violence, the truth is that there is a deliberate attempt to change the nature of what are purely religious processions, thus marking the deeper penetration of a Hindutva ideology into otherwise routine religious life.
Change in state’s approach
On Hindu-Muslim violence in India, there is robust scholarship by scholars of various disciplines. Here, there are two observations on which there is consensus: first, Muslims suffer disproportionately in terms of loss in lives and livelihood in riots. Second, the main cause for communal violence is most often trivial. What has changed now is that communal violence can occur even without there being a trivial reason. What is even more intriguing now is the difference in the state’s approach to grappling with riots and post-riot situations as opposed to a pre-majoritarian moment in Indian politics. In the past (particularly under the so-called secular regimes), the general approach applied to handling post-riot situations included the setting up of a judicial investigation; compensation for victims; a visit by leaders such as Chief Ministers or even the Prime Minister to the violence-hit neighbourhoods. For example, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Muzaffarnagar after the violence in 2013.
On the other hand, after the Jahangirpuri incident, the Delhi Chief Minister, like leaders in the BJP, has chosen not to visit. It has been argued that by doing so, the Chief Minister has ‘smartly avoided’ falling into the BJP-laid trap in this atmosphere of toxic communal politics. But the fact is by doing so, the Delhi Chief Minister has only internalised the fear of the Hindutva narrative and has sub-consciously trapped himself on the BJP’s terms. Any ideological politics requires clarity over convictions and fearlessness in its execution. Therefore, it is futile to claim to represent an alternative to the right today without having clarity over citizen’s rights and a confidence to perform the solemn duties of a public servant.
Shaikh Mujibur Rehman teaches at the Jamia Millia Central University,
New Delhi. He is the author of the forthcoming book, ‘Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims’
With over six million people dying due to COVID-19 in the last two years, safety and health have become central to every local, national, and international discussion. As accidents, injuries, and diseases are prevalent in many industries, all of which directly and indirectly affect workers’ and their families’ well-being, it makes ensuring a preventative safety and health culture a critical component of any workplace. Globally, an estimated 2.9 million deaths and 402 million non-fatal injuries are attributed to occupational accidents and diseases. For the world of work to build forward from the pandemic in a more human-centred and resilient way, occupational safety and health (OSH) mechanisms need to be strengthened to establish workplaces that are not hazardous for workers.
Since 2003, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has commemorated April 28 as World Day for Safety and Health at Work to stress the prevention of accidents and diseases at work by capitalising on our strength of tripartism and social dialogue. Our new publication, “Enhancing social dialogue towards a culture of safety and health,” and this year’s theme, “Act together to build a positive safety and health culture”, explores the role of social dialogue in creating a positive safety and health culture at workplaces, which will be made possible by cooperation and discussions between employers and workers.
Implementation of OSH code
Occupational accidents and diseases cost 5.4% of the global GDP annually. While less tangibly, they materialise as presenteeism (working with less effectiveness), productivity losses associated with permanent impairment, and staff-turnover costs (i.e., loss of skilled staff). The Government of India declared the National Policy on Safety, Health and Environment at Workplace in February 2009 and compiled the available OSH information as National OSH Profile in 2018. The next important step is launching a strategic National OSH Programme. Effective implementation of the code of OSH and working conditions of 2020 is expected to extend OSH protection to more sectors, especially to informal workers who make up nearly 90% of India’s workforce, and provide fair and effective labour inspections, as labour inspection visits dropped from 1,21,757 in 2011 to 93,846 in 2016. The code should also promote active workplace OSH committees.
At the national level, the government needs to include all relevant ministries to ensure that workers’ safety and health are prioritised in the national agenda. This requires allocating adequate resources to increase general awareness around OSH, knowledge of hazards and risks, and an understanding of their control and prevention measures. At the state level, workers’ and employers’ organisations, by way of bilateral discussions, must incorporate safety and health training at every level of their supply chains to ensure protection from workplace injuries and diseases. Social dialogue is essential for improving compliance and plays a vital role in building ownership and instilling commitment, which paves the way for the rapid and effective implementation of OSH policies.
OSH coverage across India
India has some good practices for extending OSH coverage. The Government of Uttar Pradesh, in cooperation with employers and workers, carried out participatory OSH training workshops for metal and garment home-based workers. Most of these workers are in the informal economy and remain unreachable by other occupational health and safety initiatives. The Government of Kerala applied the ILO’s participatory OSH training methodologies and reached out to small construction sites for OSH improvements. The Government of Rajasthan generated OSH awareness among workers and employers in stone processing units for preventing occupational lung diseases.
A reliable occupational accident and disease reporting system is vital for remedying victims and making effective prevention policies for safer and healthier workplaces. While India has such a mechanism, it is underutilised, with many injuries, accidents, and diseases going unregistered. The lack of awareness of health hazards at workplaces leads to misdiagnosis by doctors. Corrective action entails training doctors on the various occupational diseases and workplace hazards and risks.
Occupational injuries and illnesses cause immeasurable suffering and loss to victims and their families. Moreover, they also entail economic losses for enterprises and economies. Therefore, strong social dialogue mechanisms for appropriately addressing occupational safety and health, by adequately investing in its prevention, will contribute to building a safe and healthy workforce and support productive enterprises, which form the bedrock of a sustainable economy.
Dagmar Walter is Director, ILO Decent Work Technical Support Team for South Asia and Country Office for India, part of UN Team India
Telangana’s political space is now abuzz with activity, thanks to the diverse strategies being tried out by the three major political parties — the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The spurt in political activity, planned or part of a long-drawn political process, has set the election season into motion though Assembly polls are 18 months away.
Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao is keeping the early election lamp burning through every conceivable action, announcing a slew of schemes and issuing long-pending job notifications to pacify several sections that he feels are slipping out of his control.
Opposition parties have stepped on the gas too creating a confrontative atmosphere to keep up the momentum. Undoubtedly, both the Congress and the BJP have injected the idea of early polls into people’s minds irrespective of the reality.
The Congress, which was warming up, has now got into battle mode as it plans to conduct its biggest ever meeting — farmers’ struggle meet — in Warangal on May 6 involving Rahul Gandhi. The visit is expected to spur political activity further and set the tone for a full-fledged battle.
The BJP is not far behind. It is in high spirits with its recent win in the Huzurabad bypoll where Eatala Rajender, once the right-hand man of Mr. Rao, defeated the TRS.
The State BJP chief Bandi Sanjay’s Praja Sangrama Yatra, a walkathon covering the entire State, showcases the party’s urgency to join the early elections battle or get ready for the plunge when the situation demands. The BJP too, like the Congress, is banking largely on the ‘anti-incumbency’ against the two terms of TRS rule.
But the sudden entry of political strategist Prashant Kishor into Telangana just changed the contours of politics and political equations. Even as he engages Congress at the national level to cobble up an anti-BJP front, the organisation Mr. Kishor was earlier associated with, the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) has simultaneously agreed to work with the TRS in Telangana where the Congress is its bitter rival.
Mr. Kishor himself had marathon meetings with Mr. Rao and other TRS leaders. The TRS working president and Mr. Rao’s son, K.T. Rama Rao, has officially confirmed that the party has engaged the services of I-PAC.
This association has set off the speculative factories to manufacture numerous theories including a pact between the Congress and the TRS, unimaginable so far and indigestible for the Congress cadre. The Congress, brutally battered by defections and electoral losses, is slowly showing signs of revival in recent times.
But it is now engulfed in chaos and confusion down the line, though the AICC in-charge of Telangana Congress, Manickam Tagore categorically rejected the possibility of an electoral tie-up with the TRS.
As the Congress leadership wades through these uncertain tidal waves hitting them hard in the form of Prashant Kishor, the BJP is happy.
It is already spinning theories around it while the Congress is trying hard to dismiss them. Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC)chief A. Revanth Reddy is repeatedly rejecting this theory to keep the cadre’s spirit up, citing that Prashant Kishor, in his report to the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, has not mentioned any tie-up with TRS in Telangana, though he suggested similar association in other States.
An interesting political scenario is unfolding in Telangana with the entry of one man, and that too much before he has even started his work.
ravikanth.ramasayam@thehindu.co.in
The value of proactive judicial intervention cannot be understated. After the Supreme Court called for “corrective measures” against the peddling of communal hate from supposedly religious platforms, the authorities in Uttarakhand have prevented the holding of a ‘dharam sansad’ in Roorkee by imposing prohibitory orders against such gatherings. At a time when communally motivated gatherings are becoming conspicuous in their frequency and vociferous in their fulminations against minorities, one would have expected the police to be more sensitive to the situation and prevent hate speeches. Counsel for Himachal Pradesh has said preventive steps were taken when one such gathering took place a few days ago, and that the participants were warned against any incitement, but those who have approached the Court against the trend of hate speeches at such meets, accuse the local authorities of inaction. It was one such religious conclave in Haridwar in December that witnessed extraordinarily inflammatory speeches being made against Muslims, some of them having a shockingly genocidal tenor. After dithering, the Uttarakhand police had then arrested Yati Narsinghanand, a controversial priest and Hindutva leader, who was among those who had allegedly called for armed violence against minorities. Even after obtaining bail, under a condition that he would not make any provocative speeches, he had participated in a similar event in Delhi. Instances of controversial religious figures making unacceptable comments at different places and occasions have emerged as a disturbing pattern, one that the Court may have to arrest by stern action.
One way of looking at this phenomenon is to dismiss it as not being representative of the silent majority and as the activity of a few fringe elements. However, it cannot be gainsaid that the provocateurs are seeking to foster a collective fear among the majority that their interests are not being protected by an allegedly minority-friendly Constitution, and feeding off the same fear to spread their message of hate. The possible damage to the social fabric is incalculable, as the language of hatred may seep into the public consciousness as an acceptable thought process. The result may be an atmosphere in which communal harmony and public tranquillity will be at perennial risk. It is in this backdrop that modern democracies make a clear distinction between freedom of expression and speech that tends to incite hatred against a public group or section of society. The Supreme Court has recognised the potential for a wider societal impact beyond the distress caused to individual members of the targeted group. In cases relating to lynching and ‘khap panchayats’, the Court laid down guidelines on preventive, remedial and punitive measures. While these are to be followed without exceptions, there is also a need for considering new criminal and penal provisions to combat hate speech.
The beleaguered Congress has been trying to find ways to get out of the rut that it has got itself into after a series of electoral debacles in the last decade. Its inability to project a cohesive, decisive and vibrant leadership ever since it lost power at the Centre has certainly played a role in this, but attempts at revitalisation have focused more on quickly regaining electoral viability than on addressing serious structural issues. Prashant Kishor, the much sought-after election strategist who has successfully advised several parties on how to leverage new media tools, messaging and promotion of leaders, might not have joined the Congress, but his diagnosis of what ails the party is not without merit. Beginning after Independence as the flag bearer of secularism, social democracy, scientific temper, planned development and strategic autonomy on global matters, the party managed to retain its primacy for decades because of the legitimacy of its leadership that played a central role in the freedom movement and who articulated these values clearly during their struggles. Dissension within and discontent against the party on the issue of authoritarianism (the Emergency), the post-Mandal rise of OBC-based parties, and the gradual federalisation of India’s polity led to its decline. Soon it was bested by the rise of the religious right, which managed the politics of caste arithmetic far better in the Hindi heartland and western India and thrived because of the strong presence of a cadre-based force, besides a decisive leadership, articulating its ideology and agenda.
The lack of a structured cadre base that could trumpet the Congress’s legacy and achievements is a severe weakness. But the inability to state ideological positions and values clearly is another disadvantage — by seeking to remain a big tent of ideas, the Congress has in the past been numbed into vapid centrism or taken recourse to opportunist use of non-secular values seeing its effect in the rise of the BJP. There is no magic bullet for these weaknesses, but it would not hurt to kindle internal democracy to reconstitute the party’s leadership at various levels. Thoroughgoing elections as a procedure should rev up the party’s organisation, clarify what it truly stands for — based on its founding principles and how its sympathisers and members articulate them during the electoral process — and also bring about a decisive leadership that will legitimately claim the position based on the results of the elections rather than familial legacy. This exercise should enable it to later engage with like-minded political forces (many parties that were formed after splintering from the parent Congress) and face the electorate with better cohesion.
Washington, April 27: President Nixon last night said that the Vietnamisation programme has proved itself sufficiently for him to continue with the programme of withdrawing American forces from South Vietnam. In his televised address to the nation on Vietnam, Mr. Nixon announced three decisions. One, withdraw over the next two months 20,000 more Americans from Vietnam, reducing the total force there to 49,000 men by July 1. Two, resume the Paris talks with the firm expectation that productive talks leading to rapid progress would follow and three, order continuance of U.S air and naval attacks on military installations in North Vietnam until it stops its offensive in South Vietnam. Mr. Nixon said his decisions were based on the prediction of General Abrams, U.S. Commander in Vietnam, that there would be several more weeks of very hard fighting in which some battles would be lost and others would be won by the South Vietnamese. “But if we continue to provide air and sea support, the enemy will fail in its desperate gamble to impose a communist regime on South Vietnam and the South Vietnamese will then have demonstrated their ability to defend themselves on the ground against future enemy attacks,” General Abrams was quoted as saying.
Time and again, it has been repeatedly declared in the press and the platform that the Co-operative movement finds little headway into the villages. If at all any sign is visible, it is under credit societies and especially in towns when there is a large middle class verging on the side of want and necessity. Even in this, the benefit is not very much appreciated, as an applicant will have to wait his turn and in many cases, the turn comes always late. While such is the case with town societies, one can fairly conclude that the results of credit societies in rural areas, are always negative in result. As one moving about, I can assert with some plainness that even to-day in villages, the local sowcars and the small monied people rule, as people do not mind extra interest out of their necessity to meet payment in time. Mr. Vedachallaiyer, in his presidential address in the recent Madura, Ramnad Co-operative Conference deplored the apathy of the masses and the poor response of co-operative spirit in its proper intensity in rural areas.
The outright purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk for $44 billion, after a series of controversies and conflicting reports — including of a “poison pill” defence by the company’s board — is certain to shake up the tech industry, the digital public sphere and global markets. Given his position as a self-proclaimed “free speech absolutist”, and the sheer size of the deal, the buyout also raises fundamental questions.
First, should one person, no matter how accomplished, wealthy or well-meaning, have disproportionate control over the global public conversation? Oversight is not just by governments and legislation, but the checks imposed by the fiduciary responsibility placed on publicly-traded companies. In the aftermath of the purchase, for example, Tesla’s market capitalisation was wiped out by about $126 billion. This sharp fall is at least in part due to concerns that Musk may sell stock in his flagship company to finance the buyout, as well as the fear that his attention will be occupied by Twitter — the platform’s influence far outweighs its profitability. Second, Musk has been accused in the past of using Twitter and social media to further his companies’ financial interests. Without oversight, his ability to manipulate the debate and markets for personal and financial ends only increases. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Musk’s foreseeable plans for Twitter — reducing content moderation, in particular — frame the contours of a future conflict with national governments that are becoming more rigorous in their efforts to regulate social media.
Already, a spokesperson of the UK government has said that Twitter will have to comply with the Online Safety Bill once it becomes law. The European Union’s commissioner for the internal market, Thierry Breton, tweeted that Musk and Twitter must comply with the Digital Services Act. In India, the government has often been at loggerheads with companies over taking down posts and tweets under Section 69(A) of the IT Act. Musk’s response to the demand for oversight was to tweet: “The extreme antibody reaction from those who fear free speech says it all.” It is no one’s case that governments have been the best protectors of free speech, or that they have always been reasonable in their imposition of “reasonable restrictions”. Yet, in democracies, there is a system of checks and balances, and legitimacy of law. Musk’s Twitter — a for-profit company, with no one to answer to but him – has none of those boundaries or restraints. That could amount to not absolutely free speech, but an unencumbered entitlement. The onus is on the Musk-owned Twitter to alleviate these apprehensions.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘Musk’s Twitter’.
India has an employment problem which has been exacerbated by the pandemic. One indication of the building crisis is the continuing increase, over the years, in work demanded by households under the MGNREGA. In 2014-15, 4.13 crore households got work under the scheme. By 2019-20, just prior to the pandemic, this had risen to 5.48 crore. In 2020-21, at the peak of the economic distress, the number of households that worked under the scheme had risen to 7.55 crore. While that figure declined to 7.26 crore in the subsequent year, it remains considerably higher than the pre-pandemic level, indicating perhaps the continuing absence of alternatives. This growing divergence between the demand and supply of jobs manifests in a myriad of ways — from louder demands for reservation in the public sector by various caste groups, and for including the private sector in its ambit, to state governments exploring ways to ensure job quotas for locals. All this is indicative of a wide and deepening anxiety over employment prospects.
The deterioration in the employment scenario can be tracked at many levels. One, over the years, there has been a sharp fall in the labour force participation rate in India. Data from CMIE suggests that the labour force participation rate has fallen to around 40 per cent. For comparable countries, it is significantly higher. This decline suggests that despite India’s young population, many have simply opted out of the labour force, perhaps feeling let down by the absence of remunerative, productive jobs. The situation is even more dire for women who had a considerably lower participation rate to begin with. India’s female labour force participation is not only lower than the global average, but also lower than countries like Bangladesh. Two, even as the unemployment rate has declined from the highs observed during the initial phase of the pandemic, it remains elevated, suggesting that among those looking for jobs, those unable to find jobs remains high. Three, the unemployment rate is higher among the younger and more educated. As per the periodic labour force surveys, the unemployment rate is higher among those in the 15-29 age group (22.5 per cent in September 2019), and those educated up to at least the secondary level (11 per cent). Four, while there are signs of increasing formalisation as indicated by the EPFO data, a substantial share of the labour force continues to remain employed in the informal sector, lacking a safety net.
While successive governments have taken steps to address the issue, the jobs crisis is in large part the result of the absence of a labour intensive manufacturing sector which can not only absorb the millions entering the labour force each year, but also those moving out of agriculture. For a country of the young, in the midst of a demographic transition, the employment problem is perhaps the most formidable challenge before the government.
The dire warnings of climate change experts are coming true. Flooding caused by torrential rainfall in the past two weeks has claimed close to 500 lives and left thousands homeless in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province. Tens of thousands of people in Durban are, reportedly, without water and there are concerns of an infectious disease outbreak. Authorities fear the toll could climb much higher.
Intense rainfall in spring and early summer is part of South Africa’s weather pattern. In April-May, a low-pressure system, stemming from the westerly trough systems of cold air, develops south of the country and often results in inclement weather. In 2019, flash floods claimed 85 lives in Durban. But the intensity of the downpour this year was unprecedented. Some parts of KwaZulu-Natal experienced a year’s rainfall in less than 36 hours. The weather vagary is straight out of classical climate change literature: Warmer seas push large amounts of moisture into the atmosphere leading to intense spells of rainfall. But that’s one part of the story. The deluge’s catastrophic turn has much to do with a failing that’s common to several parts of the world, including India: Durban’s drainage system that has, at best, seen cosmetic improvements in more than a century, was ill-equipped to handle the relentless downpour.
As in climate disasters in most parts of the world, the poor in South Africa have borne the brunt. Durban is a city of migrants, and large numbers live in shacks, locally called “informal settlements”. These houses — an Apartheid-era legacy of the poor living in low-lying areas — were the first to be swept away by the flash floods. Experts have sounded the red alert for more extreme weather events in South Africa in the coming years. As in other parts of the world, the way forward lies in improving the accuracy of warning systems, and building the resilience of people, especially the poor. This should be the focus of adaptation strategies.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘Swept away’.
District authorities in Amritsar have issued shoot at sight orders following fresh violence and cases of arson. Curfew was imposed at a number of places on April 27. At least one person was killed and 25 injured when police opened fire to quell rioting in the Golden Temple area. Police also fired at an unruly mob when it entered the police station at Budhlada near Bhatinda. But there was no casualty. Police was attacked with stones at several places. Om Prakash, deputy superintendent of police, and two constables were seriously injured. They have been admitted to hospital.
The Centre is sending three battalions of the CRPF to help the Punjab government deal with the violence. BSF battalions are also stationed in Amritsar and the state government has been told that it can requisition more. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has sent a high-level team, comprising Home Minister Giani Zail Singh, Industry Minister N D Tiwari and Home Secretary T N Chaturvedi to review the situation in the state.
The Falkland crisis deepened as Britain and Argentina hardened their attitude towards a negotiated settlement. According to Argentine news agency DYN, Argentina has told US officials that a new peace plan should be delivered to Foreign Minister Nicanor Costa Mendez, who is in Washington.
Notwithstanding the presence of star actor Rekha, it was Naushad Ali, the veteran music composer of over 50 films who stole the limelight at Delhi’s Vigyan Bhawan during the presentation of the National Film Awards. He was given the Dadasaheb Phalke award.
The pandemic has thrown a harsh light on the vulnerabilities and challenges faced by the world in education. There is an immense learning gap due to existing inequalities.
In India, we have to accept that unless we mobilise learning resources and institutions at the government level, the divides will continue to expand and learners will continue to fall between the cracks. We urgently need the government, both at the Centre and state levels, to invest in learning systems. This will help address poverty and bring in gender equality.
How are we going to restart learning when we have pressed the pause button on many of our social systems?
There are too many headlines telling us that education is catastrophically broken. How do we fix it? The rhetoric of brokenness and crisis doesn’t help. It favours quick fixes over dialogue and reflection. Systems have to be put into place to find a variety of methods to equip all learners — privileged, poor, middle-class and alternatively-abled. The child must always be the priority and not an afterthought.
The challenge is not about exams because exams are not a threat. It has been proven that assessments in the last three years, whether online or offline, have been child-centric, often to the point of being unrealistic. The challenge is about returning to school.
Conversations continue to hover around the lack of vaccinations for children and unmanageable protocols, along with the general atmosphere of fear that prevails across the country.
In wealthier nations, schools have always been the first to open and last to close and citizens have benefited from the public school system.
In India, across states, there is a sense of despair due to unemployment and lack of financial resources, which has snowballed due to the pandemic, resulting in greater inequality. Sending children to school, as opposed to keeping them at home, is a huge financial investment, particularly in the private school system. Uniforms, books, shoes, refreshments, transportation and other material for activities and school programmes are essential for children attending private schools.
Parents have refrained from sending their children back to school due to a lack of funds. Ruchika Dhingra said, “My child is 3 years old and if I enrol her in any of the private pre-schools, the fees are approximately Rs 1,80,000 per annum. I may end up paying the fees and not sending her to school, as the virus may come again. I might as well not enrol her, as we are all facing a financial crunch”. Another parent with two children has admitted the one with the better academic performance in an expensive private school, while the other child was admitted to a mediocre private school with lower fees. The reason they gave was that they did not have the money to educate both children in the same school.
These narratives show a lack of trust in government schools across the country. They would rather educate their children in a poor quality private school than a good government school.
As a result of the pandemic, opportunity gaps have widened, as families do not have the financial capacity to support the education of their children. Many have placed education second to health in the priority list, thereby undermining children’s learning for years to come. The effect will be felt particularly in vulnerable countries and regions.
The big shift that we as a nation have to make is viewing education through a government school lens. This will only take place if states provide the opportunity for free, compulsory, neighbourhood education.
In western nations, over 90 per cent of education is under government control, with extremely well-run schools. Hot meals, uniforms, books, and other learning accessories, including medical care, are provided to the children.
Most children, other than those of extremely privileged citizens, attend public schools. This helps in achieving the sustainable development goals related to hunger, nutrition, quality education and gender equality, finally leading to livelihood and economic growth.
Radical reforms have to be implemented to restructure government schools and ensure quality. Across the country, subsidies are being given for electricity, gas, water, housing, food distribution and other basic amenities. The government, both at the Centre and in the states, should build good-quality primary, middle and high schools and provide facilities that the best private schools have to offer.
Parents have realised the multiple roles that schools play. They provide for the wellbeing of children, health and nutrition along with academic learning. This increased awareness will serve as the basis for a revival of public education.
We are subsumed by the myth that technology has expanded potential. The concern is that online learning will create greater inequality, not only in the global South but even in the most well-resourced corners of the planet. Online learning is not the way
forward.
We need to safeguard the right to education by mobilising government schools to support all stakeholders. The UNESCO’s International Commission on the Futures of Education states in its report, “the core commitments that should always be remembered are public education and common good”. It says, “This is not the time to step back and weaken these principles but rather to affirm and reinforce them.” We must take the opportunity to protect and advance public education.
We cannot allow the government health system and government education to be opposed to one another. Their synergies must overlap. Governments have to be involved with the lifelong learning of people. The French philosopher Edgar Morin observed that “public health and public education are closely interconnected, as they show the undeniable necessity of collaboration, solidarity and collective action for the common good.”
Public education is crucial to societies, communities and individual lives. It is the only thing that will enable us to live with dignity and purpose. We have arrived at a moment, however unexpectedly, where we need to revisit the purpose of schooling and how we organise it. How we thrive should not be a continuation of the world as it was, but of the world that should be: A more sustainable one.
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘A time to revisit the school’. The writer is chairperson and executive director education, DLF Foundation Schools and Scholarship Programmes
Through months of melodrama in Pakistan, many experts expected that the army may intervene again in the name of “saving” the people from an “incompetent and self-serving” political class. Some experts believed that the Pakistan army will avoid taking responsibility for a troubled economy and the evolving complexities of geopolitics. In reality, the army is facing the real prospect of losing its control as well as its sheen. It has cleverly used political and non-political actors to shift the focus to the failures of the Imran Khan government and has set the stage for months of political wrangling between the government and an ex-PM on the loose.
This provides it with time and space to try to regain control within and beyond Pakistan’s borders. The contours of the maneuvers are already visible – including the use of proxy violence in Af-Pak, the aggressive propping up of the Haqqani group against the Kandahar Taliban and shoring up anti-West and extremist rhetoric in Pakistan through political and social media proxies. These dangerous moves are likely to further destabilise Af-Pak and other regions, and ultimately could create a “compelling” case for outside intervention in Afghanistan. The two historical “compelling” situations — the entry of Soviet troops in 1979 and the 9/11 attacks in the US — led to decades of war and violence in Afghanistan and serious spillover effects on the world. The decades since 1979 also led to the creation of some anti-Pakistan groups and resulted in much violence against its people. But the army strengthened its place as an “indispensable player”.
Till date, the army has maintained “supreme” domestic and international standing on four grounds: The use of proxies such as Taliban to ensure that under its rule, Afghanistan could not be used against Pakistan; providing access to the Taliban to the world; its ability to manage internal and external security in a neighborhood portrayed as hostile and functional cooperation with both the US and China, attracting resources and seat at the high table. The army has sold itself as the “savior and pride” of Pakistan and go-to institution for the outside world.
However, the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, has shattered the army’s standing. The world no longer needs it to access the Taliban or Afghanistan. The Taliban has turned the table on the army by steadfastly supporting the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) attacks on Pakistan forces. The attacks picked up pace with the signing of the Doha Agreement in February 2020. Between 2020 and 2021, the number of attacks claimed by the TTP went up from about 180 to over 320 and the casualties of Pakistan forces from 400 to over 800. This year, TTP has claimed over 400 casualties in over 150 attacks on the Pakistan army, paramilitary and police forces across the tribal belt, in Balochistan and key cities.
In the past, the army had managed to curb the TTP’s social media campaigns to hide its casualties. Now, the TTP backed by pro-TTP Taliban accounts is showcasing the names and faces of those getting killed. The Baloch and other groups have also upped the ante and are drawing moral support from the TTP, which is portraying “Afghans, Pashtuns and Balochs” as victims of the army’s brutality and calling for the liberation of the Af-Pak border region. Pashtun anger at the forcible erection of a barrier along the Durand Line is leading to frequent skirmishes with Pakistan’s forces. Acutely aware of serious threats, for months, the army has been struggling to manage the security situation with “unannounced” operations. However, it seems to be failing. After years of blaming foreign agencies for propping up the TTP, it now has no excuse for its failures.
Relations with China, at least in public, remain steadfast. However, Chinese interests in Pakistan are now being targeted more often. The April 26 suicide attack by a Baloch woman on a Chinese team inside Karachi University is a big escalation, which is being hailed by the TTP.
Despite all the talk about counter-terrorism cooperation with the US, coupled with “deliberate bravado” delivered through then PM Khan, the US has not taken the bait. The phone call that the US president never made to the PM seemed to be a loud message to the army about it untrustworthiness. By getting the former PM to court Russia and raise the anti-US rhetoric, the army is trying to create space for some rapprochement with the US.
Fully aware of its own weaknesses in Afghanistan and the dominance of the Pakistan army along its most crucial border, the Taliban also seems to be deeply suspicious of the latter’s intentions. The army’s double dealings have not only hurt its credibility with the West but also with the Taliban, perhaps irreparably. So, while the TTP is keeping the army in check, the Taliban is trying its hand at governing Afghanistan and stitching some loose alliances with other nations.
The army has used its command and control over the Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) to mount deadly attacks on civilians, especially the Shia/Hazara and Taliban leaders and fighters in Afghanistan. In addition, it has been frequently attacking areas across the Durand line, inviting serious backlash from the Taliban-TTP combine as well as Pashtun populations. In a change of tactics, in the past few weeks, apart from Kabul, the ISKP is focusing on targets across non-Pashtun areas of northern Afghanistan. This would help divert the Taliban’s energies to the north and move the conflict closer to Central Asia and Iran. On April 18, the ISKP claimed to have fired a barrage of rockets towards Uzbekistan, which managed well the threats of the “real Daesh”, even through the heydays of the Caliphate. While attempts would be made to somehow break Taliban-TTP links, serious efforts are also visible in South Asia, including in Bangladesh and India, especially in Jammu & Kashmir. The latest propaganda of the ISKP and the other Pakistan proxy, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), is just one indicator of threats building up to “reverse stretch” the neighbors, while the army tries to regain its control and sheen.
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘An army under siege’. The writer is an IPS officer. Views are personal
After the rampaging virus, flaming prices are the new global scourge. Systemically important central banks that viewed the consistent uptick in inflation as transitory — caused by post-pandemic supply shocks — are now finding it hard to bottle the genie. Expectations that commodity and oil prices would cool down in 2022 as the pandemic ebbed were belied by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which exacerbated existing pressures. Fresh lockdowns in China are also extending the pandemic-induced supply-chain bottlenecks.
What central banks like even less is having to deal with rising inflation in times of weak growth. Because the primary tool they have to fight it — the interest rate hike — can be recessionary.
Cut to India, and you can see domestic inflation broad-basing in fiscal 2023. In just two months (between February and April), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sharply revised upwards its consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation forecast to 5.7 per cent from 4.5 per cent for this fiscal.
CPI inflation averaged 6.3 per cent in the January-March 2022, above the RBI’s target range of 2-6 per cent. The RBI forecasts inflation for April-June at 6.3 per cent. One more quarter over the 6 per cent mark, and the central bank would owe the government an explanation.
But India’s inflation — unlike in advanced countries where sizeable fiscal stimulus also contributed to the heating up of prices — has been largely “imported” via exogenous supply shocks. Pertinently, private consumption demand continues to be the weakest link in gross domestic product (GDP) growth so far. What’s noteworthy, though, is that the drivers of inflation are morphing.
In fiscal 2021, inflationary pressures came largely from food and, to some extent, core (which excludes fuel and food). Back then, fuel inflation was quite benign. In fiscal 2022, crude prices hardened to emerge as the new driver. Core inflation firmed up further. But the drop in food inflation offset this, so overall inflation was lower at 5.5 per cent compared with 6.2 per cent the previous year.
What makes this fiscal worrying is, all three are firmly pointing in the same direction — up. Truly, the inflation hydra is on the horizon. A breakdown by each component helps clarify this.
Fuel inflation, in double digits for a year now, shows no signs of easing. Energy prices have risen sharply across the board — from crude oil to coal and natural gas. The cut in excise duties on petrol and diesel in November 2021 is insufficient to bring down fuel inflation, in the event crude prices stay above $90 per barrel this fiscal. We also expect some delayed pass-through from last fiscal, given that prices of petrol, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas and compressed natural gas were kept unchanged between November and March, despite rising international prices.
Food is the most volatile component and biggest mover of CPI inflation, given that it occupies 39 per cent weight in the average consumption basket. On the positive side, India looks set to enjoy a fourth successive year of normal monsoon and still has good buffer stocks of rice and wheat. But the monsoon is yet to play out and its distribution is always a bit of a wild card. Some other factors that adversely influence output and prices, such as the recent heatwave that is projected to impact wheat yields this year, are creeping up.
What is certain, though, is the rising cost of food production. Prices of fertilisers, pesticides, diesel and animal feed are all surging. This will lead to higher minimum support prices (MSPs) this fiscal since they are pegged on changes in cost of production. MSPs also factor in international price trends.
Prices of wheat and sugar (India’s major exports), and vegetable oils (a major import) have skyrocketed post Russia-Ukraine war. Already pricey edible oils are set to get even costlier, with Indonesia’s recent ban on refined palm oil exports adding pressure. No wonder then, food inflation is expected to rise.
Finally, core inflation, a barometer of demand pressures, will continue to climb despite an environment of weak demand, thanks to the persistence of supply shocks.
For producers, the bump-up in international prices across energy and metal commodities since the war has brought more pain. The average wholesale price index-linked (WPI) inflation last fiscal was at 12.9 per cent — the highest in 30 years and non-food WPI inflation was at 15.7 per cent.
But a weak and uneven demand recovery means producers had limited ability to pass on cost pressures to consumers. Such pass-through has been partial, at best: For most goods, CPI inflation has been much lower than the corresponding WPI last fiscal. The pattern of recovery is also uneven across different segments, with contact-intensive services lagging formal manufacturing, and rural wages slowing in contrast with rising wages in the urban formal sector.
All this is reflected in the pattern of pass-through to consumers. CPI inflation for services at 5.1 per cent in fiscal 2022 has not risen to the same extent as for goods at 6.2 per cent (under core category, excluding petrol and diesel). Within goods, too, greater pass-through is seen in goods consumed by upper income segments, such as passenger cars, paints and packaged food items.
But contact-based services will catch up sooner or later, as restrictions become a thing of the past. Moreover, S&P Global’s PMI data shows that input cost pressures have been higher for services than goods. This will lead to broadening pressure on core inflation.
The last time we saw such broad-basing of inflationary pressures was after the Global Financial Crisis. India’s CPI inflation averaged 9.2 per cent annually between fiscals 2012 and 2014. Food inflation averaged 9.8 per cent and core, 8.6 per cent. In fiscal 2022, these were at 3.8 per cent and 6.0 per cent, respectively. Together, they have 86 per cent weight in the CPI basket. Fuel inflation was slightly lower at 10.9 per cent (fiscals 2012 to 2014) compared with 11.3 per cent (fiscal 2022). The difference this time around is consumer demand, which remains weak and will limit the extent of pass-through.
Forecasting inflation in such uncertain times is fraught with risk. The RBI has predicted ~5.7 per cent consumer inflation this fiscal, while professional forecasters see it at 5.6 per cent. The odds currently favour a higher inflation print, and a rate hike in June.
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘The inflation hydra’. The writers are chief economist and economist at CRISIL Limited
Late one evening, over lukewarm tea, in the middle of discussing gay history and rights in South Asia, noted historian Saleem Kidwai quoted a Faiz Ahmad Faiz nazm (verse) to me. Its famous first line was “Aaj bazaar mein pa-ba-jaulan chalo”, quite literally meaning “Let us walk in the market in chains”. He explained that Faiz wrote this nazm while being taken in chains from prison by the military dictatorship at the time in Pakistan. It spoke about how we would all need to walk openly wearing the chains we are bound in by society until we achieve freedom.
Years later, it surprised me, pleasantly, that this very nazm was being taught to young CBSE students. Another line from this nazm is even more inspiring, as it tells its readers that it is “not enough to shed tears, to suffer anguish, not enough to nurse love in secret…Today, walk in the public square fettered in chains”.
In these troubled, divisive times, reading Faiz is balm to our frayed nerves. Teaching it to our kids, well, now that’s asking for trouble. After all, don’t we want our kids to cooperate, to comply, and to fit in this new world? Don’t we want them to follow rules and not question the status quo? Why, then, teach them about freedom or protest? Why should we let them read Faiz?
Recent news reports tell us that the revised Class X CBSE textbooks have bid goodbye to Faiz, along with chapters on “democracy and diversity” that documented social division and inequalities in India. Along with these deletions, two chapters on “popular struggles and movements” and “challenges to democracy” have been dropped as well. It’s unclear whether these will be replaced or entirely obliterated from the textbooks.
This is not all. Those in Class XI and XII will no longer read about the Non-Aligned Movement, the Cold War era, the rise of Islamic empires in Afro-Asian territories, the chronicles of the Mughal courts or the industrial revolution. One wonders how, then, will they make sense of India’s foreign policy, its current stance in the Ukraine war or understand the depth of the influence of Mughal India? It’s confusing as we don’t know if what arrives in its place will inform these students more eloquently about these concepts.
Perhaps, all these deletions and exclusions are good news. This is the order of our days. In today’s times, ideas, especially those of diversity, struggles and non-alignment, are dangerous for young minds. What if they begin asking questions? What if they refuse to hate, or grow up unprejudiced? What if they turn to seek a path of protest? The entire purpose of education would be lost. They, then, are unlikely to fit in anywhere while discussing such ideas or reading Faiz.
So it’s not surprising that many think the consequences of these exclusions are insignificant. We grew up reading everyone from Ramdhari Singh Dinkar, Agyeya, and Mahadevi Varma, alongside Faiz. Our ideas of dissent and freedom were informed as much by the material we read in textbooks as by the poetry we quoted — albeit in jest as we were still too young to comprehend its depth of meaning.
But the poetry stuck with us and does till today. We argued and questioned the rules, refusing the hate that society and the media handed out to us. Faiz and his friends did indeed ruin us.
So, for us ruined folks who grew up believing in the idea of a Subcontinental culture that sweeps across what we now recognise as independent countries, Faiz and other exclusions seem a deep cut. But it comes as no surprise, either. Faiz, whose words surround us in the popular culture of the Subcontinent, has always troubled the minds of smaller men. His poetry is remembered and reinvented every few years enrapturing us, yet again.
Erasure, of Faiz, or the ideas of humanism, democracy, and diversity is not possible. But do ask what these exclusions will cost our future generations. What will our children learn about the ideals on which the world’s largest democracy brought together peoples of different languages, cultures, food habits and faiths? People who struggled together against oppression in action, poetry and song. And yet always found enough common ground to live together, irrespective of the many divisions of caste, class, gender, language and faith.
Reading Faiz in these times — when your religion, not your culture, is your identity, when the choice of what to wear, what to eat, what music to listen to is curtailed — is certainly needed. But who will argue for him to be read by our children?
Meanwhile, despite these deletions, Faiz, the poet, though long gone, continues to fervently ask questions. Someone mentions Faiz, someone sings him, someone quotes him. And then, he comes back again, rudely, uninvited, into the room and the conversation. With him creep in ideas of freedom, democracy, dissent, diversity, and exclusion. And then someone quotes another nazm. This time, it’s the familiar “Hum dekhenge”. We shall see…
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘Faiz is in the room’. The writer is a public health expert
Propriety suggests a tried and tested method for making conclusions. It begins with formulating a hypothesis, testing it through research and then assessing its correctness. Another alternative is to turn this method on its head and work backwards. It entails the formulation of a favourable conclusion, which is followed by cherry-picking facts. Unfortunately, this method is in vogue and it is surprising to see renowned academicians opt for the same.
In an article in this paper (‘The folly of an atmanirbhar internet‘, IE, March 30), Bhaskar Chakravorti took a veiled and somewhat exasperated swing at the country, the government, and oddly, the Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology, Rajeev Chandrasekhar. The article presents scattered criticism focused largely on the newly introduced Information Technology Rules (IT Rules) that lay down guidelines for social media intermediaries, along with stray observations on India’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Grievances against India’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine crisis warrant no explanation. India has always adopted a stance of peace when faced with issues of violence. This approach is not novel; it has been promoted at multiple points in time. The subsequent part of Chakravorti’s article criticises the IT Rules and the idea of an atmanirbhar internet. However, before responding to these misplaced criticisms, we must understand why the government introduced such legislation in the first place.
With the introduction of the IT Rules, the government aims to strike a balance between the commercial interests of social media platforms and the rights of its citizens in the digital sphere. In this context, it is of the utmost importance to point out the role of the nodal officer. In case of a crisis, this officer’s coordination with law enforcement agencies will facilitate timely action and provide a platform for a victim to seek urgent recourse. The shameful Sulli Deals and the Bulli Bai controversy drive home the relevance of such regulations.
The country’s judiciary, too, has highlighted the need for statutory guidelines to curb the spread of content that incites violence. Courts have regularly pulled up social media platforms for failing to do their bit in ensuring a dependable platform for their users. Recently, the Delhi High Court questioned Twitter on its lackadaisical approach in blocking an account that was ridiculing Hindu deities and reprimanded the platform for its lack of responsibility.
Those criticising the information technology minister’s call for an atmanirbhar internet mistake self-sufficiency for protectionism. This defeatist reaction was seen in the past as well when the government announced the RuPay Cards and Unified Payments Interface as an alternative to Visa and MasterCard. Today, the UPI and RuPay success story is studied and analysed across the world. Initiatives such as these encourage the development of alternative organic ecosystems and ensure that we are not left at the mercy of tech giants.
The article disappointingly presents a one-sided picture. It claims that compliance officers of social media intermediaries would be criminally liable for content on their platforms. In reality, social media intermediaries enjoy the privilege of legal immunity under Indian law. Criminal liability is only imposed upon failure to observe measures of due diligence. It also falsely alleges that the premises of Twitter were raided by the police. Actually, officials of the Delhi police visited the premises of Twitter India to merely serve a notice. Much of the criticism in the article is directed towards Rajeev Chandrasekhar. It would be pertinent to mention that Chandrasekhar has vast experience in the field of technology and policymaking.
Those putting forth such ill-conceived arguments should look inward. Policymakers across the United States have raised concerns about the hegemony of Big Tech and have introduced legislation to curb the same. The support for these pieces of legislation cuts across party lines — senators such as Rob Portman (a Republican) and Amy Klobuchar (a Democrat) are amongst their supporters.
Critics would do well to do some homework about the United States’ legislative response to Big Tech before dissecting India’s actions regarding the same.
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 28, 2022 under the title ‘Why atmanirbhar internet’. The writer is managing partner, Parinam Law Associates
The Supreme Court’s resumption of its hearing into petitions seeking the scrapping of the sedition provision in IPC comes at a time when this colonial era law is becoming a major threat to political and personal freedoms. Section 124A IPC punishes words or actions that attempt to incite hatred, contempt and disaffection towards governments with three years to life imprisonment. “Hatred”, “contempt” and “disaffection” are such broad phrases that even legitimate criticism or dissent can earn a sedition charge. Not surprisingly, hundreds of dissenters over the years have paid a heavy price after being falsely accused of “deshdroh”.
For British imperialists, it was the ideal legal instrument to jail freedom fighters like Bal Gangadhar Tilak and Mahatma Gandhi for long periods because other than their political writings and utterances against the Crown, no other serious crime could be attributed to them. Today’s governments are guilty of the same tactic of prosecuting thoughts and words when there’s precious little to target their political rivals. At this juncture, SC should discard any notions that setting guardrails will force police and governments to behave.
The 1962 Kedar Nath Singh judgment had attempted to narrow sedition to offences betraying an “intention” and “tendency” to cause public disorder or endanger state security. Six decades hence, we know with absolute certainty that it has had no tempering influence on police or governments. SC and high courts have repeatedly had to emphasise that criticism of governments isn’t sedition but the message just doesn’t percolate. That’s because for thana cops directed by authorities to fix political opponents, the sedition provision’s continuing existence in IPC makes it the most handy tool to inflict harassment.
Not only is sedition cognisable and non-bailable, it doesn’t require an actual crime to have been committed, and lends itself easily to criminalising any political expression, even those protected by India’s free speech laws. Not surprisingly, sedition has been invoked against writers, cartoonists, politicians, and even ordinary citizens like the thousands of villagers who agitated against the Koodankulam nuclear plant in Tamil Nadu. The growing trend of private complaints of sedition where any motivated individual can lodge a sedition complaint and make life hell for people not even remotely connected to the complainant must also be noted by SC. Britain, which gifted India sedition, extirpated it from the country’s statute in 2009. SC should do the honours for India and scrap the sedition provision.
There’s no denying that the Russian invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified by any yardstick. The military invasion, now in its third month, of a sovereign nation violates every international law and convention. This is precisely why this paper has argued that India, notwithstanding its deep ties with Russia, should take a principled position on the Ukraine crisis and condemn Russian military operations. That said, foreign minister S Jaishankar is absolutely right in asserting that Europe has no moral high ground in questioning India’s stance on the Ukraine issue. For, despite their talk of upholding a rules-based order and standing up to authoritarian regimes, EU nations continue to buy Russian energy that boosts the Russian war chest by an estimated €1 billion every day.
Not to mention the fact that Europe has also been quite ambivalent about India’s strategic concerns. It was quite happy doing business with China – overlooking Beijing’s belligerence in the Indo-Pacific, including against India – until the US cracked the whip and decided to counter Chinese designs. Therefore, just as Europe is unable to suddenly wean itself off Russian energy, India too needs to consider practical aspects of its relationship with Russia, especially in the defence sector. Besides, there are also signs that the West is changing its strategy from just helping Ukraine defend itself to decisively weakening Russia. This creates a dangerous situation and a cornered Moscow may react in unpredictable ways. Hence, dialogue – both between Ukraine and Russia and between the US-led West and Moscow – is the best way to defuse this crisis.
At the end of the day, countries act on their strategic interests. Given this, the EU should be doing more to create strategic complementarities with India. From partnering India in the Indo-Pacific to fast-tracking the India-EU free trade negotiations, much work remains to be done. The EU must walk the talk. Lecturing India won’t help.
The pandemic is far from over. After two years, the world is finding ways to live and function, while accepting the realities of Covid-19. The relaxation of Covid protocols following the Omicron wave is fuelling the current surge in cases. In this context, Narendra Modi's push to chief ministers to remain alert and step up efforts is welcome.
There is a need to step up compliance to Covid protocols, especially as the recent rise in cases is taking place despite a robust rollout of the vaccination programme. The XE variant transmits rapidly and easily. Which is why practical measures to contain the spread of infections - however 'milder' the variant may be compared to earlier ones - are needed. This includes reinstating the mask mandate, especially in states seeing a rapid rise in numbers. The suggestion to step up the pace of vaccination of adolescents by conducting special programmes in schools is something that states should act on, especially as the expert group is considering expanding the threshold to include 5-12-year-olds.
The Centre, on its part, needs to step up momentum and support for developing improved vaccines to counter new variants and providing better immunity, along with developing therapeutics for treatment. The other issue that GoI must deal with on a war footing is international recognition of its vaccines and vaccine protocols. This includes ensuring a robust 'booster' protocol, backed up with publication of efficacy studies. India, with its large and diverse population, can provide the necessary data for developing a better vaccine. There is no reason for it to miss this opportunity. The PM's call to let science define our response to the pandemic is spot on. Now, the governments need to heed that advice.
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A government-appointed committee to review the quality of audits has recommended the powers of the National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) be enlarged to act against auditors and company managements. These include seeking information from, and acting against, promoters, directors and executives in the course of investigation into the conduct of auditors. The Companies Act now restricts NFRA to investigating misconduct by auditors. It is toothless to deal with violations that exceed this narrow definition. The authority had, last year, highlighted the widespread malaise of statutory auditors not filing their annual returns, which are meant to provide details of withdrawing from audit assignments.
The committee has also set out new conditions for auditors, like reviewing the list of proscribed non-audit work in large companies, looking into the books of subsidiaries, standardising the manner of audit qualifications, joint audits for certain categories of companies, and providing a statutory backing for forensic audits. These bring oversight of Indian auditors in alignment with global practices. In a separate legislation, GoI has introduced a layer of supervision into the disciplinary process of the self-governing bodies for chartered accountants, cost accountants and company secretaries.
GoI has been moving with caution on improving regulatory oversight of auditing while allowing the independence the profession is accustomed to. Forensic audits into corporate malfeasance and assessment by NFRA have emphasised the inability of the professional bodies to deter their members from rogue activity. A parliamentary standing committee had even suggested setting up a new body to bring the accounting profession up to speed in the current business environment. GoI has not pushed the envelope that far, but it has set deadlines for hearings into disciplinary matters and set out stiffer penalties for wrongdoing. More power to NFRA in amendments to the Companies Act meshes in with heightened scrutiny of the auditing profession.
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Prime minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s remarks on April 27, where he named some non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruled states and asked them to bring down taxes on petrol-diesel have expectedly created a political controversy. To be sure, the PM is actually correct. Data from the ministry of petroleum shows that most BJP ruled states seem to have a lower tax on petrol and diesel than the states Mr Modi named in his remarks. However, the complete picture on the taxation of petroleum products is far more complicated. At least four factors must be kept in mind.
Value-added tax on fossil fuels is the only major source of own tax revenue for the states along with taxes on alcoholic beverages and stamp duties after the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). With state finances already stretched, letting go of revenues from this route is not an easy choice. This is the biggest reason why petroleum products were kept out of GST. However, the economic burden due to higher taxes is real. Although the Centre did cut Union excise duties on petrol-diesel in November 2021, it has still not fully revoked the hike in duties which was brought in after the pandemic. Large parts of this windfall tax gain came via the special duty route and have not been shared with the states. Because most state taxes on petrol/diesel are levied as a share of the basic price, they go up or down every time the base price increases or decreases. Central taxes are mostly immune to such price-based fluctuations. Last but not the least, the fossil fuel market in India is only partially deregulated despite official claims to the contrary. This is best seen in price freezes ahead of election cycles. Such policies also add an element of volatility to the tax collections of states.
These four factors make it clear that it is difficult for either the Centre or the states to claim the moral high ground. Also, it would be naive to see the issue without the larger context of the brewing political economy crisis in fiscal federalism, where non-BJP-ruled states are increasingly resorting to unsustainable populist schemes to counter the BJP’s centralised welfare delivery narrative (including in areas that are in the state list). An amicable resolution of these issues calls for an earnest effort to build an honest discussion at a proper Centre-state forum. Throwing polemics at the problem will only worsen the trust deficit between the Centre and the states.
It’s widely acknowledged that companies, usually family-managed, but sometimes also professionally run, hire consultants to state obvious but unpleasant truths that they themselves cannot, and act on them. The Congress’s dalliance with Prashant Kishor needs to be seen in this context — though there is some merit in asking the question that some are: What’s in it for him?
It is almost universally known that the Congress’s problems lie along four dimensions: Generational (as in some of its most senior leaders are, well, most senior); leadership; organisational and structural; and communicative (the inability to come up with a message that captures the imagination of the voters, and the further inability to widely disseminate this message). The party’s troubles are amplified by the fact that its national rival and current political hegemon, the Bharatiya Janata Party, does well on all four aspects. While it may not take an outsider to solve these problems, it is perhaps easier for one to articulate them, and, if empowered, try to solve them, although, given the internal dynamics of the Congress party it is unlikely that an outsider will find acceptance. Nor, for that matter, will an insider (the Gandhi family excepted).
For the Congress, the recent episode can, at best, be seen as a crash course (not that it needs one) on all that ails it and, at worst, a desperate attempt at course correction. Perhaps the real question the party needs to ask itself is why, despite knowing what is wrong, it repeatedly refuses to do the right thing. It has enough incentive to do so; and resources can always be discovered. It may boil down to that most intangible but also most desirable aspects of leadership: The courage to change.
The rise in the number of nuclear families with disposable incomes, growing population, rapid urbanisation, land shortage, and the ease in housing finance are key drivers for the growth of several residential townships in and around Indian cities.
Residential housing forms one of the most significant parts of the real estate sector in India. It contributes to 80% of the sector, which is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. It is estimated that around 10 million people migrate to cities every year in search of better employment opportunities. It is, therefore, expected that the number of Indians living in urban areas will reach 525 million by 2025.
Globally, India is among the top 10 price-appreciating housing markets due to a surge in demand for housing properties. Policy support by the government such as allowing 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) for townships and settlements development projects, lowering the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate to 5%, growing transparency through the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, (RERA), 2016, has given a huge push to the expansion of residential townships across India.
It is expected that India’s per capita water availability will decline to 1,401 cubic metres and 1,191 cubic metres by 2025 and 2050, respectively. The average domestic water demand will also increase from 85 litres per capita per day (lpcd) in 2000 to 125 lpcd and 170 lpcd by 2025 and 2050, respectively. The projected water demand of 1,498 billion cubic metres will exceed the supply of 744 billion cubic metres — two-fold — by 2050.
The deteriorating quality of natural water bodies, due to the discharge of untreated sewage, also poses a serious concern. India generates 61,754 million litres per day (MLD) of sewage, of which 63% remains untreated. Waste generation is further expected to increase and the projected wastewater in cities could reach up to 1,20,000 MLD by 2051.
The proliferation of residential townships has greatly magnified the issue due to increased water demand, exerting pressure on an already dwindling resource. Inadequate water supply, depleting groundwater tables, growing water demand, and its misuse in townships are posing challenges to building professional urban local bodies.
Developers have also continuously been redefining the township model as per the market demand. But now, there is an urgent need for the township model to be rediscovered with a growing focus on water conservation and zero-wastewater discharge.
With growing environmental concerns, buyers today are increasingly interested in homes being equipped with water-saving measures. Residential townships consist of various facilities for all residents in close proximity to them. As the complexity of the township model increases, the management of water resources — especially wastewater and stormwater — should be looked at with prime importance.
The recently launched guidebook by Mahindra-The Energy and Resources Institute’s Centre of Excellence (CoE), a joint research initiative, highlights measures that can be adopted by existing and upcoming residential townships to achieve water use optimisation and efficiency. It stresses the reduction of water usage, the harnessing of alternative water sources, and the integration of green infrastructure.
These guidelines can form a template to aid townships to move on the path to becoming net-water positive. It recommends measures that are innovative, practical, and easy to implement as they have been developed after conducting thorough research and water audits of several townships across India to design sustainable solutions.
The potential impact of adopting these guidelines will help occupants reduce their dependence on freshwater and contribute to rejuvenating the strained resource through water conservation techniques in urban India. The intent is to mainstream the best techniques and practices related to water saving, stormwater management, groundwater replenishment, rainwater harvesting, and reuse and recycling of treated wastewater. This will help India fulfil its domestic need for water, and also mitigate the climate crisis.
Tarishi Kaushik is a research associate, Sustainable Buildings Division, TERI
The views expressed are personal
A recent article in this newspaper attempted to decode the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s model of welfarism, but ended up mischaracterising it. Failing to look beyond the western binaries of socialism and neoliberalism and examining the BJP’s rich ideological history, commentators fail to understand the BJP’s outlook on welfare and economic development.
Welfarism under the Narendra Modi government is driven by the BJP’s consistent commitment to its foundational value of Antyodaya (no one is left behind), and was necessitated by the dismal state of public service delivery when the party assumed office in 2014.
Since its foundation, the BJP and its leaders have remained committed to Deendayal Upadhyaya’s principle of Antyodaya. Prime Minister (PM) Modi’s promise of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (with everyone, for everyone’s development) embodies this goal of inclusive development. Unlike the Congress and other Opposition parties which have deployed welfare as a quid pro quo strategy and tied delivery to electoral support, the BJP’s dharma (religion) is working for the poorest of the poor and ensuring that no one is left behind. This is because eliminating poverty through the provision of welfare is essentially the duty and responsibility of the government, rather than an instrumental strategy to win elections.
Before 2014, millions of households did not have access to even basic services such as electricity, water, sanitation, housing, and banking. Decades of disregard for effectiveness and efficiency was evident and concerted efforts were required for improving welfare provisioning. And, so, we set out to change the status quo and turn India’s welfare provisioning around.
In the past eight years, we have ensured that citizens, irrespective of caste, religion, gender, or partisan identification, can get the benefits of schemes for which they are eligible. We are moving swiftly towards saturated coverage of flagship programmes, so that no one is left behind. Aren’t these the features of a rights-based approach?
There has not only been a remarkable turnaround in the output of various welfare schemes, but also a significant improvement in outcomes. This has been documented through rigorous evaluations and studies. For instance, a recent International Monetary Fund report found that extreme poverty in India did not increase during Covid-19. This is due to free grain distribution under the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana. The World Resources Institute’s study on the Ujjwala Yojana revealed a reduction in air pollution deaths, saving more than 150,000 lives every year. However, many analysts choose to remain silent rather than acknowledge these inconvenient truths.
There is a misconception that welfarism under Modi focuses merely on distributing “private benefits” to citizens while important areas such as health and education remain ignored. This is a myopic analysis and a failure to understand the holistic benefits of welfare schemes under the Modi government.
For instance, isn’t the Swachh Bharat Mission a health intervention too, as it seeks to end open defecation? Wouldn’t the assistance provided to agriculture households through PM Kisan Samman Nidhi programme enable them to invest in the education and nutrition of children?
Despite the active role of the State, extensive coverage, and redistribution of public resources, some commentators remain fixated on terming welfare under Modi as “neoliberal”. They expect the government not only to build private toilets for tens of millions of households, but also to provide for their maintenance. Anything less than that is casually dismissed as “neoliberalism”. The only aspect of Swachh Bharat that promotes individualism is that rather than open defecation in fields, people are urged to use private toilets n their residences. Is the Jal Jeevan Mission also neo-liberal as it aims to shift people from the drudgery of getting water from distant sources such as village ponds and wells to individual tap connections?
So, what is welfarism under the Modi government? It involves replacing the ancien regime of State-led patronage with an efficient State that delivers on its promises. It has meant building a State that refuses to accept corruption as a fait accompli and takes active measures to maximise coverage. Moreover, it is a break from an unfortunate past when PMs admitted that a mere 15 paise out of ₹1 sent from Delhi reached the poor, but did nothing to plug leakages.
Under PM Modi, the government has taken concrete steps such as shifting to direct benefit transfers (DBTs) to plug leakages in welfare provisioning. This focus on maximising coverage is what makes the BJP’s model of welfarism distinct from those of other parties.
To comprehensively understand what welfarism under Modi means and why it resonates among the masses, commentators need to travel beyond Delhi, keep their ears to the ground, and listen to the 30 million families which have got a new home under the PM Awas Yojana, the 120 million farmers who are labharthis (beneficiaries) of the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi, the 800 million labharthis who have been receiving ration since the pandemic started, the 450 million citizens who opened their first bank account through the Jan Dhan Yojana, or the 90 million households that got their first LPG cylinder through the Ujjwala Yojana.
Syed Zafar Islam is an MP, national spokesperson of the BJP, and former managing director, Deutsche Bank, India
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a good occasion to contextualise foreign policy and its practice over time. It is also a good time to recognise the changing imperatives for India in navigating its choices.
In the years before the 1800s, the term foreign policy could easily be confused with conquest. Leaders created strong armies and navies to impose their suzerainty on other kingdoms and used the royalties they collected to strengthen their armies and navies, build monuments, fill their coffers and spend conspicuously, thereby obtaining glory.
Some wrinkles were added to the maxim of “power for pillage” in the conduct of foreign policy, with the rise of liberal democracies and capitalism around the 1800s. In the reign of King George III, substantial powers moved from the monarch to parliament, including the selection of the prime minister. In the same period, America became a constitutional democracy.
However, this did not prevent the continued colonisation of many parts of Asia and Africa. Military power was still key, but extraction was aided by more legalistic means such as taxation, and forced exports and imports from the colonies. The rents extracted were also used for other purposes, beyond just strengthening the military. The economy benefited and modernised, and there was a widening per capita gap between the rulers and the ruled.
The wrinkle, as it were, was still important. Democracy brought with it a new vocabulary, the cry in the French Revolution of Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite was tough to restrict only to the citizens of that country. To counter such “seditious aspirations”, Rudyard Kipling articulated the colonist’s most forceful justification in his poem, The White Man’s Burden — which was a “duty” asserted by white people to manage the affairs of non-white people, as they were believed to be less developed. It was the ultimate hegemony of the superpower, where the interests of the hegemon were argued to be the interests of the whole world. The narrative was owned by the hegemon and its powerful media, which gave convincing airtime to this commentary.
Mahatma Gandhi cleverly used this narrative against the British in crafting India’s freedom struggle. He highlighted the immorality of British rule by exposing its egregious excesses that deprived Indians of their fundamental economic freedom and right to livelihood. He weaponised the narrative of democracy to make a case for freedom and independence, at great personal cost to himself and fellow freedom fighters who would also face imprisonment and beatings for over three decades. After a while, even parts of western media were forced to recognise the injustices and cruelty of British rule. Despite that, India achieved Independence only after World War II (WWII), with a shift in global power from Britain to the United States (US).
Interestingly, after Independence, China and India agreed on, and adopted, the Panchsheel Principles of mutual respect and non-aggression, which, in some sense, led to the creation of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). China violated these principles when it attacked India in 1962, but the latter remained a leader of NAM, supporting the oppressed, be they in Palestine or South Africa.
Post-WWII, NAM tried to stay outside of the two major blocks — the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union. Over time, the US moved closer to Pakistan due to its need to find a buffer against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
India’s stance on Palestine (against Israel), Soviet support for India in the 1971 war with Pakistan (creating Bangladesh), India’s nuclear explosion in 1974, and its refusal to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, India’s purchase of armaments from the Soviet Union, and Richard Nixon’s dislike of Indira Gandhi, all took India closer to the Soviets.
India’s foreign policy was shaken by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and India’s horrible balance of payments crisis in 1991. This forced a reset. Fortuitously, the crisis led to India undertaking economic reforms, with support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which led to the opening up of the economy and a consistent growth period thereafter.
In 1998, India conducted a set of underground nuclear explosions, resulting in international criticism and moderate US sanctions to exercise strategic autonomy. At the time, the US was championing the integration of China into the global trading system, including the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The 2000-2010 decade gave the Chinese economy a $5 trillion-fillip, putting it on its path to superpower-dom; then 9/11 created an opportunity for India to foster closer ties with the US, as the latter’s views on Pakistan altered (even more so after Osama bin Laden was found in a Pakistani military cantonment). This was strengthened by the power and wealth of the Indian diaspora in the US. Their presence in politics, business, technology, medicine, and academia led to a softening of US perceptions of India.
Post-2014, US views on China changed. President Donald Trump called out China as the US’s biggest threat, a view that now has full bipartisan support and continues under Joe Biden. In this superpower rivalry, Pakistan has now thrown its lot with China and Vladimir Putin’s miscalculation in Ukraine, has made Russia follow suit.
The US now sees India as a counter-balance to China. Likewise, India cannot ally with China and Pakistan, its key rivals, and its technology needs are much closer aligned with the US. Unfortunately, India’s dependence on arms purchases from Russia has complicated its current options, even making it abstain from voting in the United Nations with Pakistan and China. This is not in its interest. Going forward, as Russia becomes a subaltern partner to China, dependence on Russian arms will be very risky.
India must shift its arms purchases away from Russia to the West. Simultaneously, the government must provide predictability and reliability in defence demand, so that the private sector enters defence production in a big way.
This is where our future lies.
Janmejaya Sinha is chairman, BCG India
The views expressed are personal
India is a religious country with uncountable faiths and ways of meditation. We are the oldest and richest civilisation. Our scriptures date back to at least 6,000 years ago and are considered to be the manuals for unlocking the inner potential and happiness of human beings. A large part of the 1.38 billion people meditate or try to meditate, and yet, we are 136th in the world happiness index and 13th in the world stress index. Why?
Have you ever sat down to meditate and found that within a few minutes you felt distracted? For some reason, you are not able to focus on the mantra you are reciting, the scripture you are reading, or even on the simple activity of breathing. Your mind goes into "auto-pilot" mode, hopping from one thought to the next, and returns only when the stipulated meditation time is over. For this reason, many of us feel empty even after many meditation sessions. Some resign, thinking that it’s not their cup of tea. For others, their ubiquitous inner critic wakes up and asks, “Why can’t you sit still? When would you get hold of your thoughts?” The answer lies in the realisation that you were not present during the precious moments of meditation, and then to make concerted efforts to become more present.
The practice of mindfulness enables us to listen to our inner critics and examine what they are trying to achieve. With this awareness, our thoughts simply glide, like clouds in the sky, and we tend to start thinking clearly.
Do you often feel that your mind wavers between past and future, between unaccomplished goals of years that are behind us and our vision for days that are ahead? Sometimes, we are caught in the mundane, of our to-do lists, and the repair work that needs attention then comes frivolous. With our minds full of pointless thoughts, it is incredibly difficult to focus on things that matter the most.
Here again, mindfulness comes to your rescue.
Mindfulness. It’s a pretty straightforward word. To be mindful is to be aware of your own experience, on purpose, every moment, without attaching any judgments. Mindfulness is a practice that can help you manage and prevent feelings of depression, stress, anxiety, or discontent. It enables you to live a more focused, grateful, and purposeful life.
Mindfulness is a value that we all already possess. It’s not something you have to get from someone or somewhere; you just have to learn how to access it.
Author Narayan Liebenson Grady in her book, When Singing, Just Sing — Life as Meditation, provides simple tips on how to be mindful.
“When sitting, just sit.
When eating, just eat.
When walking, just walk.
When talking, just talk.
When listening, just listen.
When looking, just look.
When touching, just touch.
When thinking, just think.
When playing, just play
And enjoy the feeling of each moment and each day.”
Here I add: When meditating, just meditate.
How? The answer is easy: Pause and be an observer of your thoughts, feelings, sensations, and surroundings. We are often so busy in our thoughts that we miss noticing what is happening outside of our minds.
For example, when I walked to school as a child, my mind would be thinking of homework, biology lessons, friends, and hockey practice. A few years ago, when I walked the same path, I realised how much I missed out on: I missed the beautiful lake, the trees, and the most sublime of all, the smell of the wildflowers. Their fragrance was a treat to the soul.
Mindfulness is a secular practice. It brings us back to the present moment from the messes in our heads. We call it mindful awareness. It's just like clearing the fields of all the weeds, unwanted shrubs, and stones before planting a new crop. Once the field is ready, one can grow what one wants and have a good yield.
Mindfulness helps you prepare the field of your mind to grow the crop of your beloved religion, whatever one's idea of religion is, and harvest the hidden gems which enable you to live a happy, content, and blissful life.
Bhupinder Sandhu is a London-based mindfulness coach who believes in the human ability to build a blissful world together
The views expressed are personal
New Delhi: Much of what’s in the public domain on election strategist Prashant Kishor’s interactions with the Congress leadership is based on part-knowledge of his nine-hour-long presentation to Sonia Gandhi — who redacted and controlled other party functionaries’ access to the blueprint on offer for the Congress’s revival.
Kishor has since excused himself from being part of an empowered action group (EAG) Gandhi proposed at the end of the talks for the 2024 general elections. But the manner in which he phrased the announcement, via a tweet, left scope for revisiting the issue, maybe not immediately, but after an interregnum:
Most importantly, people in the know of things insist the talks not making a headway does not mean a breakdown of communication between the principal interlocutors.
From bipartisan accounts of Kishor’s exhaustive talks with the Congress’s apex leadership and a committee detailed to study his proposals, it seems the process did not get stalled over the engagement of India Political Action Committee (I-PAC), a company he founded, with other political parties. Neither was his position in the pecking order within the Congress a make or break issue.
The question of what post could be on offer for Kishor and be acceptable to him did come up for negotiations. But he wasn’t as much fixated on that as on the party’s commitment to carry out the reforms he prescribed and was willing to fine-tune in synch with the feedback received from senior leaders in the loop.
In one of his many interactions with the leadership, Kishor remarked to the effect that a ranking office in the Congress hierarchy wasn’t his priority. He was quoted as saying that he was intelligent enough to know that no post would be beyond his reach if his roadmap helped the party to revive and attain its goals.
Kishor also presented his past association with I-PAC as an advantage in making poll alliances when the time is ripe. It wasn’t in any case a new issue. The Congress high command knew from where he came and wasn’t unduly discomfited, unlike other Congressmen, by the “conflict of interest” chorus over the company’s ongoing or past projects with K Chandrashekar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Jaganmohan Reddy’s Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), MK Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazagham or Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress.
Presented as sticky in the public discourse, the TRS issue, in fact, was studied with reference to the “Kerala template” that guided the Congress’s ties with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) at the Centre and in the state. Perennial rivals in Kerala’s bipolar polity, they’ve mostly worked together at the federal level.
Perception-wise, there indeed were sharp differences within the Congress on I-PAC’s activities. A section of the party leaders Gandhi co-opted for advice underscored its downsides to voice circumspection. The flip side discussed with some emphasis in the internal talks was that Kishor’s proximity to I-PAC could at the least help keep parties the company serviced, on the secular side of the political divide against the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2024 big-ticket polls.
In his earlier failed talks with the Congress before the recent elections to five state assemblies, Kishor had predicted a 5-0 washout of the party. The negotiations revived when the reality he forecast hit the party in the face, coaxing it towards the leap of faith it couldn’t take in the first instance.
The fresh interaction that didn’t reach fruition even this time was way more exhaustive and serious. So much so that the tricky leadership issue with focus on the role of the Gandhis was discussed in detail mostly with the Congress president. Other leaders only knew about the options on the table for a debate.
In this backdrop, it’s significant that Kishor has restricted himself to a single, cautiously-worded tweet while turning down a seat on the high-table EAG. He comes across in the process as only having pushed the pause button, awaiting stronger signs of the political will he advocates to execute “transformational reforms” in the moribund party.
The time to pick up the threads might be after the Congress’s organisational polls slated for later this year. The best way to sum it up perhaps would be through that famous Bollywood line: Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost..”
HT’s veteran political editor, Vinod Sharma, brings together his four-decade-long experience of closely tracking Indian politics, his intimate knowledge of the actors who dominate the political theatre, and his keen eye which can juxtapose the past and the present in his weekly column, Distantly Close
The views expressed are personal
vinodsharma@hindustantimes.com
Ramzan, the month of so much fun in the days of the joint family, has passed this year in Delhi with Jahangirpuri as the bleak backdrop. Three of our sisters fasted while the non-fasting four brothers, me being the eldest, picked up the blessing almost as our birthright. The different approach to religiosity has something to do with our divergent schooling.
To keep the wolf from the door, the declining gentility of Awadh fell into deep thought about the next generation’s education. The family was divided down the middle on the subject of Western education. The conservatives, with abiding family affiliations to the Congress Party, insisted on an Urdu education. They saw their role model, Jawaharlal Nehru, as an Urdu-speaking, sherwani wearing (a rose in the buttonhole) Awadhi and a Kashmiri Pandit.
The progressives in the family, all Communists, invoked Nehru’s other persona — as a Fabian socialist with an open mind. Since my mother’s casting vote was with the progressives, the brothers were admitted to the La Martiniere College in Lucknow, a finer school than which would be difficult to imagine. In consigning the two sisters, who were chronologically my immediate youngsters, to Taleem Gahe Niswaan (Lady’s College), my mother was not letting down her gender — her role models were women of enlightenment: Dr Rasheed Jahan, Ismet Chugtai who by writing Angarey (embers) and Lehaf (quilt) had caused convulsions in the local clergy.
Boys were set on the path for careers; women would preserve traditions and look at the stars. By the time the third and youngest sister came of age, though, my parents had changed their outlook. Naheed was sent to the same school as the boys. In the long run, it didn’t seem to matter. Suraiyya, the eldest sister, topped her law, and Najma took up popular causes in Lucknow University. Sadly, Suraiyya’s admission to Berkeley and Najma’s study of Kathak were both scuttled by the conservatives. These accomplishments would obstruct them in the depleted marriage market.
The boys respected namaz and fasting, on which our sisters were firm. For ourselves, we had found an elegant escape route in our poets. Ghalib was just one of them.
It is a truth insufficiently propagated that there is not a single verse in Urdu where the mullah or the Islamic variant of the Salvation Army is praised — he is always the butt of derisive humour.
Not for a moment does irreverence mean opposition to the faith itself. It entails a critical, even satirical contemplation of its self-appointed intermediaries who were deemed to be of insufficient learning. The weaker the intellect, the greater the tendency to deviate from fact and logic into miracle and magic. The aalim, or the religious scholar, was always respected.
Even the most audacious poets never crossed certain red lines. An article of faith was: “Ba khuda deewana baash-o-ba Mohammad hoshiyar”. (Take liberties with God, but be careful with Mohammad).
Irreverence was an attitude to be sustained with some delicacy. Even an agnostic like Ghalib was cautious during the period of fasting. He snatches a “morsel of bread” here and a gulp of water there, as he admits in his letters. His furtive forays into food during Ramzan must have influenced our behaviour too, particularly in the large joint families. The 50 per cent who did not fast wore expressions of austerity for the benefit of those who did.
Cosmopolitan schooling ruptured traditionalism but it did not induce indifference to traditions, which had a world to commend them. In fact, Urdu culture was itself inherently urbane and cosmopolitan. A great deal of Urdu culture depended on the cultural derivatives of religion. Mir Anees, Nazeer Akbarabadi and Mohsin Kakorvi were the staple of this culture, just as Tulsidas and Malik Mohammad Jaisi were a part of it.
Just as Socrates misguided the youth of Athens, Ghalib did generations of Urdu poetry lovers, among whom was my maternal uncle, Saiyid Mohammad Mehdi, a gentleman to boot, erudite and a card-carrying member of the Communist Party in his youth. Towards the end, he did not mind The God That Failed, Arthur Koestler’s disappointment with the creed, as a book in my modest collection.
A Persian quatrain I picked from his circle of friends has remained with me as a whimsical calendar: “Ba har hafta, faaqa,/ Ba har maah, qae,/ Ba har saal mus-hil,/ Ba har roz mae”. (Weekly fast, monthly “kunjal” or vomit, yearly purgation and daily wine).
I have always wondered if this comes from the same school of Persian etiquette as Omar Khayyam’s code for drinking?
In the course of some litigation, Ghalib famously informed a magistrate that I am “half a Muslim” because “I drink wine but do not eat pork”.
That would be a misleading yardstick to compare me with, but I suspect my wife and I are conscientious hosts during Ramzan, making arrangements for saheri, the meal before the crack of dawn, and iftar, the meal after the day’s fast.
With ritual regularity I maintain another practice: I visit Jama Masjid at least for one saheri and iftar, if possible, with non-Muslim friends. These expeditions show a diminishing success rate. Some years ago, Lord Meghnad Desai and the late Swami Agnivesh accompanied me for saheri to Karim’s in the old city. I had anticipated Swamiji’s inhibitions and carried with me home-cooked vegetarian food which the management graciously served. In recent years, I have given up trying.
The Congress and election campaign specialist Prashant Kishor, whose company has done strategic communications for a host of political parties across ideology, should both count themselves lucky that they could not reach an agreement for Mr Kishor to join the party.
News reports suggest that the Congress rejected Mr Kishor’s terms. This is not wholly unexpected. People join a party because they are attracted to it, and wish to serve it in any capacity that the party may see fit. But that isn’t Mr Kishor at all.
He gave the impression of entering into a contract, as a trader might. If news reports are to be believed, he sought freedom to report directly to party president Sonia Gandhi, and sought untrammelled control over the party’s communications. When such ideas did not find favour, the consultant withdrew.
It is clear that he has no particular love for the Congress, and its ideas, ideology and politics. In contrast, look at the key members of the Group of 23. They have major issues with the Gandhis, but have not threatened to quit the party just because the leadership has not conceded their demands on a here-and-now basis.
It is evident the G-23 are not “gomashtas” (middlemen) but politicians who feel bound by a common ideological thread and imagination even if they might fight with the party leadership on organisational and political issues. Nevertheless, in the present context, while inner-party disagreements and debates might abound on organisational matters or economic ideology, there is consensus on the most important metric — the combating of communal ideas, politics, and policies. Mr Kishor does not shine on this count.
He has shown himself to be completely eclectic. His first client was the then Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi, in 2011. The poll strategist also planned the marketing and advertising for the Modi campaign when Mr Modi successfully ran for Prime Minister. He is credited with having conceived the aspirant’s 3D rallies and the social media campaign which highlighted good governance since the client had to be rescued from any association with the 2002 communal violence in Gujarat on the then CM’s watch which had drawn worldwide condemnation.
After that big success, Mr Kishor has been in huge demand. A range of political parties have evidently benefited from his counsel. These were generally local ruling parties. It is up for speculation if the consultant would have brought the bacon home for the Trinamul Congress if the West Bengal party had been in the Opposition. It is known that joining hands with Mr Kishor in 2017 failed to revive the Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh.
The trouble is that the Congress learnt little from that experience and once again sought to flirt with the election consultant. This was doubtless a sign of draining out emotionally after suffering defeat upon defeat in state elections. So, it should cause no surprise if Mr Kishor once again comes calling at the drop of a small hint. That is how fragile or fickle the Congress appears to have become in its present avatar.
The party forgets all too often that though it is greatly reduced, it is demonstrated to have some 120 million committed voters who have persisted in their choice through thick and thin. This is probably more than the numbers commanded by the principal regional parties put together, or thereabouts. Of course, support for the Congress is spread very unevenly across the country.
Generally, that does not give the party sufficient heft to ensure victory at the constituency level even for reasonably good candidates. What should the ground tactics be in such a situation? Is an external agent in the shape of a campaign specialist needed to solve the problem? Indeed, is the solution any mystery when the Congress’ ranks are filled with old warhorses at every level who have a well-earned reputation for having a trick or two up their sleeve in all seasons?
If the Congress Party still coheres in the Narendra Modi era when large parts of India are enveloped in the ideology of majority communalism, as daily events and election results lately indicate, the party can’t but have genetic resources that the leadership would do well to tap. That the leadership has failed to do so is the Congress’ primary weakness, and this is from where the first idea of reform needs to emanate.
Nevertheless, not fully grasping this, the leadership in its current state of perceived infirmity, could just seek the hand of God in an outside agent and turn to Mr Kishor yet again. But God is said to help only those who help themselves. If such is the case, and an outsider is permitted entry on terms, then failure may be said to be preordained, as in UP in 2017. The Congress will come out of it shaken and tarred, and the consultant is apt to lose his image built on the strength of advising winning parties. Both sides should resist the charms of such an alignment.
Partly because a modicum of the democracy ideology and good sense still inhabit the Congress, and partly under high-pitched pressure mounted by the G-23, otherwise a long-spent force that had once fattened on the patronage from the Gandhis, the Congress happens to be in the middle of an organisational election after decades.
This was before Mr Kishor entered the picture. Interestingly, the consultant too has reportedly advised organisational polls as a means to fight stasis within. In that case, what’s so special about external counsel?
As for Mr Kishor, he has successfully counselled only one-man/one-woman parties. When Mr Modi had hired him, the BJP too had become a one-man show, which it remains to this day.
The Congress, in contrast, is not a single-person party, despite all the appearances. In fact, it is a maze, a labyrinthine entity, in which multiple interests and groups operate, sweetly cutting one another even when in the Opposition. That indeed is one of its charms. The Congress is like no other party in the country and the Gandhis don’t really control it, although they may be its most important inner spirit. But that could well change if the country is at an inflexion point.
Jamnalal Bajaj, a major industrialist, had renounced the British title of “Rai Bahadur” to be a member of the Congress. In time, he became an elected member of the party’s Working Committee. Businessmen today seek shortcuts. The Congress Party too looks guilty of that.